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Afternoon roundup

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* My favorite Thanksgiving tradition…


* Here’s a shameless self promotion of my own White House photos from last year…


* Roundup…

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Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Welch to Republicans: Abandon extremism if you want a seat at the table

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Some recent news stories have centered on Republican hopes for “balance” in the new General Assembly. House Speaker Chris Welch talked to WGN TV about the topic

Q: Republicans say they’re not listened to, they’re not heard. So, as you move forward, is it, well, to the victor go the spoils, so be it? Or is there a way you want to involve Republicans towards unity? What areas can you collaborate with them on?

Welch: As I’ve always said, I think it’s extremely important that we work in a bipartisan way. We need to try to govern in the middle and I certainly hope that Republicans have learned the message of this election, and that is that the electorate won’t tolerate extremism. And if they’ve learned that lesson, we’re ready to do the work with them. We’re ready to sit down at the table and listen to everyone. We have to continue to move the state forward and I think you do it best when you’re working together and willing to compromise. What we have to bring back to politics and government is civility, respect, and the ability to compromise. And that’s where extremism has no place.

Q: Lots of change in the Republican Party, both leaders out for the House and the Senate. In come Rep. Tony McCombie [and Sen. John Curran] are in. Do you have relationships with them? How well do you know them?

Welch: I’ve served with both of them the last few years. I think they’re both honorable people. I think they’re going to be great leaders for their respective caucuses. And I certainly, again, hope that they try to move toward the center a little bit. They’re not gonna get much done if they operate on the extreme. They will have a place at the table if they’re willing to come and work toward compromise.

Q: So, work on the Democrats’ agenda and they’re welcome, but if not

Welch: No, I didn’t say that. Be willing to compromise. When you’re willing to compromise - we’re not going to get everything we want, either. But you can’t be extreme, either side, Democrats or Republicans. You move so much further when you’re working together. And so that hand will always be outreached and I’m looking forward to work with [both of the new Republican leaders].

Discuss.

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Fun with numbers

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois Policy Institute

Watchdog accountants are challenging Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s claims Illinois is on its best fiscal footing in years, arguing his five-year economic outlook report severely underrepresents the state’s looming long-term financial liabilities.

Experts with Truth in Accounting examined state financial reports to determine Illinois failed to pay $210.5 billion worth of its bills in fiscal year 2021, leaving each taxpayer responsible for $49,500 in debt. Illinois ranked third-worst in the nation, rating an “F” for fiscal management.

Illinois didn’t have $210.5 billion in pension bills last fiscal year. That’s like saying a homeowner should be ashamed of not paying off her 30-year mortgage in full last year.

Also, if you’ve ever taken out a home mortgage, you know that most of what you pay the first several years is basically just interest. You’re not paying off the money borrowed during that period of time, but you’re following the payment schedule drawn up by your bank. Kinda like the state’s pension ramp. And now, as I’ve been saying for a while, annual required state pension payments have finally stabilized, just about as projected back in 2018 [and 2017 and 2016].

* Back to IPI

Illinois pensions can be fixed, but not by feel-good distortions of the economic realities. Reforms are needed that are only possible by changing the Illinois Constitution.

The “hold harmless” pension reform developed by the Illinois Policy Institute would tie all pension cost-of-living adjustments to inflation rather than a fixed rate of annual growth, saving $50 billion by 2045. It would also increase required government contributions to fully fund retirees’ promised pensions rather than the current target of 90% by 2045.

Hilarious. Aside from the inflation aspect, now they’re for a tax hike? Because we all know how easy and painless it was to slash government spending when Bruce Rauner was governor. Also, when taxes were raised over Rauner’s veto, he spent every bit of the money.

…Adding… Dan Proft is listed as a member of Truth in Accounting’s board of directors on its 2020 990 form. Click here.

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a campaign update

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Our sorry state

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Heavy sigh…


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A quick look at turnout

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Derrick Blakley at the Center for Illinois Politics

“It doesn’t look like an unusually large turnout for an Illinois midterm election,” said Matt Dietrich, spokesman for the Illinois Board of Elections. “I’d estimate the statewide turnout at 50 to 51 percent.”

That’s far off the turnout for Illinois’ 2018 midterm which was 57.23 percent, the highest for a midterm election in 36 years. (In 2014, turnout was 49.18 percent; in 2010, 50.53 percent; and 2006, 48.64 percent.) Back in 1982, a whopping 65 percent of the state’s registered voters went to the polls in that year’s midterms. […]

There are 102 counties in Illinois, but the ten biggest voting jurisdictions (nine counties, plus Chicago which supervises its own elections) account for 61 percent of the state’s registered voters. Chicago’s turnout was 44.26 percent. In suburban Cook County, 43.87 percent. DuPage County turned out 55.25 percent (more on them later). But among the top ten most populous jurisdictions, the highest turnout came from the smallest locale. Sangamon County, which includes Springfield. IL, turned out 59.25 percent of its 135,336 registered voters. […]

DuPage County unofficially received 71,185 mail-in ballots, significantly more than the 2018 midterm election, but not close to 2020’s general election. In addition, 86,600 voters cast their ballots during the in-person early voting period. Of the county’s 342,399 ballots cast, 46 percent came in before election day. […]

It was too early for state election officials to break down the statewide vote by gender. But the Chicago Board of Election commissioners reported city voters at 55.21 percent female and 44.65 percent male. Female voters usually exceed male voters, but the extent of the disparity may be related to the power of the abortion issue in motivating women to get to the polls. […]

Unofficial figures from Chicago show that voters under age 44 made up 39 per cent of voters citywide. Chicago’s 1st Ward had 14,629 voters under age 44, the most of any ward in the city, which made up a whopping 73 percent of voters there.

* Related…

* The GOP did fine with Latino voters. But that wasn’t good enough: In Nevada and New Mexico, Democrats gerrymandered their Latino supporters — spreading them across numerous light-blue districts while packing GOP voters into just one seat. Republicans had hoped to win enough Latino voters to break through this gerrymander and clean up in Biden-leaning seats. They didn’t.

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Question of the day

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Hmm…


* The Question: Any suggestions for the Senator?

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Watch the bottom line, please

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration recently used its annual Economic and Fiscal Policy Report to outline three new budget proposals. The report revised projected revenues upward by $3.69 billion for this fiscal year, but noted that most of the projected increase was from one-time sources, like an unexpected spike in the state’s Income Tax Refund Fund of $1.28 billion.

The governor wants to use some of that cash to put another $1.3 billion into the state’s rainy-day fund, bringing the balance to about $2.3 billion. “While Illinois currently has its highest balance ever at $1.045 billion, Illinois is still among the smallest state rainy-day funds,” the report noted.

Pritzker also wants to set aside some money to pay off tobacco settlement revenue bonds issued in 2010. About $500 million is left on that debt, which was incurred to help the state make it through the Great Recession. And the governor wants to make an unspecified additional contribution into the state’s Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund, which still owes the federal government $1.345 billion plus interest.

Last spring, both the House speaker and the Senate president went all-in on budget stability and avoided creating new programs and adding big bucks to existing programs, which could eat into one-time revenue surges and force austere fiscal choices down the road when that temporary cash dried up and there was no other money to pay for anything.

As a result, Illinois’ credit rating was raised again, a real rainy day fund was finally established and hundreds of millions of dollars were invested in the state’s pension funds, above and beyond the statutory minimum requirements.

The recent report also projected some deficits down the road at the current revenue/spending pace. The deficits are relatively small as a percentage of the total state budget and they’re a drop in the bucket compared to projections made when Bruce Rauner was governor.

Back in 2016, almost two years after the temporary income tax was allowed to partially roll back, Fiscal Year 2022’s budget deficit was projected to be $6.5 billion with a whopping $47 billion bill backlog — almost $4 billion higher than total projected state spending that year. After a state income tax hike in 2017 and billions were pumped into state coffers and the economy by the federal government during the pandemic, Illinois ended up posting a surplus in FY22 and this fiscal year’s surplus is projected to be $1.689 billion, even after adding more money into the rainy day fund. But those newly projected deficits are still in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and that could very well force spending cuts.

The projected increase in budget pressures, by the way, have nothing to do with the state’s pension obligations. State pension payments are expected to be 20.1% of total expenditures this year, and they’re projected to be 20.1% of expenditures in five years. The pension obligation is still high (due to nearly a century of under-funding), but it’s finally becoming a whole lot more manageable.

I asked both the House and Senate Democratic legislative leaders last week to respond to Pritzker’s fiscal ideas. Both gave responses that could be considered in the “under review” category.

Senate President Don Harmon said through a spokesperson: “We share the governor’s focus on fiscal responsibility and rebuilding the economic stability of Illinois. We look forward to reviewing details with the administration.”

House Speaker Chris Welch told me during an interview last week: “We have said all along that we’ve made some great changes that have produced revenue for our state, and we continue to see revenue being generated. The outlook for our state is very positive. I’m so optimistic about our state, and that’s why you saw polling numbers that people believe Illinois is on the right track now — more so than they ever have. Do I agree with how the governor’s going to use the money? That’s for all of us to decide. We have to continue to use the agreed-upon process. That process has worked. And it’s certainly nice to know that the revenues are there.”

If we want to live in a more normal state, where we’re not constantly struggling to find a few extra dollars here and there or battling multi-billion-dollar deficits and bill backlogs, then the people who run this state’s government have got to continue matching revenues with spending.

If legislators and others want to spend more on long-term programs or to buttress existing programs, they have to either increase revenues or reduce other spending or both.

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Today’s number: 16 years

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I realized over the weekend that 2006 is the last time an elected Illinois governor was reelected in Illinois. 12 years ago was the last time any Illinois governor was reelected.

Discuss.

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Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Morning briefing

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* If you need help planning your holiday road trip, here’s a good start…


* A quick roundup to start your day…

More to come!

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Open thread

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Happy Monday! What’s on your Illinois-centric mind today?

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Live coverage

Monday, Nov 21, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Follow along with ScribbleLive


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* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards
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