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Morning briefing

Thursday, Dec 1, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Here’s the roundup…

       

16 Comments
  1. - Sox Fan - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 8:26 am:

    The slate article on abortion should be required reading.


  2. - Bothanspied - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 8:34 am:

    My coffee isn’t kicking in yet so this may be dumb. Why would a prisoner elect to be considered under the old cash bail system vs the new system?


  3. - Baloneymous - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 8:46 am:

    Oops Elon. not ready to play with the big boys just yet.


  4. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 8:47 am:

    With Chuy and Vallas in this contest this time, who again is the Lightfoot voter?

    You look at Lightfoot… and you see who could be the base Lightfoot voter, and I can’t, (and I haven’t been able to for 3 years) put my finger on a voting base for Lightfoot.

    I look at Vallas, but I especially look at Chuy… with 11 (until challenges start) candidates running, where does Lightfoot find her voters?

    WBEZ puts the idea of “who is where” in one place.


  5. - Arsenal - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:02 am:

    ==With Chuy and Vallas in this contest this time, who again is the Lightfoot voter?==

    Take this for what it’s worth from someone who doesn’t live in Chicago, but I always felt there was a big Protest Vote quality to Lightfoot’s election. For a lot of reasons, I don’t think that’ll be present this time (although it wasn’t evident in 2019 until Burke’s indictment, so who knows). The biggest reason is just that she’s the incumbent. You can’t rage against the machine and then vote for it. As things stand right now, I would imagine that a lot of that “clean up Chicago” vote drifts to other candidates.

    Still. Incumbency and a divided opposition are very powerful forces.


  6. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:02 am:

    ===where does Lightfoot find her voters?===

    Hers is a shifting coalition and it changes based on who else emerges. I think she will do well along the lakefront, within the gay community and wealthy white voters. I think she has made progress attracting more African American voters too.

    But it’s a fragile coalition and it’s far from a majority. Will it be enough to get her to the run off? I think so, but that is far from certain at this point.


  7. - H-W - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:05 am:

    With regard to the three articles referencing the SAFE-T Act changes, most of the clarifications are not problematic. Indeed, creating a fund to help State’s Attorneys do their jobs efficiently is a nice addition.

    I disagree however with one provision mentioned in two of the three stories (I do not subscribe to the Chicago Tribune).

    “Adding to the so-called detention net” - “Crimes that require jail or prison time and not probation.”

    That clause still presumes guilt, not innocence. For this reason, I think it an injustice, and immoral.

    It says if you might end up in jail, then you are going to jail. In essence, that clause would mean nothing changes at all. Any one arrested for any offense can be sentenced to jail. So in effect, it allows counties to jail suspects because they might be jailed.

    Here in McDonough County, a very rural community if 27,000, of which about 7,000 are students attending a State University, this means our WIU students will continue to be jailed initially, and continue to have to post bail to get out of jail, because our police arrest them for all sorts of minor offenses, that judges routinely assign jail time so as to offset the time they initially serve awaiting trial.

    In effect, this clause will mean nothing changes in my county. Students will continue to be thrown into jail for minor offenses (some are jailed for walking home from the bars). Judges will continue to find them guilty of being drunk in public and/or jaywalking. Judges will assign jail time equivalent to the time already served so as to justify the fact that they were jailed.

    In the end, it means we at WIU are recruiting students in part, to maintain the bars through their patronage, and to fund the jail that detains WIU students when they walk home from the bars, for being drunk.


  8. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:07 am:

    ===In essence, that clause would mean nothing changes at all===

    Read the bill, not a TV report.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:12 am:

    ===there was a big Protest Vote quality to Lightfoot’s election.===

    I do think Candidate Lightfoot round beat Msyor Lightfoot… and that’s a big problem for an incumbent Lightfoot who looks very little like the candidate that won 4 years ago? Good stuff. The right thoughts.

    I agree, 100% too, to this and where I think it’s at…

    ===Hers is a shifting coalition and it changes based on who else emerges. I think she will do well along the lakefront, within the gay community and wealthy white voters. I think she has made progress attracting more African American voters too.

    But it’s a fragile coalition and it’s far from a majority.===

    … and why I asked the open ended question;

    If there’s this fragile coalition that can and does exist, and “today” it only can get her to that runoff against… whomever…

    … can an incumbent Lightfoot find 50% in a one-on-one, holding that fragile coalition… as her initial ad is “hey, yeah, I made mistakes, but…”?

    It’s a fascinating look-see at an incumbent who doesn’t resemble what they ran on, or more pointed “ran as”… what base voter in a fragile coalition can Lightfoot count on… twice?


  10. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:24 am:

    ===an incumbent who doesn’t resemble what they ran on, or more pointed “ran as”===

    There’s that. But I also think the people who will vote in the election may be moving away from populism.

    The city was doing well four years ago. People felt they could experiment with something new.

    To many, the city just doesn’t work now.

    And so we might be seeing a shift to wanting management over constant conflict. Tackling problems instead of tackling rivals. Creating successes instead of creating angst.

    A candidate with a message of fixing very real, everyday problems instead of fittin’ to fight could end up doing well, IMHO. She’s not that person, although she does appear to have latched onto that message of late.


  11. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:29 am:

    ===what base voter in a fragile coalition can Lightfoot count on… twice?===

    Voters who do not want the Democratic Socialists to gain more ground in Chicago. Those voters may be split between candidates now, with Vallas getting a lot of this support by default, but they could rally behind her if she and Chuy emerge in the run off.

    Seems to me that Chuy’s campaign understands this and I’d expect him to try to appear as moderate as possible.


  12. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:32 am:

    ===appear as moderate as possible===

    That, and competent. And non-threatening.


  13. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:39 am:

    ===A candidate with a message of fixing very real, everyday problems instead of fittin’ to fight could end up doing well, IMHO. She’s not that person, although she does appear to have latched onto that message of late.===

    Agreed. Although I think she’ll get a boost from her response to COVID on the competence issue.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 9:40 am:

    ===Seems to me that Chuy’s campaign understands this===

    This, all day.

    If that intro video is any indication, that’s the sweet spot.

    === ===appear as moderate as possible===

    That, and competent. And non-threatening.===

    People are tired of fighting.

    Rauner, Trump, Lightfoot, there has been this constant “battle”… for battling’s own sake.

    Competencies and calmness… for an incumbent in these times is huge, and Lightfoot needs that reset.


  15. - H-W - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 10:09 am:

    Thanks Rich, for the reminder.

    It took a while to find it again, but I read the amended version of Sec. 110-6.1. Denial of pretrial release.

    Assuming this is the same section you were thinking about, I see nothing in this section that is problematic. There is one part where the offenses are not specifically listed (5), but in all other cases, the offense for which a person may be required to remain in jail are reasonable.

    So my students are safe. Sorry about the emotion work.


  16. - MattB - Thursday, Dec 1, 22 @ 10:22 am:

    Concerning the AWB..

    “I think there will be attempts to challenge all of these pieces, but the language is based on what has existed and been upheld and withstood legal scrutiny both in Illinois and other states,” Morgan said.“

    This is untrue. Bruen clarified the test that should be used to evaluate Second Amendment challenges, and the two step test that has been used in the past to evaluate and uphold AWB is gone. Morgan is referring to bad case law at this point. Assault weapons bans will not survive under Bruen and I wonder if Illinois Dems realize that.


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