* Heather Cherone at WTTW…
U.S. Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García is the “front runner” in the race for Chicago mayor, according to a new poll commissioned by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 obtained Monday by WTTW News.
“Chuy Garcia is the frontrunner today in the race for Chicago mayor, leading Mayor Lori Lightfoot by 7 points in the first round and 31 points in the second,” the poll concludes. “He is the most popular candidate for mayor and is the favorite to win.” […]
Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who has the backing of most of Chicago’s progressive organizations, the Chicago Teachers Union and the Service Employee International Union Local 73 and SEIU Healthcare Illinois, is largely unknown. More than 70% of Chicago voters do not have an opinion on his candidacy, according to the poll.
More than 70% of voters rated crime and public safety as their No. 1 or No. 2 most important issue, with no other issue coming close, according to the poll.
* OK, let’s focus on crime and public safety. Here’s how the polling question was asked…
Of the following, which would you say is the most important issue in Chicago for the Mayor and City Council to address?
You will recall that crime was not a huge issue for voters in the fall campaign except in Chicago, where it consistently ranked at the top of the list. But now, when the question is about what city leaders should be doing, it has rocketed up even further.
57 percent said their number one issue was “crime and public safety.” Affordable housing and homelessness was second, but it came in at just 10 percent.
As noted in Heather’s article, when you combine respondents’ first and second choices, crime and public safety came in at a whopping 71 percent. Affordable housing and homelessness was still second at 24 percent. Again, when you combine 1st and 2nd choices together, schools and education were next at 22 percent, inflation and rising costs were at 19 percent, taxes were at 17 percent, jobs and the economy were at 14 percent, government corruption and ethics were at 11 percent, racial equity was at 10 percent and roads and infrastructure were at 7 percent.
Also of note, respondents were read favorable talking points about some of the candidates and then they were asked to reevaluate their votes. The needle barely moved on any of the candidates.
* I was asked not to post the poll itself, but here is the polling memo…
• Garcia is in first place, ahead of Lori Lightfoot and Paul Vallas. In a full, ten-way vote Garcia comes in first with 25% followed by Lightfoot (18%), Vallas (14%), and Wilson (10%), while 14% are completely undecided. No other candidate garners more than 10%. Garcia leads with Latinos, leads among both college-educated and non-college whites, and is tied for second with Black voters (32% Lightfoot / 18% Garcia / 18% Wilson).
• Garcia is broadly popular across groups. He is broadly popular with white (53% fav / 32% unfav), Black (58% fav / 21% unfav), and Latino (60% fav / 30% unfav) voters. His support spans ideology, with good numbers among self-described progressive Democrats (74% fav / 12% unfav) and moderate/conservative Democrats (50% fav / 31% unav).
• Lori Lightfoot is deeply unpopular. Voters rate her job as Mayor negatively by 40 points (29% positive / 69% negative). 84% of white voters and 72% of Latinos rate her job as Mayor negatively, while Black voters are closely divided on her (50% positive / 48% negative).
• In a runoff, Garcia leads Lightfoot by a whopping 31 points (55% Garcia / 24% Lightfoot). He is tied among Black voters, up 52 among whites, and up 40 among Latinos. He leads her in the Lakefront (+52) and on the Northwest side (+51).
* More runoff results…
Lori Lightfoot 38%
Willie Wilson 37%
[VOL] Undecided 24%
Lori Lightfoot 34%
Paul Vallas 41%
[VOL] Undecided 25%
Lori Lightfoot 24%
Chuy Garcia 55%
[VOL] Undecided 21%
Lori Lightfoot 31%
Pat Quinn 37%
[VOL] Undecided 32%
Quinn has dropped out, but I included him to give you an idea of how unpopular Lightfoot is, except maybe when it comes to Willie Wilson.
…Adding… Wanted to front-page something I wrote in comments…
Just because people say public safety is a top issue, that doesn’t mean they’re siding with Dan Proft and Darren Bailey’s version of how to deal with crime.
The people in the city and elsewhere are generally ahead of the mainstream media on this topic. It ain’t the 1990s any longer. And addressing it is not an either/or choice.
- Roadrager - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 9:38 am:
Paul Vallas at 14%? Where was this poll conducted, Anonymous Chicago Cop Twitter?
- Chicagonk - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 9:43 am:
Chuy will be really tough to beat. Not sure what the CTU was thinking endorsing Brandon Johnson.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 9:45 am:
To the post,
Crime can and will be a much larger and piercing factor in the Chicago mayoral election.
“Why?”
It’s local. It’s all things local too. Mayor, alderman, these folks are dealing with the day to day operations of running a municipality. Policing, streets, sanitation, parks, schools, you look at the running of a city, there’s no other level of governing to crime then the local, on the ground officials, and the polling to local, real issues resonate and deliver.
Ask Mayor Bilandic about city services…
Crime is a city service of policing and protecting Chicagoans.
Not surprised by the polling number, nor will I be surprised if it *IS* the major issue… local politics almost demands the scrutiny to it.
- 48th Ward Heel - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 9:53 am:
They kinda tucked away the CTA in “roads and infrastructure,” huh? Crime is a big problem that everybody’s talking about, but I wonder how the poll would look if they straightforwardly asked about making the trains run on time.
- Socially DIstant watcher - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 9:58 am:
We heard crime was the top issue in the recent elections; mayor’s ain’t governors, but I still have wonder how accurate that is. People often tell pollsters what they think they’re supposed to say and not what they really think.
- Give Us Barabbas - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:01 am:
Watching Chicago tv news leaning heavily into any crime stories regardless of their relevance to the city at large, gotta wonder if it distorts perceptions.
- Jump - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:01 am:
I said it before, lori will go down as the worse mayor in chicago history.name mee one, just one accompmishment she can run on.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:03 am:
===People often tell pollsters what they think they’re supposed to say ===
OK, but also, just because people say public safety is a top issue doesn’t mean they’re siding with Dan Proft and Darren Bailey’s version of how to deal with crime.
The people in the city and elsewhere are generally ahead of the mainstream media on this topic. It ain’t the 1990s any longer. And addressing it is not an either/or choice.
- Chicago Born - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:04 am:
Folks from outside the city should be forgiven for underestimating how poorly mismanaged the Chicago Police Department has been under the current administration. They aren’t witnessing how bad things have gotten around here.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:07 am:
===We heard crime was the top issue in the recent elections===
I told you it wasn’t. Repeatedly. Not my fault you chose instead to listen to goofballs.
- Excitable Boy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:11 am:
- just because people say public safety is a top issue doesn’t mean they’re siding with Dan Proft and Darren Bailey’s version of how to deal with crime. -
Agreed. Chicago ranks near the top of police officers per capita and their record on actually solving crimes is abysmal.
We need a drastically different approach.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:11 am:
Willy has it right. Crime is an important issue in Chicago, but it’s a local issue. Voters are smart enough to know that, and to know that a pro-gun downstate farmer from a county with 13,000 people wasn’t going to have the answers to complex urban crime problems (if he even cared, which was debatable).
- Betty Draper’s cigarette - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:22 am:
=== I said it before, lori will go down as the worse mayor in chicago history.name mee one, just one accompmishment she can run on.===
Nope.
That would be Richard J Daley who was mayor in 1974 when homicides rose to 970 victims. Chicago has never seen that number again. I’m afraid Lightfoot will have to settle for the number two spot.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:28 am:
-Paul Vallas at 14%? Where was this poll conducted, Anonymous Chicago Cop Twitter?-
No Daley in this time, and the pro-cop angry white guy vote is split fewer ways this time around.
- Betty Draper’s cigarette - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:29 am:
It’s funny to me that all those issues are linked. Want to stop crime? Focus on affordable housing, helping the homeless and mentally ill, get kids better education so they can get better jobs, get better infrastructure so people can get to the better jobs, get rid of lead pipes so children’s brains aren’t poisoned to act impulsive, etc.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:43 am:
===Chicago ranks near the top of police officers per capita and their record on actually solving crimes is abysmal. We need a drastically different approach.===
Yep.
- Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:45 am:
That sound you hear is Lori’s campaign team digging trenches World War 1 style because that’s the only she’s going to win. Going into the mud and getting everyone dirty.
Tribal politics at its finest.
Not impressed with any of the candidates. But it’s time for change and I’d vote for Chuy. I’m looking forward to turnout numbers, I think it’ll be high.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:48 am:
Betty, if you can smoke while you write, the City can handle crime and all those other things you listed at the same time. It’s not one or the other.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:50 am:
Least surprising statement in the article: “Lightfoot is deeply unpopular with Chicago voters”.
Not sure where she goes after this gig is over. Would any big Chicago law firm give her a job? Could Biden appoint her as ambassador to nowhere? Perhaps the Bears front office could use some more bad advice?
- vern - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 10:56 am:
=== Not sure what the CTU was thinking endorsing Brandon Johnson ===
Ehh. The Johnson-Chuy race feels more like a negotiation than an election at this point. I’ll be pretty surprised if Johnson and Buckner both stay in through Election Day.
- northsider (the original) - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:01 am:
These numbers partially explain why Lori decided the public isn’t allowed to listen to the police scanner anymore. Out of hearing-out of mind?
- NIU Grad - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:04 am:
CTU backing another candidate is the best thing Chuy has going for him. With deep distaste of the constant strikes, that endorsement is a kiss-of-death in city-wide elections.
- Betty Draper’s cigarette - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:05 am:
=== These numbers partially explain why Lori decided the public isn’t allowed to listen to the police scanner anymore. Out of hearing-out of mind?===
Many municipalities do the same thing to keep criminals from knowing what the police are doing. The public is able to hear what the police are saying with a thirty minute delay.
- Banish Misfortune - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:06 am:
Thinking about the role of temperament and of experience in government. Lori did not have bad ideas- but I supported Preckwinkle because of experience. Ideas are not enough, you have to be able to govern and not be so reactive. Some newcomers manage ( Pritzker) but most simply do not. (Trump Rauner).
- Lincoln Lad - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:09 am:
Chuy needs to get some candidates to drop so he can win without a run off. I’m sure conversations are ongoing, and deals are being offered.
- Future - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:14 am:
Didn’t ask about utility bills.. interesting
- Anon324 - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:15 am:
==Want to stop crime? Focus on affordable housing, helping the homeless and mentally ill, get kids better education so they can get better jobs, get better infrastructure so people can get to the better jobs, get rid of lead pipes so children’s brains aren’t poisoned to act impulsive, etc.==
None of these would “stop” crime any more than mass incarceration does. Yes, those things need to be addressed if you want any meaningful long term solutions. But it will do next to nothing to make people in 2023 feel safer doing things like walking near Grant Park on a summer evening or standing on a red or blue line platform.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:17 am:
===like walking near Grant Park on a summer evening===
If you spent a summer’s evening in or around Grant Park, the Mag Mile, it’s not like those places were empty.
- Joe Bidenopolous - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:18 am:
Whew, I knew LL was unpopular (everyone I know hates her but we aren’t representative of the city), but if these numbers are even in the ballpark of accurate, she’s toast
- Chicagonk - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:23 am:
@Vern - This poll makes it pretty clear that Chuy doesn’t need CTU to make the runoff. Also the CTU has gotten a lot more radical with Jesse Sharkey at the helm. Jesse probably thinks Chuy is a conservative.
- Chicagonk - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:26 am:
I need to edit my post - Stacy Davis Gates is now head of the union instead of Jesse Sharkey - I still think CTU made a political error.
- Regular democrat - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:42 am:
Claiming Vallas only support is angry pro cop white people is nonsense. That his only base? Just silly.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:44 am:
===Claiming Vallas only support is angry pro cop white people is nonsense. That his only base? Just silly.===
Ok. Example?
Not taking sides, frankly I’m always puzzled to the real or imagined Lightfoot base voters or constituency.
So… have at it, “Claiming Vallas only support is angry pro cop white people is nonsense. That his only base? Just silly.”
Example?
- Jerry - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:45 am:
Crime is an issue but someone needs to ask:
When Federal Welfare runs out in 2025, who’s paying to keep transit running (and NOT just in the city)?
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:45 am:
the Nov.26 issue of The Economist has an article about crime in Chicago “Anybody’s thing Disorganised crime Chicago Organised crime is much less organised than it was.” This is a piece that begins with a discussion of the Archer and Kenzie car meet that turned into a shootout. The article talks about gangs, their leaders in prison, how gangs don’t function the same way now, and quotes an FBI agent. Spontaneous shooting is the thing. How to solve that is a big issue. Absent big leadership the underlings turn to violence quickly. It’s scary.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:48 am:
Plus Mayor Lightfoot will likely be known as the one who lost the Bears. But a big part of the blame goes Richard M and his free stadium giveaway.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 11:51 am:
I’m only guessing the police are furious over the verdict with LeQuan.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:07 pm:
==Not sure what the CTU was thinking endorsing Brandon Johnson.==
That not endorsing one of their own employees was a bad look for a labor union.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:18 pm:
WaPo has a piece up on line now which I have not yet read but which seems interesting and something to look out for with crime in Illinois. fentanyl and how it gets to places like Utah with the cartels reaching into places one might not expect. We can talk Chicago crime but there are big drug problems that happen in lots of places and people losing their lives to poison.
- Steve - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:22 pm:
Stacy Davis Gates first official move as president of the CTU is a flop. Not a good look for her leadership, abilities as a strategist, or brand with other politicos. You would think someone would reel her in from the deep end. She is rapidly sinking and taking others with her.
- TimO - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:22 pm:
Competency on crime is more likely the main issue for everyone I know. They want a plan… and to not to have to talk/worry about it incessantly.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:26 pm:
=just because people say public safety is a top issue doesn’t mean they’re siding with Dan Proft and Darren Bailey’s version of how to deal with crime=
Probably because their solution, as far as I can tell, was rooted in “back the blue” platitudes. Kind of hard for residents to swallow given the lousy track record of the Chicago PD.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:28 pm:
-Claiming Vallas only support is angry pro cop white people is nonsense. That his only base? Just silly.-
After his 5% showing last time, it’s almost as silly to say he has a base.
- Lincoln Lad - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 12:55 pm:
When Quinn chose Vallas as his choice for Lt Governor, the election was lost. Why anyone believes Vallas is a meaningful candidate is beyond me. The election will again prove that.
- Telly - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:02 pm:
We’re a long way from 1983 race-based voting patterns in Chicago, but still, Vallas is the only white candidate in the race. Trump got 15 percent of the vote in Chicago — it’s reasonable to think that’s Vallas’s base. In a crowded field, 15 percent gets him within spitting distance of the runoff. The big problem for Vallas is building on that base requires him not to be seen as “the Republican candidate” for mayor. If he can somehow navigate that dichotomy, he’s got a chance. I wouldn’t bet on him, but I wouldn’t completely dismiss his candidacy either.
- Bob Cobb - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:07 pm:
Really don’t understand the people that so casually write off Vallas because “he only got 5% of the vote” in 2019…Lori Lightfoot only got 17% in round one and was the top vote getter. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Vallas pulls a lot Daley and Joyce voters and makes the runoff with ~ 20% of the vote. I’m not saying its gonna happen, but its definitely not inconceivable
- Betty Draper’s cigarette - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:11 pm:
=== But it will do next to nothing to make people in 2023 feel safer===
2023 is only a few days away. You want instant gratification. I want it to. I’m a big fan of instant gratification. I want to stop crime today and then eat a whole deep dish pizza and then fit into my little black dress.
Problem is, we are already doing the short term solutions. The long term solutions are what’s left. So let’s do those.
(If you know a short term solution nobody’s tried yet that will magically reduce crime, e-mail the mayor and tell her about it. I’m sure she’d appreciate it.)
- Early voter - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:12 pm:
Rahm Emanuel and Lori Lightfoot were both seen as the Republican candidate for mayor.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:15 pm:
===Lori Lightfoot … the Republican candidate for mayor.===
Candidate Lightfoot ran as one that was going to be the opposite of how Mayor Lightfoot has governed.
Ignoring that isn’t at all understanding the duality problem Lightfoot seemingly has now.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:17 pm:
So Vallas running to Lori’s right, Johnson running to her left, and Chuy hoping to capture the middle.
I think there is still a path for Lightfoot to make it to the runoff, and then it’ll be an entirely new campaign. We find out soon enough, but I think this poll is reasonably accurate.
- Nick - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:28 pm:
Lightfoot didn’t really have an ideological bent to her 2019 campaign sans “vaguely progressive” and “I’m not the machine.”
Though her entire mayoralty has been beset by her vehemently opposing things she previous supported or seemed okay with. Probably the worst was her spiking a plan to make Metra cheaper in the Southside because Preckwinkle was behind it.
- ChicagoBars - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:38 pm:
If any pollster wants to slide in favorable/unfavorable questions about CPD Superintendent Brown and CPD generally in their next paid Chicago poll project that might be edifying.
- City Zen - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:44 pm:
==It’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Vallas pulls a lot Daley and Joyce voters and makes the runoff with ~ 20% of the vote==
Safe to say he’ll also convert all Fioretti votes. Every 1% counts when attempting to reach the runoff.
Don’t forget the Chico/Mendoza voters. I think there’s a bit of crossover for Vallas there as well.
- TimO - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:50 pm:
Lightfoot’s dumbest move was not firing brown after labor day. It was the summer from hell, and instead of addressing it, we were gaslit every monday morning with “crime is down” stats. I bet it will be the decision that costs her the office.
- @misterjayem - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 1:56 pm:
“roads and infrastructure were at 7 percent”
I’m very curious what the response would have been if the CTA had been mentioned by name.
The decline and fall of Chicago’s public transportation is a ticking time bomb.
– MrJM
- NIU Grad - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 2:17 pm:
“Safe to say he’ll also convert all Fioretti votes.”
A geyser of support there…
- Roadrager - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 2:28 pm:
==Safe to say he’ll also convert all Fioretti votes. Every 1% counts when attempting to reach the runoff.==
Or, since we’re talking about Bob Fioretti, every 0.8%.
- ChicagoVinny - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 2:33 pm:
As a citizen my crime and safety concern is about CPD not doing its job. Their clearance rate is abysmal. They get more resources than many cities and seem to do little with them. Something has to change with that department.
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 2:37 pm:
===They get more resources than many cities and seem to do little with them. Something has to change with that department===
The same could be said of CPS.
- West Sider - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 3:08 pm:
Lightfoot, like Emanuel, and ironically like both Daleys is a “Reform” Mayor- she was never a “Progressive”. Some of her supporters and especially the media misunderstood- and she was happy to have them do so.
Like Emanuel a portion of her reforms have been worthwhile- the Council is both more independent, and also less like 50 principalities. Build South/West is a shift in priorities which will pay dividends long after she’s gone.
Because she will be gone- next April. Lightfoot is Rahm- without the boyish charm. She had a moment- remember the “Stay Home” memes? They humorously captured her humorlessness. We kind of liked her for a moment. That was a long time ago.
- Lakeview Lib - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 4:44 pm:
So true. Reformers and Progressives are not necessarily the same thing. At least not recently. There is some overlap i.e. Progressive Reformers. But a good percentage of Reformers in Chicago are actually pretty conservative. That is why they rant incessantly about the “Machine” ad nauseum. It is because they don’t like the idea of the Democratic Party being in charge.
- New Day - Tuesday, Dec 13, 22 @ 4:50 pm:
I’ve said this before and I’ll keep saying it until I’m proven wrong in February. The runoff will be between Chuy and Vallas. LL is so remarkably unpopular and her current campaign shows she has no clue what’s really going on in this City. Vallas is the only white guy and he’s also going to be very popular with the white working class crowd as well as those who find his authoritarian approach to management appealing. Chicago has a history of liking strong leaders and Vallas fits into that mold despite his recent flirtation with FoxNews/John Kass. And since he’s right about the need to fire Brown and completely revamp CPD, he’s likely to get a lot of traction.
P.S. I don’t like Vallas and wouldn’t vote for him.