* I’d much rather be Vallas than Johnson at this point, but the frontrunner can’t seem to get over the hump despite outspending Johnson 2-1, unless people are lying to the pollsters…
…Adding… Important point from Emerson…
When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, and the vote is accounted for, Vallas’ lead over Johnson increases to six points, 53% to 47%.
Oof. There it is.
* More…
* As we all saw last year, crime has been the top issue in Chicago for quite a while now…
* Interesting…
Six in 10 voters (61%) feel there is more crime in Chicago today than there was a year ago, while just 8% feel there is less crime.
When asked who they trust more to handle the issue, a majority (54%) chose Vallas. 38% of likely voters say they trust Johnson to handle crime, while just 9% trust both equally.
Both men have made their backgrounds in education a major selling point on the campaign trail. When asked who they trust more to handle education in Chicago, 48% of those polled picked Paul Vallas, 41% trust Brandon Johnson, and 11% trust both equally.
Regarding city finances, 50% trust Vallas’ vision, 37% trust Johnson.
If crime is the number one issue, and voters trust Vallas 54-38 over Johnson on that issue, then that is horrible news for Johnson’s campaign.
* Johnson has to do a lot better than this with Black voters or he’s doomed…
* Vallas’ favorable rating is 56 and his unfavorables are 36. Johnson’s fave/unfave is 53-40. So, Vallas has the edge there as well.
* More from Emerson…
“Of those who feel there is more crime in Chicago than there was a year ago, 59% are voting for Vallas and 27% Johnson,” Kimball noted. “Of those who think there is the same amount of crime, 60% plan to support Johnson and 27% Vallas.”
* Crosstabs are here.
* The Hill…
The data, however, reveals a stark demographic divide in the mayoral runoff; 58 percent of young voters — those between 18 and 24 years old — favor Johnson, while Vallas performs better among voters 50 and over, drawing 52 percent support.
And men are also leaning toward Vallas, with 52 percent saying they plan to vote for him over Johnson. Women, meanwhile, are more evenly split; forty-three percent say they’re backing Johnson, while 41 percent are supporting Vallas.
Seems obvious that Johnson has to solidify his support among Black voters and lock down more votes from women in order to win this thing.
- NIU Grad - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:01 pm:
Vallas is definitely going to have more people who are going to vote for him, but are cautious about saying so because of all his GOP baggage.
- Montrose - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:04 pm:
“Vallas is definitely going to have more people who are going to vote for him, but are cautious about saying so because of all his GOP baggage.”
Even to a pollster? That is a sincere question. I get someone being sheepish to say it to friends that they think might judge them, but a pollster?
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:05 pm:
Does Vallas have a low ceiling? Very likely.
The ceiling only needs to be 50% plus one.
The older voters’ turnout might be the deciding factor, as the younger (under 25) voters haven’t been (given the first round voting) engaged.
- 47th Ward - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:07 pm:
Johnson has boots on the ground. That gives him a tremendous advantage.
- Arsenal - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:12 pm:
==Vallas is definitely going to have more people who are going to vote for him, but are cautious about saying so because of all his GOP baggage.==
This seems more like a hope than a fact. If you want to vote for Vallas, you’ve got two huge name Democrats giving you cover to do so. You don’t have to hide it.
It’s more likely that his vote share is about what you see in the polls- and that’s a lead, so I’m not sure why we have to guild the lily.
- twowaystreet - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:15 pm:
If Vallas wins, I look forward to Bailey and Durbin rubbing shoulders at the victory celebration.
- Anon324 - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:20 pm:
Not a lot of positives to take from that poll if you’re on the Johnson team.
- tuff guy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:24 pm:
Blacks will all break with Johnson, pretty normal to see high undecided there. This things over
- Rich Miller - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:24 pm:
Anon324, yep. He has to hope that Black voters break much harder his way and that women voters finally come around. And even then…
- Big Dipper - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:25 pm:
==but are cautious about saying so because of all his GOP baggage.==
Not a great sign when you are embarrassed about who you voted for. Maybe they should listen to their consciences.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:26 pm:
===When undecided voters are asked which candidate they lean toward, and the vote is accounted for, Vallas’ lead over Johnson increases to six points, 53% to 47%.===
So, if you tell me that “24 and under” are going to be as low as the first round, the “55 and over” continues to dominate the ballot percentages of total cast, Johnson needs a huge GOTV in black wards carried by Lightfoot and younger voters that turn out in a wave.
I will be very interested in Lightfoot carried wards which of these two carry the day there.
- granville - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:29 pm:
What does your mailbox look like? I would guess I’ve gotten 6 to 8 mostly positive mailers that are pro-Vallas (most timed around endorsements). Haven’t seen anything from Johnson. Maybe it’s my zip code?
- Back to the Future - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:36 pm:
Like @grandville I have gotten 4 mailers from Vallas and nothing from Johnson.
I have also gotten 3 phone calls from Vallas team and nothing from Johnson.
Perhaps it is my zip code or ward.
- twowaystreet - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:45 pm:
==Perhaps it is my zip code or ward.==
Maybe or it could be the massive difference in the amount of money each candidate has to spend.
- Southside Cubs - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:46 pm:
Nothing like leading Democrats in IL endorsing a Profty to be mayor of Chicago. You would think that all those promises this past cycle about “fighting to make IL a safe haven for women and reproductive rights” would include fighting against a candidate who is on the record saying they are “fundamentally opposed to abortion”….
Totally understand concerns over Brandon Johnson’s ability to do the job, but to endorse Vallas after the rhetoric that every Democrat screamed last cycle is laughable.
- Demoralized - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:50 pm:
==but to endorse Vallas==
Something has them convinced that he isn’t going to govern anywhere near like some of the rhetoric that he has put out there
- Been There - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:53 pm:
==== If crime is the number one issue, and voters trust Vallas 54-38 over Johnson on that issue, then that is horrible news for Johnson’s campaign.====
I agree 100% with your last point Rich. Johnson is toast otherwise. Vallas on the other hand keeps pounding out the same message about defunding the police. As he should since it’s the top issue. But if he can hit Johnson hard on one other issue (not sure what that is) soon that will be the one-two punch and it’s over.
- Pundent - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 4:56 pm:
=Something has them convinced that he isn’t going to govern anywhere near like some of the rhetoric that he has put out there=
And Johnson’s policies, for many reasons, are non-starters and he’s acknowledged that there is no plan B. So it’s either believe that Vallas won’t govern like his rhetoric or put your trust in a guy who likely doesn’t have a plan. As has been said many times, not great choices.
- Been There - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:00 pm:
==== Nothing like leading Democrats in IL endorsing a Profty to be mayor of Chicago.====
While I agree Vallas is conservative I don’t think he should be considered as far as Proft. There are many, many people who are in the center and he is appealing to them, even if the far right will also be for him. It’s a fair question to ask who Vallas will be appealing to after Election Day. But the City Council is pretty far left now and if he wants to get anything done he will best remember that if he wants to get anything done.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:03 pm:
===While I agree Vallas is conservative I don’t think he should be considered as far as Proft.===
That’s fun.
The radio stint as a guest host is in conflict with your assessment.
- Stormsw7706 - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:07 pm:
Emerson is a decent polling outfit but they do tend to skew conservative. I do think Vallas will win but it’s going to be a squeaker. Honestly I feel Chicago will be better off with the other one of them.
- DriXander - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:07 pm:
Since folks commenting on the mail universe had one perspective, wanted to offer another: Live in a diverse Northside ward. The regular Latino voter in our household has gotten two bilingual Brandon Johnson mailers, one pro with Chuy, one contrast piece. The Black woman hasn’t gotten any mail, but Black folks of various genders I know in Black wards are getting multiple Brandon Johnson pieces.
- Rudy’s teeth - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:08 pm:
When CPD vehicles are parked in the middle of Michigan Avenue with lights flashing, when CPD cars are parked near Walton and Rush Streets, when a CPD vehicle is parked near the Red Line and the local grocery at Clark/Division…yes, crime is an issue in this election.
- ZC - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:10 pm:
Whereas I’ve gotten very little mail from Vallas and a ton from Johnson, relatively. Which strikes me as smart targeting (maybe) from Team Vallas, if they know enough to write me off they are doing their job electorally.
- Big Dipper - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:11 pm:
==Something has them convinced that he isn’t going to govern anywhere near like some of the rhetoric that he has put out there==
So then his voters turn on him and he is the new Pence?
- PublicServant - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:17 pm:
That is how I see it too, @Been There
- Been There - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:20 pm:
==== That’s fun.
The radio stint as a guest host is in conflict with your assessment.====
Well there is that.
He definitely is right and not just middle. But for anyone in the middle I guess most would gravitate toward Vallas.
- Huh? - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:23 pm:
“Something has them convinced that he isn’t going to govern anywhere near like some of the rhetoric that he has put out there”
(Checking for watch, rings, cellphone, and wallet) still got ‘em.
Something similar was said about a former president. How’d that work out?
While I can’t vote for vallas, I won’t trust him to improve the city. His record as CPS CEO demonstrated his lack of accountability and inability to build a consensus for what he needed to do. Earmarking pension funds for the GRF caused a $1 billion budget crisis.
Valas is going to be Lightfoot 2.0, not only that but a republican’t version.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:28 pm:
===I guess most would gravitate===
“Likely”?, but it still assumes facts not in evidence
It’s as likely, however, as recognized black wards won by Lightfoot, most would gravitate to Johnson, but again, assumed facts not in evidence
- Candy Dogood - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:28 pm:
This is setting Brandon Johnson up for a fantastic narrative in the event that he does win.
===The radio stint as a guest host is in conflict with your assessment. ===
I kinda forgot all about that.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:36 pm:
I think Ald. Burnett was saying Vallas needed 25% of the black vote. He has that now in this poll without any undecideds. I would say it leans Vallas if I had to predict.
I think a lot of the anti-Vallas oppo appeals to very online Democrats that may not really represent the electorate even in a municipal election. Meat and potatoes government service appeals are getting lost in this messaging even though Johnson has some good ideas there.
- Chicaguy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:43 pm:
==Blacks will all break with Johnson, pretty normal to see high undecided there. This things over==
If all 20% of the undecided Black voters went to Johnson, based on this poll which has Black voters as 35% of the total voters, that would represent a ~7% improvement for Johnson, which gets him up to 48%. If all the 12% of Latinx undecided voters went to Johnson, based on they’re being 16.5% of the total sample, that would represent a 2.2% increase. That gets him to 50.2%. If all 8% of undecided white voter breaks for Johnson, that’s about a 1% increase (whites = 43% of sample). So in other words if every single undecided Black, white, and Latinx voter breaks for Johnson, based on this poll, he’d get 51.2%.
The polling is too wacky in these local races tho so I refuse to bank on their predictive power.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:48 pm:
===If===
Big word, that “if”
Wasn’t there a steadfast rule of 2/3 or 3/4 of “undecided” going to your opponent in any generic polling “thingy”, kinda giving eyes to a realization that breaking undecideds should only be measured as trends are identified?
A real trend is this ceiling Vallas has. The trend is a stalling but in actuality could be measured as a solidified base?
- dr. jimmy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:52 pm:
19 and 41 will put up massive margins that will be a firewall for vallas. johnson will get single digits in those wards, and turnout there will be staggering. the mountain of votes that johnson will need to overcome from those two wards will be insurmountable.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:54 pm:
===will get single digits in those wards===
The over/under for Johnson in 19 and 41 is “9.9”?
Lemme think on that one…
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 5:58 pm:
Ok… Brandon Johnson…
February 28th, nine candidates.
19th Ward … 9.62%
41st Ward… 7.3%
I might be inclined to take the “over”
- Ashland Adam - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 6:30 pm:
Johnson will get at least 20% in 19.
- Sue - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 6:47 pm:
Chicago is changing. Hispanics out number African Americans and will dominate future elections starting with this one. Just as Democrats seem to minimize their significance on the national level- it seems the same is happening here. Why when Hispanics outnumber Blacks did the City
council refuse the effort to add two Hispanic council seats. If Vallas wins the election with the support of Hispanic voters- the folks who are ignoring changing demographics are going to look awfully foolish
- Tammy - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 7:09 pm:
== Johnson will get at least 20% in 19. ==
Yep. It’s about a quartet Black and has a small core of progressive whites. Mt. Greenwood is just a section of 19, not the whole ward.
- Pundent - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 7:19 pm:
=Hispanics out number African Americans and will dominate future elections starting with this one.=
And yet Chuy Garcia ran a distant 4th.
- KnopeWeCan - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 9:27 pm:
“ Like @grandville I have gotten 4 mailers from Vallas and nothing from Johnson.
I have also gotten 3 phone calls from Vallas team and nothing from Johnson.
Perhaps it is my zip code or ward.”
It is. I have gotten 4 anti-Vallas mailers from Johnson’s campaign and only 1 pro-Vallas mailer.
- Amalia - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 9:34 pm:
Brandon’s people need to sharpen the focus. I just read a multi tweet thread about how to know if a progressive should not vote for Vallas. they are so deep into the weeds of lots of info. Find the most effective bits, blast on Black radio, move through the CWBChicago noise in Lakeview, and get the women of the Lakefront on the same page. Focus.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Mar 27, 23 @ 11:10 pm:
The people of Chicago prefer someone reasonably experienced in failure over someone with the exceptional high potential of it.
- TinyDancer(FKASue) - Tuesday, Mar 28, 23 @ 12:54 am:
Still dislike both of them.
But I guess I’ll just have to hold my nose and…..vote….for someone.
- granville - Tuesday, Mar 28, 23 @ 1:12 am:
Interesting feedback on the mailers. The reason I mention it is I can’t recall a candidate totally zero’ing out at the mailbox, all the way back to Joe Gardner, if not earlier. And if we’re not getting pro-Johnson materials I at least expected anti-Vallas stuff.
It’s incredible to remember that every ward voted for Lightfoot four years ago, and now if replies here are much indication we’ve got candidates bunkering down in “home” wards. Probably a good strategy but still a depressing reality of where we’re at.
(For the record: Voted Chuy 1st round, still undecided now.)