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That toddlin’ town roundup
Tuesday, Apr 4, 2023 - Posted by Rich Miller * You could hardly get more different results if you tried. As the crosstabs show, this IZQ poll vastly differs with the Victory Research poll on men and on race. VR had Vallas up by 13 points among men. The IZQ poll has them tied, 48-48. VR had Vallas leading among whites 76-19, the IZQ poll has Vallas up by just 10, at 54-44. VR had Johnson up among Black voters 76-20 with 3 percent undecided, but this IZQ poll has Johnson leading 64-22 with 14 undecided. VR had Vallas up 50-43 among Latino voters, while this IZQ poll has Vallas up by 17 points. Also, the VR poll had the two tied among those who had voted and had Vallas leading 50-43 among those who hadn’t yet voted, while this poll had large Johnson leads among early voters and had Vallas leading by just 4 points among those who were waiting until today. And, according to this poll, Vallas is still stuck at 45..
* Meanwhile…
* And…
…Adding… Heh…
* Isabel’s roundup… * Tribune | Election Day in Chicago: Voters will choose Brandon Johnson or Paul Vallas as city’s next mayor, with a tough job awaiting the winner: Vallas, a 69-year old former schools chief, has long been a critic of the Chicago Teachers Union that Johnson helps lead, asserting the union’s work stoppages during the pandemic harmed children’s well-being and hurt their growth for generations. Johnson, 47, regularly paints Vallas’ approach to public education as “morally bankrupt” for his promotion of private school vouchers and expansion of charters across the country. * Sun-Times | Chicago Runoff Election 2023: Live results, voter reactions and news updates: Try not to hold your breath for the final outcome. The winner may not be known for days. “I highly doubt either camp will concede on election night because up to 100,000 votes may not be counted when we go to bed on election night,” said pollster Matt Podgorski of M3 Strategies, whose polling correctly placed the top four finishers in Round One of the mayoral sweepstakes within roughly half a percentage point. * Tribune | Early voting is up in runoff compared to February but overall voter turnout remains unclear: Through Sunday night, about 155,000 people voted early in person, while 95,000 had turned in their mail ballots for a total of nearly 250,000 ballots cast. In the February election, the total number of ballots cast two days before Election Day was a little more than 211,000. After all mail ballots were counted, February turnout was 36%, slightly higher than both rounds of the 2019 election, but lower than the 2011 election and the runoff in 2015, when it was 41%. * NBC Chicago | 7 City Council Races to Watch in the 2023 Chicago Runoff Election: The race to replace Ald. Roderick Sawyer was closely-watched throughout the campaign, and William Hall and Richard Wooten earned spots in the runoff, finishing just 71 votes apart. Hall was endorsed by Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker in the first round of voting, and also received support from the SEIU and Chicago Teachers Union. * Tribune | Chicago’s runoff election: Everything you need to know about races for mayor and aldermen: In the 14 races for City Council that have not yet been decided, six involve incumbents who didn’t exceed the 50% threshold, three of whom Mayor Lori Lightfoot recently appointed to the seats. * ABC Chicago | Chicago Election 2023: Full coverage of mayoral race, city council seats and more: As of about 9 a.m., there have been 304,090 total ballots cast, a 19.1% total citywide turnout so far. * Crain’s | Keep a close eye on these signals in today’s mayoral vote: So far, turnout in early and mail-in ballots has been significantly higher than in the past two mayoral general elections. That likely helps Vallas since Johnson has a much better field operation that Vallas needs to offset by having big numbers of voters turn out on their own. That’s also the main reason why polls and political insiders are giving Vallas a small edge. But if the weather tomorrow is as bad as the weather folks say — damaging storms with high winds and pelting rain are in the forecast — turnout could drop. But if the storms don’t hit until, say, 4 p.m. — or if more people vote early today — it may not matter. * Politico | The final hours of Chicago’s too-close-to-call mayoral runoff: The issues of crime and policing have dominated the runoff election, which was necessary because no candidate earned a majority of the vote in the first round of voting back in February. Vallas (33 percent) and Johnson (22 percent) finished first and second, respectively, while Lightfoot (17 percent) was eliminated after a third-place finish. * South Side Weekly Op-Ed| There is No Ethical Path to Voting for Paul Vallas: This election is not rare in having two imperfect candidates squaring off. It is rare because the battle we face is rooted in the eternal American debate about race and our history, and carries huge implications for the future of our country. In this debate, there is no ethical path that allows a vote for Paul Vallas. * Sun-Times | Rep. Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia’s daughter, 28, dies: “Last night our beloved daughter, Rosa, passed away at the age of 28. We are completely heartbroken,” Garcia said. * Chalkbeat | Chicago staffs fewer National Board certified teachers as it pushes to grow their ranks:A Chalkbeat analysis found the overall number of board-certified teachers has decreased steadily, even as the number of educators Chicago Public Schools employs has grown. About 1,000 of the district’s more than 22,000 educators are board-certified, down almost 30% since 2016. * WGN | Police payouts soaring in city of Chicago: The city of Chicago has paid more than $578 million since 2016 in judgments, settlements and legal fees relating to claims of police misconduct. It is a staggering figure but observers say taxpayers aren’t done paying yet. They predict millions of dollars more will be spent as legal cases relating to a notorious former officer wind through the courts. * Block Club | Greektown Starbucks Workers Win Union Election, Become Chicago’s 8th Unionized Shop: The Greektown cafe is the eighth unionized shop in Chicago and one of more than 250 unionized shops nationwide. A ninth unionized shop in Edgewater closed in October right as workers were scheduled to begin contract negotiations. * Sun-Times | Firefighter killed, 2 others hurt at extra-alarm fire in West Pullman: Pelt joined the Chicago Fire Department in 2005 and was based on the South Side his whole career, according to Nance-Holt. He had celebrated a birthday in March and just walked his older daughter down the aisle. She was on her honeymoon at the time of the incident. Pelt’s younger daughter is 6 years old. * Block Club | Midtown Athletic Club’s Cleaning Staff Spoke Out About Safety Concerns. Then, 33 Workers Were Fired: A member of the Bucktown gym joined protesting workers this weekend. “I ask Midtown, why not show the same care and respect to your employees that you show for your members?” * Chicago Mag | A Very Daley Tour of Bridgeport: What’s the point of being mayor if you can’t guarantee yourself the best police and fire protection? The police station on the corner of Daley’s block housed the limousine that drove him to City Hall every morning and the squad car that guarded the alley behind his house. The police district has relocated to a modern building on Halsted Street, but the firehouse remains. * WTTW | Family-Owned Chicago Flag Company Has Been Supplying Symbols of Civic Pride for 108 Years: “We were here long before TV, we were here long before radio. W.G.N. Flag and Decorating Company, since 1916 and named after the family. Yeah, unfortunately those media outlets have nothing to stand on. I love ‘em but we were here first,” said Carl “Gus” Porter III. “The company actually started by my great grandfather purchasing a stick flag from a street merchant, walking down the street, and selling it for twice what he paid for it.”
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- Amalia - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 10:57 am:
this is off from all other polls. I still believe Vallas will win, although the excitement is with Brandon. his supporters are legit into it, with real love for their candidate. Vallas supporters seem to support him from fear.
- Forever906 - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 10:59 am:
Vallas is not going to win the white vote by 50, but he’s going to win it by a heckuva lot more than 10. IZQ is a legit pollster, but their numbers are so different than Victory, Emerson, and NU that it tells me they are just making different assumptions about the turnout model and the electorate.
They may be right! But if Johnson wins Inhighly doubt it will be by 5.
- Jerry - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:01 am:
Will it be Closeted Republican Vallas or the Democrat Brandon Johnson?
- Big Dipper - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:06 am:
The 41st Ward has a Republican alderman (there are others but he openly admits it) yet they have embraced VBM.
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:08 am:
Yes, just as I have been predicting, Vallas by +5. The early turnout numbers Calabrese posted only confirms this for me at least.
- Big Dipper - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:08 am:
Condolences to Chuy Garcia and his family.
- lake county democrat - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:09 am:
My sense is that young voter turnout is Johnson’s only chance, but that one tweet indicates that it might be happening. Young turnout bucked historical patterns in the 2022 midterms - if it makes a surprise showing here and other places (eg Wisconsin), you wonder if it’s a trend (which would be very bad news for an elderly-heavy GOP, and not so great news for more centrist/establishment dems in big cities).
- Anon 11:10 - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:10 am:
=Vallas supporters seem to support him from fear.=
Yes, Amalia, you’re right. But fear could cover a lot of ground.
“Fear” of rising crime?
“Fear” of businesses fleeing the City due to a hostile 5th floor?
“Fear” of defunding the police? “Fear” of putting their faith in a person in which the largest thing he managed was a classroom, and only for 5 years?
“Fear” of Toni Preckwinkle pushing her desk across the 5th floor hallway separating the City and County Building?
“Fear” of the CTU getting keys to the city?
The fear for which you speak is justified and not a disqualifier. I don’t think Brandon Johnson has accomplished enough in his short public office reign. We tried the unprepared, ill-equipped “fresh” perspective with the current occupant. The voters clearly felt her administration was a mistake and they shouldn’t make it twice. I am no fan of Paul Vallas, but as the saying goes: I’ll take the devil I know vs the one I don’t.
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:10 am:
Oops Cancel my comment. I read the poll wrong
- Torco Sign - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:17 am:
–Vallas supporters seem to support him from fear.–
Yes, nobody instills fear like Jesse White and Dick Durbin.
- Montrose - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:24 am:
If it is too close to call tonight, that favors Johnson, assuming the pattern of mail-in ballots favoring him carries over from the February election.
I really hope whomever wins/loses does the work needed to mend things after this incredibly ugly elections. I really don’t want another four years of a Lightfoot-style administration.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:25 am:
I’m pretty skeptical of text-to-web polls. I might have gotten this text and ignored it. There seems to be a lot of selection bias in these polls. I know there is selection bias in all polls. This seems most likely to represent a set of likely voters excited about the election rather than a truly random selection of likely voters. Also, what about elder people who are not as comfortable with cell phones?
- The Truth - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:33 am:
I’ve thought Vallas had it in the bag until I saw the age spread on voters, and how much younger today’s voting population is compared to February’s.
This is looking really, really close. As in “we need to count all the VBMs to declare a winner” close.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:35 am:
It is adorable folks giving the Bernie Epton “before it’s too late” thinking… because…
Pritzker needs to save us from Bailey, but Bailey needs to save Chicago from Johnson.
It’s like the dog whistles hope that no one notices that embracing the worst elements in politics is being embraced by Vallas.
- Big Dipper - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:43 am:
==Also, what about elder people who are not as comfortable with cell phones?==
They’ve been around 30 years and most people have embraced them. How do you think seniors access FB all day?
- uialum - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:49 am:
Kind of amazing that the Mayor is still using a city phone subject to FOIA for campaign texts
- Lucky Pierre - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:54 am:
What is actually adorable is someone from a town that is 78% white pretends the Chicago residents who choose to live in a city that is only 36% white are the racist thinkers
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 11:55 am:
==Yes, nobody instills fear like Jesse White and Dick Durbin.==
Exactly. Them and folks like Sophia King and Rod Sawyer are part of some far right dog whistle campaign or are “Daleyites”. Even though Daley defeated Gene Sawyer in 1989, he must be a Daleyite also since he supports Vallas.
- Istanbul not Constantinople - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:02 pm:
I just don’t understand why people say Lori is unlikeable.
- Chicago voter - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:02 pm:
IZQ crosstabs make zero sense. Vallas only up by 10 among white voters? Give me a break.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:03 pm:
===Yes, nobody instills fear like…===
Darren Bailey, Ives, Proft?
It’s inconvenient, I know.
- Chicago voter - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:04 pm:
I expect a result in between what the two recent “independent” polls are predicting. Note that IZQ is owned by a known Johnson supporter and works with other campaigns that support Johnson. Not exactly “independent” - and I say this as a Johnson supporter myself. Victory isn’t exactly independent, either.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:10 pm:
===What is actually adorable is someone from a town that is 78% white pretends the Chicago residents who choose to live in a city that is only 36% white are the racist thinkers===
Statistics or not, explain the Vrdolyak 29, or the current FOP Prez, or that - Lucky Pierre - seems to back Vallas… “before it’s too late”
No one denounces Proft, Ives… I mean… Democrats told me that Pritzker was saving Illinois from Bailey… but it’s nuance when thise same racist thinkers like Ives supports Vallas… “nuance”?
There’s a reason the sad joke of Chicago is there only “one map”… and Chicago is one of the most segregated cities in America… to this day.
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:11 pm:
==It’s inconvenient, I know.==
LOL. and yet you ignore the people mentioned.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:15 pm:
=Darren Bailey, Ives, Proft?
It’s inconvenient, I know.=
If Vallas wins it will truly be one of the most bizarre coalitions that I’ve ever witnessed. But then again we are talking about Paul Vallas, a guy who makes chameleons jealous.
- Lakeview Lou - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:17 pm:
If you take the polling average and split the undecideds Vallas pops up over 50%. Johnson’s superior ground game and supporter enthusiasm will be able to counter that and get the extra 3% he needs to win. If I was bettering I would take Johnson winning by less then 6,000 votes.
- IrishPirate - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:25 pm:
I’m unsure where the youth vote surging story came from. Chicago Board of Elections Twitter account says something different as of ten minutes ago.
Chicago Board of Elections
@ChicagoElection
·
8m
Ballots Cast By Age Group:
18 -24: 10,796 ballots cast – 2.96%
25-34: 51,746 ballots cast – 14.19%
35-44: 58,410 ballots cast – 16.02%
45-54: 56,421 ballots cast – 15.48%
55-64: 67,657 ballots cast – 18.56%
65-74: 68,948 ballots cast – 18.91%
75+: 49,269 ballots cast – 13.52%
- Forever906 - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:29 pm:
== I’m unsure where the youth vote surging story came from. ==
It’s up as a share of the electorate by ~4% compared to the first round so far. That’s good for Johnson but not a huge surge or anything, and certainly isn’t enough to take as a sign of victory for him.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:34 pm:
===and yet you ignore the people mentioned.===
I dunno why you’re laughing, it’s a self own that it’s fine to embrace someone who courts the worst elements “because they say”
All I heard for years… Democrats would never… yet here Dems are?
It’s like you are … well, you are worried about AOC…
- IrishPirate - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:37 pm:
Ok, thank you Forever906. It’s up. Now I see it.
I’m feeling the Brandonbern or something.
As you said it’s good for Brandon Johnson.
It would be interesting to see various ward turnouts compared to February.
- Steve - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:48 pm:
This election could come down to mail in votes and the weather today.
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:50 pm:
Ald Anthony Beale, David Moore, Derrick Curtis, Emma Mitts who all endorsed Vallas are part of a racist conspiracy as well? Or you going to ignore them as well?
- Amalia - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 12:52 pm:
those people mentioned act from fear, including fear of loss of influence. the message of the Vallas commercials and more blatant hangers on is take back our city. it’s gross.
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:00 pm:
Or, shocker, they may actually think Vallas is a better candidate based on their years of working with him. I tend to take them at their word of why they endorsed Vallas and not make assumptions.
But at least you have a vote in the election.
- Rogo - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:02 pm:
===Johnson’s superior ground game===
How is this so?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:05 pm:
===Or, shocker===
(Sigh)
If you seriously and honestly can’t comprehend what the word “coalition” means, that’s first… and second… “Democrats would never”… but now are aligned in a coalition with these worst elements they’d never align with… maybe you don’t understand your own biases and why you’re concerned about “AOC” and those types.
It’s seemingly blind bliss now to the same folks that people lectured Republicans for embracing.
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:16 pm:
==maybe you don’t understand your own biases==
And you dont think African American alderpersons can endorse someone without without ulterior motives.
Who’s biased?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:25 pm:
===And you dont think African American alderpersons can endorse someone without without ulterior motives.===
I have no idea what that even means, lol, it’s like looking for cover more than understanding the politics of ANY alderperson … making no waves, backing no losers.
This all seems blinding to you.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:27 pm:
===What is actually adorable is someone from a town that is 78% white pretends the Chicago residents who choose to live in a city that is only 36% white are the racist thinkers===
… and yet your support of Trump, Bailey, and now Vallas is mere coincidences?
Of course you’d back Vallas, you supported each and every Bailey policy thought since he came the nominee
lol
- low level - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:27 pm:
You not only don’t have a vote, but your privilege is showing. Talk about a self own.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:29 pm:
===Anthony Beale, David Moore, Derrick Curtis, Emma Mitts who all endorsed Vallas===
How many go back to “Daley”… Beale, Mitts…
This isn’t *that* difficult.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:31 pm:
===but your privilege is showing===
LOL, friend, Vallas *is* the privileged candidate.
Between the LaSalle Street folks, Gery Chico types, the Daleyites, of course they’ll use the Bailey types to help Vallas, it’s a “win” back to the Daley days.
- Chicaguy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:42 pm:
OW, bro, we get it, you’ve gotcha’d the Vallas supporters because they’re democrats but hated Bailey.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 1:49 pm:
“bro”?
It gave me a chuckle.
- DuPage - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:02 pm:
Finally heard who Kim Foxx endorses on the radio today. She endorsed Johnson.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:05 pm:
A reporter wondered/asked if Vallas is the new Democrat standard [should he win], that Biden should follow in his re-election campaign. Being a secret right winger is not a successful recipe at all for Democrats, who are making great successes here and in Michigan. If anything, Vallas would have to toe the line in heavily Democratic Chicago and Illinois state government rather than the opposite.
But then again, Vallas is a “lifelong Democrat” with liberal values. Never mind.
- Lakeview Lou - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:07 pm:
@rogo Johnson’s field team has knock over 500,000 doors, made over 800,000 phone calls, and sent over a million text messages mainly with volunteers. Vallas hasn’t done anything close to that and his field operation is mostly paid. That’s Johnson’s superior ground game.
- Anon 2:09 - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:09 pm:
=Finally heard who Kim Foxx endorses on the radio today. She endorsed Johnson.=
Profile in courage. Waits until 30 minutes before the polls close to endorse.
- Big Dipper - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:28 pm:
==Waits until 30 minutes before the polls close to endorse.==
Is your clock broken or are you day drinking?
- Anon 2:30 - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:30 pm:
=Is your clock broken or are you day drinking?=
I wish. But as literal as you appear to be, one must admit my point is fair.
- The Truth - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:38 pm:
==Johnson’s field team has knock over 500,000 doors, made over 800,000 phone calls, and sent over a million text messages mainly with volunteers. Vallas hasn’t done anything close to that and his field operation is mostly paid. That’s Johnson’s superior ground game.==
I saw Johnson say those numbers on TV, and I gotta say: they’re almost unbelievable. Not impossible, just…truly impressive if true.
- Steve - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:46 pm:
-Not impossible, just…truly impressive if true.-
If the Brandon Johnson operation did much of those contacts in the Hispanic wards: that could make the difference.
- ChicagoBars - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 2:48 pm:
=Is you clock broken or are you day drinking?=
Whoa, whoa, whoa a moderate beer at lunch is a fine Chicago Election Day tradition (insert banned punctuation).
- Don’t Worry, Be Happy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 23 @ 4:12 pm:
The early vote data and polling really stands out to me. The heaviest early voting is in areas that I expect Vallas to do very well in, so if Johnson is leading or even just breaking even among those voters, then Vallas in a lot of trouble.