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GOP poll has Sorensen up by 9 points, but below 50 percent

Tuesday, Jun 18, 2024 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Politico

A NEW POLL has Democratic Congressman Eric Sorensen leading Republican challenger Joe McGraw in the competitive IL-17 District.

By the numbers: Sorensen is at 44 percent to McGraw’s 35 percent, according to an internal poll from 1892 Polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee and McGraw’s campaign.

POLITICO’s Morning Score by Madison Fernandez scooped the poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters June 8-12. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Bull’s eye: National Republicans are targeting Sorensen’s seat, which leans Democratic. As drawn today, IL-17 would have voted for President Joe Biden over Donald Trump by around 8 percentage points in 2020.

* From the poll

Competitive Political Climate: In a generic Congressional ballot, the Republican and Democrat are tied 40-40%, while 20% of voters are undecided. In 2020, Biden carried IL-17 by +8%. Now Biden is only +1%. The degradation of Biden’s image, ballot, and job approval has downstream effects driving a shifting political environment and creating a Republican opportunity in IL-17.

More…

Crime, the border and inflation/interest rates are McGraw’s core issues so far. The campaign claims their talking points are moving numbers, but they didn’t release even the broad topics they polled.

Americans for Prosperity Action made its first Illinois general election congressional endorsement since 2018 when it backed McGraw this month.

* From US House Speaker Mike Johnson’s recent Peoria visit

Johnson appeared along with 16th District U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood and 17th District candidate Joe McGraw ahead of the Tazewell County Republican Party’s Lincoln Day Dinner on Saturday.

McGraw, a retired judge, faces Democratic incumbent Eric Sorensen in November. Freshman Sorensen last won the seat with a 52-48 margin, filling an open spot left by retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos. Bustos had also won decisive elections in the swing district, which elected her while also voting for Trump.

Johnson believes, despite a funding gap between the candidates, this election will be different. He calls Sorensen a “radical leftist.”

“I think [17th District voters] are going to look for somebody who is a grownup to represent them,” said Johnson. “Somebody who has a great resume and will be a great leader and, I think, will represent the real interest and values of the people in the district.”

* Sorensen attended a reopening event today for the Peoria abortion clinic that was firebombed in 2023. Press release…

Planned Parenthood of Illinois (PPIL) is pleased to reopen the newly renovated Peoria Health Center, 2709 N. Knoxville Ave, over a year after it was severely damaged after a firebomb attack in early 2023. The Peoria Health Center suffered extensive damages costing over $1 million to rebuild, depriving the community of essential sexual and reproductive care for over a year. Today, PPIL held a ribbon-cutting ceremony and press conference with Regional Director of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Michael Cabonargi, Congressman Eric Sorensen, and Illinois State Senator Dave Kohler to unveil the new state-of-the-art facility.

“After so much hard work and determination by our neighbors, I’m excited to celebrate the reopening of the Peoria Planned Parenthood Clinic. What happened in January of last year was a tragic example of what happens when extremism comes home. But extremism will never, ever play in Peoria. We are a more resilient people than ever,” said Congressman Eric Sorensen. “ I’m proud of the commitment of our Peoria community, Planned Parenthood of Illinois, and our local law enforcement who have worked so hard to deliver justice and get our clinic back up and running to serve our neighbors, protect abortion access, and safeguard our freedoms.”

       

5 Comments
  1. - @misterjayem - Tuesday, Jun 18, 24 @ 2:03 pm:

    “Sorensen attended a reopening event today for the Peoria abortion clinic that was firebombed in 2023.”

    If you’d asked me this morning, if have said there’s no chance that I would donate to a candidate in this race, but now…

    – MrJM


  2. - Annonin' - Tuesday, Jun 18, 24 @ 2:28 pm:

    Speaker Johnson attended an event that barred the media, so the LaHoods could be themselves. Slick


  3. - Occasionally Moderated - Tuesday, Jun 18, 24 @ 2:30 pm:

    He lost me at “radical left”.

    Cheri represented our district well. Sorenson seems to be growing into those big shoes nicely.


  4. - Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Jun 18, 24 @ 3:18 pm:

    Postmodern republicans think anyone that’s not a nationalist is a “radical leftist.” Also, nine points down in a race lost by 4 points in 2022 is not a poll I’d be spreading around in hope of fundraising.


  5. - Capitol Observer - Tuesday, Jun 18, 24 @ 4:04 pm:

    Republicans in Illinois are about to see a Tsunami with Trump at the head of the ticket and the state party fighting each other like kids.


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