* Background is here if you need it. Bloomberg…
The outcome of what was, until recently, an obscure US power market auction will be the subject of intense interest this week for electric generators, regulators and consumers alike.
The results due late Wednesday will confirm what PJM Interconnection LLC — the nation’s largest grid operator, serving millions of Americans from Chicago to Washington, DC — will pay power generators to secure capacity starting in 2027. The bill is expected to reach $17 billion, according to a Bloomberg survey of grid experts, policymakers and traders. That would mark the third consecutive year of record-breaking costs, as the swift build-out of data centers is adding billions of dollars to household utility bills.
The PJM auction has emerged as a barometer of US energy inflation, with this week’s results likely to stoke increasingly heated public discourse about affordability. Surging utility bills are already shaping up to be an issue in the congressional midterm elections next year: Despite President Donald Trump saying electricity prices would be halved within a year of taking office, costs have increased. Just last month, Democrats won elections in New Jersey and Virginia — two states within the grid’s territory — as well as in Georgia, after campaigning to lower power bills.
While the so-called capacity auction is just one component of total electricity costs to consumers, it’s one of the fastest growing due to skyrocketing demand from artificial intelligence that’s straining power supplies. Data center electricity consumption accounted for 45% of the price tag in the last auction, according to Monitoring Analytics LLC, PJM’s official independent watchdog.
* Speaking of data centers, the Data Center Coalition sent me a statement today about this week’s state report citing a growing likelihood of power shortages in Illinois and throughout much of the country significantly due to data center growth and retirement of fossil fuel plants (many of which were uneconomical and aging out anyway)…
The U.S. data center industry provides significant benefits to Illinois and communities across the state where data centers operate— creating thousands of high-wage jobs, providing billions of dollars in economic investment, and generating significant local and state tax revenue that helps fund schools, transportation, public safety, and other community priorities. Data centers support more than 115,000 jobs and generate $1.8 billion in tax revenue in Illinois, according to PwC. Data centers are also the backbone of the 21st-century economy, with unprecedented growth in demand from individuals and businesses for the digital services that data centers enable.
The Data Center Coalition is currently reviewing the 2025 Resource Adequacy Study. While grid planning and management are ultimately the responsibility of utilities, grid operators, and regulators, the data center industry is committed to leaning in as an engaged partner to help ensure we collectively meet this critical moment. Data centers are also playing a leading role in advancing clean energy; in 2024 alone, data center companies were responsible for half of all corporate clean energy procurement nationally. DCC members are also investing in innovative solutions including nuclear power, carbon capture, and other sustainable approaches.
The data center industry remains committed to paying its full cost of service for the energy it uses. Reports from states like Virginia and Arizona confirm we’re delivering on that commitment, and a new report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory shows that adding data centers and other large load customers to the grid can even help lower energy costs for other customers.
We look forward to continued engagement with the Illinois Commerce Commission, utilities, grid operators, and other stakeholders in advancing a reliable and affordable grid for all customers.
* Meanwhile, in New York, here’s Politico…
New York officials solidified a major shift toward energy affordability and reliability Tuesday — and moved away from a focus on achieving ambitious climate targets.
The State Energy Planning Board, controlled by Gov. Kathy Hochul’s appointees, approved the 2025 state energy plan at their meeting Tuesday morning. It’s New York’s first energy plan in a decade and has served as a vehicle for Hochul’s pivot toward an “all of the above” strategy.
“An all of the above energy approach isn’t simply a choice, it’s our reality,” Rory Christian, chair of the New York State Public Service Commission, said during the planning board meeting Tuesday. “New York recognizes the need for investments in infrastructure to keep the system stable during this transition, and we must do so affordably.” […]
The 2025 energy plan doesn’t foresee hitting 70 percent renewables until sometime between 2036 and 2040. New York’s 2019 climate law calls for 70 percent by 2030.
Similarly, the new plan doesn’t envision meeting the overall emissions reduction targets set in the 2019 law. That called for a 40 percent reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2030 and net zero, with an 85 percent actual reduction, by 2050.
* Illinois Manufacturers’ Association…
“We didn’t need a 222-page report to tell us what we already know – Illinois is facing an energy crisis resulting from the forced closure of dispatchable baseload generation and growing demand. If skyrocketing power bills were not warning enough, this new report is a flashing red sign that Illinois needs to act immediately. With electricity demand only expected to increase, we simply cannot risk the chaos that would be caused by the premature closure of baseload generation plants as required under current law,” said Mark Denzler, president & CEO of the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association. “We urge the General Assembly and the Governor to repeal these closure dates and work instead to bring more generation facilities online, including nuclear, gas, and renewable energy, invest in transmission lines, and support technologies like battery storage. If Illinois is to maintain safe, reliable and affordable energy crucial to businesses and families, it will require an all-of-the-above approach that recognizes the seriousness of this moment.”
* The Illinois Clean Jobs Coalition…
“While the results of the Resource Adequacy Study report show challenges ahead, we foresaw these trends emerging and are thankful the Illinois legislature took the first of two necessary actions to address these challenges by passing the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability (CRGA) Act this fall. Illinois will begin completing an Integrated Resource plan next year – a critical energy planning tool that will help the state develop a responsible energy plan to meet these challenges with new, cost-effective clean energy.
“The next critical step is to pass commonsense guardrails for data centers – the primary driver of the unprecedented energy demand that is saddling Illinois consumers with rising utility bills while dirty energy companies make record profits. ICJC looks forward to working with legislative leaders and stakeholders in the spring legislative session to ensure data center developers, not Illinois consumers, pay for the disproportionate energy burden big tech is bringing to our power grid and keep in line with Illinois’ national leadership on climate by powering these facilities with clean energy.”
Discuss.
- Mason County - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:01 pm:
Governors of various states need to get together to discuss this issue. These rate hikes are largely a State rather than federal issue.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:03 pm:
===These rate hikes are largely a State rather than federal issue. ===
Just the opposite. It’s happening everywhere. States cannot individually control this, even if a few get together.
- Nebuchadnezzar - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:10 pm:
I was listening to a podcast a few years back on how electricity was too cheap for anyone to “fix” and make it even cheaper for the avg consumer. Seems like AI has pushed us to the brink. Utility bill reached upwards of $600-700 last summer. It’s an old house, yes, but I know I’m not alone in the strain on what feels like an extra mortgage payment each month. Almost welcomed the cold weather this year.
- Think again - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:13 pm:
=retirement of fossil fuel plants (many of which were uneconomical and aging out anyway)=
Sort of a self-fulfilling thing as CEJA banned municipal coal power plants and called for a carbon-free power grid by 2045, resulting in the closing of all fossil-fuel power plants. Operators of gas/coal will not do major refit/emissions upgrades when they can’t spread the cost out far into the future, so as a result, the fossil plants become less profitable due to regulation
- The Farm Grad - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:19 pm:
“Sort of a self-fulfilling thing as CEJA banned municipal coal power plants and called for a carbon-free power grid by 2045, resulting in the closing of all fossil-fuel power plants”
Meanwhile, China finishes 5 coal-powered power plants a month, and has 30 nuclear power reactors under construction. Over the last 14 years, China has expanded its available power at a 9.1% cagr, while the USA has expanded it at 1.1%.
Upshot? China is providing power to its AI industry at 3 to 4 cents a kilowatt hour
- Frequent Commenter - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:19 pm:
“States cannot individually control…..”
To your point Rich, which makes the CJC statement so frustrating and misleading to those who live in Illinois. If we stop data center growth in Illinois while other state in the PJM region do not - Illinois loses - no more growth while our utility bills continue to go up.
IMO it is similar to the gerrymandering/fair maps argument. Either everybody does it or nobody does it.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:27 pm:
===5 coal-powered power plants===
This is the second time you’ve posted that statistic. You’re going by old data.
Permitting has slowed considerably https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/chinas-new-coal-plant-permits-set-four-year-low-2025-analysis-finds-2025-11-25/
Also: “In June 2025, coal’s share in power generation dropped to a nine-year low of 51%, and only made up 34% of China’s total installed capacity, while renewables accounted for 60%, pointing to the ongoing trend of coal losing steam while an artificial push attempts to expand rather than phase down its historic role.” https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-coal-is-losing-ground-but-not-letting-go/
- Harrison - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:28 pm:
Sounds like a real existential threat.
There is no time to waste to fix this.
- Leap Day William - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:47 pm:
Reading this on the same day as having the final inspection on my recently installed solar panels makes that decision feel all the better, even without the net metering benefit.
- ArchPundit - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:50 pm:
Coal is the most expensive source now of the major sources. Add that to the pollution from it and there is no reason to build new coal plants.
- Leatherneck - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:54 pm:
All the more reason that the proposed CyrusOne data center in far southwestern Sangamon County, near the newly opened solar farm, needs to be stopped.
- Center Drift - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 12:56 pm:
You need baseload power, without it the system crashes. Either you grow baseload or you control the power hogs of AI. The Dems in Il and too many other parts of the country ignored the warnings that the electrical generators were telling them. The public should not bear the brunt of this. Have AI build their own generation.
- Jack in Chatham - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:05 pm:
@Farm Grad, in recent years 80% of China’s new electrical generation has come from Solar and Wind. Solar and Wind is less expensive and gives China an advantage.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:06 pm:
===without it the system crashes===
Battery storage is designed to address this.
- Think again - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:26 pm:
=Battery storage is designed to address this=
Need to account for round-trip efficiency (Conversion): The loss comes from converting AC to DC - charging and DC back to AC discharge. The most efficient grid-level storage lithium-ion systems see 10-20% loss per cycle or 80-90% round-trip efficiency.
- ArchPundit - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:26 pm:
Battery prices have come down dramatically and we’ll see sodium based batteries this decade. If you need the generative power natural gas is better than coal for both pollution and cost. We need to plan redundancy and cyber security into the system but the grid is going to look drastically different by 2035
- Cool Papa Bell - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:30 pm:
So are there power plants that can be “reopened” for the short run?
I know the Michigan is bringing the Palisades plant back on line. I would think taking something (nuke or coal) out of mothballs is faster than building new. A full commitment to establish more baseload power in the short run is needed.
If that can happen - at the same time we should not be holding back on building solar fields and establishing more battery storage. It won’t take many years to see how dreadful a decision it was by the current federal leadership to axe solar and wind funding.
- JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:35 pm:
Build more nuclear plants.
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:38 pm:
- The Dems in Il and too many other parts of the country ignored the warnings that the electrical generators were telling them. -
Nonsense. The data center boom wasn’t in the mix at the time, and the law was written to delay closures in the even the grid needed to keep plants online. This is a tech industry creation, and I’m very much betting that a lot of these data centers will never end up turning their lights on.
- Truckin’ - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:38 pm:
I love this. Pay more, but potentially face energy shortages. Sounds like a good deal if you ask me. Honestly though, the state has plenty to do with rates via regulations and the requirement to shutter the dreaded fossil fuel plants. That statement was directly from an Ameren representative when rates went up 3 years ago.
Move on to now where solar fields and wind farms are popping up faster than Illinois can fill potholes. Each time a new project is pitched like it’s some great thing for the residents in the area. Then once the project is done rates never decrease for those near the projects. Then a simple google search leads you to the actual beneficiaries of the clean and affordable energy.
One project the Double Black Diamond Solar Farm. Project pitched it would generate enough power for apx 100k homes only to find that City of Chicago purchases 70% of their energy from this project and they’re not the only customer. Now I’m no mathematician here, but I don’t think 100k homes are receiving power from this farm. Then there’s the job claims. Drive by a solar farm or wind farm on any given day and see how many permanent employees you see working the grounds. Illinois needs transparency when it comes to these projects and that is within state control. Taxpayers should demand accountability on all fronts since residents aren’t the beneficiaries of the clean reliable affordable energy.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2025/05/01/double-black-diamond-now-the-largest-operating-solar-power-producer-east-of-the-mississippi/
- Brave New World - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:44 pm:
=fossil fuel plants (many of which were uneconomical and aging out anyway)=
“So, if somebody wants to build a coal plant, they can — it’s just that it will bankrupt them” - 4/5/12, some IL politician.
Yep, it’s economics, not democratic politics. LOL.
- Marge - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:56 pm:
===The data center industry remains committed to paying its full cost of service for the energy it uses. Reports from states like Virginia and Arizona confirm we’re delivering on that commitment===
This is a bit misleading and why Sandberger ran on making DCs pay their fair share of total costs (not just use).
From VA’s 2024 report: “The study found that current rates appropriately allocate costs to the customers responsible for incurring them, including data center customers. However, data centers’ increased energy demand will likely increase system costs for all customers, including non-data center customers, for several reasons. A large amount of new generation and transmission will need to be built that would not otherwise be built, creating fixed costs that utilities will need to recover. It will be difficult to supply enough energy to keep pace with growing data center demand, so energy prices are likely to increase for all customers. Finally, if utilities are more reliant on importing power, they may not always be able to secure lower-cost power and will be more susceptible to spikes in energy market prices. A typical residential customer of Dominion Energy could experience generation- and transmission-related costs increasing by an estimated $14 to $37 monthly in constant (or real) dollars by 2040 (independent of inflation). Establishing a separate data center customer class, changing cost allocations, and adjusting utility rates more frequently could help insulate non-data center customers from statewide cost increases.”
https://jlarc.virginia.gov/landing-2024-data-centers-in-virginia.asp
Because of these other increased costs, I don’t think Virginians agree that DCs are delivering on their commitment. The Gubernatorial race illustrated that. Residential ratepayers do not want to pay even higher bills to support data centers that are going to lead to the automation of the jobs the ratepayers need to pay for the increased energy bills or DCs that never actually materialize.
https://www.vpm.org/elections/2025-10-28/election-2025-data-centers-earle-sears-spanberger-dominion-clean-virginia
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 1:59 pm:
So we don’t need to bail out the nuclear plants anymore?
As Rich noted, this is a complex, national issue that will soon become a major crisis. I don’t have much confidence that our national political system can meet this challenge. Congress is broken beyond repair and there is a corrupt nihilist in the White House.
Brace yourselves, indeed. It’s going to get much worse before it gets better.
- thechampaignlife - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 2:00 pm:
Data centers claim they are paying their fair share, but their demand drives up the cost for everyone else. Economists call it an externality, and it could be addressed by charging data centers the marginal cost of their additional demand, not the average cost where all demand is treated equally. That marginal cost is much higher because it requires new capacity, but they are being subsidized by spreading that cost amongst all ratepayers equally.
- Think again - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 2:06 pm:
=Build more nuclear plants=
I totally agree - but here the rub - NRC and EPA technical regulations are difficult enough to overcome - but the real problem is the “interveners” from environmental groups like Friends of the Earth and Sierra Club, if they get involved, they can single-handedly delay a new project by years. Now that the Dems have come around to Nuclear, that may be reduced
- Brave New World - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 2:29 pm:
=Sounds like a real existential threat.
There is no time to waste to fix this.=
The exact same words were said again and again about a political topic that helped put us in this mess. Not a popular topic anymore….
- Chicagonk - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 2:33 pm:
The DCC lobbies against Bring Your Own Power solutions. That is a pretty easy fix for the so-called energy shortage.
- Crispy - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 3:17 pm:
*In recent years 80% of China’s new electrical generation has come from Solar and Wind. Solar and Wind is less expensive and gives China an advantage.*
Meanwhile, the current administration has been doing its best to kill off green/alternative energy–while at the same time backing a Wild West-type expansion of AI, which includes energy-hogging data centers. Plus, the alleged thousands of jobs these data centers would generate will be more than offset by the job losses incurred due to increased use of AI. Pretty ironic.
Not suprising, I suppose, when the people running the country think *groceries* is a novel word. Still, its maddening.
- New Day - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 3:30 pm:
“Sort of a self-fulfilling thing as CEJA banned municipal coal power plants and called for a carbon-free power grid by 2045, resulting in the closing of all fossil-fuel power plants.”
Rich already pointed out that you’re using old talking points in other areas and this one is just nonsensical. Illinois closed the vast majority of its coal plants long before CEJA passed. During the first Trump administration, he vowed to have a coal renaissance and instead saw an acceleration in coal plant closures nationally. Coal is dirty and very expensive. It is not the panacea that many in this thread seem to think it is.
China is a global leader in wind, solar and battery storage. Texas is a national leader in wind, solar and battery storage. Neither of those places are lefty palaces. They are embracing renewables and storage because they are the cheapest and quickest way to address these energy shortfalls.
Contrary to the notion that Illinois has been radically pushing for these technologies, Illinois has been way too slow in adopting storage and CRGA is way way way too small to meet the moment. This is largely thanks to opposition from environmental groups that pushed for two years for the storage component of the bill to be smaller and smaller and then opposition from the IMA, IIEC and other business groups as well as Ameren that spread ridiculous claims about the costs of storage because they wanted no solutions other than more gas. As can be seen around the world, the energy system is changing dramatically. You either embrace it or you get run over by it.
- The Gambler - Wednesday, Dec 17, 25 @ 4:11 pm:
The resource adequacy report makes clear the folly of CRGA. Ask yourself this question–when it is early February in Chicago and temperatures are in the teens for the third straight day, snow covers the ground and the sky is a leaden grey, how much power will 3 gigawatts of batteries authorized by CRGA provide–NONE. The batteries won’t be charged and even if they were, in temperatures like that their efficiency plummets.
The IRP process is a way for unelected officials to raise electricity costs by pushing for ever more intermittent energy resources that will not be there when temperatures plunge into the single digits in the middle of a winter’s night.
Where are the consumer advocacy groups, like CUB, that are supposed to be looking out for the pocketbooks of the everyman instead of the promoting the potential promise of an energy utopia that may or may not reduce electricity costs in 10 years?
When the General Assembly returns in January, they should develop an all of the above energy future plan that does not dogmatically advocate for any generation technology but rather tries to make common sense decisions and lets free market policies encourage the best solutions.