A recent study published by three state agencies warns electricity shortages are coming to Illinois.
The shortages will start in PJM Interconnection’s regional transmission system by 2029, with the shortage hitting Illinois’ ComEd territory (which is within PJM) beginning in 2030, and then kicks in hard by 2032.
Capacity shortages in downstate Ameren’s territory are expected to begin in 2031 and escalate through 2035, when the stuff hits the fan. Ameren is in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator’s, or MISO’s, regional transmission network.
The report acknowledges that some fossil fuel power plants might have to remain open at least in the short-term, despite the state’s ambitious climate goals. A bill passed the legislature in October to facilitate that.
The Illinois Power Agency, the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency and the Illinois Commerce Commission conducted the study.
Massive increases in power needs by data centers are the “primary driver” of increased electricity demand, according to the report. Those gigantic increases were not foreseen when the state designed its landmark clean energy law in 2021 requiring net-zero carbon energy by 2045.
Coal and gas plants “are planned to retire across both [PJM and MISO] due to age, economics and emissions limits,” the new report points out, and that’s also contributing to the coming shortage.
Also problematic is the fact that new gas plant equipment takes 5-7 years to purchase and install, and the plants face additional siting and permitting barriers. Wind and solar face serious obstacles as well.
All that results in this warning from the three state agencies: “These conditions create a credible risk of regional capacity shortfalls that will impact Illinois’ future ability to import power during critical hours and may cause reliability issues in Illinois even if Illinois market zones have enough capacity to meet their [resource adequacy] requirements as determined by [PJM and MISO].”
Translation: Even if Illinois produces more power, we still might be in big trouble because other states are facing similar problems.
In the ComEd region alone, projected load growth “drives a 24% increase in resource adequacy requirements between 2025 and 2030, which contributes to growing dependence on external capacity even before the onset of an outright shortfall in 2032.”
However, the report claims, “The state can successfully navigate both near-term reliability risks and longer-term decarbonization goals through a diversified resource strategy.” That strategy includes “the continued use” of fossil fuel plants “even as their energy output declines with higher renewable penetration.”
Another study will be published in 2027. The report said that study will likely include increased renewables and battery storage but will also look at “delays and/or reductions” to emissions requirements allowed by the Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act, which passed in October.
That’s cutting it awful close. Some business groups, including the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association, want the state to act immediately to keep existing fossil fuel plants open.
Forty years ago, Illinois had some of the highest electric utility rates in the Midwest. Then, after the state deregulated the industry, our costs became far more competitive and the state used those low rates to lure new businesses.
But then abundant supply (encouraged by deregulation) pushed rates to a point where some nuclear power plant owners couldn’t afford to operate, so Illinois had to force consumers to subsidize the plants.
Then, with the gigantic data center and resulting artificial intelligence booms, along with aging plants going offline, electricity started becoming scarce again and rates have gone up.
Unilaterally cutting off data center expansion here won’t work because the state is part of those two large regional power distribution networks. They’ll just cross the state lines and continue consuming our juice.
Maybe the AI bubble will burst. But what is clear is that Illinois laws have to be flexible enough to deal with the unexpected, and that obviously hasn’t been the case.
Yes, coal plants were closing anyway because they aren’t cost-competitive. Same with some gas plants. But government operates so slowly that few have confidence it can turn the ship around in time to avert a coming shortage.
Everyone is pointing to the recently passed Clean and Reliable Grid Affordability Act as a possible solution because it gives the state more pollution control flexibility, but even that may not be adequate if there’s not enough will at the top to make extra sure we don’t enter a crisis stage.
The governor has expressed confidence that the state can handle this. But businesspeople are rightly freaking out.
Climate change is real. But if the lights don’t go on, or the local factories close, nobody will care about excuses. They’ll just want it fixed.
- Michael McLean - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 12:49 pm:
The left is going to have to wrestle with some hard realities here. If democrats succeed in our policy goals to electrify heating, industry, and transportation, the load growth would dwarf AI. The way I look at it: if we can’t handle data centers, what chance do we have at getting those other goals accomplished?
This ethree modeling (from pre-AI era!) shows that we would tip over into becoming a winter-peaking grid if we electrify more of the economy. Fundamentally changes the capacity value of generators. In particular, solar would add less value. https://www.ethree.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/E3-Commonwealth-Edison-Decarbonization-Report.-December-2022.pdf
- Telly - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 1:00 pm:
== The left is going to have to wrestle with some hard realities here. ==
Agreed, but the right is gonna have to do the same thing. We need energy abundance, instead, the Trump administration is killing viable and badly needed renewable projects simply to “own the libs.”
All the above, please.
- Think again - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 1:11 pm:
” That strategy includes “the continued use” of fossil fuel plants “even as their energy output declines with higher renewable penetration.”
This was an inevitability - JB let the environmental lobby include unrealistic limits in CEJA. He got the political boost back in 2021 - now this self-inflicted reality is setting in. Illinois needs to act quickly - turbines are on back log, so get in line …
“NextEra Energy Chairman, President and CEO John Ketchum in June said that a few years ago it was “easy to get gas-fired generation up online and producing electricity. That’s not the same today…He said that “if we want to build a new gas-fired generation facility…we can’t get it online until 2032.”
https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/with-gas-fired-generation-surging-gas-turbine-backlogs-come-forefront
- Anon221 - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 1:16 pm:
This interview follows up on the posting Isabel had in the morning briefing about the Logan County data center- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTa4-a5BeRI&t=326s
There is also a meeting tonight concerning this data center in Lincoln- https://newherald.news/logan-county-zoning-notice-p31914-216.htm#gsc.tab=0
- Excitable Boy - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 1:26 pm:
- The way I look at it: if we can’t handle data centers, what chance do we have at getting those other goals accomplished? -
These data centers are looking to go online within the next 2 years. Electrification goals are many years past that.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 1:35 pm:
I’m sure it’s a fixable problem. We’ve been generating electricity for 150 years or so. It won’t be easy though.
The problem of the AI data centers is unique. Their pitch is “We’ll use all your electricity and water and employ almost no one from your community. You’re welcome.”
- Paying Attention - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 2:32 pm:
Dumb question: couldn’t you just turn off the data centers/AI processing servers if they overrun the available electricity? That wouldn’t happen every day at first, and would reconfigure incentives for data centers to support energy generation…? Or am I missing something?
- Senator Clay Davis - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 2:34 pm:
==The left is going to have to wrestle with some hard realities here==
==the right is gonna have to do the same thing==
Neither party is truly prepared to address the energy shortage challenges (state or national), but it’s certainly not the GOP. Setting aside the climate issue (which is real), we can’t build new gas (generation, pipeline or transmission) fast enough, and certainly not new nukes fast enough to meet demand growth. Renewables and storage can happen faster but we need more fast-tracked transmission.
Neither party is willing to take on the NIMBY challenges of either approach, though at least the Dems vision is remotely possible. The GOP energy platform - to the extent it exists - is pure fantasy that ignores market and supply chain realities.
- Ducky LaMoore - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 2:55 pm:
“We’ll use all your electricity and water and employ almost no one from your community. You’re welcome.”
I think that is the most succinct statement on the data centers. How many data centers will it take for AI to know the difference between a door and a window? I’m still waiting.
- sulla - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 3:03 pm:
“Renewables and storage can happen faster but we need more fast-tracked transmission.”
This. And we need groups like the Citizens Utility Board to quit fighting every single piece of transmission infrastructure investment that gets proposed. You cannot connect new loads to the grid without new transmission investment.
- Think again - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 3:05 pm:
““We’ll use all your electricity and water and employ almost no one from your community. You’re welcome.”
Tell that to the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150.
- 4 percent - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 3:19 pm:
Basically, the IMA has been correct the entire time as they stressed keeping the current plants operating, adding new generation, and building transmission.
I’d also note that battery storage is NOT generation.
And just look at all the quotes from lawmakers and advocates (CUB, IEC, Sierra etc) that said CEJA would lower costs (nope) and are now promising the same under the new bill. Not gonna happen.
- The Gambler - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 4:31 pm:
Illinois formerly embraced leadership on energy issues, but leadership requires making choices that might be different than others. Unfortunately, CRGA represents a complete abdication of such leadership, instead adopting failed policies of state sponsored procurements, like what happened at the turn of the century in California. State sponsored procurements under the guise of resource adequacy and in support of chosen technologies will not solve Illinois’s energy needs in the future. What worked before was letting competitive forces drive outcomes rather than implementing social policy through line items on an energy invoice.
- The Gambler - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 5:34 pm:
As noted, when Illinois deregulated its energy sector, costs came down. Then special interests started to come back adding a line item for this, a line item for that, and now with CRGA, and particularly the IRP Process which gives state agencies the absolute power to raise rates, Illinois finds itself at a crossroads. It can choose to follow the paths of California, where 20 years ago the state bought power futures for consumers at an absolutely disastrous cost or it can stop state interference in markets and return to the principles of competition and self-reliance that are foundational values in this state.
- Brave New World - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 7:14 pm:
=principles of competition and self-reliance that are foundational values in this state=
Illinois decided to “replace the frigidity of rugged individualism with the warmth of collectivism.”
Option number 1 it is.
- RNUG - Monday, Jan 5, 26 @ 8:41 pm:
== : couldn’t you just turn off the data centers/AI processing servers if they overrun the available electricity ==
You could … but it is highly likely those data centers are going to be built with backup power sources. From my experience building 7/24/365 data centers, you will have battery backup capable of handling something like 20 minute outages … and dirty diesel powered motor generators that can run for weeks at a time if necessary.
Not very green, but if you seen the operation mission critical, that’s what you build.
- Go Bears - Tuesday, Jan 6, 26 @ 8:57 am:
Maybe someone could better explain this to me, but what I find confusing about this is that data centers have insane uptime needs. And this power shortage will be a huge liability for them. I’m assuming they’re aware of it, but it’s in their best interest to have a reliable power supply. Their data centers will be useless if there’s constant power cuts, right?
- The Gambler - Tuesday, Jan 6, 26 @ 9:55 am:
@ Go Bears–you have hit on a key point–reliability. This matters not only to data centers but to Local 150, every Illinois citizen and existing businesses as well. Finding the right solution requires a willingness to honestly consider all of the options that are on the table and not just advocate for one solution over another.