Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Raja poll shows 10-point lead on Stratton; Kim and Kifowit launch new comptroller ads; Kaegi and Hynes clash over ‘homeowner’ claim
* Raja Krishnamoorthi’s US Senate campaign has released a new poll with himself 10 percentage points ahead of Lt. Gov Juliana Stratton…
Methodology…
Polling was conducted online from March 3-5, 2026. Drawn from a list of past Democratic primary voters and using Dynamic Online Sampling and SMS text messaging to attain a representative sample, Change Research polled 717 likely Democratic primary voters in Illinois. Post-stratification was performed on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, and region. The survey has a margin of error of 4.0 percentage points.
The pro-Stratton Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association recently released a poll conducted March 2-3 that had Stratton leading by three percentage points.
* Two comptroller candidates unveiled new digital ads today. Lake County Treasurer Holly Kim…
Mendoza: I’ve been getting a lot of questions about who I’m supporting to take over as comptroller.
Mendoza: Cindy from Springfield wrote: Dear Susana, I’m a lifelong Democrat and would like to know your thoughts on the contestants for your current position. Or, if you cannot officially answer, can you please send me a hint?
Mendoza: Well, thanks for asking, Cindy.
Kim: Hi Cindy, I’m Holly Kim, and ready to be your next comptroller. I hope I can count on your support.
Mendoza: By the way, Cindy, that’s not just a hint, it’s an endorsement.
* Next up, Comptroller candidate Rep. Stephanie Kifowit…
The Kifowit for Comptroller campaign today released the “Stephanie Kifowit Stands With Us” digital advertising campaign, with the 30-second spot running on digital platforms throughout Illinois.
The ad highlights the experience and confidence voters can count on with Stephanie Kifowit as the next Comptroller for the State of Illinois.Her more than 20 years of public finance experience, her service in the United States Marine Corps, and her ability to start on Day 1 in the Comptroller’s office shows she is the only one that can continue the work of being the independent fiscal watchdog that Illinois residents need. […]
Ad Transcript:
Donald Trump is really eroding our civil rights, our civil liberties, and our access to due process.
But he’s also trying to starve Illinois communities by withholding the money that we deserve
As a United States Marine, with 20 years experience, I’m gonna fight Donald Trump to get every single penny that we deserve here in Illinois for our most needed communities.
I support Stephanie Kifowit.
She’ll step up and fight for working families.
We could not be happier that she’s running for Comptroller.
I’m Stephanie Kifowit, and I’m running for Illinois State Comptroller.
* Moving on to the Cook County Assessor race where the Fritz Kaegi campaign is accusing Pat Hynes of lying in a campaign ad featuring a “homeowner” who doesn’t own a home…
Assessor candidate Pat Hynes is out with an ad featuring a “homeowner” whose property taxes “doubled.”
There are just two problems with the ad: the woman featured in the ad doesn’t actually own her home, and records show that the tax bill she claims doubled only increased by 6.9% last year.
The ad features Micaela G. Smith, a Lansing Village Trustee and career political staffer, who claims, “I’m a homeowner from the Village of Lansing and my property taxes have doubled.”
Cook County property records show that Micaela Smith has never owned property in Lansing or anywhere else in the county. The home featured in the ad is owned by her parents and receives a Senior Tax Exemption that is available only to homeowners age 65 and older. Micaela Smith is 40.
* Kaegi campaign manager Sophia Escobedo…
“Pat Hynes should know that lying isn’t a great way to build trust with voters. Here are the facts: Pat Hynes is bankrolled by property tax lawyers who make millions gaming the system, and if it weren’t for Pat Hynes’ special interest donors, families like Micaela’s would be paying less in taxes than they do now.”
* The Hynes campaign sent over this statement from Micaela Smith, the woman featured in the ad, in response…
“Fritz Kaegi is offensively out of touch with the financial reality facing so many of us who don’t have millions of dollars at their disposal as he does. My parents are retired and I am their caregiver. I pay all the bills, including the mortgage, and if I wasn’t in the picture, my parents would never be able to stay in their home or cover the property tax hikes that ballooned under Kaegi. Shame on him for trying to leverage the financial pain of my family and turn it into a political hit.”
More from the Hynes campaign…
Facts re her property taxes:
- In 2022, Kaegi said the market value of the home at $213,750
- During the 2023 assessment, he increased the market value of $340,000, a 59% increase in value
- Michaela filed an appeal with the board of review who reduced it to $311,830
- The resultant increase in an annual property tax burden in 2023, which was payable in 2024, was $2507.87 – a 26.48% increase
- Assessor Kaegi as usual is misrepresenting what happened to Micaela by claiming that the tax bill only increased 6.9%. He is using the following year figures - in the following year, the tax bill increased in additional 6.94% on TOP of the prior year 26.48% increase.
- Michaela’s mortgage escrow recalculation doubled after the tax increase. Many other taxpayers in the Southland have communicated the same thing at the same time. […]
Hynes Campaign manager Allison Schraub statement:
“Fritz Kaegi has managed to once again prove what an out of touch private equity multimillionaire he is. Micaela and her parents, like so many residents from across the Southland, have struggled to hold onto their homes during Kaegi’s failed reign as Assessor, and the fact that he would call into question the harsh reality she faces shows he has no business being Assessor or holding any role in public service as he is incapable of understanding the fear Cook County homeowners must endure. It’s time for him to go.”
A lot of people didn’t believe the polls Showing Juliana catching up. Now a Raja internal poll shows her down only like 10? I think the race is probably somewhere in the middle which means a very competitive race.
It’s important to have internal polls and it is important to keep in mind data validity and margins of errors for other polls in the race, but at this point I would think it is a mistake for Raja and his team to look at these numbers and the numbers coming from other polling available to them and think that it is an indication to stay the course. The numbers aren’t moving in a direction that I would see as comforting.
===Only if she has $ behind it. ===
I really hope the political future of our state doesn’t turn into candidates that privately jockey for the support of billionaires dumping money into their race through independent expenditures.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:29 pm:
==Only if she has $ behind it. ==
Indeed. It would be great to see that on TV when I watch the Blackhawks tonight. (I’ve been seeing Senate and Congressional ads, but nothing for comptroller.)
With respect to the Hynes ad, let’s summarize:
In the Hynes ad: Micaela G. Smith claims, “I’m a homeowner from the Village of Lansing and my property taxes have doubled.”
Kaegi responds that the ad was false.
The Hynes campaign supports the ad’s claims by admitting she does not own the home and “the tax bill increased in additional 6.94% on TOP of the prior year 26.48% increase.”
So, Hynes defense is that yes, the ad was a lie (and, we cannot do math, but trust us in an office where math is very important).
Not saying that Kaegi shouldn’t be tossed, but sheesh, the Hynes campaign needs to do better.
- Good With Numbers - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:55 pm:
The Kaegi/Hynes debate is one that has been happening for months.
Hynes points out that Kaegi has down harm to tax payers, Kaegi comes back with a lie and people just believe him.
Like most of the Southland Micaela’s taxes doubled. End of story.
Really getting sick of millionaires and billionaires telling us not to believe our eyes when we pay the bills. Waiting for the ad where Fritz says “Affordability is a hoax!”
“I’m a homeowner from the Village of Lansing and my property taxes have doubled.”
“My parents are retired and I am their caregiver. I pay all the bills, including the mortgage, and if I wasn’t in the picture, my parents would never be able to stay in their home or cover the property tax hikes that ballooned under Kaegi.”
“Michaela’s mortgage escrow recalculation doubled after the tax increase.”
I don’t live in Cook County and am just an observer. I was a caregiver living in another family member’s home. I was not the homeowner. I was not paying “my” property taxes. This kind of misrepresentation really turns me off as a voter. The poor woman is not the homeowner: her parents are. Just say that. She was not paying her mortgage: she was paying her parents’ mortgage. Her mortgage escrow recalculation did not double. Her parent’s did. Why not just say that? What is the purpose of misrepresenting the truth? The campaign could have instructed her to say “my parents”. That would have been truthful and honestly, probably would have more impact. To be clear, I am not blaming the woman. I am blaming the campaign for the false misrepresentation.
Do I understand this correctly? Kaegi is attacking a woman from the south suburbs just before the election? Not the smartest move. And renters don’t own homes either but they have been decimated by his outrageous tax assessments. I hope everyone in Southland sees this and give Kaegi the bird on Election Day.
The entire premise of the Fritz hits on Pat Hynes is, “self-funding millionaires should be the only people who run for office because they won’t have to be accountable to donors.” But by that metric, they only have to be accountable to themselves…?
- Red Fish Blue Fish - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 3:18 pm:
@47th Ward– God forbid Kaegi calls out a deceptive ad.
Sloppy work from the Hynes team. How hard is it to vet the subjects of your own ad?
- Jr. Neef - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 1:55 pm:
That is the second Kifowit ad and I think she needs to stick to skydiving.
- low level - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 1:57 pm:
Must say that is impressive comeback by the Hynes campaign. I’ll be voting for Pat.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 1:59 pm:
Very nice ad by Comptroller Mendoza and Lake County Treasurer Kim. This is support by and for the specific qualifications needed to do the job.
- Steve - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:01 pm:
I don’t know if Raja is up. But, we will soon find out. Is Juliana’s support just financial support from one big donor?
- Alton Sinkhole - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:06 pm:
If you took a shot everytime Susana has said “independent, fiscal watchdog” during her tenure as Comptroller — PLEASE go get your liver examined.
- Responsa - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:08 pm:
Holly and Susana. That is the right ad at exactly the right time. A breath of fresh air rising above the sludge. It will be noticed.
- Cole - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:09 pm:
A lot of people didn’t believe the polls Showing Juliana catching up. Now a Raja internal poll shows her down only like 10? I think the race is probably somewhere in the middle which means a very competitive race.
- CT Guy - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:10 pm:
Wow, that’s a very cute ad a great way to show off the very strong endorsement for Kim!
As for Kifowit’s - I noticed the ‘probably not just a coincidence’ in the photos used of having her seated next to Mendoza in one.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:11 pm:
===It will be noticed===
Only if she has $ behind it.
- Candy Dogood - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:29 pm:
===10 percentage points ahead ===
It’s important to have internal polls and it is important to keep in mind data validity and margins of errors for other polls in the race, but at this point I would think it is a mistake for Raja and his team to look at these numbers and the numbers coming from other polling available to them and think that it is an indication to stay the course. The numbers aren’t moving in a direction that I would see as comforting.
===Only if she has $ behind it. ===
I really hope the political future of our state doesn’t turn into candidates that privately jockey for the support of billionaires dumping money into their race through independent expenditures.
- Pot calling kettle - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:29 pm:
==Only if she has $ behind it. ==
Indeed. It would be great to see that on TV when I watch the Blackhawks tonight. (I’ve been seeing Senate and Congressional ads, but nothing for comptroller.)
With respect to the Hynes ad, let’s summarize:
In the Hynes ad: Micaela G. Smith claims, “I’m a homeowner from the Village of Lansing and my property taxes have doubled.”
Kaegi responds that the ad was false.
The Hynes campaign supports the ad’s claims by admitting she does not own the home and “the tax bill increased in additional 6.94% on TOP of the prior year 26.48% increase.”
So, Hynes defense is that yes, the ad was a lie (and, we cannot do math, but trust us in an office where math is very important).
Not saying that Kaegi shouldn’t be tossed, but sheesh, the Hynes campaign needs to do better.
- Good With Numbers - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:55 pm:
The Kaegi/Hynes debate is one that has been happening for months.
Hynes points out that Kaegi has down harm to tax payers, Kaegi comes back with a lie and people just believe him.
Like most of the Southland Micaela’s taxes doubled. End of story.
- Chicago Blue - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:55 pm:
Yeah, I agree with Pot Kettle Black here. Their defense is she doesn’t own the home and her parents’ taxes didn’t double.
- Jim Sackey - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:58 pm:
Really getting sick of millionaires and billionaires telling us not to believe our eyes when we pay the bills. Waiting for the ad where Fritz says “Affordability is a hoax!”
- Steve Polite - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:59 pm:
“I’m a homeowner from the Village of Lansing and my property taxes have doubled.”
“My parents are retired and I am their caregiver. I pay all the bills, including the mortgage, and if I wasn’t in the picture, my parents would never be able to stay in their home or cover the property tax hikes that ballooned under Kaegi.”
“Michaela’s mortgage escrow recalculation doubled after the tax increase.”
I don’t live in Cook County and am just an observer. I was a caregiver living in another family member’s home. I was not the homeowner. I was not paying “my” property taxes. This kind of misrepresentation really turns me off as a voter. The poor woman is not the homeowner: her parents are. Just say that. She was not paying her mortgage: she was paying her parents’ mortgage. Her mortgage escrow recalculation did not double. Her parent’s did. Why not just say that? What is the purpose of misrepresenting the truth? The campaign could have instructed her to say “my parents”. That would have been truthful and honestly, probably would have more impact. To be clear, I am not blaming the woman. I am blaming the campaign for the false misrepresentation.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 2:59 pm:
Do I understand this correctly? Kaegi is attacking a woman from the south suburbs just before the election? Not the smartest move. And renters don’t own homes either but they have been decimated by his outrageous tax assessments. I hope everyone in Southland sees this and give Kaegi the bird on Election Day.
- Tax the Rich - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 3:00 pm:
The entire premise of the Fritz hits on Pat Hynes is, “self-funding millionaires should be the only people who run for office because they won’t have to be accountable to donors.” But by that metric, they only have to be accountable to themselves…?
- Red Fish Blue Fish - Thursday, Mar 5, 26 @ 3:18 pm:
@47th Ward– God forbid Kaegi calls out a deceptive ad.
Sloppy work from the Hynes team. How hard is it to vet the subjects of your own ad?