* The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis has released new GDP numbers for the nation and the states. Some regional numbers are here. National numbers are here. From Frank Manzo IV at the Illinois Economic Policy Institute…
Nationally
• U.S. economy only grew by 0.5% last quarter. Just a few bad events or policies could soon turn the economy negative (See: Iran war and oil shock, rising inflation, job cuts announced by tech companies). 2026Q1 is not currently expected to be negative, but it would not be shocking if it is and we’ve entered into a recession. […]
Illinois
• Illinois had a $1.20 trillion economy in 2025. Since 2019, we’ve added $306 billion to our economy. That’s more than Iowa produces in a year ($277B) and about the size of Kentucky’s entire economy ($307B).
o This is average output over the year. For 2025Q4, annualized GDP was $1.23 trillion. There’s a small chance we end up with a $1.3T economy by the end of 2026, but not if we go into recession.
• Last quarter, personal income grew 3.9% in Illinois, faster than every neighboring state (this ranged from -1.5% in IA to +3.2% in MO).
• Last quarter, Illinois grew 1.1%, faster than the US economy (0.5%) and WI (0.1%), IN (0.0%), KY (-1.0%), and MO (0.8%). IA was up 1.8%.
o Over the full 2025 year, however, Illinois real GDP was only up 1.6%. It was 2.1% in the US, 2.5% in IN, 1.2% in IA, 1.0% in KY, 1.3% in MO, and 1.5% in WI. So we lagged the nation and Indiana, but grew faster than every other neighboring state.
* Yeah, we have more robust economies than our immediate neighbors, but I dunno if that’s something I’d crow too much about. Here’s 2019 to 2025 GDP growth in similar states…
Discuss.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 12:42 pm:
Thanks for sharing this Rich. It is helpful to have some data to compare with the rhetoric coming from the usual suspects who never seem to miss a chance to badmouth Illinois. We’re doing some things right, and have some built-in advantages.
But also yes, I wouldn’t spike the football on these numbers. Our economy is in a precarious moment, and probably always will be.
But the “U-Haul” crowd may need a wellness check today. Cognitive dissonance is a (bad word).
- very old soil - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:18 pm:
in 2024, per capita GDP was $70443 in IL, 62,038 in IA and 50,102 in KY
- Jmart - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:24 pm:
If you cut out all the deficit spending on government employees and their related spending (teachers, IL state employees, City of Chicago) in Illinois the economy would have contracted 2019 to present.
And 2019 to 2025 also saw the loss of Boeing, CAT and Citadel - so the engines of growth going forward are shrinking fast.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:38 pm:
==If you cut out all the deficit spending on government employees ==
So you’re discounting an entire sector of the economy to attempt to turn this into a negative? My, my twisting yourself into quite the pretzel aren’t you. You do know the salaries paid to those people end up as spending in the economy that factors into that growth right?
- B - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:38 pm:
@jmart
For 3 or 4 years your tyoe keeps bringing up caterpillar and boeing. A decade from now will you still be doing so?
Chicago for 13 years in a row including 2025 is number 1 in the nation for corporate relocations and expansions and the state of Illinois is 2nd among all states for multiple years running.
How much does it anger you at night that despite your hardest attempts to convince otherwise, that Illinois keeps succeeding despite its challenges?
- Old IL Dude - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:50 pm:
Basically, IL is the capital of the Midwest and Chicago is the MW Capital City. I give JBP a lot of credit for this.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:55 pm:
===Basically, IL is the capital of the Midwest and Chicago is the MW Capital City. I give JBP a lot of credit for this. ===
Illinois was the capital of the Midwest a very long time before 2019.