* The US Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis has released new GDP numbers for the nation and the states. Some regional numbers are here. National numbers are here. From Frank Manzo IV at the Illinois Economic Policy Institute…
Nationally
• U.S. economy only grew by 0.5% last quarter. Just a few bad events or policies could soon turn the economy negative (See: Iran war and oil shock, rising inflation, job cuts announced by tech companies). 2026Q1 is not currently expected to be negative, but it would not be shocking if it is and we’ve entered into a recession. […]
Illinois
• Illinois had a $1.20 trillion economy in 2025. Since 2019, we’ve added $306 billion to our economy. That’s more than Iowa produces in a year ($277B) and about the size of Kentucky’s entire economy ($307B).
o This is average output over the year. For 2025Q4, annualized GDP was $1.23 trillion. There’s a small chance we end up with a $1.3T economy by the end of 2026, but not if we go into recession.
• Last quarter, personal income grew 3.9% in Illinois, faster than every neighboring state (this ranged from -1.5% in IA to +3.2% in MO).
• Last quarter, Illinois grew 1.1%, faster than the US economy (0.5%) and WI (0.1%), IN (0.0%), KY (-1.0%), and MO (0.8%). IA was up 1.8%.
o Over the full 2025 year, however, Illinois real GDP was only up 1.6%. It was 2.1% in the US, 2.5% in IN, 1.2% in IA, 1.0% in KY, 1.3% in MO, and 1.5% in WI. So we lagged the nation and Indiana, but grew faster than every other neighboring state.
* Yeah, we have more robust economies than our immediate neighbors, but I dunno if that’s something I’d crow too much about. Here’s 2019 to 2025 GDP growth in similar states…
Discuss.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 12:42 pm:
Thanks for sharing this Rich. It is helpful to have some data to compare with the rhetoric coming from the usual suspects who never seem to miss a chance to badmouth Illinois. We’re doing some things right, and have some built-in advantages.
But also yes, I wouldn’t spike the football on these numbers. Our economy is in a precarious moment, and probably always will be.
But the “U-Haul” crowd may need a wellness check today. Cognitive dissonance is a (bad word).
- very old soil - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:18 pm:
in 2024, per capita GDP was $70443 in IL, 62,038 in IA and 50,102 in KY
- Jmart - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:24 pm:
If you cut out all the deficit spending on government employees and their related spending (teachers, IL state employees, City of Chicago) in Illinois the economy would have contracted 2019 to present.
And 2019 to 2025 also saw the loss of Boeing, CAT and Citadel - so the engines of growth going forward are shrinking fast.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:38 pm:
==If you cut out all the deficit spending on government employees ==
So you’re discounting an entire sector of the economy to attempt to turn this into a negative? My, my twisting yourself into quite the pretzel aren’t you. You do know the salaries paid to those people end up as spending in the economy that factors into that growth right?
- B - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:38 pm:
@jmart
For 3 or 4 years your tyoe keeps bringing up caterpillar and boeing. A decade from now will you still be doing so?
Chicago for 13 years in a row including 2025 is number 1 in the nation for corporate relocations and expansions and the state of Illinois is 2nd among all states for multiple years running.
How much does it anger you at night that despite your hardest attempts to convince otherwise, that Illinois keeps succeeding despite its challenges?
- Old IL Dude - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:50 pm:
Basically, IL is the capital of the Midwest and Chicago is the MW Capital City. I give JBP a lot of credit for this.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 1:55 pm:
===Basically, IL is the capital of the Midwest and Chicago is the MW Capital City. I give JBP a lot of credit for this. ===
Illinois was the capital of the Midwest a very long time before 2019.
- JB13 - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 2:37 pm:
– that Illinois keeps succeeding despite its challenges –
The “challenges” are self imposed
- City Zen - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 2:56 pm:
==Here’s 2019 to 2025 GDP growth in similar states==
Illinois’ GDP growth over that timespan is the 7th lowest in the nation.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 3:07 pm:
It’s nice to see the naysayers still out in full force anytime you talk about the Illinois economy. Some of you are bound and determined to do nothing but talk negative about it.
- Friendly Bob Adams - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 3:19 pm:
Every day is a good day for good news…
- very old soil - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 3:30 pm:
Ah, fun with the numbers. If your income doubles from 50K to 100K and mine only goes from 1M to 1.8 million who is better off?
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 3:37 pm:
===If your income doubles===
This isn’t about personal income.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 3:48 pm:
…Also, we’re lagging in personal income growth as well
- Thomas Paine - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 4:05 pm:
=== Here’s 2019 to 2025 GDP growth in similar states ===
Rich -
Your point is well taken, I would simply counter that of the “similar states” you mentioned, illinois’ GDP is the Biggest.
And as Trump can tell you, “Biggest is Best” is the easiest math to argue.
So I guess it really depends on what context you are presenting the information.
My advice to candidates for 20 years has been to not take credit for job creation because you really have very little control over it, and you do not want to get blamed when it turns.
That said if you are a Democratic candidate, you really just want to innoculate yourself against claims you are anti-jobs or anti-business.
Republicans are going to try to claim that you are for higher taxes that kill jobs, and if you are wise you will point out not just how you have created jobs but specifically good paying jobs and/or union jobs.
But more important than anything is to have business and union leaders saying these things about you, rather than you saying them yourself.
Lastly remember that illinois economic numbers historically have lagged the coasts, so don’t get too giddy, if California and New York hit a recession, we are probably only 6-12 months behind.
- very old soil - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 4:10 pm:
My point was not about personal income. Rather it was that looking solely at percentages does not adequately/properly describe the situation.
- Frank Manzo IV - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 4:27 pm:
==If you cut out all the deficit spending==
FWIW, 2019-2025 Illinois GDP changes…
Overall economy: +$306 billion (+34.2%)
Private industries: +$282 billion (+34.9%)
Federal government: +$4 billion (+33.0%)
State and local government: +$17 billion (+25.3%)
*Not adjusted for inflation.
Shortened URL to BEA: https://shorturl.at/GLzsY
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 4:33 pm:
Illinois is holding its own, in a weak national economy. Less than 200k jobs were gained all last year. This year has been no prize either. The state gets a break, not only do states like Illinois foot the tax bill for much of the country, they historically create jobs for it too through Democratic presidents/congresses.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 4:42 pm:
===My point was not about===
Yeah, it was.
What you’re ignoring is that National GDP rose 42.8 percent 2019-25, while IL GDP rose 34.2 percent during the same period. (Not inflation adjusted).
Last I checked, the national economy was larger than Illinois’.
- Juice - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 4:54 pm:
Rich, I do think it’s worth looking at the dollar value of the increase in GDP though.
As Frank points out above, the Illinois economy grew by $306 billion over that timeframe.
None of the other states grew by that amount. So even though they had higher growth rates, they did not grow fast enough to keep pace with the size of the Illinois economy.
- Rich Miller - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 5:32 pm:
===So even though they had higher growth rates, they did not grow fast enough to keep pace with the size of the Illinois economy. ===
I simply don’t buy into that logic.
- City Zen - Thursday, Apr 9, 26 @ 7:24 pm:
==not only do states like Illinois foot the tax bill for much of the country==
States don’t pay taxes. People pay taxes.