* National Politico…
President Donald Trump is throwing his weight behind the fast-growing world of prediction markets in their fight against state gambling regulators.
In a Truth Social post, Trump took aim at several officials whose states have sought to clamp down on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Crypto.com, saying it’s “critically important” that federal regulators at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversee the companies and “that they will thrive.”
“Under my leadership, we are setting ‘rules of the road’ that are the Gold Standard for the States,” Trump wrote Tuesday. “We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules!” […]
State officials argue that the markets are flouting gambling regulations. That includes New York, where James, the state’s attorney general, sued Coinbase and Gemini earlier this year over their prediction-market platforms, and Illinois, where officials sent cease-and-desist letters to prediction market operators. Earlier this month, Walz, the governor of Minnesota, signed the first state law expressly prohibiting prediction markets.
The prediction markets counter that they are exclusively regulated by the CFTC, a small but powerful financial watchdog. And the agency — led by Chair Michael Selig, a Trump appointee — has firmly backed the companies’ fight, including through lawsuits against states like New York, Illinois and Minnesota over their crackdown efforts.
Chris Christie is a gaming industry advisor.
* Pritzker…
* Pew…
Combined monthly global trading volume on these platforms has risen from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block, a digital assets media and information firm.
For comparison, the total amount of money wagered through legal sportsbooks in the United States was around $14 billion per month in 2025, on average.
To trade on the outcome of events, prediction market users buy and sell event contracts with binary outcomes valued between $0 and $1. The price of the contract is meant to represent the likelihood of the outcome happening. For example, a “yes” contract valued at 40 cents is meant to represent a 40% chance that an outcome will happen. Once a market is resolved, a winning contract is worth $1. In other words, a user pays 40 cents to buy the contract and receives $1 if the outcome happens.
Your thoughts on this topic?
- Casper the Ghost Bus - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 1:52 pm:
I’d be willing to wager that a federally run prediction market racket will not make America great again.
- DS - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 1:54 pm:
Prediction markets are openly, nakedly, obviously gambling.
- BE - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 1:57 pm:
But, given Don Jr’s ties to Kalshi and I think Polymarket, it will make Trumps Rich Again!
It is interesting to me how quickly things that should be ‘left to the states’ gets grabbed by this administration as something that only the feds (and only -this- administration) should have control over.
- Incandenza - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 1:57 pm:
Good to see movement on this to nip it in the bud, but the vast, vast majority of the corrupt insider trading allegedly happening within this administration is still in the conventional markets. Investigations and enforcement are needed there.
- 40,000 ft - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 1:59 pm:
I’m against any kind of gambling and its platforming, promotion, and taxation.
I do think it’s funny that these two dudes, Trump and Pritzker, are sparring over who is more virtuous when it comes to government’s involvement with a vice, like gambling.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:01 pm:
===I’m against any kind of gambling and its platforming, promotion, and taxation===
Yeah, let the Outfit handle all that. /s
- Streator Curmudgeon - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:09 pm:
Just as the gambling industry embraced the term “gaming,” the prediction industry likes the term “trading.”
But it’s all semantics when the activity is actually betting.
The May issue of AARP Bulletin has an informative article on how online gambling preys on seniors. I’m sure the prediction market will use the same tactics.
Like the cryptocurrency scheme, the only people getting rich on this are the ones running the games.
Good on Pritzker.
- Homebody - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:09 pm:
Literally no one thought these were anything other than illegal gambling until the Trump family got in bed with Kalshi and Polymarket, and they installed a crypto cheerleader as the only member of the CFTC.
Multiple people involved with the passage of Dodd Frank have publicly said the obvious: the swaps exchange law was never intended as a backdoor legalization of retail sports wagering.
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:15 pm:
Great to see the name caller in Chief is as classy as ever. And prediction markets are absolutely straight up gambling.
- Three Dimensional Checkers - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:16 pm:
The President is a kleptocractic maniac, and government employees obviously should have nothing to do with this. No idea why the CFTC should regulate this either, other than they are the agency least capable of doing a good job.
I am not an Efficient Market Hypothesis guy, but I have to admit it is a little intellectually interesting to figure out how the prediction markets operate.
- btowntruth from forgottonia - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:16 pm:
Rich, at this point I might trust the outfit more than the administration we have now.
At the very least the outfit is a whole lot better at keeping their mouths shut.
- Garfield Ridge Guy - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:18 pm:
Something like 90% of what Kalshi and Polymarket do is “sportsbetting.” The Governor is squarely on the correct side of this. Prediction markets are just trying to end-run our state’s modest sportsbetting regulations. The state should be able to regulate the manner in which operators accept and pay out sports bets.
- Lagartha's Shield - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:35 pm:
So let me see if I understand. The official position of conservatives/the GOP is that states have no rights to regulate gambling?
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:37 pm:
- Prediction markets are openly, nakedly, obviously gambling. -
Not to mention extremely open to fraud, which is why Trump wants them left alone. But hey, leave it up to him and maybe he’ll run them into the ground like his last casino.
- Google is Your Friend - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:40 pm:
There is a reason Trump likes prediction markets. They help him and his allies bring in cold, hard cash.
Suspected insider accounts net $2.4 million on Polymarket Iran war bets with 98% win rate, firm finds
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/betting-on-iran-war-insider-trading-concerns-prediction-markets-60-minutes/
But it’s so bad even one of Trump’s top toadies in Congress is launching an investigation, specifically naming the administration as a top target.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/kalshi-polymarket-comer-insider-trading-probe-congress.html
- JS Mill - Wednesday, May 27, 26 @ 2:46 pm:
=The President is a kleptocractic maniac,=
Yep. I wouldn’t trust these guys to regulate a sack race. Good on JB.