Question of the day
Monday, Jul 27, 2026 - Posted by Rich Miller
* NPR…
Ann Jacobs is a commissioner with the Wisconsin Elections Commission, a quiet, low-profile state agency that oversees elections. Recently, though, her day was anything but quiet.
“I was sitting at my desk, and all of a sudden Twitter was showing a lot of alerts,” said Jacobs, who watched a flood of posts inundate her screen from employees, lawyers and other boosters of the prediction market company Kalshi.
“My reaction was, boy howdy are they mad,” Jacobs said.
The outrage took Jacobs aback because of what set off the attacks: a commission advisory informing voters that they cannot place a bet in an election in which they cast a ballot.
Wagering on such a race could disqualify a ballot, or even result in a referral to state prosecutors, according to the commission’s statement.
This is not a new policy. The advisory was simply stating the basics of a Wisconsin election law originally passed in 1849, Jacobs said.
“You can’t be a felon on active supervision and vote. If you’re 17, you can’t vote, and betting on an election where you vote, it’s the same thing, it’s not allowed,” she said.
Jump ahead to 2026, and Kalshi, the company leading the prediction market craze, is criticizing the law, calling it “bananas,” “illegal” and a type of “voter suppression.”
* The Question: Should it be legal or illegal for Illinoisans to bet on Illinois elections? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
- Interested Bystander - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 1:17 pm:
You can “bet” on your candidate by making a campaign contribution. The integrity of our elections have taken enough hits of late. Let’s not add to that with betting that leads to profits.
- Steve Polite - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 1:24 pm:
Voted Illegal. How is this any different than athletes participating in a sporting contest betting on the outcome of the game? Allowing voters to bet on outcomes of elections in which they are voting is a dangerous road to go down. It could easily lead to unforeseen negative consequences.
- Diane - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 1:25 pm:
Illegal in that all of this prediction market crap ought to be illegal. Kalshi and their ilk are a drain on society.
- JS Mill - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 1:25 pm:
Kalshi is gambling. Plain and simple.
- Just Another Anon - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 1:28 pm:
Having inside information and using it to profit from gambling markets should always be prohibited. Too many people with “too much” information. The Pete Rose defense isn’t good enough here.
- Nyxie - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 1:39 pm:
Yes, but in the sense that gambling on public elections shouldn’t be allowed in prediction markets.
- low level - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:07 pm:
Legal. This is a contract. For every yes share i buy, there is someone on the other side of the trade buying no. Its value is derived from how a candidate is performing - a classic derivative. If my candidate starts to do poorly, I can sell my yes shares and recoup some of my losses. Or, if he does well, I can sell at a profit.
If this is considered “gambling”, then all futures and options contracts on stocks must be considered “gambling” as well. Do er really want to do that?
- sewer thoughts - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:11 pm:
30 of these readers are degenerates. If this was 20 years ago, that would be funnier.
- Leslie K - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:14 pm:
Voted illegal because I believe these prediction markets themselves should be illegal, particularly as applied to elections.
A single person with one vote, betting that the candidate they voted for will either win or lose, is not the same sort of “inside information” or influence that such bans typically address (e.g. candidates or staffers betting, sports players betting on their own games that they could throw). But it is nevertheless not good for the democratic process.
- Leslie K - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:16 pm:
==If this is considered “gambling”, then all futures and options contracts on stocks must be considered “gambling” as well. Do er really want to do that?==
Um, yes–because they are? Just saying.
- OutOfState - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:19 pm:
Voted illegal. I’m from Wisconsin, so had heard about the controversy already. The claim that these prediction markets aren’t gambling is obviously ridiculous motivated-reasoning that defines gambling so narrowly that only their (regulated) sportsbook competitors fit their definition. By calling themselves “peer-to-peer,” the prediction markets took the idea of the casual wager between friends and slid it all the way down a slippery slope into a legal argument that they should get the same treatment, which is to say unregulated and unprosecuted.
As for the prohibition on gambling on elections, I don’t see the point. Even though elections aren’t controllable in the same way that government action is (e.g. when the US govt attacks a foreign country), allowing people to gamble encourages moral corruption of a serious process. Politics aren’t entertainment like sports - they’re how we endow individuals with the power to govern our communities. Allowing participants in the process to gamble on elections leads to worse political life.
- low level - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:24 pm:
==Um, yes–because they are? Just saying.==
So you would outlaw the CME, CBOT and CBOE— institutions which provide thousands of jobs for Chicagoans. Thats good to know. I guess the NYSE as well?
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:25 pm:
===So you would outlaw the CME, CBOT and CBOE===
Those trade something of intrinsic value and help manage the economy as a whole. Kalshi trades almost purely on vibes.
- OutOfState - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:31 pm:
==If this is considered “gambling”, then all futures and options contracts on stocks must be considered “gambling” as well.==
Two things:
1) Stocks, futures and options are highly regulated, which prediction markets are desperately avoiding.
2) Being a contract doesn’t make a prediction market wager the same as a future or option. Those instruments have some sort of real asset underlying them (the ownership of stock or commodities). There is no underlying asset here, besides money arbitrarily connected to an unrelated activity, which is just gambling by a slightly more complicated name.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:33 pm:
What OutOfState said. Also, this is clearly gambling, and states have the right to regulate gambling.
- Sue - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:33 pm:
If people want to bet on something they will find a way/ these betting sites are regulated and pay taxes- what is the harm unless there is evidence it could compromise outcomes which is hard to imagine
- Brave New World - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:42 pm:
=Having inside information and using it to profit from gambling markets should always be prohibited.=
It is.
=tocks, futures and options are highly regulated, which prediction markets are desperately avoiding.=
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:46 pm:
====are regulated===
Nope.
- Leslie K - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:46 pm:
Love the hyperbole, low level. The “thousands of jobs” was a nice touch. /s
Rich and OutofState make a much better point than I did, that certain markets have actual underlying assets/value.
Speaking for myself, while options and futures do also have underlying value, the “prediction” nature of all that betting has a gambling nature. You aren’t investing in a company (stocks), you are betting about what that company will or won’t do (an underlying point about buying or selling stocks, but not the same). But at least it is all highly regulated.
- low level - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 2:55 pm:
Oh. No jobs are created by futures and options markets? Gotcha. I guess thats why the City of Chicago and State of Illinois do their utmost to keep them here.
One final point, then I will withdraw. CFTC regulation of prediction markets is noted here -
https://www.cftc.gov/LearnandProtect/PredictionMarkets
- Demoralized - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 3:12 pm:
@low level
You’re trying to compare things that just are not comparable. If you can see the difference then I don’t know what to tell you. You clearly have some sort of skin in the game with Kalshi to be defending this.
- Leslie K - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 3:15 pm:
==Oh. No jobs are created by futures and options markets? Gotcha==
Literally no one said that.
- Lurker - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 3:25 pm:
Pete Rose was wrong. This is wrong. I voted illegal … and I’ll bet that wins
- Annon'in - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 3:25 pm:
Voted “legal” cause
a. betting on everything else in IL is legal
b. people in IL and the planets other zillion jurisdictions bet on elections every cycle.
c. this seems like a weak QOTD, but it is summer so Capt Fax should be cut some slack. Meanwhile
HOW ABOUT THAT TRIBBIE PAGE EXCLUSIVE THAT THERE IS LOW TURNOUT IN TAX HIKE REFERENDUMS.
- Rich Miller - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 3:33 pm:
===No jobs are created by futures and options markets?===
Stop arguing like a child.
- flea - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 5:14 pm:
Is not contributimng to a candidate a wager?
- Excitable Boy - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 6:11 pm:
If you want to bet on elections do it with your friends. Regulated gambling enterprises, which prediction markets need to become, should stay out of it. I do find the prospect of a lowly campaign staffer tanking a campaign to win a bet pretty amusing.
- Dotnonymous x - Monday, Jul 27, 26 @ 7:24 pm:
Anything that can be gambled on can be fixed…doomed to repeat.
The only winning bet?…bet on the House.