PPP poll: Pritzker ahead by 20 points
Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I don’t know anything about Chicago News Weekly, but I do know about PPP. I don’t vouch for anyone’s polling these days, but check it out anyway...
Gov. JB Pritzker holds a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Darren Bailey, while Democratic candidates are ahead in four other statewide races surveyed in the first statewide election poll commissioned by Chicago News Weekly.
The survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling from Sept. 30 through Oct. 1, included 569 Illinois voters. Pritzker received 54% support in the governor’s race, compared with 34% for Bailey. Independent candidate Collin Corbett received 6%, while another 6% of respondents were undecided.
Democratic candidates also led each of the other four statewide contests included in the poll. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Juliana Stratton received 49% support to Republican Don Tracy’s 36%, with 15% of respondents undecided.
Attorney General Kwame Raoul received 52% support, compared with 38% for Republican Bob Fioretti, while 11% were undecided. Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias led Republican Diane Harris 55% to 37%, with 8% undecided. In the comptroller race, Democrat Margaret Croke received 48% support to Republican Bryan Drew’s 37%, while 15% had not selected a candidate. […]
The CNW poll also asked voters about President Donald Trump’s job performance, 33% approved of the job Trump is doing as president, while 61% disapproved, and 6% were unsure.
Click here for toplines and some crosstabs.
- Proud Papa Bear - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 11:29 am:
That’s odd. Bailey’s secret poll has him within striking distance/s
- Anon62704 - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 11:36 am:
If you account for the pollster bias, the margin of error, and the unreliability of SMS responses, it’s a much rosier picture for Bailey! /s
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 11:38 am:
Looks like about a third of the Republican respondents to this poll are unwilling to identify as Republicans and still claim to be independents. Must be pretty embarrassing to be a Republican these days. The Republican candidates with the worse name recognition are polling better than the Republican with the best name recognition.
Also fun to see Darren doing so well with 2 year degree holders. All of the Republicans, in fact. Trying to decide if that’s due to the significant investment in community colleges in very rural areas that are also Republican or if those community colleges just aren’t as effective at education. These poll results are certainly something for elected officials to keep in mind when we return to the notion of a community college granting 4 year degrees.
Why an associates degree an outlier?
Here’s hoping that 7% is such a small sample it can’t be considered statistically significant, but if it is some how accurate of a trend — what a fun question to explore.
===Bailey’s secret poll has him within striking distance/s ===
Falling on your face counts as striking the floor.
- Think Again - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 11:40 am:
=Gov. JB Pritzker holds a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Darren Bailey=
There is no doubt JB will win; one potential unintended negative of such huge positive polling could be some Dem voters staying home due to the projected landslide. Certainly not enough to help Bailey win, but overall turnout could be impacted
- Lurker - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 11:57 am:
Good to see those numbers amongst those 45 and under. Gives hope.
@Candy: I participated in a poll last month. I had a tough time on the first question. I finally said I was still Republican but yes, I am voting straight Democrat
- NIU Grad - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 12:02 pm:
54% lines up with Pritzker’s percentages from the last two elections. I’ll be curious to see if that (and his total vote share) increases, decreases, or holds steady as indicators for the future.
Not that it matters if the ILGOP stay mired in MAGA Land for the foreseeable future.
- B - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 12:04 pm:
Is this that republican pollster?
Im upset the lead isnt 30
- Paul Peterson - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 12:26 pm:
According to respected pollsters people have actually heard of Democrats have the same anemic favorability as Republican do
No need to gaslight everyone Candy
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/fact-sheet/party-affiliation-fact-sheet-npors/
- JS Mill - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 12:39 pm:
=Why an associates degree an outlier?=
Might have something to do with Bailey having an associates degree?
=No need to gaslight everyone Candy=
Trigger alert for someones feels.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 12:57 pm:
@Paul
What does that have to do with a poll for the Illinois Governor’s race?
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 12:58 pm:
It started with Rauner, the end of the moderate ILGOP. MAGA finished it off. The combo of MAGA and anti-union, anti-tax, red state economy pushing, Illinois trashing doom grifters have doomed (no pun intended) the ILGOP. See Durkin endorsement of Pritzker.
- here we go again - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 1:34 pm:
So bored with people tediously parroting the same old shibboleths about the GOP today in Illinois being too MAGA and right wing, blah blah blah. It’s nonsense. Fact is the Illinois GOP doesn’t stand for anything, beyond the self-preservation of a few remaining survivors. And therein lies the problem. And let’s also not forget that Bruce Rauner, who went full “moderate” on all the social issues, was slaughtered by Pritzker by an even larger margin in 2018 than the margin Bailey was slaughtered by in 2022.
- Steve - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 1:42 pm:
I thought the big question of this election would be whether JB beats Bailey by more than last time. I guess this poll points the way. Baily is the kind of candidate JB wants to run against.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 1:43 pm:
===the GOP today in Illinois being too MAGA and right wing, blah blah blah. It’s nonsense. Fact is the Illinois GOP doesn’t stand for anything, beyond the self-preservation of a few remaining survivors. ===
You’re equating the base with some leaders. Pick a lane.
The base has gone full MAGA. And then they blame the state party for screwing everything up.
It’s all rather hilarious to me.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 1:46 pm:
==same old shibboleths about the GOP today in Illinois being too MAGA and right wing, blah blah blah. It’s nonsense.==
Your candidate for Governor proves you absolutely wrong.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 1:54 pm:
===Your candidate for Governor proves you absolutely wrong. ===
Nah, he’s far too “clever” for that.
What he and so many others have built is this little mind game where they blame all their problems on the state party while ignoring the fact that they can’t nominate anyone electable via a primary because their base is so out of step with the majority in this state.
Don’t ever try to pin the blame on them, though. They’re far too sensitive to accept any responsibility.
It’s not much different than Mayor Johnson and his leftie ilk blaming Michael Sacks for all their own failures.
- here we go again - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 2:10 pm:
Rich, with all due respect, I don’t think you exactly have your finger on the pulse of Illinois GOP doin’s. And as a practical matter, there really is no GOP “state party” to speak of in Illinois, beyond functioning as a mail house for surviving incumbents to utilize its cheaper postage rate. But if there was a state party it should represent its voters. That’s why they are called constituents. And Bailey certainly can’t be called MAGA. Yes I know Bailey begged for Trump’s endorsement in 2022 to help win that primary, but in case you haven’t noticed Bailey and Del Mar scurry away from Trump at every opportunity. As if the man who saved the GOP from oblivion and made the GOP the party of the working class is the problem. Neither Bailey nor Del Mar would even mention Trump’s name at Republican Day in August. Oh yeah, real MAGA. Sheesh. Anyway, in a few weeks we’ll see how that worked out for them.
- fs - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 2:12 pm:
==Fact is the Illinois GOP doesn’t stand for anything, beyond the self-preservation of a few remaining survivors. ==
The far right still trying to play the “we’re fighting the machine and the establishment” schtick is utterly laughable. The fact that you even say that there’s only a “few remaining survivors” (of “the establishment”) is a full blown admittance of that. The Pat Buchanan wing, that morphed into Trump and Maga, has controlled the Illinois gop primaries for a decade now. Congrats, the “rinos” aren’t getting past the primary. The ones who are, as you said, “don’t stand for anything”….which is true. The only thing the base of the party has stood for since 2016 is the ever changing mind of Trump. The current Illinois gop reminds me of the arranged marriage at the beginning of Coming to America. They only believe whatever he wants them to believe, no matter how extreme and crazy it is. If he would say “bark like a dog”, many in red hats and County chairs would simply, and happily ask what breed.
The results have reflected it all.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 2:35 pm:
===Rich, with all due respect, I don’t think you exactly have your finger on the pulse of Illinois GOP doin’s.===
Well, la-dee-da. I’ve been covering this phenomenon for 36 years, so maybe I know a bit more than you realize. Same lame story, different players.
Also, I don’t think you have a single clue about how politics work. It’s all about addition. And when even Darren Bailey is cast aside by you as a RINO, you got yourself intensely insane problems, bubba.
Just ridiculous.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 2:57 pm:
==But if there was a state party it should represent its voters==
Your voters are the problem. Do you really have no desire to ever be relevant in the State of Illinois again? Because that’s where your voters are taking you to.
- Candy Dogood - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 3:04 pm:
===The base has gone full MAGA. And then they blame the state party for screwing everything up.===
The 2010 cycle was the first time I heard someone I would have considered to be a life long Republican explain that they were no longer engaging in their local party because of the other people who were showing up at the meetings.
Over the last 16 years that problem has just gotten worse.
That’s how you get the “Were you there?” candidate.
Anyhow, some people should just be glad that they didn’t have a farm to bet on the Republican Party.
- Frida's Boss - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 3:44 pm:
Almost as shocking a headline as “There will be snow this winter”
- Occasionally Moderated - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 3:59 pm:
Rauner was a moderate? Am I reading this right- my political wonkishness is low compared to dedicated Faxers here but that is not my recollection.
- Cubs in '16 - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 4:40 pm:
===Rauner was a moderate?===
As OW used to say, Rauner was a coastal limousine liberal or something to that effect. His sole focus was busting unions because they hurt his bottom line and those of his wealthy cohorts.
- Timmeh - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 4:53 pm:
Rauner’s belief system is more aligned with current federal moderate Republicans and not MAGA, but was still extreme by many standards. Religious Republicans like would consider Rauner a moderate or RINO because of his votes on abortion. But there were moderate Illinois Republicans during Rauner’s term who objected to how extreme Rauner was on private unions and the way he ran the party.
- Paul Peterson - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 4:58 pm:
Rauner’s record was absolutely socially moderate and fiscally conservative
He signed HB 40 that expanded taxpayer funded abortion through Medicaid and for state employee health insurance.
He also sign the Trust Act which restricted local law enforcement from detaining people solely on their immigration status and he also banned conversion therapy
- Proud Papa Bear - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 5:44 pm:
“And Bailey certainly can’t be called MAGA.”
There are very few statements that get my attention anymore, but this one certainly did.
Trying to distance himself from an extremely unpopular Trump for a few months doesn’t change the fact that Bailey is pure MAGA.
- Boone Logan Square - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 6:00 pm:
Rauner’s initial campaign was a strategy to attract suburban voters. Rauner’s governing and everything the party has done since has been effective in repelling suburban voters. For those reasons, the poll seems to reflect voter sentiments.
- Pundent - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 7:06 pm:
=Rauner’s record was absolutely socially moderate and fiscally conservative=
You can’t let the bill backlog to reach $15B with crushing interest consequences and claim the fiscally conservative mantle. Rauner was about union busting. Everything else was an obstacle standing in the way of that goal.
- Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Oct 6, 26 @ 11:00 pm:
Rich is correct.
Sizeable majorities of the Electorate believe in gay marrriage, abortion rights, and gun control.
You cannot blame the IL GOP for the fact that the Republican Presidential candidate has not won Illinois since 1988.
If Republicans want to win statewide in Illinois, they have to be to be more moderate than the national party, because that is where the electorate is.
Bailey, btw, is underperforming Trump bigly.
It is all just math.