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Arrr! I completely forgot!
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Let us all bring a spring upon her cable and dance the hempen jig in the comment section. Avast, bilge rats!
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Defiance as diversion *** Updated x3 ***
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Well, here’s one way to spin bad news. The Auditor General releases a report that shows the I-SaveRx plan is an expensive mess and violates federal law and the governor issues a press release announcing that he’s expanding the program. Here’s a couple of grafs from the guv’s press release: Governor Rod R. Blagojevich today announced that the State of Illinois will expand its innovative I-SaveRx drug importation program to state employees and dependents. Currently, the program is available and intended for senior citizens and the uninsured, and covers the citizens of Illinois, Kansas, Wisconsin, Missouri and Vermont. […] But that’s not all the Auditor General reported. Check out the screen cap below. They spent a half million dollars in staff costs for a measly 17,575 prescriptions in 19 months, plus hundreds of thousands more in support costs. So, the taxpayer overhead on this thing is roughly $50 per prescription filled by the program..
The audit can be found here. *** UPDATE *** The AP story is now up. *** UPDATE 2 *** Acccording to the audit, the $220,000 in legal fees were exemped from the competitive bidding process. $144,000 of that was an agreement the governor’s own office entered into with a Washington, DC law firm. And as far as those travel costs? We also found that most travel was not approved prior to departure as stated in travel regulations. *** UPDATE 3 *** It looks like the flu vaccine debacle was even worse. Check the audit.
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Parental notification moves forward a notch
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The Tribune has details. In a victory for those seeking stricter limits on abortion, the Illinois Supreme Court decided Monday to revive a long-dormant state law that prohibits minors from obtaining abortions without notifying a parent. According to the article, no date has been set for issuing the new rules yet, but the ACLU, Lisa Madigan or others could challenge them. Read the whole story for more. OneMan asks whether this might have any impact on races this November. Good question.
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Schock’s new TV ad; Flider; Granberg; Soto; Haring; Unions; Women guvs; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x2 ***
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Handicap your local state legislative race. Notice, I didn’t say Congress. This is for state legislative races only, please. Also, tell us what, if anything, is happening in that race.
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First negative ads by JBT
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller There are actually two new ads running. One is the ad described in the Daily Herald piece below. The other (also in the DH story but way down) slams the guv as a guy who promised to stop the budget games but “raided $2.3 billion from pension funds” and now the state has the “biggest deficit in the nation.” The tagline for both 15 second ads is “Had enough?” Ironically, Newt Gingrich suggested that the national Democrats use that line to seize control of Congress from the Republicans. Republican governor candidate Judy Baar Topinka unleashed a hard-hitting TV assault Monday against Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich, comparing him to his convicted predecessor George Ryan. I’ll upload at least one of the ads in a few minutes.
This is the ad that the DH wrote about. It’s called “The Check.” [YouTube] Click here for the budget ad [YouTube]. [Gordy Hulten at IlliniPundit did what I should have done and uploaded the ads to YouTube. The links have been changed.]
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Showdown in the 17th
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The two candidates in the 17th Congressional District faced off for the first time yesterday. As usual, red herrings and bugaboos were fully on display. Republican congressional candidate Andrea Zinga sought Monday to link her opponent to a possible impeachment of President Bush and to Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s ethics problems. That Pelosi argument seems more than a bit weak on several levels. Zinga’s own poll (just 300 respondents, making the margin of error stupendously high, but it’s her poll so that’s the one she uses to make her game plan) showed that 75 percent of likely voters in the district had either never heard of Pelosi or didn’t know enough about her to have an opinion. 49 percent strongly disapprove of President Bush’s job performance, while another 12 percent somewhat disapproved. Meanwhile, she also sought to link Hare and Gov. Blagojevich. [Zinga] said one of Hare’s key backers works in Blagojevich’s patronage office, where “they have put aside veterans who have preferential hiring in order to hire campaign contributors.” That would most likely be John Gianulis, a top patronage official in the governor’s office. John G is the chairman of the Rock Island County Democratic Party and helped engineer Hare’s victory in the precinct committeeman primary to replace Lane Evans. What have you heard about this race lately?
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Another splash
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Once again, Comptroller Dan Hynes, has managed to make a big media splash. That’s twice in a week. Last week it was the “Barack should run for president” press conference. Yesterday, he warned of an impending state crisis. Paying increased costs for employee pensions, health care for the poor and debt service will eat up virtually all new money the state can expect to bring in over the next three years, Comptroller Dan Hynes said Monday. It’s not easy for a comptroller in a ho-hum race to get publicity, but give Hynes credit for rising to the challenge. It’s also a serious issue, of course. One day, one way or another, the piper is gonna have to be paid. [Some readers have noted that Hynes is essentially slamming the guv close to an election. I must admit I hadn’t thought of that angle (I must be slipping). But they make a good point.]
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Morning shorts
Tuesday, Sep 19, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * It’s spreading: Critics cry foul over gov’s move to fund one school * Another 400-person CS-T poll allows Tony Peraica to denouce its results as “fundamentally flawed.” Meanwhile Christine Radogno also questioned the results of the CS-T poll done in her race. * “A federal jury on Monday convicted a former high-ranking Illinois Secretary of State official of helping three janitors pocket more than $150,000 in state pay for work they didn’t do.” * Topinka focuses on women’s health * Madigan: Power auction unfair - Attorney general asks court to void results * Oy: “One is a shaggy-haired boy, now 16. Another, a distressed elder brother. Then there’s the bewildered woman, just barely 18. And two older women who say they were overwhelmed with drugs and sex. Their video statements, recorded in April for East Alton attorney Ed Unsell and made available to the Post-Dispatch, present a clearer and more emotional picture of the child sex and drug abuse allegations against former attorney and Metro East power broker Tom Lakin. The accusations paint Lakin - publicly an accomplished lawyer and political boss - as a free-wheeling man of sexual avarice.” * More coverage of and reaction to yesterday’s landmark appellate court ruling on independent candidates in Illinois can be found here, here, here and here. * Stu Rothenberg: “Over the past year or so, I’ve heard more than a few people talking about 2006 as an anti-incumbent election. Well, those people are wrong. We are not going to have an anti-incumbent election in November. We are going to have an anti-Bush election.” * Two state workers ticketed for smoking in a state-leased building. * Ethanol faces uphill road in US
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This just in… US appeals court strikes down IL ballot access laws *** Updated x1 ***
Monday, Sep 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The case in question had to do with an independent legislative candidate. The Court’s website appears to be running very slowly today, but I’ll upload the opinion in a minute. [OK, it’s uploaded now. Here’s the pdf file.] In combination, the ballot access requirements for independent legislative candidates in Illinois—the early filing deadline, the 10% signature requirement, and the additional statutory restriction that disqualifies anyone who signs an independent candidate’s nominating petition from voting in the primary—operate to unconstitutionally burden the freedom of political association guaranteed by the First and Fourteenth Amendments. Katie, bar the door. *** UPDATE *** The AP story is now online. Lee had wanted to run for the Senate in the 44th legislative district in 2004 but believed that he would never have been able to get enough signatures on his nominating petitions under state ballot-access laws.
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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Axley; Syverson; Flider; RTA; Target feed (Use all caps in password) *** Updated x1 ***
Monday, Sep 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller
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Question of the day
Monday, Sep 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller Handicap your local congressional race. Also, tell us if there’s anything new going on in the campaign.
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Moving Illinois Forward
Monday, Sep 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller For the second Sunday in a row, the Tribune has a front-page story on Gov. Rod Blagojevich. This one is not at all surprising. Skirting state hiring rules, Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration gave jobs to at least 360 people whose applications were sent through back channels by the governor’s office and other political heavyweights, a Tribune investigation has found. Go read the whole thing.
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Check story keeps bouncing back
Monday, Sep 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller The columnists aren’t letting this story go away. This is my roundabout way of saying Gov. Blagojevich’s explanations of the $1,500 check a pal gave to his daughter on her 7th birthday do not wash in the real world. It’s excessive, disproportional and no excuse stands up to scrutiny. (If it’s a tradition, what did he give her the year before?) * Eric Zorn: It’s simple enough that people are talking about it–not just the news nerds and political junkies, but the average voters: the people whose impressions of public figures aren’t based on encyclopedic knowledge of every last policy and program but on broader impressions. * Chicago Sun-Times editorial board: The governor says it’s an “outrage” he has to answer questions about the gift. What’s outrageous is that the governor, who likes to see himself as a man of the people and a corruption-buster, doesn’t get why, at the very least, his acceptance of this gift contradicts that self-view. * Yours truly: But even aside from the criminality, what sort of a governor accepts a $1,500 gift for his kid from a friend of modest means just after he put the guy’s wife into a nice little state job? If this is completely innocent, didn’t any alarm bells go off in the governor’s head? And what kind of a governor then neglects to report this gift, and several others, on his ethics forms for years, and then only reports them after the FBI comes calling? * Doug Finke really nails this one. Some people seem to have a lot of good luck, and some seem to have a lot of bad luck. Then there are people who seem to have an unusual number of coincidences, like Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
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Morning shorts
Monday, Sep 18, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller * Dawn Turner Rice: “I know, I know. You’re thinking: ‘In the end, ComEd is a company and all viable companies have to turn a profit.’ Last year, ComEd says it made $527 million in profits. Exelon, ComEd’s parent, made $2.1 billion last year.” * Gov. Gets Maximum Publicity From Old Practice * “The turnout campaign that Republican operatives used to help pull Sen. Lincoln D. Chafee to victory in the Rhode Island primary was a potent demonstration of how money and manpower can transform a race even in an unfavorable political environment — and a preview of the strategy that national party officials say they plan to replicate in the most competitive House and Senate races over the next 55 days.” * “A sophisticated and previously unrevealed experiment by Democratic interest groups could provide Democratic candidates in as many as nine states with an unanticipated edge in the November elections.” * Editorial: “Nope, our ‘competition’ here in Illinois won’t actually include new companies moving here to give ComEd a run for its money. Instead, we’ll be limited to those vaunted commodities markets, to which these little auctions are inexplicably linked. And as we’ve seen recently with oil and gas, these markets are easily manipulated by the big players and vulnerable to even the smallest rumor of a supply disruption halfway around the world.” * Kadner: Feel-good school groups no match for politicians * McQueary: Tabling my cynicism, for now * Prosecutors dig for new cases as Ryan fades away * Um, huh? “Jesse Jackson Jr. Criticizes Daley - Congressman Says Race Should Not Be Injected In Big-Box Ordinance Issue” * Surplus auction to go live on Web - State sees it as way to increase revenue * Trouble: “Spending by local governments in Northeast Illinois rose nearly twice as fast as governments’ revenue in the first half of the decade, according to a study by the Civic Federation, set for release Monday. The taxpayer advocacy group says per-capita spending by local governments in the six-county region rose 14% from 2000 to 2004, while revenue grew 7.8%. Local governments’ long-term debt level, meanwhile, rose 33.2%. ‘When your debt level is growing faster than your revenue, that’s a sure sign of financial stress,’ says Laurence Msall, president of the federation. Employee salaries, pensions and health care expenses accounted for much of the additional spending.” * Administration fails to follow letter of the law on AllKids mailer * Brown: Ryan doesn’t deserve one more penny from pension * In Illinois, people are being sent to jail for this sort of hiring. * No Rockford debate for Blagojevich, Topinka * To debate or not debate? That’s the question for Blagojevich * Mitchell: Gov, Stroger must learn there’s no crying in politics * Schools will test the next governor * I think Topinka ought to hit up Jim Edgar for a piece of this big win at the track. * Maximum discord on minimum wage
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Outlier? 56-26-3 - Updated x2
Sunday, Sep 17, 2006 - Posted by Rich Miller About one in twenty polls are “wrong.” It’s the nature of the business. That’s why you can’t just consider one poll when looking at a race (it’s also why I set up the statewide polling page, so you could look at all recent polling). Also, the smaller the sample size, the more likely it is that the poll is wrong. The latest Sun-Times/NBC5 poll of the governor’s race surveyed just 400 people. That’s embarrassingly small. It’s the usual sample size for a quickie state legislative poll (300 is the absolute bare minimum in those races), not a statewide survey. But I wonder whether the new Sun-Times poll - which shows a gigantic 30-point lead by Gov. Blagojevich - will be put into perspective by the mainstream media, where things are looked at with a more simplistic bent (although Paul Green, to his credit, reportedly said on City Desk this morning that he didn’t believe the results). The resulting headlines are not gonna be good for Topinka and will only strengthen the “inevitability factor” for Gov. Blagojevich. The CS-T will publish these numbers online soon, but they were released this morning on City Desk and sent to me by an alert reader. Blagojevich 56% Because nothing major has happened in the governor’s favor in the few days since either the Tribune poll or the Rasmussen poll were taken, which both had Blagojevich below 50, this looks a lot like an outlier. Also, compare this result to the last five polls and you can obviously see a difference. Plus, if the governor’s campaign had poll results even close to this, I imagine they’d release them. Comments will be opened on Monday. [Hat tip: wndycty} *** UPDATE *** The Sun-Times story is now up. They make some defenses of the poll in the piece, including the fact that they’ve been using that dinky sample size in polls for eight years. Being close to right about Glenn Poshard in 1998, however, is still no excuse for cheaping out. As I recall, almost nobody believed that poll, either - for the same reason. Also, the pollster apparently overweighted Democrats in the original sample and went back and weighted the results to achieve a 47-30 Dem-GOP partisan split. The result after the weighting was 51-30, Blagojevich over Topinka. And here is yesterday’s NBC5 report, which a reader uploaded to YouTube. Those of you who read the NBC5 report online are forgiven for thinking that the sample was city only. It wasn’t. Comments are now open. *** UPDATE 2 *** Carol Marin’s column yesterday warns readers not to get too excited about Topinka’s current predicament. Take 1980 when, according to the polls, Cook County State’s Attorney Bernard Carey was going to clobber challenger Richard M. Daley by 20 points.
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