David Barkhausen is a former GOP state Senator and state House member who lives in Lake Bluff, sits on the Lake Bluff Village Board, and chairs the Shields Township Republican Organization. He sent this around to friends of his, and he agreed to punch it up a bit for us.

Sorry about the length, but it was too good to pass up.

At the Lake County Republican Federation dinner the week before the election, Congressman Tom Cole of Oklahoma, a very articulate and thoughtful speaker, urged the assembled faithful to help achieve not just a Presidential victory but a national Republican mandate as well. He said it was important for President Bush not just to win the electoral vote through the “battleground states” but also to gain a national majority. He pointed out that the Nixon and Reagan re-elections were landslide presidential victories with little or no other national impact. The 1980 presidential election and 1994 and 2002 Congressional elections, by contrast, were clearly national Republican victories. To those, we can happily and thankfully add the just-concluded 2004 campaign. But what about Illinois? How frustrating and embarrassing – if, by now, not surprising - to be a skunk at the Republican victory party.

The Illinois aberration: It is, of course, a matter of great concern and perhaps some bewilderment that Illinois has fallen from its status as a classic bellwether state like Ohio to the dubious distinction of “the Massachusetts of the Midwest,” while other Midwestern states that were traditionally more Democratic than Illinois – Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota – have become much more competitive (even though President Bush narrowly lost each). I see three or four reasons.

The first and perhaps easiest to overcome is the ethics problem. George Ryan’s and related criminal investigations and convictions have made Republicans seem at least as guilty of instances of official misconduct as Democrats have historically been. At the moment, it is the Republican-connected operatives who seem to be in the dock. In time, that should change, especially as Democrats, who seem less than squeaky clean, have gained most of the reins of power. Conflicts of interest, real or perceived, are politically lethal. Republicans need to regain the upper hand on the ethics issue in Illinois, and I believe they will over time. Clearly, the most valuable aspect of Peter Fitzgerald’s one-term tenure in the U.S. Senate was his principled insistence on the appointment of Patrick Fitzgerald as U.S. Attorney. Maybe this new Fitzgerald will one day be a Republican candidate in a white hat in the manner of the 1976 Jim Thompson who swept to election as governor with a margin of over 1 million votes.

The second factor is the clever and entrenched leadership of Illinois’ two principal Democrats – Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, now completing his 24th year as the Democratic leader in Springfield, and Mayor Daley II. Madigan has succeeded in recruiting, electing, and then protecting candidates who seem somewhat moderate or conservative in parts of the state that are not that friendly to Democratic presidential candidates. Daley seems to retain a popularity that withstands very serious ethical/criminal problems at high levels of his administration and his own thin-skinned non-response to any probing questions about them. The Irish Catholic background of this leadership and its cultural conservatism inoculates Madigan and Daley and their party from charges that they are out of step with the mainstream. I doubt our neighboring states have Democratic leaders of such durability and relative conservatism. It is a fact of life that Republicans stand to make greater gains, as they did when Harold Washington was Mayor, when the Democratic leadership is perceived as extreme than when it is more attuned to the crowd that you might find at a bowling alley. However, it is likely that this Democratic leadership will change over the next 10 years and bring Republican opportunities at the same time.

Demographics are the most intractable factor, however. When Republicans at the presidential level lose the black vote by 9-1, and the Hispanic and Jewish vote in Illinois by perhaps at least 3-1, there are simply not enough areas that favor Republicans by sufficiently lopsided margins to overcome that deficit. The trends among more educated and affluent voters, especially among the professional classes, are also devastating to the previous Republican strength in the suburbs. The baby boom generation has had it drummed into them since their college days by academia and the establishment media since then that they have to be liberal, or at least moderate, in order to be “enlightened” and that conservatism equates to anti-intellectualism. Contrary views are embarrassing and socially taboo. It becomes instinctive to oppose a Republican backed by “right wing religious zealots” even if the Democrat panders on social security, free trade, tort reform, and inner city school choice, betrays weakness on national security issues, and seeks to foment and capitalize on class and racial resentments. That the Chicago area, and especially the North Shore, rank in the top tier of areas populated by voters with the same sensibilities as those in the “coastal cultural cocoon” explains much of the suburban erosion of Republican support. It is not a new problem. It was evident with the 1992 Democratic primary and general election of Carol Mosely Braun, and, even more so, in the fact, that, by a slim margin, Barack Obama lured more voters into the Democratic primary in Lake County than the Republican candidates, all social conservatives, motivated to participate in the Republican contest – in spite of the dearth of Democratic organization in Lake County in comparison to Republican efforts.

One additional problem deserves mention. In the Cook County suburbs, certain previously Republican enclaves of a “rotten borough” nature, where Republicanism was dependent on corrupt local politics, have collapsed. These were in Cicero Township on the west side and Bloom Township (Chicago Heights) in the far southeast suburbs. The overall Republicanism of the Cook County suburbs previously helped to offset heavy Democrat majorities in the City. No longer. Democrats have many strong Cook County suburban areas themselves of an ultra-left (e.g., nuclear-free Evanston and Skokie) or an increasingly minority nature (e.g., Thornton Township). Outer Republican suburbs and parts of downstate cannot compensate.

The combination of these factors seems so problematic that it is hard to see how Republicans overcome them with the formula that seems to be working for now on the national level. Illinois’ demographics and politics no longer really present a microcosm of the country’s, and Republicans here will have to adapt. As Democrats like Gov. Blagojevich make mistakes and lose favor, Republicans should be able to take advantage – but not without the strongest possible candidates with broad appeal and the ability to articulate a compelling alternative that is not simply focused on short-term political advantage.

The Illinois Supreme Court Race: One of the most heartening of the Illinois’ results was the decisive victory of the Republican candidate, Circuit Court Judge Lloyd Karmeier, against the Democrat, Appellate Court Judge Gordon Maag, in far southern Illinois. It is quite a strongly Democratic area. Maag was effectively tagged as a tool of the plaintiffs’ personal injury lawyers who have, along with organized labor, dominated the politics of Madison and St. Clair Counties. Maag is from Madison County and was previously associated with one of the personal injury firms. Judge Karmeier not only won but carried both Madison, the class action haven, and St. Clair Counties. Maag not only lost the Supreme Court race but also failed to be retained as an Appellate Court judge. It was an astounding result and shows that the medical malpractice problem and the enormous wealth and influence of the Democratic lawyers in blocking an effective solution have real traction as current and future issues for Republicans.

It will not be an easy road back for Illinois Republicans. We need to begin now to find common ground among ourselves after a divisive year and identify and get behind leaders with a credible message that can capture the public’s attention and imagination. In any case, as Congressman Cole emphasized, it is important for us all to do our part wherever we live and whatever the odds and circumstances of the moment to help chart a course towards a more secure and prosperous future and greater opportunity for all.