* I noticed a lack of coverage of a few tax and spend-related issues when I returned from vacation.

* The first example really isn’t a surprise, but it’s the first time that House Speaker Michael Madigan has come out and directly said that Illinois is heading for a tax increase, one way or another…

“Before we finish the budget in May or June, Illinois is going to need a tax increase,” said Madigan, a Chicago Democrat, during an appearance this week at the College of Lake County’s Lakeshore Campus in Waukegan. “You’ve heard it many, many times: We need more and better education. That takes money.”

Madigan contends a state budget relying solely on the current tax structure would be unable to garner enough votes for approval. It’s projected that the state will have an additional $1 billion in the budget to spend if no changes are made to state taxes. But nearly $600 million of that is legally obligated to the state pension system.

The remaining $400 million likely isn’t enough to appease lawmakers who want to see meaningful increases in education spending, health care, law enforcement and other programs and projects.

“The notion you could find a majority in the House or Senate to vote for a budget under those circumstances, I think the speaker feels is pretty remote,” Madigan spokesman Steve Brown elaborated Thursday.

* Last Monday, AFSCME executive director Henry Bayer sent a memo to his local presidents announcing that the governor had backed off his plan to lay off 203 Department of Corrections employees. The initial layoff decision followed the recommendations of a year-long study of staffing levels, at a cost to taxpayers of $450,000. AFSCME has long complained about low staffing levels throughout many important state agencies.

* AFSCME then endorsed the governor’s gross receipts tax proposal. The union and the governor both deny there was any quid pro quo.

* AFSCME won’t endorse the governor’s budget, however. The union wants to see much more money spent on frontline staff. But, as YDD notes over at Illinoize, AFSCME’S favorable nod for the GRT could finally bring in the Illinois AFL-CIO, which has been sidelined while AFSCME worked out a deal.

As Capitol Fax reported earlier, AFSCME’s lukewarm reception to the GRT was standing in the way of an AFL-CIO endorsement of the GRT. That obstacle appears to have been removed now. I doubt an all-out push from the AFL-CIO is all that far behind, especially since former AFL-CIO head Margaret Blackshere chairs the committee paying for all of the Governor’s t.v. ads. […]

Although it’s a small step, the AFSCME endorsement could result in a giant leap if the leash comes off the AFL-CIO. Full engagement of the AFL-CIO means it will be difficult for Speaker Madigan to act as the lone stopper for the Governor’s plan, sans a viable alternative.

* Capitol Fax subscribers heard about this development a couple of weeks ago, although the publication wasn’t credited in last week’s SJ-R story…

llinois State Police removed the security detail assigned for more than a year to state Comptroller Dan Hynes and denied state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias protection he requested for a Chicago event within days of the two officeholders criticism of Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s business-tax plan.

Spokespeople for Hynes and Giannoulias question the timing. But a spokeswoman for the governor strongly denied that security decisions by state police - who are under the control of the governor - have anything to do with policy positions taken by the statewide elected leaders. […]

Cmdr. Mark Piccoli, head of the executive protection unit within the state police, said that for constitutional officers other than the governor, protection is “based on threat assessment.” […]

But Scott Burnham, spokesman for Giannoulias, said the treasurer twice received police protection for large events in the past when no threats were involved.

* Meanwhile, you probably heard about these developments because they are nepotism items…

Soon to marry one of Illinois’ most powerful politicians, Lorrie Rickman Stone was promoted to a new state job in September 2005.

Two months later, she wed Senate President Emil Jones. And two months after that, her salary had soared by nearly $70,000.

The Blagojevich administration created a special salary class for her position alone, so the psychologist - now Lorrie Rickman Jones - saw her pay rise from $116,460 to $186,000, a 60 percent increase, The Associated Press found after a review of state documents.

And…

The Blagojevich administration rescinded its rule that the state’s mental health chief be a medical doctor just before the wife of Senate President Emil Jones got the job.

A top Jones aide and the state Department of Human Services insist the promotion of Lorrie Jones, a psychologist, was legitimate under state law. But a government watchdog called the move “curious” given that the job was tailor-made for the spouse of Blagojevich’s top legislative ally.

And…

Gov. Blagojevich’s administration hired Senate President Emil Jones’ son for a $57,360-a-year state commerce job at the same time Jones emerged as the chief legislative advocate for a contentious new business tax pushed by the governor.

Emil Jones III began as the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity’s manager of real estate development April 3.

* More tax and spend stories, compiled by Paul Richardson…

* Report: $466 million could be saved by shifting health insurance burden

* Rep. Jefferson supports Gov’s tax proposal

* Two area legislators say tax plan unlikely to pass as is

* Big issues left for lawmakers this session

* Battle over GRT rages on

* Quinn feuds with governor on tax plan, electric rates

* Expert: Governor’s plan rejects necessary ‘backroom deals’

* Gov pals frequent fliers on state planes; Topinka responds

*** UPDATE *** Aaron Chambers tells us that the Senate will have a hearing on the GRT this Wednesday, but there will be no vote…

Senate President Emil Jones Jr., D-Chicago, backs the governor’s plan. And at 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jones will convene a hearing on it.

Committee members are not expected to vote Wednesday, however. Jones spokeswoman Cindy Davidsmeyer told me Friday that senators need more time to soak up the governor’s plan.

Judging from the chilly reception that Blagojevich has received from lawmakers since he announced his concept in early March, I’m guessing that the committee won’t be voting simply because Jones has not mustered enough support among his Democrats to win committee approval.