It’s not as clear as it looks
Thursday, May 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is a must-read story from WBEZ…
The one chance for Chicago City Council members to question Eddie Johnson before approving him as police superintendent was an April 12 council hearing.
The city’s murder numbers were way up. But the police department was still staggering from the fallout of a video that showed an officer fatally shooting 17-year-old Laquan McDonald.
The number of police stops had fallen off a cliff.
Some council members wanted Johnson to tell how he would increase that number. “How do we get the officers to do it?” Alderman Patrick Daley Thompson asked.
Johnson answered that the department had taken one step already. It had trimmed back the length of a report that officers had to fill out for each stop. “Every week we’re seeing [an] uptick in terms of the utilization of those forms,” he said. “So we’ll get there.”
Unquestioned at the hearing was an assumption: Police stops make the community safer.
But police department datasets reveal a complicated picture. The records, obtained by WBEZ through the Illinois Freedom of Information Act, show negative trends as officers reported more stops: The gun seizures dropped, detectives solved fewer murders, and a decade-long decline in gun violence ended.
Those numbers did not improve as the department developed one of the most intense stop-and-frisk programs in the nation.
Go read the whole thing.
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EIU warns that stopgap won’t be nearly enough
Thursday, May 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tom Kacich…
Without another influx of state funds, Eastern Illinois President David Glassman told state legislators Wednesday, the university may have to make another round of employee layoffs later this summer.
In a stopgap budget agreement last month, lawmakers gave the state’s higher education system some $600 million, about $12.5 million of which went to Eastern. In Eastern’s case, that is 30 percent of a normal year’s appropriation.
But Glassman and other university officials told the House Higher Education Committee on Wednesday that more money is needed.
EIU’s $12.5 million will be gone before the fall semester begins, Glassman said.
“In fact, the stopgap funding in real dollars is so low for EIU that it will likely necessitate additional layoffs beginning in late summer. This is the only way we can achieve the cost reductions necessary to make up for the absent appropriations,” he said. “Insufficient funds equal more layoffs.”
* Related…
* Campus cuts: 50 ways the state budget impasse impacts the University
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Today’s lede
Thursday, May 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Oh, man…
With deaths from drug overdoses surpassing traffic accidents as the No. 1 accidental killer of Americans, a group of community stakeholders Wednesday stressed that a different approach to fighting the problem has to be taken.
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Fun with numbers
Thursday, May 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Let’s circle back to the Illinois Department of Revenue’s use of dynamic scoring that helped kill off a progressive income tax. You’ll recall that the scoring came up with these results…
After 14 years of implementation of this tax policy (year 2030) the main economic effects of this tax policy are:
* Disposable Personal Income decreases $2.8 Billion per year compared with the baseline scenario (current conditions and economic trend).
* Real Gross Domestic Product of the state decreases $1.7 Billion compared with the baseline scenario (current conditions and economic trend).
* Total Employment decreases almost 18,000 jobs compared with the baseline scenario (current conditions and economic trend).
* Governing magazine…
While dynamic models do not generate a margin-of-error estimate for dynamic effects, research has shown that traditional revenue estimates carry an error rate of around 3 percent.
* Wordslinger did the math…
The projections from “Gov. Rauner’s Department of Revenue” are ridiculously precise, given the scales of the base numbers and all the dynamics that go into economic forecasting.
Wow, those guys are goooooood. Who’s doin’ the modelin’ and projectin’ — freakin’ sharks with freakin’ lasers on their heads?
Yet not even ballpark projections on the ROI for The Turnaround Agenda. Go figure. Or not, in this case.
I’m thinking they just made it up on the fly and nobody put the “work” to the Absurdity Test. They were supposed to add some zeroes on the back ends of those “projections.”
And he didn’t even factor into the equation that these projections cover a time period of 14 years.
There is simply no way to say with any sort of authority that these statistically tiny predicted changes have any solid significance.
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* AFSCME commissioned a Public Policy Polling poll in appointed GOP Rep. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez’s Springfield-area district…
The poll found that 37 percent approved of the job Rauner is doing, while 54 percent disapproved and 9 percent were not sure. Rauner’s approval slipped since a similar survey in August 2015, the firm said, when approval was 45 percent and disapproval was 47 percent.
The new poll also found that job approval for Jimenez was 35 percent, with 30 percent disapproving and 35 percent unsure.
This was an automated poll of 552 voters April 14-17 with an MOE of +/-4.2 percent.
* One question asked about AFSCME’s bill that would “avoid a strike or lockout of state workers.” It was backed 60-22…
Another poll question states that Rauner says the bill “takes power from the governor and gives it to unelected arbitrators who are biased toward unions and would make state government too costly. State workers say lawmakers should override the governor’s (expected) veto because the arbitrator is chosen by both sides to be independent and fair, and that the process would help make certain that important public services are not disrupted by a strike or lockout.” Asked which side they agreed with, 58 percent said the state workers, and 32 percent said the governor.
* However…
Yet another question asks if people would be more likely to vote for Jimenez or the Democratic challenger if she “sides with Governor Rauner’s (expected) veto of the arbitration bill, forcing state employees to accept the governor’s terms or go on strike and shut down state government. …” In response, 32 percent said they would be more likely to vote for Jimenez, while 47 percent said the push would be toward the Democrat. Another 17 percent said the issue would have no impact, and 4 percent didn’t know.
47 percent means the issue probably isn’t “moving” voters enough to change the election’s outcome.
But, man, the governor sure is one unpopular dude in that GOP district.
…Adding… The full polling memo is here. Respondents said they voted for Romney over Obama 48-38.
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Why the hostages sued
Thursday, May 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Mark Brown focuses on one of the plaintiffs in the $100 million lawsuit filed against the state yesterday by social service providers which have state contracts, but haven’t been paid because the governor vetoed their appropriations and nothing’s been accomplished since…
[Metropolitan Family Services, which is owed nearly $2 million by the state] has already informed state officials and its own workers that it will discontinue four state programs serving 900 people if there is no state appropriation to fund them by June 30.
The programs slated for closing include small group homes for people with mental health issues, a counseling program for juveniles at risk of winding up in prison, mental health services for children under age 6 who have been the victims of severe trauma, and home visitation services for teenage mothers and their children. […]
Estrada said state officials were disappointed to learn of his agency’s plan to halt the four programs and urged it to continue to provide the services.
“They said, ‘Couldn’t you pay for this privately?’” Estrada said.
Estrada had to explain that private donations, which the organization already solicits, couldn’t possibly cover the gap.
This is the point where somebody always writes me to say the wealthy Rauner should just pay for it himself.
Sorry, even he doesn’t have enough money to fill all the holes created by his intransigence on the budget.
You could hardly find a more vulnerable population that mental health group homes, child victims of severe trauma, impoverished teenage moms and juveniles at risk of going to prison.
This stalemate needs to end.
* Tribune…
Coalition chair Andrea Durbin said the state’s contracts with providers contain a clause that allows the state to cancel or suspend the contracts if there’s no money to pay for the services, but the Rauner administration instead kept the contracts going.
“We’ve been held accountable to the contracts. We’ve been asked to deliver services, to report our data, to participate in program oversight,” Durbin said. “You can’t with one hand ask people to do work and with the other hand deny them the ability to be paid.”
Durbin cast the lawsuit as “strictly a business case,” saying the state’s failure to make good on its debts to the providers has a ripple effect on banks, creditors and landlords who also do business with the providers.
* SJ-R…
The lawsuit, which also targets the directors of the Department on Aging and the departments of Human Services, Public Health, Healthcare and Family Services and Corrections, claims Rauner created an “unconstitutional impairment” of the contracts in his June 25, 2015, veto because the administration subsequently insisted on enforcing contract terms despite having no money to pay.
The complaint also alleges the veto ruled out the normal remedy for such situations. Unpaid state bills go to the Court of Claims, which awards payment based on contracts backed by spending authorized by the governor.
The complaint demands immediate payment. No hearing has been scheduled.
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* And another one’s gone…
An Illinois House plan to change the way legislative district maps are drawn in the state died in a Senate subcommittee Wednesday.
Two Democrats on a subcommittee of the Senate Judiciary Committee voted against sending the proposed constitutional amendment to the full Senate for a vote. The lone Republican on the panel voted in favor.
The proposed amendment, which easily passed the House on Tuesday, would create an independent commission to draw the legislative district boundaries after each 10-year census. The commission would be appointed by the senior Republican and Democratic justices on the Illinois Supreme Court. The proposal also calls for extensive public hearings before a map is approved and requires that minority voting interests be protected. […]
“I am disappointed that as a result of today’s vote, the General Assembly will not offer the voters of Illinois a better way, a procedure by which constituents can choose their representatives and not the other way around,” [sponsoring state Sen. Heather Steans, D-Chicago] said.
The proposal was sponsored by Rep. Jack Franks and passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support.
* Meanwhile…
Independent Map Amendment Petitions to be Delivered to State Board of Elections in Springfield at 11:30 a.m. Friday
SPRINGFIELD — A yearlong statewide petition drive for a constitutional amendment to create an independent commission to draw legislative maps will end Friday when petitions with nearly 600,000 signatures are delivered to the State Board of Elections in Springfield.
A semi-truck will deliver the petitions at 11:30 a.m. Friday when Dennis FitzSimons, Chair of the Independent Maps coalition, will turn over the petitions to state officials.
The Independent Map Amendment would create an independent commission to draw Illinois General Assembly districts in a process that is transparent, impartial and fair.
Independent Maps will submit petitions with more than twice the mandated minimum 290,216 signatures of registered voters.
WHEN: 11:30 a.m. Friday, May 6
WHERE: Illinois State Board of Elections
2329 S. MacArthur Blvd., Springfield
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CTU proposes concrete revenue plan
Thursday, May 5, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Chicago Teachers Union has released a $502 million wish list of revenue that the city can tap without state action…
Reinstate and increase the Corporate Employer Expense Tax (“Head Tax”) – Reinstate and increase the Employers Expense Tax at four times the previous level. Annual Revenue Potential: $94 million
Personal Property Lease Tax (Mun. Code Ref. 3-32) - Increase the Personal Property Lease Tax rate from 9.0% to 11.0%. This most impacts people visiting from outside of Chicago when they rent vehicles. Annual Revenue Potential: $35 million
Rideshare Tax - Impose a tax on ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft. Annual Revenue Potential: $15 million
TIF Surplus – Make funds in the city’s 150-plus TIF accounts that are not already tied to debt service or an active project available for use to address the funding needs at the Chicago Public Schools. Declare surplus funds and distribute those funds immediately. Increase reporting requirements for improved transparency on TIF accounts. Annual Revenue Potential: $100 million
Chicago Hotel Accommodations Tax (Mun. Code Ref. 3-24) – Increase the City’s Hotel Accommodations Tax from 4.5% to 6.0%. Annual Revenue Potential: $30 million
Commercial Property Tax assessment - Upon the sale of a building, the assessed valuation is automatically set at 25% of sale price. Annual Revenue Potential: $100 million
Chicago Vehicle Fuel Tax (Mun. Code Ref. 3-52) – The City’s current rate of 5 cents/gallon generates an estimated $48.9 million per year (FY 2015). Due to falling gas prices over the past few years, an additional 10 cents may be imposed without consumers feeling as much pain as other tax increases. Annual Revenue Potential: $98 million
Special Service Area (SSA) Tax Levy (35 ILCS 200/27-5) – Under Illinois law, the City of Chicago has the authority to establish special service areas within the City of Chicago and levy taxes (on the properties within the SSA boundaries) to fund debt service and/or annual operations associated with the special municipal services and related capital improvements. Conceptually, the City could create special service areas to pay for certain educational programs, which are only offered in certain geographic areas of the City or CPS capital improvements, which only benefit a well-defined geography. Annual Revenue Potential: $100 million
Redirect $1.2 billion Lucas Museum Bond to Chicago Public Schools – It looks like a museum on the lakefront for a billionaire’s private collection is not viable. Now we have an opportunity to redirect those critical resources to 400,000 students in CPS. Revenue Potential : $30 million
The CTU also said it would sunset all the revenue ideas in 2019, “at the conclusion of what CTU expects to be Governor Bruce Rauner’s first and only term in office and when the first session of the Illinois General Assembly without his interference ends.” OK, but what if he’s reelected?
Also, the school system has a $1.1 billion structural deficit, so the union’s plan only gets it to the halfway point.
* Greg Hinz has some thoughts and react…
Let’s just say that anyone who buys gasoline, owns commercial property, rides on Uber or Lyft, stays in a hotel or operates a business that employs people will not be happy. […]
Heading the list is $94 million a year from reinstating—at a quadrupled rate—the city’s former head tax, which Mayor Rahm Emanuel finally finished repealing. CTU did not give a monthly number per employee, and failed to immediately return phone calls seeking details. Emanuel said at the time that tax was driving employers out of town. […]
[The hotel tax hike] would “easily” would give Chicago the highest combined hotel tax in the county—it’s now 17.4 percent if all city, county and other levies are added together, said Marc Gordon, president and CEO of the Illinois Hotel & Lodging Association. “We just had a terrible first quarter, and this will hurt us more,” Gordon said. “A lot of people will be laid off, and tax revenue hurt” as Chicago becomes uncompetitive. […]
Uber and the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce had no immediate comment on the proposal. But Kelley Quinn, Mayor Emanuel’s director of communications, responded with an emailed statement: “Of all organizations, the Chicago Teachers Union should understand how students and taxpayers are being shortchanged by the current funding system in Springfield. In addition to the inequity that exists for students living in poverty, Chicago taxpayers are already paying twice for teacher pensions. Once for Chicago teachers as well as for suburban and downstate teachers. Before asking Chicago taxpayers to pony up more money, we need to fix this inequity in Springfield. #FixSpringfieldFirst.”
* But lots of state money for pensions isn’t likely…
[Sen. Andy Manar] has since amended the [school funding reform] legislation and is likely to push the revised measure for a full vote Thursday. The changes include extending the hold harmless provision to alternative schools and calling for the state to pick up less of Chicago’s teacher pension costs.
Under the previous version of the bill, Manar said the state would have taken on $200 million in pension costs and given the city $275 million in credit to cover a portion of the retirement system’s unfunded liability. Now, the state would only pay for the “normal” pension costs.
It’s that pension pickup that has raised concerns about the measure’s future in the House, where Speaker Michael Madigan has said the state should be focused on cutting pension costs, not taking on more.
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* Sneed…
In early March, Donald Trump — who now seems to be en route to the Republican presidential nomination — didn’t even know Rauner.
“Rauner? Who? Don’t know him,” Trump told Sneed.
“Why? What’s up,” Trump asked.
“The state of Illinois is in a budget nightmare,” I said. “Broke.”
“Well, don’t know him.”
*** UPDATE *** From John Gregory…
Hey Rich
Thought I’d pass this along from my archive. Attached is Trump’s answer about whether he’s met or worked with Rauner, from the Trump City Club appearance last year. He seemed to at least know *OF* the Gov then.
The clip…
Transcript…
“Well, he’s got a hard job. Because you owe a lot of money. The state owes a lot of money. And he’s gonna have to handle that somehow. I do not know him. I hear very good things about him. But I do not.”
So, maybe some commenters are right and Trump is now trying to distance himself from Rauner.
/snark
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