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Move over and slow down!

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* ISP…

On October 18, 2022, Illinois State Police (ISP) officials investigated two separate Scott’s Law Violations that occurred less than an hour apart involving injury to a trooper and two deaths. The first violation involved a traffic crash in District 12 - Effingham where an ISP Trooper received minor injuries. The second violation involved two construction workers who were fatally injured while setting out construction barrels in District 14 – near Burlington, IA.

On October 18, 2022, at approximately 7:25 a.m., Illinois State Police (ISP) officials investigated a vehicle versus pedestrian traffic crash involving an ISP District 12 Trooper, on the ramp from U.S. Route 45 to Interstate 57 southbound in Effingham. The Trooper was on the right shoulder with emergency lights activated, parked behind a truck-tractor semi-trailer (TTST), while investigating a traffic crash. The Trooper was gathering information from the driver of the TTST involved in an earlier hit-and-run. The Trooper was on the driver’s side external floorboard of the TTST’s cab partially in the vehicle, when a passing TTST struck the Trooper and the cab. The Trooper was transported to an area hospital with non-life-threatening injuries and has since been treated and released. The uninjured driver of the passing TTST, 42-year-old Eric D. Trevino of Temple Bell, TX, was issued a citation for a violation of Scott’s Law – Improper Passing of a Stationary Emergency Vehicle.

Also, on October 18, 2022, at approximately 8:03 a.m., two construction workers from a Burlington, IA company were struck and killed after being hit by a passenger car. The workers were walking behind their stationary pickup truck and trailer, which had its yellow construction lights activated, setting construction barrels for a work zone on the Great River Bridge of U.S Route 34 westbound as it crosses the Mississippi River. A 2016 Mazda CX5 traveling westbound struck a barrel and continued on, striking the two construction workers causing fatal injuries.

The workers are identified as Pearson J. Franklin, 20-year-old of New London, IA and Andrew Whitcomb, 35-year-old of Burnside, IL. The driver of the Mazda, Emily Johnson, 21-year-old of Gladstone, IL, was written citations for Scott’s Law – Improper Passing of a Stationary Emergency Vehicle, Improper Use of Electronic Communication Device, and Failure To Reduce Speed To Avoid a Crash. Johnson received minor injuries as a result of the crash.

There have been 19 ISP squad cars struck in relation to the Move Over Law and eight Troopers have sustained injuries from Move Over Law-related crashes. ISP is reminding the public of the requirements of the Move Over Law, otherwise known as the “Scott’s Law.” When approaching an emergency vehicle, or any vehicle with their emergency or hazard lights activated, drivers are required to slow down AND move over. A person who violates Scott’s Law, commits a business offense and faces a fine of no less than $250 or more than $10,000 for a first offense. If the violation results in injury to another person, the violator’s driver’s license will be suspended for a mandatory period of anywhere between six months and two years. Additional information can be found at the following link:
https://isp.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=21430274bef64fc5a19d8dcc191ff3f8

  15 Comments      


Campaign notebook

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* When just 5.5 percent of the voting public is watching, the expectation game is almost completely irrelevant

Bailey generally outperformed low expectations in the first debate of the two on Oct. 6 at Illinois State University in Normal, a chippy affair in which each labeled the other as a liar, the two repeatedly interrupted each other and both accused the other of hypocrisy.

* Latest Personal PAC mailer uses not-so-subtle coat hanger imagery…

* Jason Meisner and Ray Long take a look at the US Attorney’s election timing in the latest Madigan-related charges

In May, Attorney General Merrick Garland sent a memo to Department of Justice employees that was nearly identical to one sent out by his predecessors in previous election cycles, in both Democratic and Republican administrations.

The two-page memo, which was made public over the summer, said “partisan politics must play no role in the decisions of federal investigators or prosecutors regarding any investigations or criminal charges.” […]

The memo directed DOJ employees to reach out to the department’s Public Integrity Section if there were any questions about the appearances of any investigation or announcements “near the time of a primary or general election.”

Legal experts who spoke to the Tribune noted that the memo says nothing specific about how long before an election the policy takes effect, or what exactly would constitute a violation.

“There is no hard and fast rule here at all,” said Renato Mariotti, a legal affairs expert and former federal prosecutor in Chicago. “It’s merely guidance regarding the need to be concerned about any potential appearance of the Justice Department being involved in the political process.”

* Tribune

Amid questions at a town hall meeting from residents about inflation, potential nuclear attacks in Ukraine and gun violence, U.S. Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Highland Park, received a visit from his Republican opponent — Joe Severino of Lake Forest — in the Nov. 8 election.

Severino wanted to debate Schneider on the spot about the issues, but the congressman said he cannot engage in political discourse when he is participating in an event in his official capacity as the representative of the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. […]

“Joe, you’re welcome to stay,” Schneider said. “You’re welcome to have a seat. You’re welcome to stay. If you’re disruptive, I’ll have to ask you to leave.”

Severino eventually left the room.

Severino has been posting tweets lately about a bizarre conspiracy theory, which I can’t make head nor tails of.

* Politico

In suburban congressional races, Dems clobbering Republicans in fundraising — except in IL-17: Republican Esther Joy King of East Moline has nearly $1.4 million cash on hand to Democrat Eric Sorensen’s nearly $295,000, according to the latest Federal Election Commission reports. Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet has all the numbers. […]

— Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch and Democrats for the Illinois House closed the quarter reporting $14.1 million raised and $17 million cash on hand.

— Judge Elizabeth Rochford is being endorsed by the Illinois Education Association in her campaign for the Supreme Court’s Second District.

— Republican Erica Harriss has been endorsed by the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and the Illinois National Federation of Independent Business’ political action committee in her bid for the 56th District state Senate seat.

— Democrat Maria Peterson has been endorsed by the Illinois Senate Latino Caucus, Citizen Action/Illinois and the Latino Victory Fund in her bid for the 26th District state Senate seat.

Harriss is running against appointed Sen. Kris Tharp. Peterson is running against Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie.

* Chicago early vote totals…

The most up-to-date Early Vote and Vote By Mail totals in Chicago, night of Monday, October 17, 2022.

The Early Vote total stands at 2,308 ballots cast.

Additionally, 14,147 Vote By Mail ballots have been returned to the Board – total VBM applications stands at 182,898.

The grand total is 16,455 ballots cast so far in Chicago for the November 8th General Election.

* Roundup from Isabel…

    * Final gubernatorial debate to air on WSIL : Governor JB Pritzker and Sen. Darren Bailey will face off one last time October 18 at 7 p.m. The entire debate will air on WSIL, following News 3 at 6:30. […] Gov. Pritzker and Sen. Bailey faced off on October 6 in their first debate. They both used the hour-long debate to find different ways to to call each other “liar.”

    * Democratic House candidates tout Reproductive Health Act while Republicans call for reinstating Parental Notification Act for abortions: While Republican candidates stated they are anti-abortion and Democratic candidates said they are pro-abortion rights, the majority of candidates said they supported allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest or if the mother’s life is in danger, but did not specify at what term in pregnancy.

    * Media biz chatter over pro-Bailey TV spots spills over onto Twitter: A back-and-forth brewed between former WLS sportscaster Mark Giangreco and former ABC 7 political reporter Charles Thomas when Giangreco tweeted, “sellout shill Charles Thomas’ campaign ads for Darren Bailey “trump” the ridiculous NewsNation promos.” The comment prompted Thomas to fire back at Giangreco, mentioning his brother, Pete Giangreco, who is a political consultant: “Other consultants, like your Dem hack brother (Pete), get paid a LOT more. You could probably use a few extra bucks. How long has it been?”

    * Pritzker, Bailey skirt pension specifics ahead of election e: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Republican challenger Darren Bailey have largely avoided specifics regarding plans to address the state’s growing pension burden ahead of the Nov. 8 election. […] Both Pritzker and Bailey, a state senator from Xenia, provided few details about how they plan to tackle the problem during the first gubernatorial debate this month.

    * Civic Federation supports passage of forest preserve district of Cook Country property tax referendum: The Civic Federation supports passage of the Forest Preserve District of Cook County’s (FPDCC) property tax extension limitation law (PTELL) referendum. The referendum asks the voters of Cook County whether the District’s property tax limiting rate should by increased by 0.025% in property tax levy year 2022, which would generate approximately $40 million in additional property tax revenue for the District annually, or about $20 more annually for the owner of a $300,000 home.

    * Budzinski out raising, out spending Deering in Illinois 13th Congressional District race: Filed with the Federal Election Commission, the reports as of Sept. 30 show Budzinski, a former chief of staff in the Biden administration’s Office of Management and Budget, has raised $3.1 million mostly in individual contributions. In a statement from her campaign office, Budzinski said she was “blown away” with the backing as Democrats look to flip the district held by Republicans for the entire millennium before it was redrawn.

    * Heather Brown: 2022 candidate for Illinois Senate District 25: “As a homeschooling mother of 2 since 2020, I am very unhappy with the educational funding. Our schools have not been updated other than front offices for the faculty and we still do not have air conditioning for elementary schools. Our grades have a 10% ESL and Math grade from 2021-2022 school years. I believe holding funding from schools that do not teach the current bill SB818 is a deep concern,” Brown said.

* Endorsements…

* From the bird app…

  18 Comments      


Illinois Supreme Court news coverage roundup

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* Patch

A federal judge has blocked the enforcement of a pair of campaign finance laws restricting contributions to judicial candidates in Illinois. The ruling opens the door for additional campaign donations ahead of Election Day on Nov. 8.

The ban on campaign donations from residents of other states, enacted in November 2021, as well as the $500,000 limit on how much a single donor can give to an independent expenditure committee supporting or opposing a candidate for judge, enacted in May, were both challenged in August by former Illinois resident Matt Chancey, conservative political committee Restoration PAC and its affiliate Fair Courts America.

Chancey, a former Lake County assistant state’s attorney who moved to Texas after living in Illinois for more than six decades, wanted to donate to the campaigns of Mark Curran, candidate for the Illinois Supreme Court, Reginald Mathews for a Lake County judgeship, Jeff Delong for the Effingham County bench and Mary Christine Heins as a judge in Jackson County, according to his complaint. […]

U.S. District Judge John Tharp ruled in the group’s favor Friday, rejecting the state’s motion to dismiss the case and granting a preliminary injunction to the plaintiff. According to the federal judge, there is no reason to believe that political speech during judicial elections is any less valuable than during other elections.

* The Tribune with more background on the lawsuit

The lawsuit says Restoration PAC — founded by businessman Doug Traux, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination in 2014 — wants to accept a contribution of more than $500,000 and to contribute more than $500,000 to Fair Courts America, both of which are prohibited by the new law. […]

The judge’s ruling applies only to the provisions on out-of-state contributions and donations to independent expenditure committees, not other portions of the laws.

Remaining in place is a $500,000 limit on contributions from individual donors in races where one candidate is self-funding or where there have been independent expenditures of more than $100,000 on behalf of one candidate.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s campaign fund already has made maximum contributions to the two Democratic candidates in races that will determine whether the party maintains its edge on the Supreme Court.

* WBEZ

Terry Cosgrove, president and CEO of Personal PAC, an influential abortion rights fundraising arm, said in 50 years of canvassing, he’s hearing more interest in this election than ever before.

He’s mainly focused on the Illinois Supreme Court races, where Republicans hope to gain control for the first time in more than 50 years. That could threaten abortion rights, Cosgrove said. […]

Money has poured into Personal PAC’s coffers this summer after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that states could ban abortions. The organization has raised more than $1 million since July 1, state campaign finance records show. […]

“I’m not confident at all about the Supreme Court races,” he said. “Not a lot of people know about them. Not a lot of people even know they get a vote.”

* NBC 5

As the race for the Illinois Supreme Court heats up with weeks to go, there are questions raised about contributions incumbent Justice Michael Burke previously received and the subsequent nominations he made.

Campaign contribution records reviewed by NBC 5 Investigates show Burke’s campaign, the “Citizens to Elect Justice Michael J Burke” committee, received $5,996 from the husband of a DuPage Circuit Court judge that Burke had nominated and later appointed for the position.

Burke also received an additional $5,550 from a company the Judge’s husband works for.

The contributions were made months prior to Judge Kavita Athanikar’s appointment to the DuPage Circuit Court bench.

* Fox

Doctors rallied Monday in support of abortion rights. […]

Mark Curran and Michael Burke have support from Illinois Right to Life and other groups opposed to abortion rights and contraception.

These groups want no exceptions for abortions for women — even if they are victims of rape or incest.

“I feel incredibly fortunate to currently live and work in Illinois, a state that is supportive of access to full spectrum reproductive health care, including abortion and contraception,” one doctor said. “This care is rightfully viewed as essential health care in our state. I’m here to speak to you today because I’m incredibly concerned about my ability to continue to provide this care in Illinois, given what’s at stake in this upcoming election in November.”

  4 Comments      


PPP also polled the abortion issue

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* WBEZ

As states around the country adopt stricter restrictions on abortion with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, more than half of Illinois voters say abortion should remain legal here, according to a new WBEZ/Chicago Sun-Times Poll.

About 52% of likely voters polled said abortion should be legal in most or all cases, with 36% saying it should be illegal, and 12% unsure.

As with other stories on this PPP poll, the piece was light on actual numbers. For instance, this really doesn’t say much at all….

Respondents who live in the collar counties or downstate were more likely than Chicagoans to say abortion should be mostly or completely illegal. Opponents of legalized abortion in the poll also have less education than those who support abortion.

OK, fine, but what are the numbers?

* The only graph

  9 Comments      


Just in case he tries to use the ol’ “taken out of context” line…

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I got a little pushback from the Bailey campaign yesterday for highlighting his belief that the state should cut education funding. So, let’s go back to the interview because I get the distinct impression that he’s going to try to spin away from his Crain’s editorial board comments during tonight’s debate

Q: Are there any no-go zones, things that you absolutely would not want to see in reductions in [state] spending?

Bailey: Everybody’s on the table. Let’s talk about education. Here in Chicago $29,000 per student, the highest in the nation [Editor’s note: It’s more like $15K]. $29,000 being spent per student. I think the rest of the state is close to 20 on average [Editor’s note: It’s more like $16K] we expend when our schools are failing. Our colleges are some of the most expensive in the nation, and our children are being forced out of state going to other colleges because of tuition. That shouldn’t be happening. It’s transparency. It’s accountability. It’s taking a look at things that they were putting too much money in and making the situation transparent.

I’m not sure how cutting spending is going to lower property taxes or tuition or increase learning. And since he also wants fewer mandates, I doubt he’d demand that school boards rein in administrative salaries.

* Back to the interview

Q: I think we all know that property taxes are so high here because local school districts pick up a large share of the property tax, the cost of educating your kids. The big question I have for you is what is the state’s role in education? What should it be? Because it sounds like you’re talking about unfunded mandates. So what is the state’s function? Should the state be paying more money for education or less money?

Bailey: The state should be paying less money. The state should be pulling back, letting the local school boards determine how they want to educate their children, offering school choice. So one thing Governor Pritzker you know, when you talk about these facts. There’s other states, they may be spending 48%. They’re not spending 20, 29,000 on their students. When we see problems here, when Governor Pritzker has a problem they just throw more money at the issue without any accountability whatsoever. I mean, the overwhelming majority of schoolchildren in Chicago Public Schools, do you realize this, they cannot read or do math at grade level. The majority of high school students over all of Illinois cannot read or do math at grade level. That’s a problem. [From the administration: “Illinois has some of the most rigorous learning standards in the nation: ranking fourth most rigorous for 4th grade reading and fifth most rigorous for 8th grade reading. In Illinois, a student needs to earn a level of 4 or 5 to be considered proficient. In comparison, the rigor of Florida’s standards ranks 39th and 42nd, respectively, and a student only needs to earn a level 3 on the state assessment to be considered proficient”] Why aren’t we tackling those issues? But now we think it’s good to let’s let’s add new curriculum, SB818, sex education curriculum, let’s add new curriculum so we have to hire new teachers, train people, and that binding curriculum [It’s not binding], that’s Gov. Pritzker’s, that’s his dream for Illinois. And that’s destroying us. We have got to pull back. We need to be getting vocational and trade classes back in our school. We need to be teaching our children how to live and how a function, how to run a business. That’s the future of Illinois. And we’re not doing that, we’re not doing anything except throwing more money at the schools, demanding more out of the schools and so we have a high weighted administration.

Vocational education costs money, too. Cut the funds and… magic?

* Interview

Q: The argument that the state pulls back or doesn’t play a larger role, we’re going to have these broad disparities in spending between school districts. And so a child’s opportunity is going to depend basically, on where they are. And so how do you respond to that argument? Is that a valid argument? Because if you have one school district spending $10,000 per student and another one in New Trier expending, whatever, 30, you’re gonna have different outcomes over the long run.

Bailey: People have choices. And if that’s taking place and their property taxes are high, then they get to determine ‘Am I gonna stay here and live here and pay these property taxes? Or am I gonna move somewhere else where my property taxes aren’t as high?’

They’re all gonna have higher property taxes with lower state funding, even if state mandates are cut.

* Some of the following passages were a little garbled

Bailey: What is good for New Trier is not good for Clay County, Illinois. Most, many of our children are, some of our children are going to go to the military. They’re going to go right into the workforce. There’s welders, pipe fitters, linemen. So that’s what public education needs to be.

Q: You’re implying that because they’re going to become a [trades person] they don’t need the same kind of level of education that somebody up here [may require].

Bailey: Well, that’s Southern Illinois. That’s the line of work that if you want to stay in Southern Illinois, that’s the line of work that’s most prevalent. Used to be coal mining, it used to be working in the oil fields. It used to be working on the farm. But because of the regulations, oil’s being regulated, even though we’re going to haul coal from Wyoming to power plants over the eastern seaboard. And we’re just kind of blinded to all these things that should be so awesome for Illinois.

Q: So that kid doesn’t need the same kind of education?

Bailey: You’re implying with that with money. Money is not the solution to a good education. Period.

Also, it should probably not go unnoticed that just a few years after the state came up with a bipartisan plan to equitably fund schools, people like Bailey and the far-right groups are now demanding reduced K-12 spending.

* This all brings to mind a Madeline Doubek column from the 1990s

Suburban legislators understand downstate communities don’t have the property wealth the suburbs have, but some, like Republican state Sen. Marty Butler of Park Ridge, question whether downstate residents are putting a proportional share of money into their schools.

“People wanted good schools and bought into the idea that it’s costly,” Butler says of the suburbs. “Downstate, they either were willing or content to let the schools kind of coast along.” […]

Much has been made about the fact that a North Shore district spends $15,744 annually per student, while downstate St. Rose Elementary District spends only $2,932.

But the numbers that may have more meaning in the suburbs are ones that show some suburban school districts get little more than $230 in state funds per student, while others outside the suburbs get as much as $2,000.

And now that some of the poorer districts are finally getting significantly more money, Bailey wants to constrict the pipeline.

By the way, St. Rose Elementary District just happens to be in Bailey’s new state Senate district. Oh, the irony.

  41 Comments      


Pritzker’s new ad features Highland Park Mayor: “Darren Bailey has no business being our governor”

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The spot

* Script

Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering: On July 4th, my community saw the face of evil. The magnitude of the devastation will last for years.

But with the work of public safety personnel, the support of Governor Pritzker, and so many others, the people of Highland Park are finding strength in the aftermath of trauma.

But even as the shooter was still at large, Darren Bailey said it was time to “move on.” And he raised funds for his campaign raffling off assault weapons like the one used here.

Darren Bailey has no business being our governor.

  46 Comments      


Bailey skips all questions, while Pritzker dodges three

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hmm

The Chicago Sun-Times and WBEZ asked 19 questions of the three gubernatorial candidates on the Nov. 8 ballot in an effort to easily show voters the differences between the candidates.

Only incumbent Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker completed the questionnaire.

Republican state Sen. Darren Bailey and Libertarian Scott Schluter did not answer the questions.

Pritzker answered most, but not all of the questions. Here are the three questions he skipped

Would you favor permanently abolishing the state sales tax on gas?

Would you favor permanently abolishing the state sales tax on food and beverages?

Would you favor mandating the COVID-19 vaccine for Illinois students in the near future?

Hmm. Maybe somebody can ask that at tonight’s debate.

…Adding… He didn’t provide “Yes” or “No” answers to those questions, but he did provide some written responses

I am open to having conversations with the General Assembly about eliminating the state sales tax on gas, but we must ensure that critical projects and priorities are not threatened due to its elimination.

Sales tax revenue on groceries is collected by the state but is distributed to local governments. None of the revenue goes to the state. My tax relief plan in effect today eliminates the grocery tax by replacing the local revenue with state revenue. Working with local government, the state should consider the possibility of eliminating it altogether.

I’ve worked hard to protect the lives and health of all Illinoisans, including students. In fact, I kept our schools open while protecting the school communities during the worst moments of the pandemic. If re-elected, I will continue to assess the best options for keeping our students safe from the spread of COVID-19.

* Pritzker answered “Yes” to this question

Do you support Illinois’ tax credit scholarship program that provides financial support for students to attend private and parochial schools?

As you may remember, he promised to end that tax credit program during the 2018 campaign. Here’s Pritzker’s explanation

My main focus with respect to K-12 education is ensuring that there is sufficient funding for all children to receive a quality education, regardless of their zip code. That’s why I’ve dedicated an additional $1.3 billion toward public education during my term. With assurance from the advocates for Invest in Kids that they will support increased public school funding, my budgets have ultimately included the relatively small Invest in Kids Scholarship Program.

* He answered “No” to this question: “Would you favor changing the state constitution to allow for the diminishment of public employee pensions?”

Many Illinoisans spend their entire careers contributing money to a pension fund with a promise that they’ll get that money back. I firmly believe that’s a promise that can’t be broken.

* This was his explanation for why he opposed bringing back the state’s parental notification of abortion law

The repeal of parental notification was essential to protect society’s most vulnerable children: minors who are victims of rape and incest, victims who are poor, and victims of physical abuse at home. Those are the women and girls who were punished by this law which could lead to pregnant teens being kicked out, cut off or forced to have a child against their will. It put undue burdens on young people who didn’t have the necessary resources, whose parent may be in prison, or who are homeless.

Discuss.

  22 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Bailey claims own poll shows him two points down, but Pritzker camp calls the survey “junk”

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Background is here if you need it. From ABC 7’s story on the Illinois Broadcasters Association poll which has JB Pritzker leading Darren Bailey by 22 points

“It’s really bad news for Darren Bailey. At this point in the campaign, he should be shrinking the lead, not seeing it grow. Pritzker’s putting some distance between himself and Bailey, significant distance and it would be very difficult, if this poll is accurate for Bailey to make up that ground in the next few weeks,” said ABC7 Political Analyst Laura Washington.

The Bailey campaign scoffed at those latest numbers and said their own internal polling shows the race is much closer.

“This is not a legitimate poll. It’s an internet survey and anyone who cares about honest journalism would do a better job of disseminating information to the people. Our polling shows this race is close because JB Pritzker has failed Illinoisans. Darren Bailey is focused on making Illinois safer and more affordable for everyone and we’re confident voters will choose a better direction for Illinois on Election Day,” said Bailey’s campaign spokesperson, Joe DeBose.

* Fox 32

A spokesman for state Sen. Bailey called the results, “laughable.” The survey was conducted from Oct. 5 to Oct. 11.

7 days ain’t great. I’ll give them that. And the IBA has been less than transparent about the poll’s methodology.

* NBC 5

Mark Harris, a strategist for Bailey, dismissed the findings of the poll, saying that internal polls show the state senator just two points behind Pritzker.

“It coincides with the national environment getting better for Republicans,” he told NBC 5 Political Reporter Mary Ann Ahern. “We’re very confident that this is a close race and our data is showing it getting closer, and I don’t think JB Pritzker would be spending $100 million-plus if he thought this were a 20-point race.”

The Pritzker campaign fired back after the poll’s release, calling the razor-thin margin in Bailey’s internal polling “junk.”

“Darren Bailey’s desperation is showing,” a campaign spokesperson told NBC 5. “Just like the junk internal poll he tried to pass off last month, these numbers are wildly-off-base and inconsistent with all other public polling. Voters know Darren Bailey is too extreme for Illinois, and those who haven’t already voted early for Governor Pritzker will undoubtedly reject Bailey in November.”

The Bailey poll is here. No regional breakdowns and no question asking respondents about past election behavior, which I think is a decent way to check for accuracy. The IBA poll asked about geography, but not past votes.

…Adding… A commenter points out that Bailey’s poll uses a universe of 71 percent white people. Illinois is 62 percent white.

Also, Pritzker never lets off the gas. He didn’t ease up during the 2018 primary, even though he was safely ahead. He never slowed down during the 2018 general against a weak and unpopular Republican incumbent in a big Democratic year. And even after Richard Irvin dropped to third place during the 2022 GOP primary, Pritzker kept right on spending cash.

* Anyway, the Downstate numbers in two of the news media polls are odd. The WGN poll had Bailey ahead by just two points, 45-43 in Downstate. The WBEZ/Sun-Times poll had Downstate at a 40-40 tie. I’d be very curious to see what the IBA’s crosstabs show for that region. But, again, they’re being less than transparent.

*** UPDATE *** Dan Proft press release…

Don’t dismiss this bogus poll. Remember it.

This is how the corrupt and incompetent state-run Chicago press corps works. Use some leftist org like IL Broadcasters Assn to cook up a poll they can then report as ‘news’ to drive the outcome they desire on behalf of their fellow travelers in office. This is unadulterated fake news. RVs not likely voters. +17 on the generic ballot for Dems. There is no scenario in which that is remotely close and everyone who knows anything about polling and turnout modeling in IL knows what I’m saying is correct.

The generic ballot is + Dem in the single digits and trending toward the low single digits–at its height this cycle is was +9 Dems. Correspondingly, Bailey and the other statewides have been following that trend to where they are in striking distance depending on who turns out.

Bailey is the underdog. Of course he is. Every GOP statewide candidate in Illinois is. This trash poll dutifully reported by fake news outlets like WGN–yes, fake news outlets–is an effort to squelch out hope. Talk about voter suppression. They want to quell even the remotest signs of a popular revolt whether it’s over the Purge Law, confiscatory taxes, or the race and gender hustle in schools. Abandon any notion you have any control over your life and any ability to change it. Cede your sovereignty to the Dem Socialists as we have. Don’t think. Follow. That’s their message. They thrive on your fatalism. In fact, the only way people like Pritzker stay in office is if sensible people throw in the towel.

Remember this poll and the useful idiots these Pritzker apparatchiks in the fake news business consider you to be. This is so much bigger than even the governor’s race. Make a decision as to whether or not you want the leadership of virtually every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois to continue lying to you with impunity. On November 8, tell the purveyors of acceptable lies you find them decidedly unacceptable. Use this egregious attempt to gaslight you to stoke the revolt that fells the current political power structure and sends an unmistakable message to the next one: We are in charge. We have some simple demands. We want a better life in Illinois. You’d better meet those demands or you’re next.

Ah, yes, fomenting anger to threaten the news media and “every civic, cultural, and educational institution in Illinois.” Lovely.

  59 Comments      


Morning campaign stuff

Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

* A quick roundup to start your day…

    * Final gubernatorial debate: What do Pritzker, Bailey need to say to gain support?: For Bailey to complete a path to victory, Redfield said the downstate farmer will need to attract more middle-of-the-road and undecided voters. […] For Pritzker to avoid joining Walker, Redfield recommends the governor stay the course — selling his accomplishments in a tenure amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Redfield said the governor’s touting of his record, including such policies as the Rebuild Illinois infrastructure plan, seem to resonate with the voters within his base and perhaps moderates as well.

    * Illinois treasurer’s race: What candidates have to say about taxes, college savings and merging the office: One of [Demmer‘s] main lines of attack on Frerichs is over remarks the treasurer made in 2020, when he said voter approval of a graduated income tax on the ballot that November could open the door to conversations about whether the wealthiest retirees should have some of their retirement income taxed. The comment was seized upon by Republicans, even as Frerichs went on to repeatedly insist he opposed any state tax on retirement income.

    * State senate race becomes fierce battleground: A central Illinois state senate race has become a fierce battleground as republicans hope to flip the 48th District. The race between Democratic candidate Doris Turner and Republican candidate Sandy Hamilton is now one of the ugliest races this election cycle. “It’s a high stakes, you’ve got a lot of money that people can spend. In addition to doing the positive ads- this is who I am this, this is what I’m trying to do- you’re trying to define your opponent,” Kent Redfield, a Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Illinois Springfield, told WAND News.

    * Illinois Democrats deploy campaign cash to defend downstate turf against Republican challengers: Republican candidates angling to oust downstate Democrats face a number of strategic disadvantages down the stretch, but still hope national political winds from a Biden backlash can sweep them to power in the statehouse. “The way our economy is right now, people are ready for a change,” Republican Jennifer Korte said at a Republican campaign event in Edwardsville.

    * Illinois voters to weigh in on Workers’ Rights Amendment to codify collective bargaining rights: It’s a key issue for unions, which are pouring millions of dollars into the campaign to win support for the amendment, including TV ads. But business groups - including the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and others - are fighting against it, saying it would be bad for business and encouraging companies to locate elsewhere.

    * Chicago-area congressional Democratic candidates lead in fundraising, new FEC reports show: With giant campaign cash advantages — and new districts with voters who don’t know them — Casten, Krishnamoorthi, Schneider, Foster and Underwood have been running television ads in the expensive Chicago broadcast market.

More later.

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Tuesday, Oct 18, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller

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