* 2:14 pm - The House Republicans are claiming on the House floor that the House Democratic budget for next fiscal year has a $2 billion deficit - and they’re not even finished voting on the agency budgets. Listen or watch here.
* 2:19 pm - For some background, this is what happened earlier today…
The House voted 63-51 Wednesday for the main operations budget that would keep state government running, then planned to vote for a more expanded version.
But whether this proposal or something like it will become the state’s next budget remains far from clear.
That’s because Senate Democrats are preparing their own budget plan that could be more modest than what the House supports.
* 4:00 pm - The House Democratic budget deficit is up to $3.1 billion and rising as of now according to the House Republicans
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Question of the day
Wednesday, May 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This help wanted ad at CareerBuilder for a new press secretary for Gov. Rod Blagojevich has been making the rounds…
Position Responsibilities:
* Build and maintain relationships with members of the press
* Act as a spokesperson, proactively pitching stories and developing/delivering reaction to reporters’ inquiries
* Collaborate with Governor’s press staff and agency press officers to generate ideas and develop media strategies
* OneMan adds these…
* The ability to keep tabs on Rich Miller
* Know how to look up synonyms for unrelated and coincidence.
* Finally the ability to say “He isn’t public official A” with a straight face
* Chicagoist chimes in…
* Must maintain working knowledge of all Elvis and Hank Williams songs
* Must be skilled with hair spray
* Must be able to “forget” things or “misplace” information
* Must be able to never, ever, mention the name “Rezko”
Your turn.
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Another pension bond deal? Maybe
Wednesday, May 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune has the scoop…
Illinois Senate Democrats are looking hard at borrowing $16 billion, pumping the cash into the state employee pension systems and hoping the investments can beat the market—all as a way to ease budget pressures.
It’s an idea that so far has worked after Gov. Rod Blagojevich took a chance on a $10 billion bond package in 2003. He caught the markets at a terrifically low rate of just over 5 percent and the pension systems took their portion of the proceeds and mostly invested wisely.
Several senators emerged from the Senate Democratic caucus Tuesday saying the latest pension bond idea will emerge in the budget plan they hope to roll out soon. […]
But Sen. Susan Garrett (D-Lake Forest) said she is skeptical about voting for a $16 billion pension bond and the newly proposed $31 billion construction plan when a state operating budget remains unsettled.
* That won’t be easy to pass. The AP did a story on this idea earlier in the week…
Critics, including business groups and Republicans, say borrowing to pay off old debt, even if it’s at a lower interest rate, isn’t wise. It just puts off the problem.
They say there’s also too much risk in a pension bond. It only works if the invested proceeds from the bond get a better return than the interest rate on the amount borrowed, which could be 5 percent a year. In a shaky stock market, critics warn, nothing is guaranteed and the state’s pension debt could get even worse.
“This is a craps game, and you shouldn’t operate the state’s finances based on taking those kinds of risks,” said Eden Martin of the civic committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago.
* The Civic Federation had some harsh words about the idea in a recent report…
“Until Illinois political leaders dedicate themselves to putting the state’s fiscal house in order, Illinois taxpayers and the Civic Federation will not have confidence that any new revenue will be spent effectively,”
* If the plan is met with stiff opposition, it might be dumped like a hot potato…
“I don’t think there’s a will from any member to be down here this summer,” said Sen. Donne Trotter of Chicago, the budget point man for the Senate’s Democratic majority.
* More evidence of that apparent willingness to abandon ship and get out of town…
The House is expected to first push a “bare-bones budget” and follow up with spending expansions as agreement can be found.
Senators, however, say they don’t plan on entertaining more spending until there’s a deal on producing the needed dollars.
“You can’t order up the dinner and know that your Link card, the ATM card’s gonna bounce, MasterCard, whatever they (House members) think they have over there. We’re broke,” said state Sen. Rickey Hendon, a Chicago Democrat.
* But there’s also this…
.Blagojevich spokeswoman Rebecca Rausch said the governor is more focused on seeing a good budget that meets the right priorities than having something done by a specific date.
Except almost nobody really believes that they can pass a “good budget” this year, so why bother sticking around?
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No trust, no deal
Wednesday, May 21, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* “Trust” is the word of the day….
Conceding that many state lawmakers just don’t trust Gov. Rod Blagojevich, two former congressmen Tuesday unveiled a $31 billion public-works package to be paid for by leasing part of the lottery, giving Chicago a casino and allowing slot machines at horse-racing tracks.
Former U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert, a suburban Republican, and former U.S. Rep. Glenn Poshard, a Downstate Democrat, delivered the Blagojevich-backed plan to lawmakers, who immediately greeted its chances with skepticism as they try to finish a state budget in the next 10 days.
* And…
But the two veteran political leaders — who have been Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s roving emissaries on the issue lately — acknowledged that legislative distrust of Blagojevich has hampered their effort. Their recommendations include “accountability provisions” to reassure legislators that the Democratic governor won’t break any agreements on how the money is supposed to be spent. […]
“Part of the problem is a trust factor, frankly, between the Legislature and the governor,” said Hastert, a Republican who is a former speaker of the U.S. House
* And…
Senate Minority Leader Frank Watson, R-Greenville, said the revenue ideas floated Tuesday are “iffy at best.” He said Republicans also are still leery of so-called accountability measures contained in the plan. Those measures were included to allay fears that Blagojevich might use the money for something other than construction projects or would only approve projects for his political allies.
* Watson added…
“We need a lockbox that Houdini can’t get out of.”
* As Watson pointed out, the trust factor isn’t the only problem here. There’s also the funding mechanisms…
To pay for the $31 billion package, proponents are counting on two ideas that have stalled in the legislature.
They hope to raise $10 billion by leasing a large portion of the lottery, with $7 billion going for construction and the rest for increased education spending.
The other hurdle is winning support for a huge gambling expansion that includes a land-based Chicago casino, a new riverboat casino, adding thousands of positions at existing boats and putting slot machines at racetracks. The plan also counts on taking advantage of the state’s surge in gas-tax revenues tied to higher prices at the pump.
* That last proposal came at somewhat of an inopportune time for the House Republicans, who held a press conference yesterday morning demanding that motorists be given a gasoline sales tax holiday this summer…
House Republicans are calling for a suspension of the Illinois sales tax on gasoline this summer.
Lawmakers claim the average family would save up to $60 over a four-month tax holiday. Truckers might save $1,000.
* Patterson put it well…
So, now those House Republicans face this choice: help local motorists, or get credit for big new construction projects with grand ribbon-cutting ceremonies.
But Patterson later bumped into a House GOP spokesperson who said: “We’re for capital.”
* That quote sums up the dire need for a capital plan…
Most Illinois political leaders in both parties agree a major program is necessary to rebuild deteriorating highways, bridges, schools and public transit. The failure to launch such a plan has endangered $9.3 billion in federal matching funds.
“We’re the fifth-largest state in the nation (and) we’ve been nine years without an investment in our infrastructure,” said Poshard, a former Democratic gubernatorial candidate and now president of Southern Illinois University at Carbondale. “We can’t compete (economically) if we don’t decide to invest.”
But without trust, it’s gonna be really tough to get this done.
* Meanwhile, even though Blagojevich has said that the capital plan and the budget are tied together, two top Senate Democrats had news for the guv…
Sen. Donne Trotter, D-Chicago, said lawmakers have to approve a budget before adjourning.
“We do not need to pass a capital bill to be out of here by June 1,” he said.
“A capital bill is separate. They are not tied together in any way,” agreed Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, D-Crete.
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In Rod they don’t trust
Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The most important sentence in this story is the last line below…
The Illinois House could begin voting as early as Wednesday on the outlines of a bare-bones state budget. […]
Hannig offered few details about the proposal Monday, but said lawmakers will be given the opportunity to vote on a no-growth budget plan that essentially keeps state government operating when the new fiscal year kicks in July 1.
In a new twist, Hannig said lawmakers also will be then given the option of boosting spending on various programs. For example, lawmakers could vote to add up to $600 million in new funding for schools. […]
Action in the House, however, may be nothing more than a political maneuver.
The aspect of the House budget plan that allows members to tack on almost whatever they want to the spending proposal is pure politics. The rest, not so much. There are some useful things being done this week outside of the grandstanding.
* A long summer session is not favored by the Senate Dems this year…
I don’t think there’s a will from any member to be down here this summer,” said Sen. Donne Trotter of Chicago, the budget point man for the Senate’s Democratic majority.
That’s good news, but they’ll still have to deal with the governor…
Blagojevich sees a state budget and a major construction program as connected, because the construction bill would “relieve pressure on an operations budget. That remains our focus,” said spokeswoman Rebecca Rausch.
That’s pretty ominous if the guv sticks to his guns.
* I couldn’t have said this better myself…
Talks about a state capital building plan are still occurring in Springfield, although it’s hard to see much progress. […]
Rich Miller, who writes the political insider newsletter The Capital Fax, hit on the real issue recently.
It’s trust.
Few legislators trust Blagojevich to spend the money fairly and equitably. It’s hard to blame the legislators.
* Back to the Tribune’s story…
Blagojevich is not charged with a crime and has denied wrongdoing. But the confluence of the scandal and the growing disenchantment with him takes a toll on budget negotiations. […]
[Senate President Emil Jones] downplays a lack of trust.
“We’re talking about money,” he said. “In God we trust. It’s on our money.”
I’m not quite sure what that means, but whatever.
* Meanwhile…
The horse racing industry leaders are back at the state Capitol to plead for state assistance. This time they’re trying to convince lawmakers that if the state helps them, they can turn more profits and help fund a $20 billion infrastructure program for the entire state.
The argument is that horse racing in Illinois is losing horses, trainers, agribusiness, and lots of money tied to the industry to other states. Many of those states subsidize the industry and offer larger prizes for winning a race. Blagojevich signed a measure into law nearly two years ago that would have shaved 3 percent of the profits from the state’s casinos to support the ailing horse racing industry, but the measure immediately landed in court.
* Related…
* Proponents say slot machines at tracks would help racing industry, state
* Hastert, Poshard campaign for state roads
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Our courageous governor
Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Blagojevich was on the West Side yesterday touting an apparent reduction in prison recidivism rates, but reporters wanted to ask him other questions…
When asked about the Rezko trial, Blagojevich has typically responded that he is not involved in the case and therefore it is not appropriate for him to talk about it.
But asked Monday afternoon if he was concerned that he might be the next target of investigators, Blagojevich answered, “As I’ve said before, I’m not going to answer stupid questions like that.”
The audience applauded the answer, but reporters pressed on…
The question about the federal investigation followed others about his woeful poll numbers and being booed at the Chicago Board of Trade as he rang the morning bell to open trading on Monday.
The audience hissed at reporters as they asked about these negative issues.
What a guy.
* Somewhat related…
* Corrections says convictions among parolees down
* Prison drug programs paying off, state says - Percentage of parolees arrested again way down
* Number Of Repeat Offenders Down
* Blagojevich: No more ’stupid questions’
* Politicians should take credit for all of their great ideas
* Worker says he was fired to protect governor
* IDOT’s proposal to move jobs goes on the clock
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Campaign roundup *** UPDATED x1 ***
Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republican congressional candidate Steve Greenberg has a new campaign manager…
Collin Corbett, who previously had served as a Greenberg field coordinator, now is running the candidate’s bid to topple two-term incumbent Rep. Melissa Bean in the 8th House District.
No offense to Corbett, but check this out…
A 22-year-old Wauconda resident, Corbett volunteered with other local GOP congressional campaigns before joining Greenberg’s team in October.
If that isn’t a good indication of how badly Greenberg’s campaign is going, and how little interest there is in DC, here’s more…
Greenberg’s campaign has been relatively low on cash. According to the most recent campaign disclosure reports available, the campaign had about $5,000 in the bank as of March 31, far less than Bean’s roughly $1.4 million total as of the same date.
Relatively low on cash? Relative to what?
* Meanwhile, in another campaign…
The Second City has become first in the nation for high gas prices, with consumers struggling as oil company profits soar, U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Monday.
“We’ve got to stop the price-gouging,'’ Durbin said.
And Durbin’s solution?
[Durbin] took credit for a new Federal Trade Commission probe into record fuel prices as he spoke before a BP station at Roosevelt and Wabash with regular gas selling for $4.25.
Ooooo. An FTC probe. Be still my heart.
* The Daily Herald lists a few reasons why gas prices are so high…
Analysts agree that global demand, particularly in China and India, is driving prices nationally, as are refinery capacity limits and speculation on the crude oil futures market.
The speculation is really driving the price in a big way. We can’t do much about China and India, but something could be done about speculators and capacity limits. Also, the just in time delivery system could be altered by requiring producers to have more fuel on hand. There are other good ideas out there as well, but all we’re gonna get from Durbin is an FTC probe. Hilarious.
* Of course, there is also the tax issue…
Illinois is one of only nine states to apply its basic sales tax to gasoline purchases. Most — including neighboring Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Kentucky — do not.
Beyond that, Illinois, alone among Midwestern states, allows local units of government to add taxes to gasoline sales. Cook County, for instance, tacks on 6 cents per gallon, Chicago 5 cents. It all adds up.
No mention of that by our US Senator.
* Speaking of gas prices, the governor showed he was a bit out of touch…
BLAGOJEVICH: Price of gas is going to be about four-dollars a gallon…(crowd murmurs, ‘It is’)… See when you’re the governor you don’t fill your gas up.
*** UPDATE *** GOP Congressional candidate Martin Ozinga just announced his staff lineup…
Glen Bolger (Pollster), Partner, Public Opinion Strategies: Glen Bolger is one of the Republican Party’s leading political strategists and pollsters. Public Opinion Strategies has 20 U.S. Senators, eight governors, and more than 50 Members of Congress as clients. Roll Call newspaper, a newspaper that covers Capitol Hill, noted Glen “has quickly emerged as the pollster of choice for House and Senate Republicans.”
Jonathan Poe (Media Consultant), Partner, Anthem Media: National political analyst Charlie Cook has called Jonathan Poe “one of the most talented operatives ever to work at a House or Senate committee.” Poe spent the past three election cycles in leadership roles at the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), serving as Deputy Political Director during the 2006 cycle, National Field Director during the 2004 cycle and Field Representative during the 2002 cycle.
Aaron Leibowitz (Direct Mail Consultant), Partner, Targeted Creative Communications: Aaron’s professional experience in politics includes serving as Executive Director of the Republican Party of Virginia, an Account Executive for Karl Rove + Company, Senior Associate at Carlyle Gregory and Associates, and managing or working on congressional campaigns in the Midwest and South. Aaron was selected as a “Rising Star” by Campaigns & Elections Magazine in 2004 for his important role in so many targeted, critical races.
Joe Rachinsky (PAC Fundraiser), Partner, The Catalyst Group: Joe Rachinsky operated Rachinsky Consulting for two years, consulting on several top congressional races, and with the NRCC on their convention activities. Earlier he served as the Finance Director of the NRCC under Chairmen Tom Reynolds and Tom Davis. Rachinsky has also served as the PAC director of a major pro-business PAC, director of the NRCC’s PAC donor programs, and has worked in the field on several congressional campaigns.
Laura Anderson (Illinois Fundraiser), CEO, Winning Systems, Inc.: Laura spent the first 16 years of her career working with the Illinois Legislature in various policy and management positions. She later became Chief of Staff for Lee Daniels, former Speaker and Leader in the Illinois House of Representatives. In these years she was involved in the state budgeting process and legislative affairs, including issues relating to human services. Laura most recently served as the Illinois finance consultant to Rudy Giuliani’s presidential campaign.
Andy Seré (Campaign Manager): Ozinga’s bid marks the fifth campaign Seré has managed, including three targeted state legislative races in Texas and Virginia. Seré also managed the GOP primary campaign of Tim Baldermann, which culminated in a convincing 62% victory among a 3-way field. He is a graduate of the Republican National Committee’s Campaign Management College.
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Morning Shorts
Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning
* Kadner: Illinois can vote for con-con in November…
If you want to shake up the power brokers in Springfield, this may be the best way to do it.
* Con Con Considerations: Compensation
* Still deliberating on Rezko
* Report criticizes GOP power broker over hotel deal
* Former Hotel Owners May Have Abused State Loans
* Illinois treasurer denounces ‘cozy’ hotel
* Chicago City Council Committees Evade The Law, Experts Say
* Children’s Museum vote unlikely Tuesday
* Michigan Ave. ‘wall’ on danger list
* Daley Contends Crime Numbers
* City wants its cut from Stubhub, eBay tickets
In January, 2006, Rolling Stones fans coughed up as much as $1,500-a-ticket to watch Mick Jagger strut his stuff at the United Center.
They should have paid the city’s 8 percent amusement tax — $120 for a $1,500 — just like everyone else who buys from a broker. But if they bought their tickets on the Internet, Chicago taxpayers got zilch.
* Cronyism is the star of Stroger’s hiring show
* Hoffman Estates chief critical of officer’s Stroger snub
* Cook County state’s attorney foes go back and forth on corruption
* Oh, shoot!
So, what does an alderman do when he finds himself in violation of the law? He writes a new law. Mell has quietly introduced an ordinance that would reopen gun registration in Chicago and create a one-month amnesty for himself and other gun owners in the same predicament.
* Hearing on public defender’s job postponed
* Stroger drops effort to fire public defender
* Politics and public defenders
* Deal keeps Cook Co. public defender on the job
Burnette will keep his job after the two reached some sort of agreement Monday that will avoid a public hearing today before the Cook County Board on Burnette’s dismissal, said Cook County Commissioner Larry Suffredin, who said he had spoken to Burnette Monday.
* Larry Walsh pleads guilty to DUI
* State issuing trail grants
* Special election has Kane Co. elections dept. in $680,000 hole
* Law would help track abusive teachers
* House OKs creation of Lincoln anniversary license plates
* White: Recommendations to cut distracted driving should save lives
* Obama opposes rail deal
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Question of the day
Monday, May 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The setup…
Alan Keyes, who was recently beaten 3-to-1 for the Constitution Party nomination for President, has decided to continue his run for President as an “Independent”. In order to facilitate with ballot-access, Keyes is trying to start a new party called “America’s Independent Party”. He has groupings of supporters in Texas, California, Florida, New York and Missouri. […]
Next Keyes will be attempting to complete petitions in Arizona, New Mexico, North Carolina, Colorado, Conneticut, and Illinois—and it is unlikely he’ll get on the ballot in any of these states except for Colorado.
* The Question: Come up with a new name for Alan Keyes’ party. Snark heavily encouraged.
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* I see a huge problem with this US Senate development…
The Senate Thursday night voted to nullify a Federal Communications Commission rule that allows media companies to own a newspaper and a television station in the same market.
The unusual “resolution of disapproval,” sponsored by Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., and 26 other senators, was approved by a voice vote. The measures sponsors include both Democratic candidates for president, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.
Republican FCC Chairman Kevin Martin has described the agency’s action as a “relatively minor loosening” of broadcast media ownership restrictions. The rule was approved by the FCC on a 3-2 party-line vote in December with both Democrats dissenting.
The FCC decision allows one company to own a newspaper and a broadcast station in the nation’s 20 largest metropolitan areas. The TV station may not be among the top four in the market, and post-transaction, at least eight independent media voices must remain. The rule replaced an outright ban on cross-ownership.
* In Chicago, the Tribune is grandfathered into the law so its parent company can own WGN TV/Radio and CLTV. That means the Trib can better weather a downturn in newspaper ad revenues. The Sun-Times, which was once owned by Marshall Field and long ago sold off Channel 32, is not insulated. If you take even a quick look at the Sun-Times Media Group’s financial statements, you’ll see what dire straits that company is in right now. A buyout by a TV station or cable company could save it.
I’m far less worried about cross-ownership than I used to be. The Tribune has shown that it can be a healthy thing for the market.
So, my opinion is either get rid of the unfair grandfather clause, or expand it to everyone else.
What do you think?
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Cell phones and concert tix
Monday, May 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This seems like a no-brainer…
Secretary of State Jesse White said Thursday he plans to propose a ban on text messaging while driving.
* And there’s more coming down the pike…
White and the state’s Distracting Driving Task Force revealed a five-prong set of recommendations this week that would curb distracted driving in Illinois.
Suggestions include a ban on cell phones in construction and school zones, a new set of penalties for cell phone related collisions and requiring that the hazards of distracted driving be taught in commercial driving schools.
* There are some problems, however…
The catch is proving a driver was actually using a cell phone, Blackberry or other electronic device on the road or during a crash.
According to Ed Maloney, of the Illinois State Bar Association, the state can’t require cell phone companies to give up a driver’s phone records to police in the event of an accident. However, he said the bill’s language could compel drivers to produce those records to police.
* Meanwhile, a feel-good bill zoomed out of the House last week…
When parents complained to state Representative Karen May earlier this year that they missed out on tickets to the teen pop sensation’s Chicago concert, she decided to go after the culprit: online ticket hoarders.
The Illinois House voted 94-0 Friday to make it a misdemeanor for anyone to use software that gives them an edge when trying to get tickets over the Internet.
May says people used software to jam the ticket system, essentially cutting in line to grab large numbers of tickets. The concert sold out in minutes, and tickets were selling for hefty profits shortly afterward on other Web sites.
The bill would make it a misdemeanor for people to use the jamming software.
Thoughts?
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No trust
Monday, May 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Today’s Tribune editorial is partly right…
Illinois FIRST expired in 2004, and the state hasn’t had a capital plan since. It’s not because Illinois has all the infrastructure it needs and certainly not because of a dwindling demand for band uniforms and bocce courts. It’s because lawmakers are afraid—with good reason—that Gov. Rod Blagojevich will hijack the money, axing the goodies meant for lawmakers’ pals and passing out prizes to his own friends instead.
It’s not just that they fear the governor will whack their pork, the bigger fear is that the governor will refuse to release money for much-needed projects in their districts. The solution that the Tribune gets behind won’t assuage their fears…
The Metropolitan Planning Council has a good answer. Alarmed that Illinois has fallen behind other states in its transportation investments, the council proposes a new system for evaluating and ranking capital projects using objective criteria.
Just because something is ranked high doesn’t mean that the governor will release the funding. This is a truly huge problem of the governor’s own making. He simply cannot be trusted on anything.
* Meanwhile, like I told you earlier, I’ve been telling subscribers about these budget developments for the past ten days or so, and reported Friday about this particular point…
Sen. Donne Trotter, D-Chicago, told a group of budget negotiators Thursday that the Senate Democrats intend to pass a “limited growth” state budget and adjourn by May 31. Rep. Gary Hannig, D-Litchfield, the House Democrats’ representative at the negotiations, confirmed the statement.
The House, meanwhile, is putting together its own budget, which will start working its way through House committees next week.
* Actually, there’s more to it than that. A noon budget briefing on Friday revealed that the House has more than one plan. The Daily Herald gives us a brief look…
House Democrats say they’re looking at approving different versions covering a bare-bones maintenance budget to keep the state running once the current budget expires on June 30, and then offering expanded versions as agreement can be found.
The bare-bones version would likely offer no funding increases except where required by law, legislators said. It’s unlikely to please those calling for increased education spending, and advocates of the poor and disabled who say the state isn’t meeting its responsibilities in key areas.
That may not be the budget which surfaces this week. Things have a way of changing. Stay tuned.
* Related…
* State aid could be delayed for Illinois schools
* Estimated proceeds from casino license too high?
* EDITORIAL: Lawmakers must overcome lack of trust
* Veterans Home staff to march against mandatory overtime
* Lawmakers’ odds on adjournment
* Legislature hopes to avoid overtime
* Editorial: They want to . . . pimp us‘
* Kids still face unsafe roads as state holds U.S. funds
* Everything Blagojevich touches does not turn to gold
* Complete study, plan needed before closing prisons
* Legislators push halt to prison closures
* We need new jobs, not a shell game
* If you build it…
* The costs of delay
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Governor unpopular
Monday, May 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My syndicated newspaper column takes a look at a couple of polls that I told subscribers about early last week…
A new statewide poll has found that 59 percent of Illinois registered voters want the Illinois Legislature to begin impeachment hearings against Gov. Rod Blagojevich.
The Glengariff Group poll had Blagojevich’s job approval rating at 26 percent, while his disapproval rating was a mind-boggling 65 percent. The number of voters supporting impeachment is somewhat striking since the “I Word” has not been discussed much in the media.
* The governor’s own party has turned against him…
Even a plurality of Democrats supports holding impeachment hearings. Democratic voters said they supported the idea by a margin of 49.4 percent to 41.5 percent. Independents overwhelmingly like the proposal, backing it 63 to 24. And it’s probably no surprise that Republicans love it. A whopping 73.5 percent of GOP voters said it was a good idea, compared to just 16 percent who said it wasn’t.
* While a clear majority of Illinoisans supports holding hearings, they’re not yet convinced that Gov. Blagojevich should be removed from office, although they do appear to be moving in that direction…
A plurality of 45 percent said they supported “impeachment of Gov. Rod Blagojevich forcing him to leave office,” while 35 percent said they were opposed. Eighteen percent didn’t know.
House Republican Leader Tom Cross has gone out of his way to downplay impeachment talk in the past few weeks. Yet, 57 percent of Republicans and 55 percent of independents want the governor removed. Those numbers ought to give Cross serious pause.
* And here’s the other poll…
Ask Illinois, a group that conducts automated polls, asked 2,301 registered voters this question last week: “If you were given the choice between former Gov. George Ryan and current Gov. Rod Blagojevich, which do you think would do a better job running our state?”
More than half, 52 percent, chose Ryan, the imprisoned former governor. Blagojevich scored 48 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus/minus 2.19 percent.
You know things are bad when you’re losing a popularity contest to a federal inmate.
Read the whole thing.
* Meanwhile, the News-Gazette editorial board has this thought…
The best way to clean up Illinois’ tawdry government is not in limiting who can contribute how much to candidates, but in strengthening disclosure laws as they apply to political candidates and people who do business with the state.
Theoretically, disclosure works because it shames people into doing the right thing. As I’ve been writing for years, there is precious little shame at the Statehouse. Disclosure alone is not nearly enough.
* Related…
* Recall gives people power to reform
* Patty-come-lately on recall
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A stark lesson for all candidates
Monday, May 19, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The New Republic has an excellent look into why Hillary Clinton’s campaign stumbled so badly these past few months. This point, in particular, deserves notice because it is an easily avoided mistake I’ve seen too many times in the past right here in Illinois…
Probably our second biggest mistake was much more operational: Making our chief strategist [Mark Penn] our one and only pollster. It is impossible to disagree and have a counter view on message when the person creating the message is also the person testing the message.”
That is exactly right. The same thing happened to Ron Gidwitz in the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary. His pollster and his media guru were the same people. Gidwitz ended up spending about a million dollars for every percentage point he received in that primary. Bigtime candidates absolutely must have a robust debate over message and over what the polls really mean.
* Penn was an absolute disaster. Case in point…
“[Hillary Clinton] never embraced the mantle from the beginning of being a different kind of candidate. Why did the campaign not do that? Because Mark Penn wanted to do it a different way. Read his book. He thought that you have a list of policy prescriptions. Voters are into that, and that’s how you win. This came at the expense of–and it’s a decision he really pushed for–saying to folks, ‘Yes, she’s a pretty inspiring figure herself.’ … There’s no reason why she’s not a change agent also. But once the CW is set, it just doesn’t change.” […]
“Our message in fact was working very well through September. What we failed to do is pivot when we needed to. We stuck on the same thing. … We didn’t say, ‘OK, everybody gets that she can do this job.’ We never pivoted to what kind of change she could bring. We repackaged the old message and sent it back out. Instead of ‘Ready on Day One,’ we changed to ‘Solutions.’ It was a very IBM approach
* And the coup de grâce…
“Penn was preoccupied with the national polls. We were up in the national polls, but Iowa was always a challenging thing for us. Early, early on, our internals showed us a significant number of points behind. … In Iowa, Penn consistently would show polls that were of the eight-way. That was basically meaningless because it wasn’t going to be an eight-way race. The candidates that were the second-tier candidates were not going to reach the threshold [of 15%]. The real race was the three-way. But he always focused on the eight-way when we’d start going over the numbers in Iowa. It was frustrating to the state staff and other people as well. It just showed a lack of understanding and a disconnect.”
When your pollster has as much power as Penn had, he can’t be overridden. That’s a very dangerous thing. Pollsters have their place on a campaign, but giving them total control over message and strategy is never a good idea.
* Meanwhile, the New York Times takes a look ahead at who might be the first female president…
Mrs. Clinton seemed to have the most success in the last months, fighting like a mama bear for her cubs. So some people look to women who have earned reputations as tough fighters: Lisa Madigan, a Democrat who is attorney general in Illinois, and mentioned as a possible successor to the embattled governor, Rod Blagojevich.
That’s getting a bit ahead of the game, but it’s a thumbsucker piece, so the prediction can be excused I suppose. Madigan has yet to show that she can win a Tier One race, even though her 2002 primary and general election contests were extraordinarily heated affairs. I’ll have more on Madigan’s intentions for subscribers later this week.
* More political stuff…
* Suburban Republicans fear an Obama ballot: “Republicans should take into account that Obama has proven he can attract new voters,” said [Republican state Rep. Ed Sullivan] of Mundelein. “And if you fail to realize you have to get in front of these new voters, the potential is you’re going to lose the election.”
* Ozinga to face questions in downstate feud
* Ozinga lays foundation for campaign
* Bobby Rush recovering after tumor surgery
* Judge: Depose candidate
* Sauerberg answers the prolife question again
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Morning Shorts
Monday, May 19, 2008 - Posted by Kevin Fanning
* The ‘piggy bank’
“From the very limited information that we’ve had access to, it’s apparent that the owners of the hotel cooked the books to conceal profits and fleece taxpayers to avoid making good on a government loan that never should have been made,” said Giannoulias, who last week turned over a 36-page report about the matter to the FBI and Illinois attorney general.
* Treasurer targets GOP insider
* Cahnman, lawmakers blast pair of bills as “hostile to grass-roots democracy”
* Audit: Insiders cooked Lincoln Hotel’s books
* Rezko trial jury instructions
* A lesson from the Rezko trial: the power of money
* Rezko case is all about the Benjamins
* Governor in middle of case
* Rezko case puts big question mark on Illinois politics
* California gay marriage ruling will affect Illinois: State Sen. Bill Brady, a Bloomington Republican and likely gubernatorial aspirant for 2010, said Friday he will initiate next year another drive for a constitutional ban. The California ruling, Brady said, “gives more credence to the fact that we need to strengthen the constitution based on the wishes of voters and not leave it to a court.”
* Same-Sex Marriages Likely A Long Way Off In Ill.
* Gay marriage not likely in Illinois any time soon
* Unwise haste on gay marriage
* Editorial: Take a stand on same-sex unions
* Circle of life
Roughly 16 percent of babies born to African-American women weigh less than 5 pounds, 8 ounces, compared to 7 percent for whites, according to the most recent birth data released in 2005, Onwuta said.
* 2008 State of Fair Housing in the 6-County Region and Blueprint for Change
* Credit Crunch Crunches Illinois Housing Sales, Prices in 2008
ccording to the 2008 first quarter report from the Illinois Association of Realtors, total home sales (which include single-family homes and condominiums) totaled 21,576, down 27.0% from 29,553 in the first quarter of 2007.
* Food stamp recipients struggle through the month
* Heads we lose, tails we lose
* Daley: Whatever it takes
In the case of the museum, legal covenants that have kept Grant Park “forever open, clear and free” were ignored by the Daley-controlled Chicago Plan Commission.
* Taverns might be serving drinks at sidewalk cafes
* County clout for ex-cons
“This is more evidence that the ‘Friends and Family’ hiring plan is in full swing,” said Jay Stewart of the Better Government Association, adding, “It is clear that he isn’t going to reach beyond his inner circle” to fill top jobs.
* Daley’s Michigan neighbor says fire may be linked to cougar death
* Secrets from the crypt
* Why foie gras is controversial
The best weapon against animal abuse and cruelty is honest information, widely distributed. In that spirit, let us offer a brief, dispassionate description of how foie gras is produced. Emily Patterson-Kane, an animal welfare scientist at the American Veterinary Medical Association in Schaumburg, explains:
* New Scavenger Boat to Clean Chicago River
* State house passes Shib’s Law
Dubbed “Shib’s Law” after James “Shib” Miller, a Sesser firefighter who was killed in the line of duty when a bus hit him along Interstate 57 last July, the proposal would permit firefighters to close off lanes of traffic while responding to an emergency.
* Rep. Watson hopeful on Iraq
* Who’s Hiding The Hybrids?
* Timberline Knolls Supports Illinois House Bill 1432 to Provide Fair and Equal Coverage for Eating Disorders
* State Fair Grandstand Tickets On Sale
* Scholarships honor politician’s passion for civics
Receiving the 2008 Patrick S. Botterman Leadership Award were Chet Farley, 25, and Kelly Friskics, 25, founders of Northwest Suburbs for Obama. The two were recognized for recruiting volunteers, raising money, canvassing in several states, coordinating phone banks and registering voters.
* Lawmakers want to put brakes on Canadian National Railway
Congresswoman Melissa Bean, D-Barrington, and U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill, on Friday urged federal regulators to reject this week’s request by the CN to complete the environmental review by Nov. 3 and approve the acquisition by Dec. 1.
* Piracy in Crystal Lake
* Motorcycle promoter cancels swap meet over fears of violence
* Chicago students deliver gun control petitions
* Schools in Illinois are now required to use green cleaners
* ‘Three times is three times too many’ for kids left on buses
* Safe driving is big business
* Congress picks Illinois for military program
The governor’s office says Congress has picked Illinois as one of 20 states to join a program that helps military families in need.
* LED Lighting in State Buildings
* Birkett the prosecutor out of line
* Ozzie refuses to play race card
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