* In the end, despite the goofy “Mike Madigan is to blame for everything, including my ouster” stuff, the gay marriage flap actually saved Pat Brady’s hide, at least for now…
The Illinois Republican Party’s central committee backed off an attempt to fire party chairman Pat Brady on Saturday, amid concern that ousting him because of his support for gay marriage could damage GOP efforts to appeal to more moderate voters. […]
Committeemen had scheduled a Saturday meeting in the Chicago suburb of Tinley Park to consider firing him, but it was canceled late Friday, partly because it became clear there weren’t enough votes to remove Brady.
State Sen. Dave Syverson, a committeeman and party treasurer, said the vote would have been close, but members who had concerns about Brady separate from his gay marriage stance “didn’t want to be thrown in with those” concerned about it.
* Oberweis was left with his talking points…
State Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) said the issue is Brady’s fitness for the post and loyalty to the party platform.
“It’s got nothing to do with gay marriage,” Oberweis said of the effort to boot Brady. “It could have been ObamaCare.
Yeah, OK. Nothing to do with gay marriage. Right.
* Some of the party’s top dogs worked the phones for the chairman…
U.S. Senator Mark Kirk — the Highland Park Republican who two months ago returned to Congress after suffering a stroke — personally placed calls to committeemen Friday, urging them to change their minds. House Republican Leader Tom Cross, of Oswego, did the same.
“There’s some people on the committee that don’t like him, but Pat Brady has a lot of friends from Springfield to Washington, D.C.,” said State Rep. Jim Durkin, of Western Springs, who was planning to represent Brady at the meeting. “We will defend him as the day is long.”
* This was a nicely planted piece…
The Illinois GOP committeemen calling for Chairman Pat Brady’s ouster say they are doing so because his support for same-sex marriage directly contradicts the party platform, its set of governing principles.
But a look at the party’s 14-page 2012 platform finds some of those committeemen might have also acted in violation of those GOP standards.
Committeemen have taken actions or positions in violation of the party platform on gambling, political contributions and more. […]
Oberweis himself, during a 2002 run for U.S. Senate, stated a position on abortion that differed from party views, though he has since refined his stance to oppose abortion.
Oddly enough, as of 12:30 this afternoon, Illinois Review has no posts on the Brady topic.
* Related…
* Former Illinois governors warn against firing GOP chair over gay marriage flap - Republicans Jim Thompson and Jim Edgar urge a ‘big tent’ approach ahead of a possible vote to oust Pat Brady.
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The perils of an unconstitutional solution
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The IFT’s Dan Montgomery has probably the best argument I’ve seen for avoiding the passage of a pension reform plan that appears unconstitutional…
As reason for their recent downgrade of Illinois’ bond rating, Standard and Poor’s warned that unconstitutional cuts would invite “legal challenges” and cause “several years” of uncertainty. Legislators took an oath of office to support the Constitution, yet many have said the courts should do their jobs for them. Passing an illegal bill to the courts is just passing the buck to taxpayers.
Proponents of the Nekritz-Cross plan are going so far in private as to say the plan probably doesn’t pass constitutional muster, but that the pension funding crisis is so bad that it gives the General Assembly certain latitude, even police-type powers. Even so, that’ll take a while for the courts to sort out.
* My syndicated newspaper column…
Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan was hoping Thursday to avoid the same dismal results as the previous week when he presented some new, and harsh, pension reform ideas.
The week before, one of his pension proposals received just one vote, his own. None of his other proposals got more than five votes.
That wasn’t supposed to happen. Members of his leadership team thought some of those amendments would get at least a few dozen votes. Oops.
Making matters worse, the House Republicans refused to participate in the process, with not a single member voting up, down or “present” on Madigan’s amendments.
Asked on Wednesday’s “Illinois Lawmakers” television program about the GOP’s refusal to vote, Madigan (D-Chicago) said the Republicans had made a “mistake.”
“They’re elected,” Madigan told host Jak Tichenor. “And their electors tell them to come here and vote. They don’t tell them to come here and not participate.”
The Republicans have said their refusal to vote was in protest over Madigan running so-called “gotcha” amendments that were designed solely to make them look bad and provide fodder for negative advertising campaigns.
But in reality, the GOP is going to get zinged no matter what. Refusing to vote on a series of controversial bills easily could be turned into a nasty ad program.
Last week, however, party discipline cracked a little when two House Republicans broke ranks and voted for a Madigan-sponsored amendment to cap the “pensionable” income of government workers at Social Security’s taxable income cap.
That means no further pension benefits can be earned by a state employee making more than $113,000, or whatever Social Security sets the level at in the future.
Reps. David Harris (R-Arlington Heights) and David McSweeney (R-Barrington Hills) both voted “yes” on the amendment, while all other Republicans refused to vote.
McSweeney also voted “yes” on two other Madigan amendments — freezing cost-of-living raises for 10 years and requiring active employees to chip in an extra 4 percent of their pay for their pensions.
Like the week before, when Madigan introduced similarly extreme measures, those two amendments got just a few votes.
A more comprehensive pension reform plan sponsored by state Rep. Elaine Nekritz (D-Northbrook) and House Minority Leader Tom Cross (R-Oswego) is expected to move through a committee this week.
But don’t expect a floor vote any time soon. Cross’ people said publicly that they have 30 votes for the bill, but some insiders are saying otherwise, with one claiming that the number is more like 20. The Democrats may not even have that many.
While the Democrats have a super-majority in the House, they aren’t closer to passing a major pension reform bill now than in the past. Most Democratic legislators by nature just don’t like the idea of forcing cuts on retirees or making them pay more for health insurance or slapping workers with higher pension payments.
And to see how this pension reform problem is stacking up, you might want to take a look at last week’s roll call on a bill to allow people convicted of drug-related felonies to get cash from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program.
The bill received 36 “yes” votes, with 80 voting “no.” The roll call provides a pretty good road map for where the real liberals are in the House. The “yes” votes were generally the folks who would be far less willing to cut retiree pensions and to favor alternative solutions such as tax increases and placing the burden on the affluent.
So, doing something like capping pensionable income at $113,000 per year makes sense to most of those more liberal Democrats. Just two members who voted for the TANF drug felony bill voted against the income cap.
Rep. Naomi Jakobsson (D-Urbana) was one of them, for obvious reasons. She has lots of highly paid University of Illinois employees in her district.
“My sense of the attitude of the members of the Legislature is that they’re not yet ready to take this difficult step (voting for pension reform),” Madigan said on Tichenor’s program, adding that he’s holding the pension votes to “better educate the members of the House and the Senate.”
The bottom line is that it’s going to be a while before legislators are “educated” enough to get to a resolution of this very thorny pension issue.
Subscribers know more about the reasoning that AFSCME could be pushed back to the bargaining table and about the Senate’s plans.
* Rep. McSweeney, by the way, explained his vote for Madigan’s amendments in a recent op-ed…
Speaker of the House Michael Madigan finally has started to address pension reform on the House floor. He has designed the process to try to force very tough votes by members. On Thursday, I voted for all three measures that would limit future cost-of-living adjustments, cap the pensionable salary amount, and increase employee contributions.
The stakes are high on passing pension reform. Unless we act immediately, education will continue to be cut and pressure will build to increase taxes. I will strongly oppose any future tax increases. A tax increase would hurt families and kill jobs.
* Related…
* Legal opinion calls pension plan into question - Opinion says plan could be unconstitutional if it covers retired teachers
* Editorial: Quinn Budget a Nonstarter: Gov. Pat Quinn’s budget plan, offered Wednesday, has been met downstate with a resounding thud and even casual disdain or tepid support in Quinn’s hometown of Chicago
* VIDEO: Reactions to Gov Quinn’s Budget Address - We talk with Sen Jim Oberweis (R) about his reaction to the Governor’s FY 2014 Budget Address. The we talk with Joe McCoy Illinois Municipal League — about the impact the Governor’s proposed cuts will have on cities.
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Question of the day
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lynn Sweet…
Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, I’m told, now is very close to deciding to run for governor in 2014, where she would face Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn and possibly former White House Chief of Staff/Commerce Secretary Bill Daley in a Democratic primary.
Madigan has a major fund-raiser set for March 18 at Wildfire, 159 W. Erie, with the price tiers running from $1,000 to $5,000. The theme is to mark her 10 years as Illinois’ attorney general — and all her accomplishments.
* Greg Hinz says Daley is hanging back for now…
Sources close to Mr. Daley say he understands that his probability of winning the March 2014 Democratic primary would be pretty low in a three-way race with Ms. Madigan and incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn, who has said he’ll seek a new term.
As a result, Mr. Daley has told friends, it’s highly unlikely he will run if she does.
* The Question: Do you think Lisa Madigan will run for governor? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
web survey
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A familiar story
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune ran a story not long ago about a $90 million bond sold by the Field Museum that it didn’t have enough resources to service. Some of the juicier parts…
Although the bonds, issued in September 2002, were rated as investment grade, there were signs that the Field might not be ready to take on that much debt. Less than a year before, museum staff assessed the Field’s bond capacity at only $50 million, according to a letter submitted to the state. […]
The loan was risky not just in size but in structure. Unlike previous bonds the Field took out, it allowed the museum to make lower interest payments up front and push off bigger ones until later. Meanwhile, no principal was due until the loan matures in 2036.
The bond pushed the museum’s total liability to $200 million — more than the $189 million in assets it had available to pay off debt, according to the Field’s audited financial statements. The Field’s total annual bond debt payment rose from $2.4 million in 2002 to $4.9 million in 2003 It now stands at $7.5 million.
Looks like those crazy no-principal mortgage loans which were all the rage right before the economy collapsed.
Keep in mind that Chicago’s elite financiers have always played a huge role on the Field Museum’s board (and on Bruce Rauner’s campaign, but that’s another story). And those guys appeared to do to the Field what some of them also did to the entire planet.
* Cooking the numbers…
After nine years of deficits, the Field finally started showing an operating surplus in 2009. But the improvement was due mostly to a change in accounting practices rather than a financial turnaround, according to a Tribune analysis of the museum’s financial reports. That year, the museum stopped counting depreciation — wear and tear on the museum’s building and exhibits — as an annual operating expense. […]
Yet the museum pointed out the surplus to its lenders in an August 2012 bond document filed a month before McCarter’s retirement. The filing did not highlight the new accounting method, asserting instead that positive operating results were accomplished through “the continued implementation” of the fiscal stability plan launched in 2010.
* Golden parachutes…
That same year, McCarter announced he would retire and the museum paid him an $874,375 bonus that more than doubled his overall pay from the previous year, according to tax filings.
* Which combined, of course, to force the Field to do things like eat its seed corn…
By 2011, the rating agency Standard & Poor’s had lowered its outlook on the Field’s 2002 bond. Facing the threat of a slip in its credit rating, the museum used money from its endowment to pay down $12 million of its debt — a move that most museums try to avoid because they depend on investment income from endowments to operate.
* And jack up entrance fees and cut the budget…
Lariviere also plans to cut the museum’s budget, which was about $63 million in 2011, by $5 million. He has said $3 million of the cuts could come from what used to be the museum’s century-old science departments, now merged into one.
The Field employs 27 curators, scientists who discover new species and uncover artifacts that illuminate ancient cultures. They help design exhibits but also collect specimens around the world and publish internationally known research. The Field had 37 curators in 2000 but lost 10 and has not replaced them.
Oy.
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*** UPDATE *** Check this out from the October 25, 2005 edition of the Bond Buyer…
Republican lawmakers yesterday charged Illinois Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s administration with including misleading information regarding the state’s financial condition in the offering documents for a $300 million general obligation bond deal that sold last month.
The information being disputed was included on page 21 of the competitive transaction’s preliminary official statement under the section, “Fiscal Year 2006 Budget.”
The document informs readers that a reduction in some pension benefits adopted during the most recent legislative session would result in a lowering of the state’s required annual contribution to the underfunded pension systems over the next 40 years. The reforms allowed the state to lower its payment owed to the pension systems in fiscal 2006 by $1.2 billion from an original $2.5 billion.
Citing estimates provided by the independent actuary of the General Assembly’s bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, the document notes that the combination of reduced benefits and revised contributions would result “in a range of net savings totaling approximately $3 billion over” the 40-year term. The state had pulled the information from a commission report that outlined three fiscal scenarios that could occur as a result of the pension legislation. After seeing the bond documents, the commission’s executive director, Dan Long, late last month sent a memorandum to Democratic and Republican Senate leaders criticizing the content.
“The above statement implies that CGFA’s estimate of the fiscal impact … is a long-term state contribution savings of $3 billion, which we believe is misleading,” Long wrote. “The impact of the three scenarios ranged from a long-term cost of almost $4.7 billion to a long-term savings of $3.1 billion. It is still too early to determine the precise impact of the significant changes to the pension system.”
Republicans, who represent the minority in the Senate, jumped on Long’s statements to criticize the governor as he was poised to address the legislature to promote passage of a program to expand health care coverage to all children living in the state. The General Assembly convened yesterday for its two-week long annual veto session. “Instead of being honest with the taxpayers, legislators, and credit rating agencies, the administration appears to have deliberately tried to mislead everyone about the state’s financial condition,” Sen. Christine Radogno, R-Lemont, said in a statement issued by Senate Republicans, who have forwarded the information to the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Prescient.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Barn door, horses, etc. From an SEC press release…
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged the State of Illinois with securities fraud for misleading municipal bond investors about the state’s approach to funding its pension obligations.
An SEC investigation revealed that Illinois failed to inform investors about the impact of problems with its pension funding schedule as the state offered and sold more than $2.2 billion worth of municipal bonds from 2005 to early 2009. Illinois failed to disclose that its statutory plan significantly underfunded the state’s pension obligations and increased the risk to its overall financial condition. The state also misled investors about the effect of changes to its statutory plan.
Illinois, which implemented a number of remedial actions and issued corrective disclosures beginning in 2009, agreed to settle the SEC’s charges.
Nice to see that the SEC is so Johnnie on the spot. We could’ve used those insights when Blagojevich was still governor. Four years later, they push for a settlement.
From the governor’s office…
The State of Illinois and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) entered into a settlement order Monday ending an inquiry into pension disclosures in bond offerings made by the State between 2005 and early 2009. The order acknowledged the proactive steps taken by the State to enhance its pension disclosures and related processes since 2009. The State began these enhancements prior to being contacted by the SEC.
The State believed it to be in its best interests to enter into a settlement with the SEC. The State has cooperated fully with the SEC throughout the inquiry. The State neither admits nor denies the findings in the order, which carries no fines or penalties.
The settlement order describes the long, complicated history of Illinois’ pension-funding issues over the decades. After taking office in early 2009, the Quinn administration began taking steps to proactively address these issues, including forming a Pension Modernization Task Force and providing additional information in its bond offering documents.
In August 2010, the SEC announced it was entering into a cease and desist order with the state of New Jersey concerning its pension disclosures. In response to the SEC’s New Jersey action, the State thought it prudent to proactively hire legal counsel to review Illinois’ pension disclosures. The State subsequently enhanced its pension disclosures in its bond offering documents and made changes to its disclosure practices, including:
· The retention of a single law firm to act as disclosure counsel to provide a consistent, proactive and continuing review of the State’s bond disclosures; and
· The adoption of formal policies and procedures that include review of the State’s pension disclosures by the pension systems themselves.
A month after the New Jersey order was issued, and after the State had hired legal counsel to review its pension disclosures, the State was notified by the SEC that the agency would be examining Illinois’ pension disclosures. The State has disclosed the SEC’s inquiry in all bond offerings since the inquiry began in September, 2010, as widely covered in the press.
From the SEC order…
The State has taken significant steps to correct these process deficiencies and enhance its pension disclosures. Among other things, the State issued enhanced disclosures; retained disclosure counsel; instituted written policies and procedures, disclosure controls, and training programs; and designated a disclosure committee.
* The SEC also harshly criticized the 50-year “ramp” devised by former Gov. Jim Edgar…
Enacted in 1994, the Illinois Pension Funding Act (the “Statutory Funding Plan”) established a pension contribution schedule that was not sufficient to cover both (1) the cost of benefits accrued in the current year and (2) a payment to amortize the plans’ unfunded actuarial liability. This methodology structurally underfunded the State’s pension obligations and backloaded the majority of pension contributions far into the future. The resulting systematic underfunding imposed significant stress on the pension systems and on the State’s ability to meet its competing obligations. […]
Rather than controlling the State’s growing pension burden, the Statutory Funding Plan’s contribution schedule increased the unfunded liability, underfunded the State’s pension obligations, and deferred pension funding. This resulting underfunding of the pension systems (“Structural Underfunding”) enabled the State to shift the burden associated with its pension costs to the future and, as a result, created significant financial stress and risks for the State. […]
The 90 percent funding target allowed the State to amortize the UAAL in a manner that would not eliminate it entirely. By failing to amortize the UAAL completely, the State was able to lower its contributions. However, by assuring that some portion of the UAAL would remain outstanding, it also increased the economic cost of the pensions and delayed the cash outlays necessary to fulfill its pension obligations.
The State’s plan also spread costs over fifty years, in contrast to the thirty-year amortization period adopted by the pension plans of most other states. The longer amortization period extended the amount of time required to pay down the UAAL, reducing the State’s annual statutory contributions while increasing the real cost of the pensions over time.
The State’s phased contributions during the fifteen-year ramp period accelerated the growth of the UAAL during this time period and amplified the burden and risk associated with the State’s plan.
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The Rauner oppo dump begins
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz has a story which shows some dots that may connect potential Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner to admitted felon Stu Levine, who helped bring down Bill Cellini, Ed Vrdolyak and Tony Rezko…
In testimony during the 2008 trial of Blagojevich pal Tony Rezko, Mr. Levine and others said Mr. Levine had had a $25,000-a-month contract “consulting” for CompBenefits Corp., an Atlanta-based dental and vision benefits company once known as CompDent. According to its website, CompBenefits at the time of Mr. Levine’s contract principally was owned by four private-equity firms, including GTCR LLC. Mr. Rauner, a founder of GTCR, is the “R” in the acronym.
Mr. Levine said his job was to get work for CompBenefits through whatever means were needed, including payoffs. A 2005 Sun-Times article says the firm then held contracts covering tens of thousands of workers at Chicago Public Schools and with the state.
Mr. Levine testified that he’d paid a bribe to obtain the CPS work, worked with insiders Bill Cellini and Ed Vrdolyak on other deals (both men later were convicted in unrelated federal cases) and plotted with Mr. Rezko to get work with Cook County via Orlando Jones, a key insider who later committed suicide.
Messrs. Levine and Rezko eventually went to prison on other matters, and prosecutors never took any action on CompBenefits. Perhaps that’s because they could not corroborate Mr. Levine’s testimony, or perhaps it’s because some major figures were going to prison anyway. I don’t know. Neither do I know whether Mr. Rauner or GTCR knew the details of what the firm was up to prior to the federal probe.
But I do know that Mr. Rauner, GTCR and Stu Levine had another interaction. That came in 2003, when the board of the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System—on which Mr. Levine served—first tabled and then approved GTCR’s bid to get a $50 million investment from the giant pension fund.
According to a Sun-Times account, the bid stalled at the board’s February 2003 meeting after Mr. Levine objected but then was zipped through in May, when Mr. Rauner attended the board session. Now-retired TRS Executive Director Jon Bauman corroborates the gist of the newspaper report. He adds that he believes the February flop mostly was because of a bad presentation by GTCR but also says he does not know the particulars of Mr. Levine’s motives.
* From that 2005 Sun-Times story about the federal subpoenas of CompBenefits-related records…
TRS had already given GTCR at least $70 million to invest when GTCR made a new $50 million pitch in February 2003, said TRS executive director Jon Bauman.
GTCR sent only one representative, “which is usually not a good idea [because] you don’t have somebody to help you out if you get in trouble. He got in trouble,” Bauman said.
Levine questioned the representative so aggressively that, rather than approving the deal, the board of trustees decided to table it, Bauman said.
Three months later, in May 2003, three GTCR representatives showed up, including partner Bruce Rauner. This time around, Levine was much more low-key. In fact, Bauman said, he couldn’t recall Levine asking any questions, and Levine and other board members approved the $50 million deal with GTCR.
Herron wouldn’t disclose the timing of Levine’s work for CompBenefits, but Bauman said if that work overlapped with Levine’s TRS service, TRS board members would have wanted to know about it at the time of Levine’s GTCR vote.
The timing is an issue here. If Levine got that CompBenefits gig after the first unsuccessful TRS vote and before the second vote, then there’s a very serious problem. If not, then it’s not as bad. Neither article has that info, and I wasn’t able to find it online.
But stay tuned. There’s more oppo coming.
* Illinois Review took a look at Rauner’s 2002 campaign contributions…
Rauner’s state contributions are here.
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Durbin will run again
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Tribune had the unsurprising scoop…
Dick Durbin, Illinois’ senior U.S. senator and the No. 2 Democrat in the chamber, is telling top Democrats he will seek a fourth term in 2014, sources familiar with his decision said Friday.
Durbin’s re-election bid alleviates any concerns from Democrats nationally and in Illinois that the 68-year-old lawmaker would step down from the seat previously held by his mentor, the late U.S. Sen. Paul Simon. […]
In 2010, Durbin underwent surgery to remove a non-cancerous mass from his stomach.
Durbin easily won re-election in 2008, scoring 68 percent of the vote against little-known Republican physician Steve Sauerberg.
It is questionable whether the GOP will try to recruit a high-profile candidate for a tough race against Durbin in 2014 when Republicans have been placing a greater priority on winning the Illinois governor’s office back from Democrats.
Weeks ago, I told subscribers that Durbin had zero interest in an Obama cabinet position. That decision seemed to point to another run.
* Lynn Sweet…
Durbin is in absolutely no rush to make any official announcement and his core supporters have understood for some time that he will seek re-election, I’m told.
Durbin has held more than 20 fund-raisers since November and as of Dec. 31 had $2,590,707 cash-on-hand in his campaign fund.
Starting in early April, Durbin will step up his political travel, I’m told, speaking around the country for other Democrats and for himself. […]
Durbin has no opponent on the horizon–either for a Democratic primary or a Republican. Illinois Republicans who are looking for statewide races are far more interested so far in running for governor.
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Today’s quote
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This quote comes from 1994, after the House Republicans had won control of the chamber in the national GOP landslide…
Steve Brown, House Speaker Michael Madigan’s spokesman, said at the time: “We’re obviously surprised by the overall outcome. [Republicans] are all out of excuses now. They’ll have to produce.”
Discuss.
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The old way will always be the best way
Monday, Mar 11, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Andrew Sullivan highlighted this WaPo WonkBlog post over the weekend, and I thought it was worth sharing. The excerpt is from an interview of Sasha Issenberg, the author of “The Victory Lab: The Secret Science of Winning Campaigns.” Most of the pros here will already know this stuff, but it always helps to repeat it…
Two political scientists at Yale, Donald Green and Alan Gerber, went out and did a field experiment, which was a big deal at the time because political science lagged behind other social sciences in using field experiments to measure cause and effect in elections.
The first experiment was that they created a local GOTV [get out the vote] drive in New Haven and had voters get a reminder from a postcard, a canvasser, or paid callers, and then had a control group, who got nothing. And we learn there that the phone call group had no increase in voting, mail had a small increase, and there was a big boost from the in-person contact. It was hard to get the paper published because they made no theoretical contributions to debates going on in the discipline. It was almost embarrassingly practical. But it was the first time that anyone had developed a method for assessing the effectiveness of anything the campaigns spent money on.
The campaigns went out and did a bunch more of these comparative effectiveness studies, as opposed to mass media, where it’s really hard to isolate voters and implement controls. When you’re measuring turnout and registration rates, it’s very easy to select some people to get your mail. In that case, the dependent variable is whether they voted or registered, which is an easy thing to track. In the last few years it’s moved a lot to the behavioral psychology-informed bent, trying to demonstrate things that have been demonstrated in lab experiments about how to change motivations around voting.
In-person doorstep contact is more effective at mobilizing voters than phone calls. Volunteer phone calls are better than paid phone calls. Voters are able to sense the difference. We know that what people in politics now call “chatty scripts,” where the caller or canvasser is encouraged to have an open-ended back and forth, are much more effective than robotic scripts.
Now there’s been a whole body of work on which types of language are better at getting people to vote. Almost all of them have to do with changing the dynamic around voting. The best messages often don’t have much to do with the candidates or issues but with mobilizing voting and getting people excited for the election. Referring to people as voters has been shown to increase somebody’s likelihood of voting. We have a whole sort of body of research about the contact and the quality of contact that we didn’t 15 years ago.
This is one big reason why Republican candidates in Illinois are often at a disadvantage. They rely too much on robocalls and not nearly enough on in-person contacts. The House Democrats, on the other hand, make sure their candidates walk 40-50 hours a week for months. They have people in the precincts every day, not just bused-in folks for Saturday afternoon blitzes.
* I often tell the story of my paternal Grandmother, a lifelong Democrat. Back in, I think 1959, she met John F. Kennedy at a Teamsters Union event where he put his arm around her, kissed her on the cheek and told my grandfather that he had a beautiful wife. You just couldn’t say a bad word about JFK to her, ever - or a Democrat, for that matter. But Grandma voted for a Republican in a county race years ago because he came to her door and asked for her vote. She had known the Democratic candidate for decades, but he didn’t ask for her vote that year.
There is absolutely no substitute for physically touching voters. And there never will be. Talk all you want about technology. But unless the tech is directly related to helping a physical street canvass, then it’s mostly a waste of money.
And if you can’t touch them, using volunteers to talk with voters is the next best thing. Robocalls are cheap, which is why they’re so over-used. And while they might have an impact at the margins, they’re nowhere near as effective as real people telling real stories about why they are voting for a candidate.
This is one big reason why Joe Walsh was able to ride the Republican wave in 2010 and defeat what many thought was a fairly safe incumbent Democratic congressperson. Walsh had people in the streets. He walked. His people walked. His organization reached out and touched them. He won and blew the establishment’s collective mind. That same year, the Statehouse Democrats held onto their majority by doing the same sort of thing, without the histrionics, of course, but you get the idea.
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* An e-mail from Illinois GOP State Central Committeeman Mark Shaw announces Saturday’s cancellation…
From: Mark Shaw
Sent: Friday, March 08, 2013 10:17 PM
To: Illinois Republican State Central Committee
Subject: Rescheduling of March 9, 2013 State Central Committee Meeting
Dear GOP Leaders:
The March 9, 2013 State Central Committee Meeting is being rescheduled because the State Chairman has not responded to our request that he be present in person or by telephone for the meeting. Details about the new date, time and location of this meeting will be sent out to all of you once they are finalized. We are sorry for the late notice but we wanted to give the Chairman every opportunity to respond to our request that he be present in person or by telephone at this meeting.
Respectfully,
Chris Kachiroubas (C.D. 6)
Eugene Dawson (C.D. 
Mark Shaw (C.D. 10)
Barbara Peterson (C.D. 11)
Jerry Clarke (C.D. 15)
Bob Winchester (C.D. 19)
Mark L. Shaw, Esq.
SHAW LAW LTD.
Some of the back story is here.
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*** UPDATE *** I just talked to Dorgan. Sen. Mark Kirk called him today and he’s decided not to participate in the Brady vote. Kirk is supporting Brady’s retention.
That’s a class decision by Dorgan, much more than Brady deserves at this point.
In calling around, I’m told that there’s also a move afoot to cancel tomorrow’s meeting and give state central committee members some breathing room.
Stay tuned.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* The Sun-Times has a story up about tomorrow’s vote by the Republican Party that could oust chairman Pat Brady. I’m told there are three people who won’t say what they’ll do, and if all three vote against Brady, he’s out.
One of those three is Jack Dorgan, a Statehouse lobbyist whose partner is former House Majority Leader Jim McPike. Chairman Brady believes that Madigan is secretly pressuring Dorgan…
And while saying he has no direct proof, Brady believes Madigan or his minions are pressuring Dorgan to cast an anti-Brady vote as revenge for the “Fire Madigan” campaign Brady devised last year. That campaign included setting up a website last fall that sold an array of goods emblazoned with the “Fire Madigan” logo, including dog t-shirts.
“The math adds up,” Brady said of the possible Madigan link. “This is not an original thought by me. This is what a lot of people suspect is going on.
“No one has ever publicly taken him on,” Brady said of Madigan.
Wow. Interesting spin. Use the guy who beat you like a cheap rug last year to save your own hide by claiming that your enemies on the far right are actually his unwitting accomplices.
Dorgan’s response…
But Dorgan denied talking to Madigan or any of his emissaries about voting out Brady and called suggestions to the contrary “ludicrous.”
“Mike Madigan says as much to me as he says to anyone else, and that’s ‘Good morning,’” Dorgan said. “I got a text about this, and whoever’s saying this is making the most ridiculous statement I’ve ever heard in my life.
As with many Statehouse lobster partnerships, McPike handles the Democrats and Dorgan handles the Republicans. Dorgan is also extremely close to former state Rep. Skip Saviano, who was openly at war with Madigan until Madigan’s candidate beat him last November. Saviano and Madigan have since buried the hatchet.
Brady may have gone back to the “Fire Madigan” well one too many times with this one. Charging that one of his own state central committeemen is nothing more than a stooge for the other party is just way over the line.
I think I’ll keep comments open for a while.
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Today’s quote
Friday, Mar 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sen. Kirk Dillard told the Daily Herald that he may wait until after the spring session is over to formally kick off his gubernatorial campaign. Asked about potential GOP rival Bruce Rauner, Dillard called him a friend and gave him some unsoliciated advice…
“I think there’s an important role for Bruce Rauner in state government. We need him,” Dillard said. “But it might not be the actual governorship where he can best serve the people of Illinois.”
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*** UPDATE *** The Municipal League has updated with correct numbers…
The Governor’s Office is proposing to cap LGDF revenue distributions using State Fiscal Year 2012 as the base year. In other words, cities and counties would not receive any LGDF revenue growth above and beyond what was received in State Fiscal Year 2012. This is absolutely unacceptable!
There is very real discussion among legislators regarding capping LGDF revenue. The IML has had several conversations with legislators who share this view of putting LGDF revenue on the table. The prospect of having to cut spending priorities, such as education, has created a renewed sense of desperation for revenue. THEY WANT OUR MONEY!
The IML received advance notice that the Governor was looking at reducing LGDF revenue by $240 million. Using this number, we estimated that the financial impact would be $18.70 per resident. As it turns out, the $240 million included transfers from approximately 80 funds, including LGDF. The $18.70 estimate based upon that number is therefore too high.
We believe, however, that the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is vastly underestimating the financial impact of the proposed LGDF cap and that our revised estimate is more accurate. The OMB believes that cities and counties would “only” lose $68 million, or $5.30 per resident. Using data from the Illinois Department of Revenue and our own financial projections, we believe that the revenue loss would be approximately $148 million, or $11.50 per resident. Keep in mind that this only reflects the “cap” proposals. Other proposals may surface.
Again, this is absolutely unacceptable.
Local government revenues are further endangered each year that the underlying causes of the State’s financial crisis go unresolved. Legislators and the Governor are chafing at having to make spending cuts to critical priorities like education. This places LGDF at great risk.
We are barely into the first act of what will likely prove to be a long play. We urge our members to consistently remind legislators and the Governor that taking LGDF revenue will not solve the state’s financial problem, but will only create tremendous financial problems for hundreds of local governments throughout Illinois.
They also have a video.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* The Illinois Municipal League fired up the mayors with a Facebook post this week…
It’s on! The IML has learned that the Governor’s Office is proposing to reduce LGDF (state-shared income tax) revenue by $240 million. We have also learned that some legislators are supporting the use of LGDF revenue to address the state’s fiscal woes. To calculate the financial impact to each community, multiply the municipal population by $18.70. The IML STRONGLY urges that our members contact their legislators IMMEDIATELY in opposition to this proposed local revenue reduction. The IML will provide additional information as events develop.
Unfortunately, that’s not true. The $240 million is the total number of all automatic transfers that are being looked at by the governors. Local governments’ share of that is much smaller.
* Whatever the amount, the issue has mayors up in arms…
“It’s a classic example of the legislature not being able to take care of their own house and now looking to the cities who have been responsible with their money,” said Normal Mayor Chris Koos.
“This would just compound our own pension issues,” said Lincoln Mayor Keith Snyder.
“Just because the state of Illinois is going down the tubes doesn’t mean he’s got to take the cities down with him,” Marion Mayor Bob Butler said.
Downstate lawmakers say the proposal has mayors throughout the state stomping mad.
* In other budget-related news, Chicago Democrats have for months pushed a plan to shift a half a percentage point of employer pension costs to local school districts a year over a period of several years. The districts have resisted, and their allies in the General Assembly claim the cost shift would lead to property tax hikes.
But the GA cut education funding last year by $210 million, the second straight year of cuts. And the governor has proposed a $278 million cut this year, which amounts to three percent. One reason for the cuts is that state pension costs have zoomed ever higher. From the governor’s budget address…
Without pension reform, within two years, Illinois will be spending more on public pensions than on education.
* The reaction from schools has been predictably intense…
Roger Eddy, a former state lawmaker and school superintendent who now heads the Illinois Association of School Boards, said he’s not sure whether some districts will be able to collect enough local dollars to make up for the loss of state money.
In addition, under a law aimed at capping property taxes, school districts have limits on what they can raise from local taxpayers.
“It’s going to devastate school districts,” Eddy said of Quinn’s proposal.
Bill Farley, assistant superintendent for business operations for Wheaton-based Community Unit School District 200 in DuPage County, said that at some point the cuts have to stop.
“The state continues to whittle away at funding, which was lacking from the start, and it puts more and more pressure on the local community to pay for the education of our students,” he said.
* And…
Sycamore School District 427, already considering eliminating seven positions in part because of lack of state funding, could be out of close to $1 million in general state aid under Quinn’s plan, Glowiak said. Even more funding would be lost with transportation funding expected to be prorated at 19 percent.
“We seem to want to find scapegoats to beat up and the governor and a couple legislative leaders are making the scapegoat the pensions and schools and that’s disappointing,” Glowiak said.
The cut to transportation funding was the main concern for most local school officials, including James Briscoe, superintendent of DeKalb School District 428.
The district lost $300,000 in transportation funding this year, which contributed to a $2.3 million deficit, and is expected to lose even more this coming school year, Briscoe said. The steep cut to transportation almost assuredly means another deficit budget for the district, he said.
* Related…
* Franklin Hospital CEO: State owed $1.3M at end of ’12
* U. of Illinois looks to rely less on state support
* Officials still have hope for Dwight prison
* Quinn’s Bad-News Budget, With Deep Education Cuts, Has Justice Silver Lining
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Question(s) of the day
Friday, Mar 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’ve been thinking lately of expanding our use of the ScribbleLive app. We already use it to keep track of minute-by-minute spring session news and other Illinois-related stuff.
* But what about using it for debates? For instance, I’ve already talked to the NRA and a gun control group about appearing live right here on the blog.
Readers, for instance, could ask questions via ScribbleLive’s comment feature. The questions would be held in moderation until I approved them and then the debaters would provide responses, and then react to each other.
I was thinking maybe we could convince Rep. Tom Morrison (R-Palatine), who sponsored the Illinois Policy Institute’s pension reform plan, with somebody on the other side, like maybe freshman Rep. Mike Smiddy (D-Hillsdale) who won election last year without help from the House Democrats, but with a big boost from AFSCME.
We couldn’t do debates on session days because I wouldn’t have the time. But we could invite guests from opposing sides of a particular issue which was being discussed that day to comment live on the ScribbleLIve session post.
* Question One: Who would you like to see debate? Explain, please, and no snark.
* Question Two: What other things could we do with ScribbleLive here? Again, explain and no snark.
You can click here to see the app’s capabilities if you’d like, and click here to see other ideas on the company’s blog.
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Tone down the rhetoric and look at the facts
Friday, Mar 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Sun-Times…
Nine out of ten of the Chicago Public School students potentially affected by school closings this year are black, a Chicago Sun-Times analysis has found, a discovery one community activist called a “lawsuit waiting to happen.”
Of those 129 schools located mostly on the South and West sides, 117 are majority black. And 119 of them have a percentage of black students higher than thedistrict average. At the 129 schools on CPS CEO Barbara Byrd-Bennett’s list of schools that could be closed this year, 88 percent of the students are black.
Schools with at least 90 percent black students account for 103 of the 129. Just nine are majority Hispanic.
The racial breakdown of the schools that could be closed is not in line with the overall demographics of the district. Across the city, 41.7 percent of CPS students are African American, 8.8 percent are white and 44.1 percent are Hispanic. The rest are Asian, Native American or members of other racial groups.
* Will Caskey blew a gasket when he read that story. Caskey, who lives in the city and has a young child, was furious at the paper’s analysis.
First, Caskey points out that since Chicago is still largely racially segregated, any given area that changes population tends to do so within one race, for instance…
On September 30, 2000 the CPS racial survey found 226,600 black students (52 percent), 152,031 Hispanic students (35 percent) and 41,890 white students (9.6 percent). As of October 10, 2012, the same survey found 163,595 black students (40.5 percent), 180,274 Hispanic students (44.7 percent), and 36,415 white students (9 percent). That is to say, black enrollment declined by 63,005 (27.8 percent), white enrollment declined by 5,475 (13 percent) and Hispanic enrollment increased by 28,243 (18.5 percent). Overall enrollment declined by 34,157 (437,618 to 403,461).
* He continues…
(T)he Sun-Times’ conclusion (“The racial breakdown of the schools that could be closed is not in line with the overall demographics of the district.”) is nonsense. The closure criteria are not made in reference to the isolated enrollment in Chicago right now. They were made because population shifts left a lot of schools underutilized (and a lot of schools overcrowded). This distinction is, of course, lost on the Sun-Times, probably because crack journalism like looking at the U.S. Census web site is lost on them:
Indeed, the district claims the city has lost 145,000 children from 2000 to 2010, though school enrollment dropped by about 30,000 during the same decade. CPS cannot explain the disparity in the numbers.
Okay Sun Times, let me explain it. Per the 2010 census, there are 621,630 residents in Chicago under 18. Per the 2000 census, there were 844,298. That’s a decline of 222,668 residents under 18. Concurrently there was a CPS enrollment decline of 34,157. That means relative to change in total population under 18. CPS enrollment is actually doing great: in 2000 51.8 percent of residents under 18 were enrolled in CPS, whereas now 64.9 percent are. I know, math is hard. Maybe you should have paid more attention in school.
* The Sun-Times followed up today with a kinda/sorta walkback, presented as a he said/she said story…
Nine out of 10 Chicago Public School students potentially impacted by school closings are African-American because their neighborhoods suffered population losses, Mayor Rahm Emanuel said Thursday.
One day after a community activist branded the disproportionate impact on black students a “lawsuit waiting to happen,” Emanuel renewed his commitment to forge ahead with a politically explosive decision that Chicago has avoided for a decade.
“There has been a big change in the city over the last decade … and we need to make sure that our schools are reflective of the change in our city,” the mayor said.
“We have postponed this. It’s actually a postponement that’s adversely affected our children’s education. Now, we need to deal with it in a very sensitive way, in a compassionate way, but achieve the goal, like the longer school day, to give all our children a high-quality, valuable education so they can have a future that is worthy of those children.”
* In other Chicago school-related news, the UNO schools have agreed to allow a union. From a press release…
Chicago ACTS, UNO Announce Agreement Guaranteeing Charter Educators the Free Choice to Form a Union
Chicago—Today the Chicago Alliance of Charter School Teachers and Staff (Chicago ACTS) and the UNO charter organization announced an agreement that guarantees educators and staff at UNO schools the free choice to form a union. With 13 schools in Chicago, this agreement guarantees more than 300 educators the right to choose to unionize without fear of retaliation. More than 5,000 children attend UNO schools in Chicago.
“With this agreement, UNO teachers have the freedom to join with hundreds of other charter school teachers across Chicago who are using their collective voice to speak out for their profession and their students, said Chicago ACTS President Brian Harris. “Almost four years ago, my co-workers and I formed the first charter school teachers union in Chicago. We are united in the relentless pursuit of quality for our schools, and we are encouraged that UNO teachers now have the freedom to join with us to advocate on behalf of teachers, our students and our schools.”
More info here.
* Related…
* Emanuel regrets Quinn’s education budget cuts
* Editorial: Close schools over two years, not one
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* From Politico…
Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan spoke with several of the nation’s top progressive groups during a visit to Washington D.C. last week, further fueling expectations that the popular Democrat will run for governor in 2014.
Madigan is weighing a campaign for the state’s top office even though the Democratic incumbent, Gov. Pat Quinn, has said he plans to seek another term.
During a trip to the nation’s capital, Madigan discussed a possible campaign with strategists for the League of Conservation Voters, the prominent environmental group; and EMILY’s List, the group dedicated to electing Democratic women who support abortion rights, according to sources familiar with the conversations.
“She’s leaning heavily toward a run and was doing rounds to build relationships and gauge potential support,” one source said of Madigan.
* Phil Kadner, meanwhile, watched the governor’s budget address and is now completely fed up with Gov. Quinn…
Run, Lisa, run.
That was my reaction to Gov. Pat Quinn’s budget address on Wednesday.
It was a clear call for new leadership in Illinois, and Lisa Madigan, the state attorney general, ought to enter the race for governor.
Quinn is no leader. He is unable to rally public opinion. The Legislature repeatedly turns a deaf ear to his pleas for pension reform. He has no idea how to move the state forward.
Some newspaper editorial writers have written that Madigan should not run for office unless her father steps down as speaker of the House of Representatives. I think voters are capable of deciding for themselves if a father-daughter power combo bothers them.
With Quinn at about a 25 percent approval rating in some polls, the people of Illinois are desperate to hear a different kind of message from their governor.
Whether that’s Madigan or someone else makes no difference to me.
I just want to see as many qualified people as possible competing in next year’s gubernatorial election, and the attorney general is certainly one of those people. […]
Quinn used to think he had all the answers. It turns out, he didn’t even know the key question.
How do you lead Illinois?
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Greg Hinz on AG Madigan…
Another party source who would know says she’s begun making calls to major party “bundlers” — donors with large networks of friends. That’s more important now that Illinois finally has limits on the size of individual campaign donations. And I hear her forthcoming financial disclosure for the first quarter of the year will show her raking in quite a haul. […]
None of that is good for Mr. Daley, who let it be known a few weeks ago that he was seriously eying a race, but now is watching to let her make the first definitive move.
Sources close to Mr. Daley say he understands that his probability of winning the March 2014 Democratic primary would be pretty low in a three-way race with Ms. Madigan and incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn, who has said he’ll seek a new term.
As a result, Mr. Daley has told friends, it’s highly unlikely he will run if she does.
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Clergy warns lawmakers on gay marriage
Friday, Mar 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Upping the ante…
Some African-American clergy and conservative Catholics say they’ll ban Illinois lawmakers who vote for same-sex marriage from their churches.
About two dozen priests and pastors joined the Catholic Conference of Illinois to form a new religious coalition yesterday.
“We want to make sure that we a send a message to our elected officials that as a collective community and a collaborative, we will not allow you to speak in our churches, you will not be invited to our church when you’re running for office because we as a community are incensed,” said Bishop Lance Davis, senior pastor at a church in Dolton, who’s part of the group.
The measure is a part of a media campaign the coalition is planning to launch Friday. They’re going to 75 churches this weekend to ask people to contact lawmakers and urge them to vote against gay marriage. They also plan billboards, TV and radio ads.
Remember to keep a civil tongue in your head and also remember that there’s a First Amendment in this country and people are free to say what they want. No broadbrush attacks, please. Thanks.
* Nationally, though, things are moving away from them…
Support for gay marriage has ticked up over the last few months, particularly among Catholic voters, according to a new poll Friday.
Among Catholics, 54 percent back same-sex marriage, while 38 percent oppose it, the Quinnipiac University poll found. That’s a jump from December, when Catholic support for same-sex marriage was 49 percent to 43 percent. […]
Among all Americans, it’s a closer margin, with 47 percent supporting and 43 percent opposing. The pollsters noted that’s a dramatic reversal from their July 2008 survey, which found that 55 percent opposed same-sex marriage and 36 percent supported it. It’s also a slight rise in support since December, when Quinnipiac found 48 percent backed gay marriage and 46 percent opposed it.
* And here’s some info from an Illinois-based economic impact study conducted by the Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law…
— As many as 11,525 same-sex couples who live in Illinois — about half of the 23,049 in Illinois, according to the 2010 Census — would choose to marry. (The report did not include spending estimates for out-of-state same-sex couples who might travel to Illinois to marry.)
— The state’s wedding business would see an increase of $74 million, and an increase of $29 million would be seen in tourism expenditures by out-of-town guests over the same period.
— Total state and local tax revenue would rise by $8.5 million, including an estimated $1-2 million in local sales taxes. The first year would produce $5.4 million of the increase.
— The boost in wedding spending will generate about 281 new jobs.
Other findings include an expected 16 guests per same-sex marriage, each of whom would spend about $155 per day during their visit. This translates to 184,400 wedding guests in three years, spending a total of $28.6 million.
The report also determined that over the first three years, 5,472 couples now in civil unions would marry, but without an accompanying ceremony.
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Oberweis: You first
Friday, Mar 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Covering the General Assembly tackle pension reform these days is a lot like watching a bunch of people standing on the edge of a cliff, with everybody hoping somebody else will jump first. Sen. Jim Oberweis (R-Sugar Grove) is no exception…
The 25th District Senator said he is willing to work in a bipartisan manner to address Illinois’ budget crisis, but Gov. Quinn and Democrat legislative leaders first need to start working together.
“Not only do the Democrats have control of the Governorship, they have supermajorities in both the House and the Senate. The Governor must work with his leaders – with Mike Madigan and John Cullerton – to fix this problem,” Oberweis said. “And if they can’t come to an agreement, then it is time to let the rest of us come to the table with our ideas.
* Most House Republicans appear to be following Oberweis’ advice…
For the second week in a row, the House Thursday devoted a segment of its day to considering changes in state-funded pension systems. Two of the three amendments considered by the House failed by wide margins, just as four amendments did last week.
However, lawmakers voted 65-7 in favor of an amendment that would cap a state retiree’s pensionable salary at the highest allowed under Social Security — currently $113,700 a year.
“This would remedy those situations where teachers and administrators later in their career have their salaries inflated to a significant amount and that salary becomes onerous upon the system,” said Rep. Mike Zalewski, D-Chicago. […]
Two Republicans — David Harris of Arlington Heights and David McSweeney of Cary — voted in favor of the amendment. Rep. Sue Scherer, D-Decatur, a retired school teacher who received late-career salary hikes, voted against the amendment.
* Madigan’s response…
When asked what the House’s next move on pensions would be, Madigan told reporters, “Well, the next move would be for you to go ask the Republicans why they don’t participate in voting.
“You know, in America you get elected through a Legislature to vote. That’s the American system, right? So, you should go over there and ask them, ‘Why aren’t you voting?’”
* The HGOP response to MJM…
“We feel that this issue is far too important to try to piecemeal a bill together,” said Sarah Wojcicki Jimenez, a spokeswoman for Cross. She said Republicans instead prefer moving HB 3411 through the traditional legislative process.
* Back to the bill…
Supporters said the measure would save $632 million in fiscal year 2014 starting July 1, which is small compared with a system of state pensions that is $96.8 billion short of full funding. The Illinois system is 39 percent funded, compared with the 80 percent considered healthy.
The approval gave hope to some lawmakers that wider reforms can eventually be agreed to.
“I think it demonstrates that the process that we’re going through, we don’t have to be so cynical about it, it can get us to a solution,” said Democratic Representative Elaine Nekritz, a leader in pushing for pension changes.
* Related…
* 4 Myths About Public Pension Retirees
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Give it a go
Friday, Mar 8, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My Sun-Times column…
Before “fracking” and horizontal oil drilling was tried in North Dakota, the state was producing about 80,000 barrels of the sticky black stuff a day, not much more than Illinois.
Last December, North Dakota pumped out almost 800,000 barrels a day, making it the second-largest oil producer in the nation, ahead of Alaska.
Thanks to fracking, jobs are now so bountiful that the biggest problem is persuading qualified workers to move to the remote state.
North Dakota’s state government coffers are bursting with cash, and the governor wants to cut taxes and embark on a major infrastructure program for roads and schools, with plenty of money left over.
Fracking is legal in Illinois, but our regulations are ancient and nobody really knows if anybody is even doing it. The big companies say they’re waiting on new state regulations that are working their way through the General Assembly and new extraction fees, which have yet to be agreed to.
Some say that Illinois could be another North Dakota. We have gigantic shale deposits that have produced big results elsewhere. But not all shale deposits are equal. With our state’s notoriously bad luck, maybe nothing is actually there.
Then again, maybe there is something out there, and I think it’s worth a look.
I came to that conclusion even after watching the documentary “Gasland.” It’s a shocking film about how a reckless search for energy resources has hurt innocent people. A family in the movie can’t drink their own water because their well is so full of gas that they can literally light their tap water on fire. It’s a scary sight. Worse yet, nobody in the government wanted to do anything about it.
The movie has freaked people out all over the country. New York has banned fracking, which involves injecting fluids into the cracks of rock formations to force out gas and oil. The lower chamber in that state’s legislature just passed a bill to ban it for two more years, but the measure apparently faces an uphill climb in the Senate.
Illinois legislators, who can’t seem to get anything else done, found a way to bring the energy industry and environmentalists to the table and produce an agreement. The Sierra Club calls the proposed law the “strongest set of protections of any state in the country.” A representative with the Natural Resources Defense Council said the proposal will be “the strongest and most comprehensive law governing hydraulic fracturing — or ‘fracking’ — in the nation.”
There are some opponents, mainly some small groups in southern Illinois that don’t believe fracking can ever be done safely.
But this fracking proposal is immensely superior to anything in any other state. There’s actually a presumption of liability for contamination near fracking sites. So, if somebody’s tap water becomes flammable, they can more easily sue and recover damages.
There are mandated setbacks for population centers and water resources, some very toxic chemicals are banned, there are protections for the water supply during droughts and even regulations to help prevent fracking-induced earthquakes.
The list goes on. Strict waste storage rules, to stop the practice elsewhere of dumping waste into open ponds. Restrictions on venting of gas, which can cause smog. Public hearings, lots of testing, even citizen enforcement of the laws.
The next step is negotiating the extraction tax. The state can obviously use the money, so this is really important.
Maybe Illinois will finally do something right for a change, and maybe we’ll even get lucky and create a new industry here and lots of jobs. I think it’s definitely worth a shot.
* The AP is also running a story entitled “Illinois deal on fracking could be national model.” From the piece…
Michigan’s largest environmental coalition might be willing to take a cue from Illinois if lawmakers decide that fracking should be part of Michigan’s energy mix.
“We would love to see that kind of bipartisan cooperation,” said Hugh McDiarmid, spokesman for the Michigan Environmental Council. The Illinois bill “has a lot of good ideas and a lot of things … that mirror what we’re trying to achieve in Michigan” because stopping or banning fracking would be unrealistic. […]
California state Sen. Hannah-Beth Jackson said Illinois was able to negotiate many of the same protections she wants in her state, where energy companies are eying a shale formation near Santa Barbara that may have four times more oil than North Dakota. She said regulations proposed by the governor’s office were inadequate.
“It would be wonderful, frankly, if we could get everybody to sit down,” said Jackson, who introduced a bill to regulate fracking wastewater. “In California, there is the perception the companies are stonewalling and do not want to be subject to any oversight. I think if they are willing to sit down and talk, that would certainly be best way to do it.”
* Meanwhile…
The state Department of Employment Security says Illinois unemployment rose to 9 percent in January.
That was up from 8.7 percent in December and back to almost the 9.1 percent rate of January 2012.
Department Director Jay Rowell blamed the uneven recovery the state has experienced since the recession.
The number of unemployed people in the state rose by 4 percent to 594,800. The state added a relatively small 7,100 jobs in January.
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