* The Hill made the 17th CD its “Race of the Day” today. I agree, but with one caveat…
If there’s one race that could tell the true size of the expected Republican wave this fall, it may very well be Rep. Phil Hare’s reelection bid in Illinois’ 17th Congressional District.
To say that Democrats began the year not worrying about Hare’s reelection chances would be an understatement. The two-term congressman ran unopposed in 2008 and until earlier this month, Hare hadn’t run a TV ad since 2006.
But Republican Bobby Schilling is making a race of it in the 17th and the contest has quickly moved into tossup territory.
Hare is in the fight of his life, but the GOP hasn’t yet dumped any real money into this thing. Still, keep a close eye on this one.
* Democratic Congressman Bill Foster has a new TV ad. Rate it…
Script…
I’m Bill Foster and I approve this message.
Homeowner: My wife and I played by the rules, we paid our mortgage every month, but because of the housing crisis – our house is worth $98,000 less.
Narrator: Randy Hultgren’s company made millions selling high-risk mortgage products, fueling the housing crisis, and destroying home values.
Then using taxpayer bailout money, Hultgren’s company set up a Cayman Islands hedge fund and turned a fast profit buying back bad mortgages for pennies on the dollar.
Homeowner: Randy Hultgren might have profited, but I sure didn’t.
A bit wordy.
* Republican congressional candidate Adam Kinzinger plays the victim card in his new Internet promo video…
The Kinzinger video was posted to YouTube two days ago and it already has more than 13,000 views. It is chock full of distortions. He tries to make the claim that Halvorson’s campaign sponsored a rally which was also attended by one guy who brought a sign with a Hitler mustache superimposed on Kinzinger’s upper lip. By extension, therefore, Halvorson is responsible for that. Ridiculous.
We’ve been over this twice before. There’s no evidence whatsoever that Halvorson was in any way responsible for that doofus who brought the Hitler signs. To the contrary.
Which leaves us with the question: What’s worse, being portrayed as a Nazi by a lone goofball or smearing your opponent by claiming she was responsible for it? I would say it’s the latter. I’d also say Kinzinger was desperate, but he’s way ahead in the polls. There’s no reason to pull this shameful stunt. His campaign is out of control and the local media needs to weigh in on this. Soon.
* I’ve asked the Bob Dold campaign to explain an odd passage in last month’s edition of Conservative Magazine of Illinois, a publication I knew little about until it was publicized by the Dan Seals campaign last night. Check it out…
The mag’s highest rating is five stars. Dold gets three. So far, no response on why Dold’s campaign allegedly asked that it not be rated highly.
This would be par for the course for Dold, who appears to be running a two track campaign. In public, he’s a “moderate.” Under the media’s radar, he’s a social conservative. The local media has mostly played this off as a he said / he said dealio, but it appears to deserve a much closer look.
I’ll let you know if the Dold campaign ever answers my question.
…Adding… Here it is…
We told them Bob is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate, and that he is pro-choice.
* Way back in December of last year and then again on Tuesday, we discussed the candidacy of one Patrick John Ryan. He’s the alleged Republican who is running against House Speaker Michael Madigan, even though his voting record is solidly Democratic and he works for the city.
Kass tried to talk to the guy earlier this week, but ended up speaking with his parents…
It’s a nice house, with lovely flowers in bloom. I knocked at the door at about 7 a.m. His parents were very nice. And, I confess, I liked both of them at once.
His mom, Mary Ann Ryan, a nurse, was already outside, chatting to a neighbor, about the neighbor girl being invited to a homecoming dance.
“P.J.’s not here,” said his mom, Mary Ann. “He’s at work.”
* The Question: What would be an appropriate slogan for “Republican” Patrick John Ryan’s “campaign”? Snark heavily encouraged, of course.
The Green Party candidate for governor says Illinois should legalize and tax marijuana, but his opponents disagree.
Green candidate Rich Whitney says Illinois could bring in about $300 million a year by taxing marijuana.
I’m not sure how he got to his $300 million figure, but it’s probably close enough for government (or campaign) work. Apparently, 5.74 percent of Illinoisans used marijuana in the past month, according to this site. There are about 13 million people in Illinois, so the numbers work out to 746,200 folks. That’s a bit more than $30 per month per consumer. Not much at all. Of course, because marijuana is illegal, pot dealers don’t check identification. Not all of those users are adults. So the rate per consumer would be a bit higher.
During the 1890s and the early part of the 20th century, there was a powerful national campaign to abolish smoking that was no less intense than the drive for Prohibition.
A key reason the campaign ultimately fizzled out in the 1920s was the government’s need for tobacco tax revenues, especially after alcohol tax revenues dried up. The Republicans’ cuts in income taxes in the 1920s also increased the federal government’s dependence on tobacco tax revenues, which rose from 4 percent of federal receipts in 1920 to 11.2 percent in 1929. The onset of the Great Depression, the concomitant fall in income tax revenues, and the inelasticity of demand for cigarettes caused tobacco revenues to rise to 20.7 percent of all federal receipts by 1932.
In the end, revenue needs trumped sumptuary considerations in the cases of both alcohol and tobacco. This raises the interesting question of whether revenue considerations will drive reform of the laws against illegal drugs.
It should and it ought to. Adults ought to be able to choose what they put into their own bodies without being threatened with confinement in a steel cage with murderers and other mean, ugly, nasty people.
Either way, we ought to have this debate. It sure beats talking about nonsense like this…
The Democratic Governors Association is dubbing seven GOP gubernatorial nominees “Christine O’Donnell Republicans” in an attempt to portray them as outside the mainstream and unelectable.
In a conference call Wednesday, DGA Executive Director Nathan Daschle tagged Dan Maes in Colorado, Tom Emmer in Minnesota, Bill Brady in Illinois, Carl Paladino in New York, Nathan Deal in Georgia, Rick Scott in Florida and Paul LePage in Maine as the most extreme candidates gracing the top of ballots this fall.
The DGA spent $2 million trying to paint Brady as an extremist over the summer. It failed miserably.
* Back to the Greens and Rich Whitney. He has a new Internet promo video up that will bore you to tears…
Rahm just got rammed. Legendary feminist Gloria Steinem is not only shocked . . . shocked . . . shocked there aren’t more women running for Mayor Daley’s job, but she is NO fan of mayoral hopeful Rahm Emanuel.
• Plug ‘em: “I campaigned against him [Rahm] for Congress and I’d be happy to campaign against him for mayor,” said Steinem, who claims she disagrees with Emanuel on many issues relating to women.
• Press ‘em: Steinem, accompanied by actress/buddy Jennifer Beals, who is starring in the upcoming Chicago-based TV series “Ride Along,” was in town Wednesday promoting the Women’s Media Center, a vehicle to “positively impact the visibility of women in the media.”
The founder of Ms. Magazine was born in Toledo, Ohio. She’s never lived in Illinois, as far as I can tell. Yet, there she was on Chicago Tonight last night holding forth…
* Even so, Steinem is one of the only people who has publicly questioned why there is a dearth of female candidates for Chicago mayor. Maybe that’s why she’s getting so much press. She’s saying something that almost nobody in the city is saying. News needs to be “new” to be interesting, and whatever you think about her, she’s saying something different and, frankly, new.
* Meanwhile, speaking of the mayor’s race and women, Lisa Madigan is playing her usual game of Hamlet…
Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan on Wednesday refused to say she would complete her third term if she is re-elected in November, leaving the door open for a run for Chicago mayor.
Madigan, a Chicago Democrat, was asked repeatedly in a Tribune interview whether she would pledge to serve out her four-year term if re-elected. She declined to give a yes or no answer, instead talking about how much she enjoyed her current position.
“I want to serve as your attorney general. That is my goal,” Madigan said. […]
Told her answers leave open the possibility she could run for mayor, Madigan responded, “You are persistent and so am I.”
The only way to get media coverage in Chicago these days is to float your name for mayor. I’m surprised Pat Quinn hasn’t done it yet. [Just kidding… Kinda.]
* In other mayoral-related, female-related news, Mark Brown has a funny column today…
[Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr.] may be the first U.S. politician to use “social acquaintance” as a euphemism for woman-with-whom-I’m-suspected-of-having-an-affair.
I mean it. This is groundbreaking stuff. Think of all the major American politicians that have walked this road before him: Clinton, Edwards, Hart, just to name a few.
I made an electronic database search of all the instances in which the words “social acquaintance” appeared in any context in any English-speaking news organization of note in recent years, and while I couldn’t make it through every one, I found no articles involving embarrassed politicians explaining their relationship with a member of the opposite sex.
The closest I came was that “social acquaintance” seems to be the terminology favored by judges who are forced to explain why they’ve been hanging out with alleged mobsters.
I think Jackson used the word “social” in the same way it’s used in the phrase “social disease.” By using such an unusal phrase, he has forever associated himself with those two words, a bit like it used to be in the old days when there were no cures for social diseases. Think: “I misremembered it wrong.”
Whatever happened between Jackson and the “social acquaintance,” a hostess at Ozio Restaurant & Lounge in Washington, is, indeed, his family’s business. Unless he really did have his friend and campaign supporter pay to fly her to Chicago; then it’s likely the business of the House ethics committee.
This is the real problem for me. It would’ve been inexcusable to just publish a story about Jackson having a girlfriend unless there was a reason. Having your fundraiser pal fly her back and forth to Chicago is a big no-no for a congressman, who are ruled by a gift ban.
* And then there’s this interesting point from Mary Mitchell…
Nyak told the FBI that he paid for two airline trips for Huidobro, who lived in Washington, D.C., to come to Chicago.
That, of course, raises other questions.
For instance, why would a married man fly his “social acquaintance” to the city where his wife lives?
If the allegations are true, you’d have to wonder if Sandi Jackson actually lives in Washington rather than in the 7th Ward.
All signs point to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel running for mayor of Chicago.
Emanuel’s decision is all but made — he still has some family matters to consider — but if his trajectory holds, watch for him to step down from his White House perch sometime in October. It will be a quick transition for Emanuel — from dealing with an Afghanistan war to street repairs on Ardmore, Archer and Aberdeen.
It’s good to see Emanuel doing this, but I’m not sure he or anyone else can contain it…
With the potential of a mayoral race being divisive — reopening racial fault lines in the city — Davis said they talked about the kind of campaign they each wanted, “not to be designed to fracture the city, not to polarize the city but to have it be as harmonious as it could be.”
The rise suggests that jobs remain scarce and some companies are still cutting workers amid weak economic growth. Initial claims have fallen from a recent spike above a half-million last month. But they have been stuck above 450,000 for most of this year.
Students who took the ISAT, third graders through eighth graders last year, improved a bit. Overall student performance on the ISAT increased from 79.8 in 2009 to 80.9.
Fergus said that points to a bigger trend.
“We’re continuing to see gradual increases in student performance over time – that’s what we look for and that’s what we’re seeing,” she said.
* Teachers Union: Chicago Neighborhoods Need a “Marshall Plan”
Larger class sizes. Inexperienced teachers. Substitute teachers. Trimmed back art, music and after-school programs.
Those are the problems “crippling'’ many Chicago Public Schools and “cutting our students off at the knees,'’ despite the positive spin school officials have put on a financially challenging school year, Chicago Teachers Union president Karen Lewis told school board members Wednesday.
A new survey of CTU delegates at 146 schools - or 24 percent of the entire system - found that one out of three schools surveyed had substitute or “placeholder'’ teachers heading a classroom.
“I was there when Harold Washington came in,” she said. “They do tend to get rid of everybody. They want their own people, and they’re entitled to them. But I have a lot of young people with children, and they’re shell-shocked. They probably should be looking [for jobs], but all they’re doing is thinking of looking.”
Kirk and Giannoulias have now run within three points or less of each other in seven surveys since early June.
But a lot of voters still haven’t made up their minds. Just 56% of those who support Kirk say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Giannoulias voters say the same, along with 47% of those who support Jones.
Kirk has the backing of 80% of Illinois Republicans, while Giannoulias is supported by 71% of the state’s Democrats. The GOP candidate has a better than two-to-one lead among voters not affiliated with either party. Jones gets single-digit support from voters in both major parties and unaffiliateds.
If you’re wondering why Giannoulias is still talking to his base, that’s why.
* “I’m going to read you a short list of issues in the news. For each, please let me know which political party you trust more to handle that issue”…
Democrats lead on almost everything except their candidates.
* For all his other faults, Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. made a very valid point to the Chicago Defender…
[Jackson] said in order for Democrats in this state’s races to win, Quinn – who heads the ticket for the party – has to strengthen his campaign against his Republican challenger.
“If Governor Quinn and Sheila Simon cannot inspire turnout at the top of the ticket, then Alexi Giannoulias has problems, but so do David Miller and Robin Kelly in the state-wide races, and so do Debbie Halvorson and Dan Seals in congressional races,” … “And all the Democrats … should be telling Governor Quinn the same thing, and doing it publicly.”
This is the same thing I’ve been writing about for weeks in the subscriber section. Quinn is undoubtedly a drag on the ticket. How extreme of a drag he ends up being in November depends on whether he can somehow stabilize his campaign right now. Notice, I didn’t say “win.” I said “stabilize.” First things first.
Jackson adds…
“Pat Quinn has to come to our community to make up for what is going to be a tough road for them in other parts of the state. And the DNC and the party committees have to come to places like the South Side and the West Side and the South Suburbs too to help statewide candidates get across the finish line,” the congressman said. “And when they come to our community, it’s got to be with substance.”
That’s very true, especially with Scott Lee Cohen spreading money all over the West and South Sides. But Quinn is tanking so badly in the exurbs and Downstate that I’m not sure right now that he can make up the difference in Chicago/Cook.
* The Question: What one piece of campaign advice would you give both Pat Quinn and Bill Brady at this point in the campaign? Try not to be snarky, please. And explain fully. Thanks.
While insisting Illinois voters deserve “more honesty” from politicians, Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk repeatedly ducked questions or fell back on stock answers Tuesday when pressed about his military record, attacks on his opponent and other issues in one of the nation’s most-watched Senate races.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Kirk repeated his past apologies for exaggerating his accomplishments in the U.S. Naval Reserve, but would not comment in detail about the false claims or say why he made them. […]
Kirk refused to say whether he agrees that Alexi Giannoulias, his Democratic rival for the Senate seat once held by President Barack Obama, is a “failed mob banker” — a label used almost daily by Republican allies and his own campaign. […]
Kirk was so precise during the hourlong interview that he described Giannoulias’ actions with virtually the same phrase — “he lent a tremendous amount of money to mobsters and felons” — eight times. […]
Kirk also has suggested he came under fire while an observer on flights over Kosovo and Iraq, but he repeatedly refused Tuesday to discuss those incidents or even confirm whether they took place.
I get that Kirk’s past problems with the truth means he has to watch every word he says, but constantly avoiding questions by repeating the same phrase over and over again will drive reporters absolutely batty.
On the other hand, give him props for staying on message. What some candidates fail to realize is that just because a reporter asks you a question more than once doesn’t mean you have to answer it.
* In other news, the Daily Caller takes a look at Alexi Giannoulias’ campaign attempting to inform voters through the media that the Libertarian Senate candidate is the only pro-life, pro-gun person in the race…
Brian Gaines, an associate professor of political science at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a member of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, expressed doubts that either a Green or Libertarian candidate with little money and little name recognition could steal a significant number of votes to make a difference. “For Giannoulias, the risk of mentioning [Labno] at all is that it smacks of desperation,” he told The Daily Caller in an e-mail. “In his bid to ridicule Kirk, he could end up looking like a guy grasping for straws, wasting his breath on trivial points in the absence of a compelling message.”
He may be right if it’s only an earned media message, but since I first commented on this development I’ve been hearing about a planned paid media message via direct mail through an independent expenditure. We’ll have to see if it comes to fruition.
First lady Michelle Obama will visit Chicago on Oct. 13 to help raise money for state Democrats leading up to the Nov. 2 mid-term elections.
Obama will appear at a fundraiser for Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias and at a joint fundraiser for Reps. Bill Foster and Debbie Halvorson and House candidate Dan Seals, her office announced today.
Don’t expect the first lady to take sharp aim at the Republicans.
Instead, an official said, Mrs. Obama will talk about how the country is beginning to turn a corner in terms of strengthening the middle class. She will highlight insurance coverage for children with pre-existing conditions, protection from hidden credit-card fees, work-life balance and other topics, the official said.
That visit will be covered heavily, and, of course, it ought to raise a whole bunch of cash for paid media.
Is it any wonder that Quinn finds himself looking up in the polls at a right-wing slacker who looks the part of a pleasant businessman and promises to cut the state budget, even though he can’t actually explain how he plans to do it either?
Let me answer that. No, it’s entirely understandable, and it’s a shame, because Pat Quinn is a good man who wants to do right by the people of Illinois. But he continues to show he just doesn’t get what the world of state government looks like to those outside it.
I can’t argue with a single word in that. Same with this…
The only means the governor has at his disposal to force AFSCME to the bargaining table is the threat of layoffs.
The problem is that Quinn considers himself a friend of state workers and doesn’t really believe in layoffs, which means that when push comes to shove, he’s a pushover.
“The worst thing to do in a recession is lay people off,” he told the editorial board.
I can understand that. Hasn’t been much fun to watch my friends ushered out the door here in recent years, maybe the same where you work. But I sure as heck don’t believe in increasing the pay of state workers when the state is broke and its residents are taking real pay cuts — the kind that leave you with less money than you used to get, not just a scheduled raise that gets postponed.
But not this…
There was some nonsense Tuesday from Republican candidate Bill Brady that the deal is “scandalous” because Quinn agreed to it around the same time he got the union’s endorsement. That’s stupid because the real problem is that Quinn was always inclined to protect those workers and always going to get that endorsement.
Not necessarily. Quinn signed the pension reform bill and AFSCME was hugely upset. They’ve sat out governor’s races before, they could’ve done it again. Quinn wanted that endorsement badly, so he pushed hard for it.
Gov. Quinn said Tuesday that Sen. Bill Brady should apologize to first lady Michelle Obama for a wisecrack commentator Glenn Beck made at her expense Saturday night. […]
“Get away from my French fries, Mrs. Obama,” Beck warned. “First politician that comes up to me with a carrot stick, I’ve got a place for it. And it’s not in my tummy.” […]
“I thought it was important: I was disturbed on Saturday night to see Glenn Beck come to our state and disparage and mock the first lady of the United States of America,” Quinn said Tuesday following a private debate before the Commercial Club of Chicago. “Michelle Obama is my friend.” […]
Tuesday’s Commercial Club forum was closed to the press and public. But Brady spokeswoman Patty Schuh said when Quinn asked Brady to apologize for what Beck said, “Bill answered to the roar of the crowd. ‘You have to be kidding me.’”
Tying Brady to Beck in a news item is a good thing, and Mrs. Obama is still quite popular, but this is more than a little trivial.
“As Bill Foster launches one desperate and dishonest attack after another on Randy Hultgren, it’s important that voters are fully informed of Bill Foster’s out-of-touch, liberal record of voting with Nancy Pelosi 93% of the time, and his support for the Wall Street bailout, the so-called ‘stimulus,’ and the Foster-Pelosi government takeover of health care,” said campaign spokesman Gill Stevens. “This ad does just that, and reminds voters that Bill Foster is part of the problem in Washington, DC.”
* Hare asks opponent to give back donation: Democratic Congressman Phil Hare is asking his Republican opponent in the November election to give back a campaign contribution from a company cited for worker’s death in 2007. Hare made the request of Bobby Schilling during an appearance Monday at the Galesburg Labor Temple.
* State senate 31 candidates differ on employer performance reviews
Robert T. Saar, executive director of the DuPage County Election Commission, said the last day to register in DuPage County is Oct. 5, for the Nov. 2 General Election.
More than 80 percent of grade school students met expectations on the state reading, math and science exams they took last spring, up slightly from 79.8 percent a year ago and continuing the steady climb seen over the last five years.
In high school, 52.7 percent of students passed in math and 52.4 percent of students got over the bar in science — the highest pass rate recorded in the last seven years. But last year’s junior class posted lower scores in reading — 54 percent of students passed, down from 56.9 percent a year earlier.
The Los Angeles Times published individual teacher ratings recently–they were based on the progress kids showed on state tests—and they sparked a boycott and protests.
In Chicago, Huberman wants to release similar information.
Victor Safforld said he confessed to two murders only because he was tortured by former Chicago Police Cmdr. Jon Burge’s underlings.
And as the 39-year-old walked out a free man late Tuesday evening, he maintained his innocence, even though he pleaded guilty to one of the 1990 gang-related murders last spring.
Ald. Robert Fioretti (2nd) mentioned the 37-acre campus that formerly housed Michael Reese Hospital, the old Chicago Post Office and 67 acres of vacant land at Roosevelt and Clark once owned by convicted businessman and Rod Blagojevich fund-raiser Tony Rezko as possible sites for a permanent casino.
But, Fioretti is not prepared to wait for construction of a permanent casino to stop the parade of gamblers and tax revenues flowing to Indiana casinos.
That’s why he’s talking about turning the underutilized McCormick Place East building known as Lakeside Center into a temporary casino, assuming he can convince the General Assembly to go along.
The list includes paying for rising healthcare costs for jail inmates, increased costs of psychological and special public defender services through court administration and several new positions in the county’s information technology department.
Police continue to investigate what happened to an Evergreen Park High School graduate who died over the weekend in Carbondale, where he attends Southern Illinois University.
Dan Seidl, 21, died about 4 p.m. Sunday of brain trauma after he apparently fell from a roof earlier Sunday, SIU spokesman Rod Sievers said.
Sievers said Seidl was a journalism major in his sophomore year.
