“As Bill Foster launches one desperate and dishonest attack after another on Randy Hultgren, it’s important that voters are fully informed of Bill Foster’s out-of-touch, liberal record of voting with Nancy Pelosi 93% of the time, and his support for the Wall Street bailout, the so-called ‘stimulus,’ and the Foster-Pelosi government takeover of health care,” said campaign spokesman Gill Stevens. “This ad does just that, and reminds voters that Bill Foster is part of the problem in Washington, DC.”
* Hare asks opponent to give back donation: Democratic Congressman Phil Hare is asking his Republican opponent in the November election to give back a campaign contribution from a company cited for worker’s death in 2007. Hare made the request of Bobby Schilling during an appearance Monday at the Galesburg Labor Temple.
* State senate 31 candidates differ on employer performance reviews
I wish I could vote for Dold (not in his district) because of the rather disgusting way that Seals is trying to use Dold’s religion against him (and on the issues, I’m probably much closer to Seals).
Separately, it’s nice to see that Berrios has been so rattled by the BGA. Maybe their reports are one-sided because he really is that much worse than Claypool. I certainly think so.
The Hultgren ad is on message and more of what he should have been saying for the last 6 months. It’s mostly a question of if he has the money to make it work. B+
I’m all for hard hits on opponents, but Seals’ ad is pretty unfair. The “failing to pay taxes” and the strong suggestion that Dold is against abortion in the cases of rape and incest don’t pass the credibility test for me. But it sure can hurt Dold if unchecked. Potential effectiveness: A Factual: D.
Shocked that the Capt Fax failed to link to brother columnist, Kadner, on this exciting item…..BTW it is believed Kadner scoops Kassamoron on this item. So Brady might have outsmarted himself with the double barrel leak
What a shame.
GOP boss seeks meeting with Party’s candidate
Illinois’ Republican Party leader wants to meet his candidate in the 22nd House District. In fact, GOP chairman Pat Brady is so desperate to meet the guy that he issued a news release…..
Funny to see Rauschy — a former State Senator who wants back in — bashing career politicians and Springfield. He couldn’t make a career OUT of politics, so now he wants to go back to Springfield. What a hypocrite.
I think the Rauschenberger and Seals ads are both pretty stale feeling. Neither really does anything to set themselves apart from a muddy TV message. Have to give them both C’s at best.
Frank Lutz was on Fox last night and said there’s a real chance the GOP could win control of the Illinois legislature. Haven’t heard anyone suggest this before. Is it a possibility?
The Rauschenberger Ad is pretty effective. I think Steve speaks to his strengths as a budget expert and hopefully will add some sanity to the debate. Heaven knows whoever is elected Governor will need some expertise and Rauschenberger brings some of that to the Senate. I hope he wins.
No. The key words here are “Frank Lutz” and “Fox News.” So therefore, it’s only possible in his mind, on that station. In no other reality is it remotely possible. You can bet the mortgage payment on that my friend.
Lutz is an often wrong GOP pollster/consultant. He doesn’t know beans about Illinois legislative races. It’s wishful thinking on his part and Fox News exists to give the Frank Lutzes of the world a forum to spew nonsense like this.
47th, I agree that Luntz doesn’t know beans about Illinois politics. However, I wouldn’t totally rule out a wave effect in the Illinois House if I were you.
I like the Seals ad but am confused about its arrangement. Dold failed to pay his FICA taxes, and he also wants to wreck Social Security. These are presented as separate issues. I would expect them to be tied, aka Dold wants to privatize Social Security, and even worse he failed to pay his Social Security taxes.
Having said that it uses diverse hits across policy and personal and grabs attention.
the seals quotes come from tribune editorials where they did NOT endorse him.
the ad is what happens when you underachieve in your fundraising and have no money and don’t know what to do-you throw every attack and message (abortion,jobs, fiscal responsibility, ethics) into one mess and hope something sticks.
Linke many, I don’t hold much respect for Frank Luntz’s polling expertise. He is, however, the man to go to for effectiveness of campaign advertisement. Always respect his work in this area, and discount his prognostications.
===However, I wouldn’t totally rule out a wave effect in the Illinois House if I were you.===
Lol. That’s why I’d bet the mortgage payment, not the entire house.
I was in the trenches in 1994 so I’ve been on the receiving end of a wave election before. One big difference between these two is that few of us saw it coming back then, and those that did will never forget it. Because of that experience, MJM and others with long memories are leaving nothing to chance. Still and all, it won’t be enough if Democrats stay home like they did in 1994.
If voting were mandatory, elections would cost a fraction of what they do today and Democrats would win alot more races than they lose.
Think about the places where that is true. Would you want to live in those countries?
Very good point on 1994, the wave was only predicted by outliers until October, when people began to realize voter dissatisfaction with HilaryCare and the Democrat Congress. This year, people do see it coming. But I believe that it is extremely possible that the pros have UNDERESTIMATED voter anger.
There are many reasons for this, one being that most of the inside-baseball pros still don’t fully understand the depth of voter anger. Moves like yesterday’s attempt to add illegal immigration partial amnesty and DADT to the defense appropriations bill are seen for exactly what they are, pure politics. In ‘94, the word got around relatively slowly, only the true techies were tuned into the interwebtubes, where now it is ubiquitous. Politically, I cannot believe the Dems think that the feeble attempt to shore up the base isn’t overwhelmed by the impact on the Independents.
The fact that there are now many means for information dissemination, also allows those same means to be used for organization. One Tea Party I know started 3 months ago with 10 people in a room. A month later, there were 50, and the month after that 150. The next meeting is at a banquet hall at a golf course, having overgrown the back room of the bar. Multiply this enthusiasm by the number of such groups across the US and you can see what I’m getting at.
The questions have also changed at local Tea Party events. They have evolved from the “Glenn Beck” theoretical arguments to, “what are we going to do now, until the election, and beyond.” They are walking precincts, manning call centers, registering voters, and all kinds of grass roots efforts that are invisible to the insider, and the lame stream media.
Believe it or not, while the Tea Party was popularized in Illinois, we are actually lagging in Tea Party efforts to date. We don’t see what is going on across the US, where Tea Parties are even more energized than here. You see the wave coming. You are brighter than most politicians on both the left and right who think the voter frustration can’t be too big a deal, polling notwithstanding.
But I see something more. I see the wave as a possible tsunami. It is hitting Illinois late, but it still may hit in the next 40 days. If it does, there is a definite chance that one of the houses in the GA flips.
===Think about the places where that is true. Would you want to live in those countries?===
I hear Australia is kind of nice. They speak English there too, and today is the first day of Spring. G’day mate.
Athenian democracy held that it was every citizen’s duty to participate. Call me old school, but I’d love to live in a country that had a 90% turnout rate.
==the ad is what happens when you underachieve in your fundraising and have no money==
Granted Seals has had a pretty atrocious burn rate, but explain to me how his fundraising lackluster (at least until we see Q3 reports)?
He didn’t beat Dold in Q2, but I think that 550k was the second highest total by a non-incumbent. In every race I’ve fundraised for that would be a pretty solid haul for Q2.
Hultgren’s ad is a good response to Fosters…but Foster still has the money advantage. Hultgren has an advantage on the topic (taxes), though, so it was wise for him to keep the battleground on those issues. I give the ad a B by itself, but an A for keeping the focus on jobs/taxes, and forcing Foster to keep spending money on issues he doesn’t have the edge over (or healthy environment in).
Seals ad was very solid from a production angle: B+. However, I think he tried to do too much, and Dold has already hit back on abortion, since Seals is completely misrepresenting Dold’s position. This ad has a high possibility of blowback, so the rating is debatable.
I always think of voting as a duty, but also a choice. If you are happy with the status quo, you are indeed voting by not voting. If you want to change the way things are, vote. Your choice. The only law I’d make is if you don’t vote, you can’t whine afterwards.
From time to time the constituents of the 10th district get mocked (some is good-natured, some not so much) from folks here on Cap Fax. You know what I am referring to: The horrible 10th is “rich”, “elitist”, “disconnected from the common guy”, etc. But very few of our resident analysts ever suggest that people living in the 10th are clueless, uneducated, unaware of the actual issues, or politically naive. That’s likely because they know that most voters in the 10th are definitely not those things.
This is why Seals’ ad is so off- target for any real effectiveness in the 10th. The seedy allegations, stretches of logic, and spin on Dold are so blatantly obvious as to cause even Seals’ strongest supporters to be kind of embarrassed about the intellectually weak nature and form of this particular ad–and therefore what it suggests about Seals himself.
For its relevance, impact, and ability to win Seals new voters in the 10th—this ad gets a C. And that’s being generous.
The 10th Dems ended up with Seals because Julie Hamos never ventured further north than Lake Cook Road and Seals superior name ID.
The 10th GOP ended up with Dold because Coulson was a horrible campaigner with the voting record of a liberal Democrat. Dold outworked her and solidified the small but active right wing base up there.
I grew up in the core of the old 14th and 15th Congressionals — some old Fox River Valley towns plus a lot of corn and beans — and that mostly meant GOP names like Erlenborn, Arends, Ewing, Grotberg, Hastert, etc.
The only other Dem besides Foster to win in the area since the Civil War was Tim Hall — and that was in 1974, when he would have won if his name was Gus Hall.
I think Seals ad will backfire. Dold has spoken with just about the entire pro-choice Northshore, they know where is his position on abortion i.e. moderately pro-choice. That Seals is calling Dold pro-life will help in the western parts of the District. This ad has backfire written all over it.
Not sure why Seals thinks the reference to pro-life radicalism will work… Dold is clearly pro-choice, with “sensible conditions”. And the non-payment of payroll taxes accusation is ridiculous. I’m an independent contractor and I know that’s my responsibility to pay. - same case with Dold. Makes Seals look bad….like he’s really reaching.
- Simply Aghast - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:06 am:
I wish I could vote for Dold (not in his district) because of the rather disgusting way that Seals is trying to use Dold’s religion against him (and on the issues, I’m probably much closer to Seals).
Separately, it’s nice to see that Berrios has been so rattled by the BGA. Maybe their reports are one-sided because he really is that much worse than Claypool. I certainly think so.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:08 am:
I am surprised that the following is not in each and every Republican congressional ad:
“(Insert Democrat Name Here)’s first vote in Congress will be to elect Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.”
Hultgren almost says it, but not quite.
- ric831 - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:12 am:
The Hultgren ad is on message and more of what he should have been saying for the last 6 months. It’s mostly a question of if he has the money to make it work. B+
I’m all for hard hits on opponents, but Seals’ ad is pretty unfair. The “failing to pay taxes” and the strong suggestion that Dold is against abortion in the cases of rape and incest don’t pass the credibility test for me. But it sure can hurt Dold if unchecked. Potential effectiveness: A Factual: D.
- CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:12 am:
Shocked that the Capt Fax failed to link to brother columnist, Kadner, on this exciting item…..BTW it is believed Kadner scoops Kassamoron on this item. So Brady might have outsmarted himself with the double barrel leak
What a shame.
GOP boss seeks meeting with Party’s candidate
Illinois’ Republican Party leader wants to meet his candidate in the 22nd House District. In fact, GOP chairman Pat Brady is so desperate to meet the guy that he issued a news release…..
- Whatever - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:12 am:
Funny to see Rauschy — a former State Senator who wants back in — bashing career politicians and Springfield. He couldn’t make a career OUT of politics, so now he wants to go back to Springfield. What a hypocrite.
- A.B. - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:14 am:
I think the Rauschenberger and Seals ads are both pretty stale feeling. Neither really does anything to set themselves apart from a muddy TV message. Have to give them both C’s at best.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:19 am:
meanwhile, in Jews did what?…….Robert Reich was on
the Bill Maher HBO show….after sundown on Friday!
hey, Dan Seals, stop it, you look foolish.
- Dirt Digger - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:19 am:
Why does the Hultgren ad cite a Heritage Foundation paper for a vote and not the, you know, vote itself?
I’m assuming they’re talking about cap and trade? Or something?
It’s almost like they had an intern look at google for half an hour and ran with the results.
- J605 - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:22 am:
Frank Lutz was on Fox last night and said there’s a real chance the GOP could win control of the Illinois legislature. Haven’t heard anyone suggest this before. Is it a possibility?
- downstate hack - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:25 am:
The Rauschenberger Ad is pretty effective. I think Steve speaks to his strengths as a budget expert and hopefully will add some sanity to the debate. Heaven knows whoever is elected Governor will need some expertise and Rauschenberger brings some of that to the Senate. I hope he wins.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:27 am:
===Is it a possibility?===
No. The key words here are “Frank Lutz” and “Fox News.” So therefore, it’s only possible in his mind, on that station. In no other reality is it remotely possible. You can bet the mortgage payment on that my friend.
Lutz is an often wrong GOP pollster/consultant. He doesn’t know beans about Illinois legislative races. It’s wishful thinking on his part and Fox News exists to give the Frank Lutzes of the world a forum to spew nonsense like this.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:29 am:
47th, I agree that Luntz doesn’t know beans about Illinois politics. However, I wouldn’t totally rule out a wave effect in the Illinois House if I were you.
- Dirt Digger - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:32 am:
I like the Seals ad but am confused about its arrangement. Dold failed to pay his FICA taxes, and he also wants to wreck Social Security. These are presented as separate issues. I would expect them to be tied, aka Dold wants to privatize Social Security, and even worse he failed to pay his Social Security taxes.
Having said that it uses diverse hits across policy and personal and grabs attention.
- shore - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 12:18 pm:
the seals quotes come from tribune editorials where they did NOT endorse him.
the ad is what happens when you underachieve in your fundraising and have no money and don’t know what to do-you throw every attack and message (abortion,jobs, fiscal responsibility, ethics) into one mess and hope something sticks.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 12:21 pm:
Linke many, I don’t hold much respect for Frank Luntz’s polling expertise. He is, however, the man to go to for effectiveness of campaign advertisement. Always respect his work in this area, and discount his prognostications.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 12:24 pm:
===However, I wouldn’t totally rule out a wave effect in the Illinois House if I were you.===
Lol. That’s why I’d bet the mortgage payment, not the entire house.
I was in the trenches in 1994 so I’ve been on the receiving end of a wave election before. One big difference between these two is that few of us saw it coming back then, and those that did will never forget it. Because of that experience, MJM and others with long memories are leaving nothing to chance. Still and all, it won’t be enough if Democrats stay home like they did in 1994.
If voting were mandatory, elections would cost a fraction of what they do today and Democrats would win alot more races than they lose.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 12:49 pm:
47th Ward,
A couple of comments,
“If voting were mandatory…”
Think about the places where that is true. Would you want to live in those countries?
Very good point on 1994, the wave was only predicted by outliers until October, when people began to realize voter dissatisfaction with HilaryCare and the Democrat Congress. This year, people do see it coming. But I believe that it is extremely possible that the pros have UNDERESTIMATED voter anger.
There are many reasons for this, one being that most of the inside-baseball pros still don’t fully understand the depth of voter anger. Moves like yesterday’s attempt to add illegal immigration partial amnesty and DADT to the defense appropriations bill are seen for exactly what they are, pure politics. In ‘94, the word got around relatively slowly, only the true techies were tuned into the interwebtubes, where now it is ubiquitous. Politically, I cannot believe the Dems think that the feeble attempt to shore up the base isn’t overwhelmed by the impact on the Independents.
The fact that there are now many means for information dissemination, also allows those same means to be used for organization. One Tea Party I know started 3 months ago with 10 people in a room. A month later, there were 50, and the month after that 150. The next meeting is at a banquet hall at a golf course, having overgrown the back room of the bar. Multiply this enthusiasm by the number of such groups across the US and you can see what I’m getting at.
The questions have also changed at local Tea Party events. They have evolved from the “Glenn Beck” theoretical arguments to, “what are we going to do now, until the election, and beyond.” They are walking precincts, manning call centers, registering voters, and all kinds of grass roots efforts that are invisible to the insider, and the lame stream media.
Believe it or not, while the Tea Party was popularized in Illinois, we are actually lagging in Tea Party efforts to date. We don’t see what is going on across the US, where Tea Parties are even more energized than here. You see the wave coming. You are brighter than most politicians on both the left and right who think the voter frustration can’t be too big a deal, polling notwithstanding.
But I see something more. I see the wave as a possible tsunami. It is hitting Illinois late, but it still may hit in the next 40 days. If it does, there is a definite chance that one of the houses in the GA flips.
- 47th Ward - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 12:57 pm:
===Think about the places where that is true. Would you want to live in those countries?===
I hear Australia is kind of nice. They speak English there too, and today is the first day of Spring. G’day mate.
Athenian democracy held that it was every citizen’s duty to participate. Call me old school, but I’d love to live in a country that had a 90% turnout rate.
- chuddery - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 12:59 pm:
==the ad is what happens when you underachieve in your fundraising and have no money==
Granted Seals has had a pretty atrocious burn rate, but explain to me how his fundraising lackluster (at least until we see Q3 reports)?
He didn’t beat Dold in Q2, but I think that 550k was the second highest total by a non-incumbent. In every race I’ve fundraised for that would be a pretty solid haul for Q2.
- Liandro - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 1:04 pm:
Hultgren’s ad is a good response to Fosters…but Foster still has the money advantage. Hultgren has an advantage on the topic (taxes), though, so it was wise for him to keep the battleground on those issues. I give the ad a B by itself, but an A for keeping the focus on jobs/taxes, and forcing Foster to keep spending money on issues he doesn’t have the edge over (or healthy environment in).
Seals ad was very solid from a production angle: B+. However, I think he tried to do too much, and Dold has already hit back on abortion, since Seals is completely misrepresenting Dold’s position. This ad has a high possibility of blowback, so the rating is debatable.
- siriusly - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 1:17 pm:
Hultrgen’s ad says “tea party! I’m your guy” without saying it - but to a common sense voter like myself, it is somewhat disjointed
Seals ad is good, much better than his Tribune editorial board debate where Dold pantsed him.
Rauschy’s ad is good, reminds people why they like him.
I’m going with my original predictions for all three races:
Hultgren by a hair.
Rauschy by 5%
Dold by a hair.
- Pleasantly Plump - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 1:18 pm:
When I heard that Dold was being supported by ultra right winger Penny Pullen in the primary over Coulson I knew it would come back to haunt him.
- Cincinnatus - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 1:19 pm:
47th,
I always think of voting as a duty, but also a choice. If you are happy with the status quo, you are indeed voting by not voting. If you want to change the way things are, vote. Your choice. The only law I’d make is if you don’t vote, you can’t whine afterwards.
- Responsa - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 2:00 pm:
From time to time the constituents of the 10th district get mocked (some is good-natured, some not so much) from folks here on Cap Fax. You know what I am referring to: The horrible 10th is “rich”, “elitist”, “disconnected from the common guy”, etc. But very few of our resident analysts ever suggest that people living in the 10th are clueless, uneducated, unaware of the actual issues, or politically naive. That’s likely because they know that most voters in the 10th are definitely not those things.
This is why Seals’ ad is so off- target for any real effectiveness in the 10th. The seedy allegations, stretches of logic, and spin on Dold are so blatantly obvious as to cause even Seals’ strongest supporters to be kind of embarrassed about the intellectually weak nature and form of this particular ad–and therefore what it suggests about Seals himself.
For its relevance, impact, and ability to win Seals new voters in the 10th—this ad gets a C. And that’s being generous.
- Xgman - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 2:33 pm:
How did a well-educated District, with so many very accomplished people, end up with Seals v. Dold for a Congressional seat?
- Pleasantly Plump - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 3:16 pm:
The 10th Dems ended up with Seals because Julie Hamos never ventured further north than Lake Cook Road and Seals superior name ID.
The 10th GOP ended up with Dold because Coulson was a horrible campaigner with the voting record of a liberal Democrat. Dold outworked her and solidified the small but active right wing base up there.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 5:59 pm:
I grew up in the core of the old 14th and 15th Congressionals — some old Fox River Valley towns plus a lot of corn and beans — and that mostly meant GOP names like Erlenborn, Arends, Ewing, Grotberg, Hastert, etc.
The only other Dem besides Foster to win in the area since the Civil War was Tim Hall — and that was in 1974, when he would have won if his name was Gus Hall.
- Dirt Digger - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 8:08 pm:
Pleasantly Plump that glib response is as obese as your name indicates. No, more so. Morbidly so.
Yes, truly Hamos lost by 954 votes because she did not enter Lake County. And Coulson obviously had a record to the left of Hamos, while we’re at it.
That is not at all an absurd and smug fantasy from someone who has no idea what he is talking about.
- sleet - Wednesday, Sep 22, 10 @ 11:50 pm:
I think Seals ad will backfire. Dold has spoken with just about the entire pro-choice Northshore, they know where is his position on abortion i.e. moderately pro-choice. That Seals is calling Dold pro-life will help in the western parts of the District. This ad has backfire written all over it.
- Clear POV - Thursday, Sep 23, 10 @ 6:13 pm:
Not sure why Seals thinks the reference to pro-life radicalism will work… Dold is clearly pro-choice, with “sensible conditions”. And the non-payment of payroll taxes accusation is ridiculous. I’m an independent contractor and I know that’s my responsibility to pay. - same case with Dold. Makes Seals look bad….like he’s really reaching.