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Generic congressional ballot not great for Dems - Halvorson has campaign manager - Obama’s no big impact

Friday, Aug 20, 2010

* Public Policy Polling took a look at the generic congressional ballot in Illinois

If the election for Congress was today, would you vote for a Democrat or a Republican?
46% Democrat
40% Republican
14% Undecided

Even though the Democrats are ahead, that’s a bit misleading. It isn’t good news. The pollster explains

In Illinois Democrats lead the generic Congressional ballot by a 46-40 margin. That may not be terribly reassuring though given how much the party runs up the score in a small number of districts. Six of Illinois’ districts voted for President Obama at a 70% rate or higher in 2008.

…the 6 point generic ballot lead for Democrats in Illinois exceeds the 2 point lead we found for Alexi Giannoulias. That may give you a better idea of the shape Democrats would be in that race if they’d chosen a nominee with less baggage.

What that means is a whole bunch of targeted Democrats are in trouble.

* Speaking of targeted Democratic congresscritters, Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson did have a replacement in mind when she ousted her campaign manager. She’s bringing in Julie Merz

“The Halvorson camp is talking with Julie Merz about taking over as campaign manager, Vanderbilt said. Merz’s resume includes being campaign manager for U.S. Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah) and U.S. Rep. Dennis Moore (D-Kan.), both of whom are members of the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate to conservative Democrats committed to fiscal responsibility and government accountability. She also worked on former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley’s (D-N.J.) presidential campaign in 2000.”

They’re more than just talking about it. I’m told it’s a done deal.

* Back to PPP’s poll results

Illinois voters say they would be negatively influenced if a candidate was endorsed by Barack Obama. And if his support isn’t an asset in his home state it’s hard to imagine where it is.

40% of voters in the state say they’d be less likely to support an Obama endorsed candidate to only 26% who say it would be an asset. The reality at this point is that Obama turns Republican voters off to a much greater extent than he excites Democrats. That’s reflected in the fact that 83% of Republicans say an Obama endorsement would be a negative with them while only 49% of Democrats say it would be a positive. Independents also respond negatively by a 38/19 margin.

The numbers on an Obama endorsement are perhaps more relevant with undecided voters. Among those who have not yet made up their minds in the Senate race 21% say an Obama endorsement would resonate positively with them while 33% say it would be a turnoff.

The full results are here. According to PPP, 24 percent of Illinois voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sarah Palin, while 52 percent would be less likely.

* And

In Illinois Durbin is the favorite politician of 41% of voters in the state, followed by Pat Quinn at 10%, and Roland Burris at 6%. Like Pennsylvania the lack of Republicans in major offices in Illinois leaves 42% of voters saying no opinion. Durbin’s tops among Democrats, 60-11 over Quinn, independents, 40-8 over Quinn, and Republicans, 17-12 over Quinn.

* Campaign roundup…

* Obama unlikely to sway many voters in Senate race, poll shows

* Daily Herald: Hitting the campaign trail head-on

* Retired generals disappointed over Kirk’s no-show at meeting

* Senate, governor candidates to speak in B-N

* Quinn says tax hike plan honest, if not popular, and will preserve schools

* Quinn Campaign Wants 7 Debates With GOP’s Brady

* Pantagraph: Brady, others need to give voters specifics

* Why Did SEIU Give $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association?

* Chamber Backs Kinzinger Over Incumbent Halvorson In Illinois

* Rose: The cutback cuts back

* State owes $2.2 billion to feds for unemployment benefits

* ACLU sues to block law making it illegal to record cops

* ACLU challenges Illinois eavesdropping act

* New health insurance plan for the uninsured launches in Illinois

* Illinois to enroll uninsured in new high-risk pool

* State, feds moving to require cleanup of Chicago River for recreation

* Madigan: $12.7 mil. netted in gas tax investigation

* Madigan Charges 6 Gas Station Owners With Tax Evasion

* Appraisals find Thomson Prison worth nearly $220 mil.

- Posted by Rich Miller   17 Comments      


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