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Poll: 66 percent say do special election; GOP candidate news; Daley reacts to issue

Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new poll commissioned by the Illinois Republican Party finds strong support for a special election…

Two-thirds (66%) of the electorate favors the state legislature passing a new law requiring a special election to fill Barack Obama’s unexpired term as US Senator rather than letting the Governor pick the next US Senator. Only 26% oppose a special election.

This large majority support for a special election is strongest among Republicans (74%) but is also strong among Democrats (64%) and Independents (65%). In the collar counties and downstate, the support for a special election is huge (71% and 70% respectively).

* And this is what I’ve been talking about when I say that anyone with close or even not-so-close ties to Blagojevich is severely tainted in voters’ minds…

70% of voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate for office in Illinois who supported or endorsed Rod Blagojevich’s reelection for Governor in 2006 even though he was already under investigation for 3-years.

The “less likely to vote” result is strongest among Republicans (82%) but is also strong among Democrats (66%), Independents (66%), and voters in Cook County (65%), City of Chicago (65%) and the collar counties (76%). Clearly, Democrats who are tied to Blagojevich are vulnerable.

* More…

An overwhelming majority (79%) believes things in Illinois are headed off on the wrong track. Only 14% thinks things are going in the right direction. This very strong negative sentiment cuts across party lines.

Regardless of party affiliation, most Illinois voters (88%) have an unfavorable opinion of Rod Blagojevich. Only 8% has a favorable opinion of him.

* Methodology…

This Illinois statewide survey of 600 likely voters was conducted on December 15, 2008 by McLaughlin & Associates. All interviews were conducted by professional interviewers via telephone.

* Click the pic for a better look at the internals…

* We also have some info on a couple of potential GOP gubernatorial candidates. From Crain’s…

The Illinois Chamber of Commerce annouced that it has granted a leave of absence to its president, Doug Whitley, so he can “pursue personal goals, perhaps including a future political career.” The leave takes effect on Jan. 1 and comes after months in which Mr. Whitley was said to be testing the gubernatorial waters.

* Also from Crain’s…

U.S. Housing Secretary Steven Preston, who’s mulling a run for governor of Illinois in 2010, effectively makes his debut speech as a candidate for the GOP nomination Tuesday.

In the wake of Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s arrest and criminal charges last week, Mr. Preston revised a long-scheduled speech on housing issues in Chicago to focus on “leadership, accountability and transparency in government.” […]

“I’ve chatted with a couple of people about the needs of the state,” said Mr. Preston, a native of Janesville, Wis., who got his degree in political science at Northwestern University and considered a career in public service before getting into banking and moving up the corporate ladder. “Anyone who runs has to do a lot of soul-searching.”

*** UPDATE *** Mayor Daley reacts…

Republicans have accused Democrats of opposing a special election because they’re afraid an anti-Blagojevich backlash could pave the way for a GOP candidate to take Barack Obama’s seat in the U.S. Senate.

But, Daley denied the motive is politics.

“You cannot, because an individual does something wrong, change everything dealing with that office. You only have less than two years [until the next election]. It’s about thirty-to-fifty million dollars. That’s a lot of money,” Daley said.

“Whoever becomes the governor — if the lieutenant governor comes in — then, he has the responsibility [to appoint the next senator]. That’s the responsibility of the governor. If [Gov. David] Paterson can do it in New York, why cannot they do it here?”

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY: This just in… New Senate plan? *** White responds *** Just a resolution today? *** Withdrawn ***

Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Special election foiled by House Dems

Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Heartening news…

Secretary of State Jesse White said Monday he would block any appointment Gov. Rod Blagojevich’s makes for the state’s empty U.S. Senate seat, should the governor make one.

“I will not accept that nomination,” White said. “I would block it.”

Blagojevich has been urged by a chorus of Illinois officials not to make the pick after being arrested on federal corruption charges last week.

White would have to sign off on Blagojevich’s choice, but it has been unclear whether his role was simply a matter of handling paperwork.

* The headline on today’s Drudge Report was: “Illinois Democrats Let Blago Retain Senate Appointment.” Oof. Here’s the story…

Democrats in the Illinois House of Representatives postponed stripping Governor Rod Blagojevich’s power to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama that prosecutors say Blagojevich tried to sell. […]

Republicans said Democrats, who hold a 67-51 majority in the chamber, seek to avoid a loss of the seat to the GOP in a special election.

“Shame on you,” Representative William Black, deputy leader of Republicans in the House, shouted during a debate in the state capitol building in Springfield. “We had an opportunity to limit the power of this governor and you refused.” […]

“It’s extremely disappointing that Democratic leaders in Illinois are ignoring bipartisan calls for a special election,” Robert Duncan, chairman of the Republican National Committee, said in a statement distributed on PRNewswire.

* More GOP react…

“Tonight the world has seen up close the hypocrisy of Illinois politics,” decried Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andy McKenna. “The people of Illinois deserve better.”

* There are fewer and fewer “bipartisan calls for a special election,” particularly from Illinois’ county clerks, who would have to run (and pay for) the thing…

Election officials statewide say they don’t have the money to pay for a special election that could be held to fill President-elect Barack Obama’s vacant U.S. Senate seat. […]

Officials have floated statewide special election cost projections between $30 million and $50 million - running individual counties anywhere from tens of thousand of dollars to as much as $8 million in Cook County’s Chicago suburbs. Chicago’s expenses could hit $16 million.

Clerks say they don’t have that money in their budgets. “We just hope the Legislature considers the additional expenses,” said Stacey Kern, director of the Sangamon County election office in Springfield. “It’s going to cost us. Hopefully they’ll do right the thing and find some funds for us.”

County Clerk Joe Aiello estimated a special election would cost Sangamon $300,000 - a huge burden for a county that recently offered employees voluntary severance packages and is looking to cut more expenses. Aiello said the county could tap its general fund, but that likely would mean cuts elsewhere.

* Back to the Repubs…

Republicans say a special election would erase the stain that Blagojevich has left on the Senate appointment in the wake of the allegations against him.

“I think the people’s trust in the state of Illinois has been shattered,” said state Rep. Dan Brady, R-Bloomington. […]

“The best disinfectant in a democracy is the people,” said state Rep. Roger Eddy, R-Hutsonville.

Except “the people” elected George Ryan over and over again (lt. governor, secretary of state and governor) and elected Rod Blagojevich governor twice. But I see the point.

* A national pundit sucks his thumb…

Quinn might logically choose Lisa Madigan, the state’s popular attorney general. But there’s a problem there, too. Knowledgeable Illinois Democrats say that Madigan would vastly prefer to be governor, a job her dad, state House Speaker Michael Madigan, would also like her to get. Yet if Quinn were to take over from Blagojevich, he might well build up his own popularity and thus block Lisa Madigan’s ascension to the governorship.

* And Obama is staying mum…

Obama has not said whether he supports a special election or an appointment from Quinn should Blagojevich step down or be removed from office. Obama has only called on lawmakers to do what is “appropriate,” without explanation.

Thoughts?

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Tuesday, Dec 16, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Obama/Blagojevich update

Monday, Dec 15, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The latest…

Federal investigators have said that nobody in the Obama transition team is the target of their probe.

Obama’s transition team announced Monday that his review of transition aides who had contacts with Blagojevich over the seat has been completed – but won’t be released until next week, at the request of federal prosecutors.

* The non-stop coverage has taken a toll. This is from a national Rasmussen poll…

How likely is it that President-elect Obama or one of his top campaign aides was involved in the Blagojevich scandal?

23% Very likely
22% Somewhat likely
35% Not very likely
11% Not at all likely
10% Not sure

* That compares to these Illinois results…

How likely is it that President-elect Obama was involved in the Blagojevich corruption case?

13% Very likely
13% Somewhat likely
37% Not very likely
32% Not at all likely
6% Not sure

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Guv may sign special election bill

Monday, Dec 15, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I told subscribers that this was possible late last week. The governor is leaning in favor of a special election…

Should he stay in office, Gov. Blagojevich is warming to the idea of holding a special election for President-elect Barack Obama’s vacant U.S. Senate seat, the Chicago Sun-Times has learned.

The governor — facing criminal charges that he put the seat and other state-government decisions up for sale — was optimistic at the start of the weekend that he would sign a bill that would strip him of his power to name Obama’s successor, a Blagojevich source said Sunday.

* Meanwhile, Dick Durbin has flip-flopped…

U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, for instance, was an early supporter but is now calling for Blagojevich to resign so that the lieutenant governor could appoint a senator.

* Cullerton leans against…

“The most immediate solution to the short-term problem is if the governor could step aside, which the constitution allows, and Pat Quinn would become the acting governor and he (Quinn) could appoint the U.S. senator and that would be acceptable to the U.S. Senate,” said Cullerton (D-Chicago), who assumes the leadership of the chamber next month. […]

In his radio interview, Cullerton didn’t directly address what plan he favors, noting only that “with a special election, it’s very complicated because it’s very costly.”

“We need a senator immediately. We need a senator to be there to be voting in the first week of January to support…our incoming president, one of our former colleagues,” Cullerton said.

* House GOP Leader Tom Cross appears to be leaning towards the “hybrid” plan discussed yesterday by LG Pat Quinn. A temporary appointment followed by a special election…

A spokesman for House Minority Leader Tom Cross (R-Oswego), who expects to meet with Madigan possibly today, endorsed the package that was making the rounds.

“We feel the best way to restore any confidence the citizens of Illinois have in their government overall and in particular who the United States senator will be is to have a special election. The very preliminary language we’ve seen seems to accomplish that task,” Cross spokesman David Dring said.

* Jim Edgar is against the special election…

Former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar says the last thing the state needs right now is another partisan political battle.

EDGAR: I would much rather see that some, I don’t…blue ribbon committee or something come together and try to come up with a name of someone maybe who just would serve two years even and try to take this out of the political realm quickly.

* But the IL GOP is full steam ahead…

Illinois Republican Party leaders are launching a television campaign to push their position that a special election should be called to fill the vacancy caused by President-elect Barack Obama’s depature, a move to prevent a Senate appointment by scandal-scarred Gov. Rod Blagojevich or Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn if he takes over the top job.

With Blagojevich hanging onto office despite last week’s arrest in a corruption case, Republicans are seek to seiz the political advantage of a reeling state government headed by Democrats at every level.

“Blagojevich Democrats like Pat Quinn did nothing to stand up to Governor Blagojevich and his ethical lapses,” said Joe Birkett, the DuPage County state’s attorney.

Birkett questioned why “Pat Quinn stood silent” when they ran together in 2006, when it was known that Blagojevich was the “eye of the storm”

* Related…

* Black leaders see Senate seat being hijacked

* GOP sees hope for revival amid scandal

* Quinn a good man, but voters should pick senator

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Poll: Blagojevich less ethical than most, Obama not involved, 79 percent say toss RRB in jail

Monday, Dec 15, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A strong majority of Illinoisans appears to understand that, while we may be a corrupt state, Blagojevich is a special case. From a Rasmussen Reports poll taken last week…

Is Rod Blagojevich more ethical, less ethical, or about as ethical as most politicians?

4% More ethical
59% Less ethical
31% About as ethical
7% Not sure

* And 69 percent believe that Obama kept his distance…

How likely is it that President-elect Obama was involved in the Blagojevich corruption case?

13% Very likely
13% Somewhat likely
37% Not very likely
32% Not at all likely
6% Not sure

From the narrative…

Among Republicans, 20% say it is Very Likely Obama was involved in the corruption case, and another 26% say it is Somewhat Likely. Only seven percent (7%) of Democratic voters think it is Very Likely, with four percent (4%) saying it is Somewhat Likely.

Fifteen percent (15%) of unaffiliated voters rate Obama’s involvement as Very Likely, while 14% say Somewhat Likely.

* Not quite sure what to make of the split on this one, but it appears that people are still trying to wrap their heads around the events…

Were Blagojevich’s attempts to get large campaign contributions in exchange for political favors pretty typical of how most politicians operate?

39% Yes
35% No
26% Not sure

* And this is my favorite result from the poll…

Should Blagojevich go to jail for his actions?

79% Yes
8% No
13% Not sure

No need to clarify that result. Oof.

* From last week: New poll says 84 percent want guv to resign *** 73 percent want him impeached ***