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Seals ahead in new poll; Callahan panned; Obama replacements; Etc.

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As I told you below, a Democratic poll reportedly has Dan Seals leading Republican Congresscritter Mark Kirk by about a point. GOP polls have Kirk up by 4-5 points. A new Research 2000 poll taken for Daily Kos has Seals leading Kirk. Previous 9/30-10/1 Research 2000 poll is in parentheses…

Kirk (R) 43 (44)
Seals (D) 49 (38)

* Toplines…

* Obama vs. McCain…

* But will Seals’ late fundraising improve?

The Highland Park Republican’s campaign also continues to bring in thousands of dollars a day in donations just more than a week out from Election Day. For example, [Kirk’s] campaign took in nearly $40,000 on Wednesday and Thursday alone.

Seals, on the other hand, reported having $269,344 on hand as of Oct. 15. His fundraising since that point as continued to lag Kirk’s, according to 48-hour updates recorded with the Federal Election Commission.

* Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan comes in second place in Politico’s 10 worst ads of the season for her “Daisy” spot…

LBJ had the good sense to run his infamous “Daisy” ad — the one where a little girl picking petals off a flower is annihilated by a nuclear explosion — once. Here’s Democrat Colleen Callahan suggesting Daisy could get wiped out by her opponent’s support of nuke sales to Taiwan.

The ad…

…Adding… Statement from Callahan campaign…

Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional seat, will be canceling scheduled campaign events until further notice in order to be with her family after the death of her mother. Elaine Callahan passed away earlier today at the age of eighty-four.

* CQ Politics has a list of possible Obama replacements…

• Emil Jones, the president of the Illinois state Senate, mentor of Obama, and one of Blagojevich’s rare allies in the legislature. Furthermore, Jones will be without a job at the start of next year; he announced in August that he plans to retire in January, 2009.

• Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who would serve two political purposes. First, her appointment could please the faction of the state legislature led by her father, Michael J. Madigan, who is Illinois House Speaker and a bitter opponent of Blagojevich on spending issues. Second, it would literally get a potential gubernatorial rival out of town.

• Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth, who narrowly lost a House race in 2006.

• Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. , who was an early supporter of Obama and is an experienced congressional hand.

Whatever. If anyone knows what our governor will do on something this important, then please come work for me. We’ll make lots of money.

The story ends with this…

Those pondering the possibilities, though, agree that Blagojevich is unlikely to want any direction from Obama, and unlikely to get it.

“Obama will not step foot into Illinois politics. It’s a minefield,” said Paul Green who is a professor of policy studies at Roosevelt University. “He’d go to Kabul before he’d go to Springfield.”

My own view is that anyone who gets this job is gonna be horribly tainted by the Blagojevich appointment. It’s a political death knell.

* From Lynn Sweet…

Obama Illinois State Director Ken Bennet, who has been keeping a low profile all this time, emerges in a video to ask Illinois Obama backers to flood the neighboring key battleground states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana. Since there is not much Obama work to do in Illinois, the Illinois movable feast has been targeting the adjacent Big Ten states.

The Obama campaign has told me this export of political talent will not drain big House campaigns in Illinois where Democrats have a chance to make red districts blue.

Video…

* Bean shows softer, folksy side in new TV spot…

U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean’s newest TV commercial is a folksy piece that touts her background as a working mom and former business owner.

The 30-second ad, which launched Thursday, is softer than the congresswoman’s first TV piece, a fairly somber spot that focused on the nation’s economic crisis.

Here’s one of the ads…

All of her ads are here.

* Chicago Republicans to counter-program on Election Night

* C3 Presents, the Texas concert promoters who bring Lollapalooza to Grant Park each summer, have been tapped to stage the massive celebration the Obama campaign is planning to hold in Grant Park on election night.

* And the folks pushing for a “Yes” vote on the constitional convention have a new video…

26 Comments

Congressional roundup

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Larry has Charlie Cook’s change of ranking in the 10th CD…

IL-10 Mark Kirk Lean Republican to Toss Up

Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.

Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.

GOP internals reportedly have Kirk up about 4 or 5 points. A Democratic poll is said to have Kirk down by a point. If there’s a big Obama wave, Kirk could very well get swept away. Remember, however, that there are thousands and thousands of ticket-splitters in that district.

* Immigrants appear to be a big part of the electorate in the 10th District…

Immigrants could be a deciding voting bloc in at least eight Illinois congressional races where they make up more than 12 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday by an advocacy group.

Among the tightest races mentioned by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights is the 10th District, where Democrat Dan Seals is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. Experts say the longtime GOP district, which covers portions of Lake and Cook counties, could be trending Democratic based on recent presidential elections.

About 19 percent of the 10th District’s population is made up of foreign-born residents who are now U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old, making them eligible to vote, the report says. The group did not know how many of those individuals are registered to vote on Nov. 4.

* Meanwhile, Repub Martin Ozinga claims new polling shows a tight race, but he released no actual numbers to the Homer Horizon…

Ozinga’s campaign… now claims they are just two points behind Halvorson after they conducted a recent survey. Earlier polls had Halvorson leading by as many as 17 points.

* The AP has a story today about the role of Rod Blagojevich’s image in the Ozinga vs. Debbie Halvorson race…

Republican businessman Marty Ozinga repeatedly has knocked Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, for being a bigwig in Blagojevich’s Democratic-controlled state government. But she has tried to turn the tables on Ozinga - with help from the DCCC.

Halvorson has criticized Ozinga for previously donating to the governor’s campaign - primarily a $10,000 donation in 2005. To drive home the point, the DCCC funded an ad that called Ozinga “the last guy you’d send to clean up Washington” and featured a sheepish picture of Blagojevich.

Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero said the governor is a convenient bad guy for candidates in the heat of an election.

“If people are frustrated, they take it out on the person that they know,” Guerrero said. “He’s the top guy, so it’s him.”

* Ozinga organized a counter-protest to the NRA’s endorsement announcement of Halvorson…

As reporters, NRA members and Halvorson supporters entered the Downers Grove Sportsmen’s Club for Halvorson’s press conference, they had to drive through a group of sign-toting Ozinga supporters.

The NRA was not impressed…

“Debbie has a record; she earned this rating,” said Todd Vandermyde, a legislative liaison with the NRA. “Marty Ozinga can talk all he wants, but (he) is an untested quantity. All we know is what he says.”

* And now Halvorson is mocking Ozinga on guns via a YouTube “ad”…

* In another race, Public Citizen has filed a complaint alleging that Peter Roskam misused the franking privilege…

The House’s franking commission is investigating whether Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) violated franking rules, after the nonprofit group Public Citizen filed a complaint Thursday.

Members are prohibited from sending out official, unsolicited mail 90 days before an election. But Public Citizen alleges that Roskam sent out several brochures to his constituents after the Aug. 6 cutoff. […]

Roskam’s office didn’t immediately return calls for comment Thursday, but a spokeswoman for the Republicans on the House Administration Committee — which oversees the franking commission — said Public Citizen will have to prove that Roskam sent out more than 500 pieces of official mail. If it’s less than 500, the mail would not reach the threshold for a “mass mailing” and thus not fall under franking rules, other than for content. […]

“Right up into October, just weeks before the election, voters have been receiving two-page color mailers paid for by taxpayers, with Peter Roskam’s name splashed all over them,” Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said in a news release. “Taxpayers should not be footing the bill to advertise Roskam’s candidacy for Congress.”

The full complaint is here. [h/t: PI]

The Daily Herald endorsed Roskam’s opponent today.

* Republican Judy Biggert’s Democratic opponent has an unusual new TV ad…

…Adding… Biggert’s TV ads can be found at this link.

* More…

* GOP open seats fertile ground for House Democrats

* Voter registration hits record levels

* Cook County has more than 100,000 early votes

* Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean takes it easy against GOP challenger Steve Greenberg

* GOP challenger blasts Bean on mortgage legislation

* Our pick for Congress: Bean in 8th District

* 6th District campaign gets hotter

* For Congress: Retain Kirk in 10th District

* For Congress: Retain Foster in 14th District

* Our pick: Retain Manzullo in 16th District

* 2 Ill. races get large boosts from ind. groups

* Cong. Manzullo and his 16th CD Democratic Challenger, Robert Abboud on Cable this Saturday and Streaming

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax

Friday, Oct 24, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Not so deep thoughts

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I can clearly remember a time when nobody ever asked me if I thought the governor was insane.

* If someone gave me a $150,000 clothing and accessories allowance, I’d buy Krugerrands and claim they were the latest cufflink fashion.

* Thank goodness there’s no refund law in Illinois.

* Planning a Christmas vacation around the US Attorney’s work schedule has turned out to be a daunting task.

* Is Michael just gonna run through every name in the world as possible appointees to Obama’s seat so she can say she had the scoop?

* Anybody wanna buy a newspaper chain? Cheap?

Your turn.

63 Comments

Congressional roundup

Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson has released a new poll…

A poll paid for by Halvorson shows her leading Ozinga 48 percent to 29 percent, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5 percent. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 10 to Oct. 13. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The campaign released only a one-page summary of the results.

That tracks pretty closely with a Progress Illinois poll releaed Monday that had Halvorson ahead 50-29.

* Ozinga response…

Ozinga’s campaign said its polling shows a tighter race for the 11th Congressional District seat but declined to release numbers. Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere noted Halvorson is still at or under 50 percent in the polls despite major spending on advertising by her campaign and interest groups.

* Ozinga was endorsed by yet another newspaper. This time, it was the Bloomington Pantagraph…

The Pantagraph Editorial Board endorses Marty Ozinga because his businesslike approach to government would best serve this district — and the nation.

* Democratic congressional hopeful Scott Harper, who is up against Republican Rep. Judy Biggert, released part of his own poll, but not the head to heads. Instead, he leaked the Barack Obama numbers…

The poll, done Oct. 9 to 11 by Fako & Associates, showed Obama ahead of McCain in the district 47 percent to 40 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Fako is a good pollster, and those numbers track fairly with what I’ve been seeing in the region. McCain has tanked.

* Response…

Biggert campaign manager John Noak scoffed at the limited release, saying he is “very confident in the congresswoman’s polling that she is leading by a substantial amount.” The

* Democrat Colleen Callahan has a new ad that blasts GOP state Rep. Aaron Schock in their congressional race. It doesn’t look like a game changer to me, but see for yourself…

Schock has a new TV ad featuring Democratic state Rep. Susana Mendoza, but it’s not online yet.

* The Tribune endorsed Schock, Foster and Judy Biggert today.

* Dem Congresscritter Bill Foster has what appears to be his postive closer up on the air…

* Related…

* Governor replaces 2 election board members

* Candidates to replace Weller bring in big names for fundraising boost

* 14th District candidates offer views on energy issues