Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Thursday, Mar 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* We have two new congressional TV ads to rate today. First up, Jesse Jackson, Jr…

Among other things, the spot features a woman doing all the talking, probably because of the congressman’s problems in that regard. It also showcases a photo of President Obama and claims Debbie Halvorson “sat on the sidelines” during the healthcare debate.

* Adam Kinzinger says 2012 “must be about our future, not our past”…

The first time I heard the ad, it almost sounded like Kinzinger had something in his past he was trying to dismiss. Not sure it’s the greatest line, although it does make sense in the context of Don Manzullo’s long congressional tenure

* Ward Room interviewed House Speaker Michael Madigan’s Democratic primary opponent Michele Piszczor…

Ward Room: How would you vote on the conceal carry bill?

Piszczor: I don’t know. I’m out there canvassing. Ultimately, it’s not my ideas. It’s the people of my district’s. That’s why I’m out there canvassing, talking to the people of my district, hearing how they want me to vote in Springfield. Politicians too quickly put their own two cents in it, get paid by contributions that they get from people like Michael Madigan to vote certain ways. I’m out here for the people. However they wish for me to vote on these issues, that’s how I’m going to vote?

Ward Room: Has that come up yet?

Piszczor: It hasn’t. Their issue right now is the DREAM Act, which I am in favor of. The income tax increase, from 3 to 5 percent has been a big issue. […]

Ward Room: What does the state have to do to balance its budget, if not a tax increase?

Piszczor: If we have corporations to come back into Illinois and invest and want to do investment, then that gets people to get hired. When they get hired, they get taxed, federally and state, and then they turn around and buy homes, which you then purchase a mortgage, which you get taxed on, and those people purchase products in this state, which they get taxed on.

Ward Room: So what would you to bring jobs to Illinois?

Piszczor: The taxes are incredible, overcharging these people. The environment is not conducive for corporation investment in Illinois, is the best way I can put it. I’m talking to business owners, and they’re saying, ‘The taxes are killing us. At this point, it’s better for us to just close our doors.’

* The margin of error on this poll is so high that anybody who reports these numbers as fact should be put under heavy sedation in order to keep them away from a computer…

Republican primary voters in Southern Illinois favor former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney 29 percent to 21 percent, according to a new poll conducted by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

The survey, conducted last week, also shows former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich as the choice of 11 percent of GOP primary voters, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul drew 6 percent.

The “front-runner” among area voters is “undecided.” A plurality of Southern Illinois Republicans — 30 percent — said they were undecided, and 4 percent chose “other.”

Yes, 400 registered voters were surveyed. But 17 percent of them said they probably weren’t voting and another 17 percent said they weren’t sure if they were voting. Also, just 32 percent of those 400 registered voters are taking Republican ballots, meaning that a mere 128 people were polled on the presidential primary. That gives us a MoE of 8.66 percent. So, Santorum’s 29-21 lead over Romney is actually within the margin of error.

* But this is very cool…

If you live in Chicago and you don’t know where your precinct polling place is, the Board of Elections says there’s now an easy new way to find out.

What you have to do is text the board at (312) 361-8846. In the message space, put the simple version of your home registration address, e.g., 1000 W. Washington — no ZIP code, unit number or city. The board’s computer then will text you back with the address of your polling place for the March 20 primary.

Board Chairman Langdon Neal says “Where do I vote?” is the top question every Election Day. If enough people use the new system — and it works — it will be fully in place for the busier November general election, Mr. Neal adds.

* Roundup…

* Duckworth, Krishnamoorthi debate their differences, or lack thereof

* 8th Congressional District: Competing democrats focus on ousting Walsh - Democrats Duckworth, Krishnamoorthi avoid attacking each other in run up to primary

* Illinois GOP primary seen as increasingly relevant in presidential race

* Sheyman Sees Role For Feds In Business

* Ilya Sheyman’s Progressive Run

* Will There Be a Republican Primary in the 11th District?

* Cunningham ballot  status still unknown

* The 1992 Deja Vu - This primary season could prove to be full of surprises for complacent incumbents.

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Democrats have Downstate woes, rising suburban hopes

Thursday, Feb 9, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* “Downstate has seceded from the Democratic Party,” bemoaned a Democratic operative a few months back. The Tribune’s latest poll shows President Obama, who split the Downstate vote with John McCain in 2008, is in bad shape in the region. These first numbers are the president’s job approval ratings…

* And these ratings are for his handling of the economy…

Democratic legislative leaders are pushing hard to win every possible suburban seat they can because they’re deathly afraid of a Downstate bloodbath. Those results show you why.

A poll taken for Fox Chicago back in October had Obama’s Downstate approval at 39 percent and his disapproval at 57 percent, so he’s doing a bit worse in that region.

* However, the Tribune poll also clearly shows that Obama is rebounding in suburban Cook and in the collars. That October poll mentioned above had Obama upside down in the collar counties, 43 percent approved, 55 percent disapproved.

* And check out this Tribune poll nugget…

The survey found Obama to be particularly strong among women — especially among white suburban women who tend to be more socially moderate. Obama wins 63 percent of their vote against Romney and 65 percent of their vote against Gingrich, the poll found.

Yikes.

Suburban Republican candidates, particularly in Cook County, are not gonna like those numbers.

* More…

While tea party support for a congressional candidate has some influence among Republican voters, only 17 percent of voters overall said such an endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a contender.

Fully 34 percent of all Illinois voters said a tea party endorsement would make them more likely to vote against a candidate, and 39 percent said it would have no effect on their votes.

* But that’s about November. Let’s look at some primary news. House Speaker Michael Madigan’s primary campaign is getting some help from what some might think is an unlikely source…

A mostly Latino group headed by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights has scheduled a press conference for Friday morning and a rally for Saturday that’s aimed directly at Michele Piszczor, the young legal assistant who’s actually daring to take on the speaker in next month’s Democratic primary.

Joshua Hoyt, the group’s chief strategy executive, says Ms. Piszczor has refused to sign a “no hate” campaign pledge and is getting help from wealthy businessman Jack Roeser, a strong social conservative and vehement foe of the federal and state Dream Acts.

But Ms. Piszczor says she’s never even seen the pledge, and continues to deny any Roeser ties. “All of this is a play by Madigan.”

The pledge states that a candidate “will refuse any association with or support from — direct or indirect — individuals or entities that have a history of anti-immigrant extremism in Illinois.”

This is about interests. And having a Speaker who is now on board with the group’s agenda is most likely seen as far more preferable than electing a freshman who happens to have been born a Latina, especially if she’s being supported by “the enemy.” It’s not personal, it’s just business.

* New TV ads…

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is making an extraordinarily early move to shore up two embattled Republican members of Congress here.

The chamber this morning began a cable and broadcast TV ad blitz on behalf of U.S. Reps. Robert Dold of Winnetka and Judy Biggert of Hinsdale.

The “substantial” ad buy is the “earliest we’ve ever been up” in Illinois, according to a chamber spokesman, and comes a full month before the primary election, in which both are expected to be made the official GOP nominee for re-election.

Those surging Obama numbers may be one reason for the ads. I’m hearing that Obama is surging in Dold’s district, for instance. Here’s the Chamber’s Dold ad…

* Biggert ad…

As always when we discuss national politics, no bumper sticker slogans and drive-by comments. We’re not that kind of blog. Thanks.

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