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Poll: Not a whole lotta change

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Pulse Opinion Research just did a statewide survey of 1,000 likely voters on September 25th for Fox News. Governor…

Bill Brady 46%
Pat Quinn 36%
Rich Whitney 8%
Some other candidate 1%
Not sure 9%

US Senate…

Mark Kirk 42%
Alexi Giannoulias 40%
LeAlan Jones 7%
Some other candidate 2%
Not sure 9%

Just like Rasmussen, they didn’t include the Libertarian Party candidates and millionaire Scott Lee Cohen. These people are goofballs. There’s just no other way to say it.

Complete results and crosstabs.

Those xtabs show Alexi Giannoulias beating Mark Kirk with women 42-38, while Bill Brady is leading Pat Quinn with women 44-36. There’s just no excuse for that poor showing by Quinn. He simply doesn’t know what he’s doing. And this is from TPM

The internals of the poll show both Obama and McCain voters from 2008 supporting [Green Party US Senate nominee LeAlan Jones] in the same proportions, suggesting that support for him could be more a matter of pure protest vote as opposed to support being siphoned from Democrats.

The same is not true with the governor’s race. Green Party nominee Rich Whitney is getting 9 percent of Obama’s voters, but just 5 percent of McCain’s voters. He is, however, taking 6 percent from both Republicans and Democrats. He’s also getting 10 percent from those making more than $60K and 11 percent of people who say they are moderates.

* More toplines…

* Regardless of how you plan to vote, is Alexi Giannoulias honest and
trustworthy?

25% Yes
34% No
41% Not sure

* Regardless of how you plan to vote, is Mark Kirk honest and trustworthy?

18% Yes
41% No
42% Not sure

That’s a big reason why Kirk hasn’t yet put this away.

* As you already know, Rasmussen released its US Senate poll last week. In the past, they have always polled the governor’s race whenever they’ve polled the Senate race. This time, though, they say they didn’t do it. Odd. Anyway, we won’t have new gubernatorial numbers from them until next week.

Also, we successfully Freeped PPP’s site last week and their new Illinois poll numbers will start rolling out tomorrow I’m told.

* Meanwhile, the gubernatorial candidates will debate tomorrow at the Union League Club. We probably won’t have live video unless I can rig up a quickie mirror site, but we will have raw video right after the debate ends.

* Other campaign stuff…

* New ‘Super Pacs’ bringing millions into campaigns

* New redistricting data suggests Republicans could gain ground

* Tribune: Third rail politics

* Fight for Jewish votes steps up in 10th Congressional District

* 16th District candidates split over health care reform

* Hare, Schilling ads spar over jobs

  49 Comments      


Ink, barrel, etc.

Monday, Sep 27, 2010 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Um

Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias held a conference call [Friday] to take a couple shots at Mark Kirk for his vote on a small business loan bill. While the conference was happening, an AP reporter asked why Giannoulias was doing this on a conference call, not in person at a press conference. His answer? Bad hair day.

Go here to listen to the full quote. He got into a bit of a tiff with the AP reporter. And here’s the AP’s subsequent take

Democratic Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias wanted to rap his opponent over a vote in Congress, so he arranged a teleconference for reporters. Why not hold an actual news conference?

“I’m having a bad hair day,” Giannoulias joked before explaining that he thought the last-minute conference call was more convenient for everyone.

Republicans used the quip to link Giannoulias to a certain ex-governor known for obsessing over his hair.

“Alexi and Rod: More in common than we thought,” was the headline on a statement from the Illinois Republican Party.

Oops.

* Meanwhile, the Daily Herald appears to be catching on to the game that Bob Dold’s been playing with them. The paper just called him out on a rating by a tea party group that appeared in a conservative magazine. Notes next to the rating claimed that Dold’s campaign indicated “that he wishes to be viewed as a moderate.”

Dold initially denied knowing anything about the request. A couple of days later, his campaign told me this

We told them Bob is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate, and that he is pro-choice.

On Friday, Dold denied to the Daily Herald that his campaign asked to be ranked lower. But the paper was able to reach a member of the tea party group who was involved with its voter guide

On Monday, Patriots member Joan Seifert, who spoke with Folino about the guide, confirmed Folino didn’t want Dold to be rated highly by the group.

“They wanted to be sure he wasn’t perceived as a conservative, and I was more than happy to oblige that,” said Seifert, of Grayslake. […]

The group’s director, Lake Villa resident Tony Raymond, admitted no one in the Dold campaign specifically said he wants to be “viewed as a moderate,” as stated parenthetically in the voter’s guide.

“That’s our interpretation of why he wished not to be ranked highly,” Raymond said.

So, he didn’t ask to be viewed as a moderate, but his campaign did ask that he not be ranked highly.

The paper now appears to be getting more aggressive with Dold. The original hed on its story posted this afternoon was: “Dold, Seals at odds over tea party guide.” It’s now: “Dold: Campaign worker asked for low rating from tea party.ADDING: The hed now reads: “Tea party group: Dold campaign worker asked for low rating.”

Maybe the DH ought to look into this as well.

* Dold’s new ad


* The Hill made this campaign its Race of the Day

The National Republican Congressional Committee has already run an ad in the district, hitting Seals for his support of the recently-enacted healthcare law. “Pelosi’s plan didn’t go far enough for Dan Seals,” the NRCC’s attack ad said. “Oh no. Dan Seals said he supports the even more expensive public option.”

Meanwhile, President Obama sent out an email appeal for Seals, who will also benefit from an upcoming Democratic fundraiser set to be hosted by First Lady Michelle Obama.

Seals is part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “Red to Blue” program and the committee has reserved TV time in the district ahead of the fall. A Seals internal poll from earlier this month boasted a lead over Dold–49-36 percent.

The AFL-CIO also sent a mailer for Seals as part of a 2.5 million piece direct mail blitz for Democratic candidates across the country.

* But the Hotline says that national Republican support is light at the moment

The NRCC is also spending a little bit on the seat vacated by Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who is running for the Senate. The NRCC is spending $56K on an ad targeting Democratic nominee Dan Seals (D). But that’s hardly a drop in the bucket, given that broadcast TV in the Chicago media market costs millions.

* Related and a campaign roundup…

* President Obama, like wife, will headline Giannoulias fund-raiser

* Wave Of Third-Party Ads Adding to Dems’ Woes: In Illinois, Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) has been attacked on TV with more than $1M worth of ads from the Chamber of Commerce, American Crossroads and the Committee for Truth in Politics. In addition, his opponent Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) had more than $2.8M more in the bank at the end of the 2nd quarter, and the NRSC has not yet begun to spend the $3.4M they pledged to the Kirk campaign.

* Kirk, Giannoulias split on gay marriage, ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’

* Illinois GOP Tar Giannoulias With Anti-Petraeus Label

* Politicians’ money woes strike a chord with voters - Candidates who’ve faced bankruptcy or foreclosure are finding that many people sympathize with their problems. And their opponents refrain from attacking on the financial front.

* Giannoulias-Kirk race pitches curveballs to voters

* The decision that could cost Democrats the Senate

* Walsh calls on Bean to attend upcoming candidate forums

* Seals outlines plan for illegal immigration

* Dold, Keats, Harris to keynote Palatine Twp. GOP meeting

* Hare, Schilling continue to trade barbs over debate format

* Shimkus, Bagwell outline positions in 19th District U.S. House race

* State treasurer candidates lay out priorities

* Treasurer Candidate Wants Money Literacy

* Treasurer candidate defends satellite offices

  36 Comments      


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