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Frerichs calls out Cross on gay marriage

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Alexi Giannoulias used his Democratic primary opponent’s anti-abortion stance against him during the 2006 Democratic state treasurer’s primary, so I suppose it was inevitable that gay marriage would come up this time around

Illinois Treasurer candidate state Sen. Mike Frerichs (D-Champaign) is calling on his Republican challenger to support same-sex marriage.

Frerichs had accused Republican Tom Cross — the former 10-year Illinois House minority leader — of not coming clean on the issue. “Illinoisans deserve to hear his stance on a critical human rights issue,” Frerichs campaign urged. […]

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Carol Marin wrote in April that Cross’ stance was ambiguous: ‘It’s easy to take issue with Illinois House GOP leader Tom Cross if you are for same sex-marriage in Illinois. And easy to be angry with him if you’re against it. ‘ […]

When the Sun-Times reached out to Cross’ campaign, however, a spokesman said the state Rep’s stance is clear.

He’s against it.

“Last Spring when the issue came up he told people he was opposed to the bill,” said Cross spokesman Kevin Artl. “He hasn’t changed his view. He’s not supporting it.”

By contrast, Frerichs says:

“I am proud to be one of only two Downstate Senators to co-sponsor and vote for both marriage equality and civil unions,” Frerichs said.

I’m not sure how this issue directly relates to the treasurer’s duties, but running solely on the treasurer’s duties might make for a pretty darned dull campaign.

  24 Comments      


Not nearly enough

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Republican congressional candidate Mike Bost reported raising just $78,000 during the third quarter. Not good at all, to say the least. He spent $35K.

* In other fundraising news…

(F)ormer U.S. Rep. Bob Dold, a Republican who’s trying to reclaim his old job in the north suburban 10th District against Democratic incumbent Brad Schneider, reports raising $317,000 in the quarter ended Sept. 30 with $819,000 cash on hand.

Those are respectable totals, but the income figure was off markedly from the $546,000 Mr. Dold took in when he announced in the second quarter.

Mr. Schneider’s spokeswoman said he’ll disclose his totals tomorrow and declined to give any hints today. That’s likely not a good sign for him, but Team Dold is going to have to do better than $300K a quarter, too, from now on.

…Adding… A Schneider consultant tells me the Democrat will report raising $365,000 this quarter, the first time he’s outraised Dold.

* And one of Ann Callis’ Democratic primary opponents loaned himself some money

Democratic congressional candidate George Gollin of Champaign has put $165,000 of his own money into his 13th Congressional District race, a report filed with the Federal Election Commission shows.

Gollin, 60, a physics professor at the University of Illinois, reported $135,509 in contributions since organizing his campaign in February. With $165,000 in what is listed as two separate loans to his campaign, Gollin now has $262,087 on hand.

He also released a poll

The Gollin campaign also released the results of a poll by Public Policy Polling that shows both Gollin and Callis — who is backed by U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — trailing freshman U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville.

But the results are statistically similar, with Gollin trailing Davis 41 percent to 33 percent while Callis is behind the congressman, 40 percent to 35 percent. The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 3.6 percent.

A bit early to say if those results really mean anything. Right now they’re basically just generic Dem numbers vs. an incumbent. We’ll see what Callis’ numbers show. If she has the big bucks, then her name will get out there and she should be able to pull this off.

Nate Silver, by the way, recently referred to PPP as a “dubious” polling outfit.

  13 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Sun-Times takes a look at the gay marriage bill. Not much new here

[Longtime gay-rights activist Rick Garcia] said perhaps the main impediment facing Illinois is the political calendar. Lawmakers seeking re-election must submit their nominating petitions Dec. 2, more than three weeks after the scheduled Nov. 7 conclusion of the fall session. That leaves time for potential candidates opposed to same-sex marriage to gather enough signatures to mount primary challenges against House members who vote for Harris’ legislation.

“That’s what the holdup is,” Garcia said.

Same-sex marriage critic Bob Gilligan, executive director of the Catholic Conference of Illinois, said opponents still appear to outnumber supporters of the legislation because of its potential impact on religious liberties and that, indeed, possible primary challenges await any “yes” votes in the House.

Gilligan acknowledged the U.S. Supreme Court decisions and the pope’s statements are now “in the mix,” but local sentiment trumps those headlines. “Legislators have to respond to their constituents in their districts, and in many legislative districts, it’s an issue that’s close.”

The Sun-Times also reported that the sponsors could amend the bill so it takes effect in June, meaning they’ll just have to find a simple majority during the veto session, rather than a super majority.

* From a press release…

Gov. Pat Quinn will open the March on Springfield for Marriage Equality on Tuesday, Oct. 22 with a welcome.

He will be followed by speakers that represent the breadth and depth of the equal marriage coalition in Illinois. All speakers will deliver a common message to Illinois legislators: A majority of Illinoisans support the freedom to marry and the time for marriage equality in Illinois is now.

LGBT organizations, families and faith leaders will be joined at the podium by national and regional coalition partners for the 90 minute rally. They include:

• Michael Carrigan, president of the Illinois AFL-CIO

• Rudy Lozano, Uniting America director, Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights

• Jamie Frazier, senior pastor, Lighthouse Church

• Bonnie Grabenhofer, National Action vice president, National Organization for Women (NOW)

• The Rev. Mark Kiyimba, leader of the Unitarian Universalist Church of Kampala, Uganda

• Toni Weaver, president, Parents & Friends of Lesbians and Gays (Northern Illinois Region)

• Scott Cross, Illinois Chapter lead, President Barack Obama’s “Organizing for Action”

• Brigid Leahy, director, Planned Parenthood of Illinois

* The other side will also have a Statehouse rally, of course.

* And then there’s the money problem. Back in June, Equality Illinois pledged to raise $500,000 for a grassroots and media effort to pass the marriage bill. The group’s political action committee was supposed to raise $250,000. From a June 17th Equality Illinois press release…

The organization’s political action arm, Equality Illinois Political Action Committee (EQIL PAC), has pledged the other $250,000 in order to match marriage opponents dollar-for-dollar on the political battlefield.

“We will not shy away or be outraised in fighting for our freedom,” said Bernard Cherkasov, CEO of Equality Illinois. “Everywhere candidates turn in 2014, they’ll have to be aware that the information we bring to voters and the direct action in their campaigns might be present to help or challenge them, depending on whether they believe in the right for all couples in Illinois to have equal recognition under the state’s marriage law.”

The $250,000 political action piece of the Fight Back for Marriage plan, though formidable, is a target set to directly confront an opponent of LGBT equality, the so-called National Organization for Marriage, which threatened to spend $250,000 to oppose particularly Republican legislators who supported the freedom to marry.

“We will defend those candidates who demonstrate a dedication to the freedom to marry through their votes and campaign commitments,” said Jeremy Gottschalk, chair of Equality Illinois PAC board of directors. “And we will ensure that those who stand in the way of marriage equality are held accountable to the voters. No opponents of marriage equality can be sure that their re-election campaigns will be easy next year.”

* But as my colleague David Ormsby reported this morning

In the third quarter, Equality Illinois raised just $25,421. A day after the reporting period closed, it added another $5,000 from Chicago Cubs owner Laura Ricketts.

Despite all the anger in the immediate aftermath of the bill stalling in the House, advocates have so far failed to convert that post-session consternation into cash.

That’s absolutely horrible and inexcusable. If you want to frighten your enemies and soothe your potential allies, you’d better raise a whole lot more money than that.

Even so, many proponents remain hopeful that the marriage bill can pass during veto session.

* The Question: When do you think the gay marriage bill will pass? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


survey software

  32 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 *** Gloom and doom and an eye-popping pension claim

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bill Brady says the pension reform conference committee is still a ways from completing its work

A partisan split is developing as Republicans — three of whom are running for higher office next year — are demanding more information on additional cost-cutting measures they’re seeking, which could take weeks.

“We know the Democrats can’t pass this on their own,” said Republican Sen. Bill Brady. “Unfortunately I don’t see anything happening legislatively for at least four weeks at the earliest.”

The AP’s story is pretty doom and gloom about the prospects for getting a deal done.

* I’m told, however, that the committee members are asking the legislative leaders to set some parameters so that the negotiations can be better defined.

And if you read between the lines, it’s not a one hundred percent no-go. For instance, buried at the bottom is this

[Sen. Matt Murphy], a deputy Republican leader, called the latest plan “back-loaded in its current form” because it relies on future lawmakers keeping promises. But he declined to say outright whether he would vote for it or not.

“Past general assemblies’ unwillingness to do that is exactly what got us here in the first place,” Murphy said. “We only get one bite at this apple.”

The AP could’ve just as easily put Murphy’s quote at the top instead of burying it at the bottom to illustrate how it ain’t over ’til it’s over.

*** UPDATE *** WLS has more on a possible solution

Republicans on the conference committee apparently want more savings. State Rep. Mike Zalewski of Chicago – a Democrat on the committee – says the Republicans are not making unreasonable requests.

“To maybe bring the savings number up just a little bit with respect to the cost of living, things like that, maybe an alternative to a defined contribution plan for teachers that don’t want to stay in the system their whole careers,” Zalewski said.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Meanwhile, this is a pretty bold statement by Bruce Rauner

He favors capping pensions that have already been earned and moving government employees to a defined benefit, 401(k)-type of retirement plan.

“It’s what’s fair and affordable,” Rauner said. “Every dollar of excess pension … is a dollar that can’t go into other things.”

Making such a change would cut the state’s liability from $100 billion to $50 billion, according to Rauner.

None of the other plans, even Speaker Madigan’s harshest proposal, comes anywhere near to cutting the unfunded liability in half. Madigan’s plan would’ve “only” cut $21 billion from the unfunded liability.

I’ve asked for an explanation and will let you know what the Rauner campaign says.

*** UPDATE *** Thanks to a commenter, the Rauner plan appears to be based on HB 3303. From the synopsis

Amends the Illinois Pension Code. With respect to the 5 State-funded retirement systems: Provides a new funding formula for State contributions, with a 100% funding goal and amortization calculated on a level dollar amount.

Provides that no additional service credit may be accrued and no automatic increase in a retirement annuity shall be received. Provides that the pensionable salary of an active participant may not exceed that individual’s pensionable salary as of the effective date.

Provides that State-funded retirement systems shall establish self-directed retirement plans for all active participants and all employees hired on or after the effective date. Provides that all active participants shall have the option of participating in a self-directed retirement plan. Provides that these changes are controlling over any other law. Effective immediately.

* COGFA studied the impact on one system, TRS

The Commission’s actuary performed a cost study on a proposal that is substantially similar to HB 3303. That cost study showed a long-term reduction in State contributions for TRS only (through FY 2045) of $71.4 billion, and a reduction in FY 2014 unfunded liability of $27.4 billion. However, this cost study assumed no deviation from the current statutory funding target of amassing assets that are equal to 90% of DB liabilities by FY 2045. HB 3303 changes this target to 100% by FY 2045, and it specifies a level-dollar amortization approach. These two changes would result in greater long-term savings than those previously mentioned; however, an updated actuarial study would be required to capture the precise savings associated with the funding changes.

However, the bill has just three co-sponsors, and all three (Morrison, Ives, Wheeler) are probably the furthest to the right of any House member. It ain’t exactly a popular idea.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* In other news

As he runs for re-election, Gov. Pat Quinn is staking a lot on getting something done with pensions. He’s making a show of asking the state Supreme Court let him cancel legislators’ salaries until it’s done, and he says he won’t deal with other major issues before the General Assembly — like using tax credits to keep ADM headquartered in Illinois — until there’s what he calls a “comprehensive pension solution.”

But it’s hard to tell just what that means.

Most of the ten legislators he tasked with crafting that solution don’t even seem to know. They say he’s been largely absent … until this month. Amanda Vinicky checked in with the ten representatives and senators on a special pension committee to see how involved the governor has been as they negotiate a pension deal.

Go read the whole thing.

  44 Comments      


Quinn announces aid to move corporate HQ while ADM eyes Dallas

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bloomberg

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM), the world’s largest corn processor, is considering Dallas among other U.S. cities as it looks to move its global headquarters from Decatur, Illinois, according to a person familiar with the situation.

ADM’s site selection team visited Dallas on Oct. 8, according to the person who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. ADM executives visited other cities last week, including Minneapolis and Atlanta, and Chicago is also being considered, the person said. […]

Along with an international airport, Dallas and the surrounding region is home to several ADM customers including Kimberly-Clark Corp. and Dean Foods Co. Dallas is the ninth-largest city in the U.S. and the third-largest in Texas, according to the website of the Dallas Convention & Visitors Bureau.

* Meanwhile, the same governor who vowed to veto any bill which gave ADM any tax breaks to stay in Illinois made an announcement today…

Governor Pat Quinn joined FER-PAL Construction officials today to open the water main rehabilitation company’s new U.S. headquarters in Elgin, creating 50 new jobs. Governor Quinn’s personal involvement helped convince the firm to choose Illinois. This announcement is part of Governor Quinn’s agenda to drive Illinois’ economy forward and protect the environment by modernizing water infrastructure.

“FER-PAL joins a growing list of companies who are choosing Illinois to grow their business,” Governor Quinn said. “The company is also ideally situated to participate in the Clean Water Initiative, which is putting people back to work updating our water systems and infrastructure across Illinois.”

Governor Quinn met with FER-PAL CEO Shaun McKaigue and Toronto (Canada) Mayor Rob Ford when they traveled recently to Chicago. Later, Governor Quinn solidified the relationship with FER-PAL while visiting Mayor Ford in Toronto and convinced the firm to locate its U.S. headquarters in Elgin.

Quinn’s office says the company qualifies for an EDGE tax credit worth about $260,000 over 10 years.

* Also, remember SB 20? The proposal included a state subsidy to locate a massive fertilizer processing plant in Illinois. Quinn signed that bill into law in late July, after he vetoed legislative legislative salaries out of the budget because the GA supposedly wasn’t doing its job on pensions.

Update on that fertilizer plant subsidy

For the first time since the project surfaced in March, Gov. Pat Quinn and company officials said Illinois and Iowa aren’t alone in their pursuit of a $1.1 billion fertilizer plant.

In comments to reporters in Urbana, Quinn said Cronus Chemical LLC is still considering its options when it comes to building the facility near Tuscola in Douglas County, even though he’s already signed off on a multi-million dollar package of state tax incentives.

“We still have a ways to go. They have to make their decision,” the Chicago Democrat said.

However, he added that the site near Tuscola and one in northern Iowa may not be the only places under consideration for a urea production facility by the Delaware-based company.

The lesson may be that deals the governor negotiated and supports are A-OK while pension reform languishes. Deals he didn’t negotiate have to be stopped.

  8 Comments      


Dillard slams Rauner over Levine

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Bill Cameron

[Sen. Kirk Dillard] says he has to laugh when he hears his opponent Rauner call himself an outsider. While taping “Connected to Chicago” for Sunday morning at six, Dillard connected Rauner to a now imprisoned insider.

“He had Stuart Levine on his payroll for $25,000 a month while he was hawking business from the Illinois teachers retirement system,” Dillard said. “That’s an insider to me. There are different kinds of insiders. Mr. Rauner is the worst kind of insider. He’s the one doing the buying.”

* Listen to the full Dillard response. It’s quite brutal…

* Rauner’s response via Greg Hinz

Team Rauner shot back that Mr. Dillard “hasn’t learned from his last failed campaign that he’s better off promoting himself than attacking fellow Republicans.” The statement went on to remind voters that Mr. Dillard, who ran for governor four years ago, has accepted political contributions from some labor unions and once — in 2008 — appeared in a TV ad for a former state Senate colleague, Barack Obama, who was running for president for the first time.

The turn-the-tables response is fair politics, I guess. But it certainly doesn’t respond to the Levine matter

No, it doesn’t.

* But

Mr. Dillard said the entire episode needs further review to determine whether Mr. Rauner engaged in “pay-to-play” politics in some way.

That’s pretty strong stuff — which would work awfully well in a TV ad, if Mr. Dillard had the money to buy lots of TV ads. He doesn’t, at least so far, but now he’s started raising the issue of the Rauner-Levine connection publicly. We’ll see if it sticks.

A well-played shot at 6 o’clock on a Sunday morning that gets almost no media coverage ain’t gonna move the needle at all.

* Related…

* ADDED: Bill Daley donors to get back 83% of their campaign cash

* Rauner and Sanguinetti in Danger of Echoing McCain and Palin

* Tracy: Illinois needs change: She touched on the standard Republican talking points about the need for tort reform and changes to the Illinois’ workman compensation and unemployment insurance systems as well as reducing the minimum wage in favor of business interests… She additionally advocated passing previously rejected legislation to place photo identification on food assistance cards or requiring drug testing for recipients of other benefits.

* Rauner pushes pensions, education reform during stop in Bloomington

* Candidate Dillard Stops by for Session at Homer Founders Club

* Rutherford, Kim host Pontiac fundraiser

* Quinn, Democrats drum up support in suburbs

  32 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Fun with numbers

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Kurt Erickson takes a closer look at the numbers used by Gov. Pat Quinn’s administration to justify closing the Warren G. Murray Developmental Center in Centralia, which cares for severely developmentally disabled people

To bolster their argument, the state says it costs taxpayers $239,000 per year to house residents at Murray. Placing them in private facilities would cost $120,000, they estimate.

The state’s figures, however, are intellectually dishonest. Here’s why.

The cost per resident in fiscal year 2006 when Murray had 342 residents was about $130,000 per year, according to figures provided by the Illinois Auditor General’s office.

In fiscal year 2009, when there were 298 residents, the average cost was listed as $180,000 per year.

Now, with the population down to about 230 residents, the cost has skyrocketed because they haven’t reduced the number of employees at the facility.

In other words, the cost of housing residents in Murray would be significantly cheaper if they actually filled all 372 beds or reduced the number of people working there.

Excellent point.

*** UPDATE *** From DHS…

Rich,

Before Governor Quinn took office, Illinois institutionalized more people than any other state in the nation. We are now changing under the direction of the governor to improve the quality of life for people with developmental disabilities in Illinois.

We are committed to rebalancing and improving Illinois’ system of care for people with developmental disabilities. Evidence strongly suggests that residents living in smaller homes have a better quality of life and participate more in their community. Moving individuals from large, outdated institutions to community settings also saves taxpayer dollars.

To be clear, the article that published last weekend regarding the operational costs of the Murray Developmental Center in Centralia was incomplete and deserves further clarification.

There are several ways to calculate the cost per resident in a state operated developmental center (SODC). The first is a basic calculation that divides the annual spending by the average number of residents. For the Murray Developmental Center, that puts the annual cost per resident at $143,217. The other, more thorough and complete method is based on methodology and reimbursement rates used by the federal government. This method includes costs that are not included in an SODC budget but in the broader state budget, such as medication, retirement contributions, group insurance, worker’s comp, union wage increases and facility improvements. Under this comprehensive and more accurate calculation, the annual cost is about $239,934 per resident at Murray Center and approximately $120,000 in the community.

The article calls into question whether more money could be saved by cutting down the number of staff. But the reason the Illinois Department of Human Services is maintaining employee headcount during the closure process is to ensure a safe and secure transition for remaining residents. So yes, the cost of operation under the simple calculation indeed increases as the closure process continues. However, that is a small and temporary price to pay to ensure a safe facility closure. And once the transition is complete, delivery of care will not only be more cost-efficient, it will also offer people with disabilities a higher quality of life and that’s the point in the first place.

Januari Smith
Communication Manager
IL Dept. of Human Services

That response twists the essential meaning of Erickson’s piece, which is that DHS and Quinn are using these new numbers to justify closing down a state facility.

  18 Comments      


Our flip-flopping naggers

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I have often chided Downstaters and suburbanites for petty, counter-productive regionalism. This time, it’s Chicago’s turn.

My Sun-Times column

For years, Illinois leaders have been scolded for not being more like our neighboring states’ leaders. Why can’t our government come up with innovative ideas like theirs?

Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels was hoisted so high up on a pedestal by some folks here that he was nearly elevated to demi-god status.

So, what happened when Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn, who was stung badly when Daniels compared Illinois’ governance to “The Simpsons” TV show, finally teamed up with the Hoosier state’s sainted erstwhile governor on a massive public-private infrastructure project?

What happened when Daniels, who signed a union-busting “right to work” bill into law, negotiated a significant compromise with some major Illinois unions for that project?

Well, many of those same Daniels worshippers have flip-flopped and are now screaming that the world’s about to end.

The project is the proposed Illiana Expressway. It’s a “public-private partnership” designed to be a freight corridor through southern Will County from Interstate 55, across I-57 over to Indiana’s I-65.

If you’ve traveled down I-55 through Will County you couldn’t help but notice the unbelievably dense truck traffic. That’s because the county has developed a massive “inland port,” connecting railway and truck cargo shipments.

There’s even been some hope that the proposed third regional airport near the Peotone I-57 exit could complement the Will County operation with cargo flights.

What’s that? Peotone?

Ah, we’ve stumbled across the magic word.

Chicago has been trying to kill the third airport idea for decades, and it has so far succeeded. But when former Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. — the airport’s biggest booster — self-immolated, Gov. Quinn stepped in and seized control and the airport now looks like more of a possibility than it ever has.

A major new road running right by that proposed airport would be another huge boost to the airport’s future, so the road has to be stopped. It’s hardly a secret.

A lot of numbers are being tossed around, but keep in mind that this would be a toll road funded at least in part by private investors.

One objection to the road is that it would create more unsightly urban sprawl. But even the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP), which this week voted to disapprove of the project, admits that the freight corridor likely won’t lead to more sprawl.

The main complaint by CMAP, though, is that the road could expose the state to “significant financial risk.”

If the state’s toll revenue projections come up short, then the state could wind up paying the tab, which CMAP claims might be as much as $1 billion. And if that happens it could mean less money for much needed Chicago-area projects.

There are most definitely some regional jealousies at play here as well. A win for another region is too often seen as a loss for Chicago. So, it was no accident when CMAP Chairman Gerald Bennett ridiculed the project this week as a “highway in nowhereland.”

The bottom line here is that Illinois desperately needs jobs and innovative development. And it really needs to get beyond the petty regionalism that has held it back for so many years. If Chicago wants a similar project, then Chicago ought to make it happen.

So, I have a two-part suggestion.

Just to be safe, a neutral third party should review the state’s toll revenue projections.

Then, if the numbers work, let’s see if private investors really do step up to help finance this thing. If investor interest is weak, and no other non-tax funding sources can be found, then everybody could move on to something different.

Needless to say, this being Illinois, I’m not exactly holding my breath.

* Related…

* Illiana Expressway plan looks like it will pass

* Kadner: Quinn asks mayors to save Illiana: Quinn also criticized Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel who opposes the planned tollway, for taking a “parochial attitude.” Emanuel has indicated that he fears financial support for the Illiana Expressway will drain money away from Chicago road projects. “We need to take a regional approach,” Quinn said. “What helps one area of the region helps the entire region.”… State Sen. Toi Hutchinson (D-Olympia Fields) came out of the meeting with Quinn and said, “If it’s time to draw a line in the sand, and ask who stands with us or against us, I’m ready to do that.” Hutchinson said she had worked with Chicago legislators and others, helping them to pass bills that would benefit their areas, and was “tired of watching people turn around and say they’re opposed to projects whenever they’re about to help the south suburbs.” “If they want my help in the future, if they want my vote, they’re going to have to show some support for projects in the area I represent,” she said.

* Quinn throws support behind Illiana: Home Depot, Quinn said, was already looking to expand at the intermodal site, using it as a center for 340 stores. Quinn said there was a “great deal” of interest from private investors in building the expressway. He said the public-private partnership, which would presumably be funded with tolls, would be “the first if its kind.”

* Reiher: CMAP’s Bennett a Nowhere Man

  34 Comments      


The Missouri option?

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2013 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

Bruce Rauner has closer ties to top Democrats in this state and nation than many Democrats do, is pro-choice and reluctant to say where he stands on gay marriage, so you wouldn’t think he’d have much chance at winning a Republican primary election for governor.

But the retired multi-millionaire is running a pretty smart campaign and raising tons more money than his opponents, so nobody can count him out.

State Sen. Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) told the Chicago Sun-Times he raised a mere $75,000 this past quarter, which ended Sept. 30. The Chicago Tribune reported that state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) had raised $239,000 in large contributions during the quarter, but he’s still carrying quite a lot of debt from his failed 2010 governor’s race. State Treasurer Dan Rutherford says he raised $333,000 during the quarter and has about $1.2 million in the bank.

Rauner, on the other hand, raised more than $1 million in the third quarter and about $3 million since he kicked off his campaign. And with his personal wealth, he could spend lots, lots more.

More than a few Democrats and even some Republicans are wary of Rauner, saying that somebody else with deep pockets may need to step in to snuff out his campaign before he makes it out of the primary. And Democratic-affiliated groups appear to be the most logical source of that cash.

As polling has shown, Rauner has some serious negative issues in a GOP primary that might be OK with voters in a general election.

His close affiliation to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, for instance, has killer negative numbers among Republicans, but it won’t exactly be easy for Gov. Pat Quinn to use that against the guy in the general election. Rauner and his wife have supported Democratic candidates, which ain’t good in a Republican contest but is a nice positive once the primary is over.

As noted above, Rauner is pro-choice and won’t say where he stands on gay marriage, but he has left himself more than enough wiggle room to pivot toward support gay marriage once the primary election is over.

In other words, if Rauner wins the Republican nomination, he could be a nightmare for the Democratic Party.

Rauner is strongly anti-union and has all but vowed to break the public employee unions. So it seems only logical that those unions or the Democratic Governors Association and/or someone else would decide that beating Rauner in a primary election would be much more cost efficient than letting him out of that tight, ideological Republican pen and into the wide-open spaces of a general election.

This sort of thing has never been done statewide in Illinois, but it was pulled off last year by U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and the national Senate committee. They spent a combined $1.7 million in Missouri’s Republican primary to help nominate the far-right Tea Partier Todd Akin, who went on to self-immolate in the fall campaign. The Democrats spent more money on Akin’s behalf than Akin did in his campaign.

So, could it happen here? Nobody’s talking yet, but it sure looks like a good investment, particularly for the public employee unions.

Rauner has talked openly of shutting down state government, if necessary, to bring down the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the union that represents most state workers. His pension reform ideas include tossing out the employees’ traditional, defined-benefit pension program for a defined-contribution system such as a 401(k) plan.

Rauner opposes teacher tenure, the right of teachers to strike and on and on and on. He also favors making Illinois a “right to work” state, which labor loathes.

Quinn would probably prefer that Democrats and their supporters try to stop Rauner in March. Rauner could wind up spending a king’s ransom in the November election. He’s also close enough to Emanuel to make Quinn more than a little nervous.

So, spending a few million dollars before the March primary to expose Rauner’s Democratic side to Republican voters would be a whole lot cheaper than the tens of millions it could cost to fight him a year from now.

Keep in mind that it’s not that Quinn would get off easy with any of the other three Republican candidates. And it’s not that Rauner would be a slam-dunk winner in the primary, either.

Quinn could use the playbook that President Obama used against the wealthy Mitt Romney last year (a playbook that Obama borrowed from Quinn’s 2010 race for governor against Brady).

But Rauner appears to pose the biggest risk to the Democrats because of his moderate stances on social issues, his Chicago connections and his ability to bring in money from others and himself.

More on Rauner later this morning.

  32 Comments      


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