Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The setup…

Illinois state Sen. Kirk Dillard says he’s preparing to make another run for Illinois governor.

The Hinsdale Republican’s name has often been mentioned as a top candidate for the 2014 race. He narrowly lost the 2010 gubernatorial primary to Republican Sen. Bill Brady.

Dillard tells WIND-AM in Chicago that he’s more committed to the race now and that he has a proven track record and statewide recognition from his work with previous Republican governors.

* The Question: Thoughts?

105 Comments

J3 working on plea deal?

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Michael Sneed has very good federal and Jackson organization sources, so this is fascinating…

Sneed has learned U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who handily won re-election Tuesday despite a lengthy stay at Mayo Clinic for depression and bipolar disorder, is in the midst of plea discussions with the feds probing his alleged misuse of campaign funds.

“No one has pled guilty, but plea discussions are ongoing,” said a top Sneed source, who said Jackson is still undergoing treatment at Mayo Clinic.

Sneed is also told Jackson, who returned to Mayo Clinic after undergoing outpatient treatment in the seclusion of his home in Washington, D.C., is not only being investigated for allegedly using campaign funds to decorate his Washington home — but also Sneed hears he may also have used campaign funds to buy a $40,000 Rolex watch as a gift for a female friend.

* That last item about the watch has set off a fury among some female aldermen…

“In every marriage somewhere down the line, you think that your husband might fool around on you, but not necessarily commit adultery. Being a high-profile person, how constrained could he be? But, to have it all now slammed in her face. That has got to be so humiliating, it’s like, I don’t want to get out of bed,” said Ald. Carrie Austin (34th), chairman of the City Council’s Budget Committee.

“You fooled us all — including your wife. We respected you were ill. [We said,] `Let the man heal.’ And then, you come out with this poppycock? I’m angry that you would wait until the day after the election that you won handily with the support of all of us. Nobody came against you. Then, you come out the next day working out a deal? We’ll deal your butt out of the Congress. Get somebody in there who’s gonna be honest with us and work on our behalf. Maybe, it should be Sandi.” […]

“She’s tried to stand up under all this pressure. She’s tried to be a good wife [and] stand behind her husband. Then, you turn around and do this? You bought this hussy a $40,000 watch? He would need to stay at the Mayo Clinic if he was my husband,” Austin said.

“This is a real expensive girlfriend. Wow. What $40,000 watch have you bought for Sandi, you buzzard?” […]

Ald. Deborah Graham (29th) said she was “heartbroken” for Sandi Jackson and the humiliation she must be enduring.

“She’s got to be torn. She’s got to be going through a lot of different emotions. It’s a terrible time for her and her children,” Graham said.

If she was in Sandi’s shoes, Graham said, “I would be devastated, but there’s some vows that you make. Now, she has to make some decisions about whether she stands by him or makes other choices. Those decisions belong to her. She’s a beautiful and bubbly person. My heart goes out to her. It’s a sad time.”

33 Comments

Derrick Smith quotables

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Indicted State Representative-elect Derrick Smith, who was kicked out of the House earlier this year…

He told reporters Thursday that he’s going to “let bygones be bygones” so he can focus on the needs of his constituents.

* And…

“Today I stand before you as a new man. I’m excited again about representing the people of the 10th district, and I intend to work hard, and work hand-in-hand with those who voted against me and those who worked against me, because that is the best thing to do for the individual constituents of the district,” Smith said.

* His attorney also got into the act…

Meantime, [Smith attorney Victor Henderson] framed Smith as a trailblazer in Springfield, and an independent voice standing up to all the legislators who have worked against him.

“There were a lot of ministers who didn’t want Martin Luther King up here in the ’60s because he said he was causing problems. Look what good he did. People wanted Nelson Mandela to be quiet. People wanted Jesus to be quiet,” Henderson said.

Discuss.

27 Comments

Aftermath: Bloodbath?

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Out of the two, only Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno appears to be in any sort of trouble, right now and that’s not a sure thing either…

Ms. Radogno and House Minority Leader Tom Cross are also facing calls to step down, but the “million-dollar question,” as another party operative put it, is who would replace them. So far, the few names that have surfaced have been conservatives from downstate who wouldn’t necessarily be able to make the party more competitive in the suburbs of Chicago. Ms. Schuh said her boss “intends to pursue leading the caucus through the next phase.”

“They have to watch what they wish for — they might get it,” said state Rep. Angelo “Skip” Saviano, a moderate Republican who lost his west suburban seat after 20 years in the Illinois House. As assistant minority leader, he worked closely with Mr. Cross, who could not be reached for comment. “He’s the hardest-working guy I know, and it’s a thankless job.”

After this week’s historic drubbing, it will only take 10 votes to elect a Senate minority leader. Stuff can happen…

A day after suffering through one of their worst elections in modern times, at least one GOP lawmaker said he’s considering challenging Minority Leader Christine Radogno for control of the soon-to-be 19-member Republican caucus in the Senate.

“Obviously, it’s something that has to be addressed,” said state Sen. Kyle McCarter, R-Lebanon. “We need to do a better job of delivering our message. We’ve got to restructure our party from the bottom up.”

McCarter’s potential candidacy emerged after Tuesday’s Democratic tidal wave gave Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, a 40-seat, veto-proof majority beginning in January, while House Speaker Michael Madigan saw his Democratic majority increase by seven seats to a veto-proof 71.

Actually, McCarter has been talking about running for months.

* The chamber’s right wing is not united, however…

Republican Sen. Dan Duffy, of Lake Barrington, suggested an alternative to Radogno as leader: Sen. Darin LaHood, the Peoria-area lawmaker who is the son of Ray LaHood, Obama’s transportation secretary. Sen. LaHood could not be reached for comment.

* And Radogno should be encouraged by this…

“We’re a team,” [Sen. Bill Brady] said. “We went into this as a team. There’s no question we’re a little shell-shocked right now. But we were tremendously outspent and egregiously out-mapped.”

They were “egregiously out-mapped” because the GOP lost the 2010 governor’s race.

Just sayin…

22 Comments

Et tu, Kass?

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* John Kass apparently agrees with Michael Sneed that Bill Daley is serious about running for governor…

Illinois Gov. William Daley.

Get used to it. Because he wants it. And he’s reaching for it.

“I’ve thought about it before and I don’t take it off the table,” Daley told me in an interview on WLS-AM 890 on Wednesday as he sat for an hour talking national and local politics. “I think right now, to be very frank with you, the last thing in the world anybody wants to hear about is a race that’s two years down the road.” […]

“I’m not closing the door and, I know that sounds like a politician, but the fact of the matter is that these are tough days and I think there’s a lot to be done by the (state) Legislature. I don’t think it helps right now for people to be out there saying they’re going to run and they have a solution at this point. I think we’ve got to see what the Legislature does.”

And then he methodically discussed how state government, all but bankrupt under a crushing multimillion-dollar debt from unfunded pension liabilities for public workers, could deal with the red ink drowning the state. He said that each side has to give. Republicans have to give on taxes, Democrats on compelling the unions and others to pay more of the freight. Daley said a compromise wouldn’t work unless each side took actions that could cost them in the election.

I found these to be serious words offered by a serious man.

Bill Daley has been talking about running for governor since at least 1999. I kinda fell for his game three years ago. So, I’ll believe it when I actually see it.

The power of an incumbent governor during a primary is pretty significant. Just ask Dan Hynes.

Not to mention that the Daley brand is old and wilted.

…Adding… Greg Hinz…

Mr. Daley, the brother of former Mayor Richard M. Daley, sure has been acting like a candidate. He’s been booked to talk to the City Club of Chicago on Dec. 20 — a good sign of a pol who wants to raise his profile. He’s releasing a new report on state schools in a few days. And he told Chicago Tribune columnist John Kass this morning that the gubernatorial option is on the table.

But Mr. Daley made similar moves a few years ago, then backed off at the last minute. If incumbent Pat Quinn decides to run again, is Mr. Daley reallllly willing to go through what could be an extraordinarily nasty primary battle with him for the rights to battle the GOP nominee in what might well be a Republican year?

* Meanwhile, Gov. Pat Quinn was asked yesterday whether he’s planning to run again…

“I’m the governor,” Quinn said with a giggle. “We don’t plan to change the title.”

* And then there’s this challenge…

For Democrats flush with power, there are pitfalls ahead. Madigan and Cullerton can now render the governor’s veto power meaningless. Already, lawmakers and Quinn have clashed over casino expansion, with the governor using his veto despite Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s support for the measure.

Quinn, who indicated Wednesday that he plans to run again, said he did “not at all” see a downside or a threat to his own power.

They can only render Quinn’s veto power “meaningless” in the House if they hold every single Democrat (not always easy) or pick up some GOP votes. But the two chambers have a decent record of overriding vetoes already. The governor totally vetoed 8 bills in 2011. The GA overrode three.

He’s not totally irrelevant. But he is less relevant than he was, particularly in the Senate. He needs to be aware of the pitfalls, and he often isn’t.

* And he might want to tone down his optimism…

Quinn said Wednesday that the new majority will allow for what he calls progressive and overdue policies. […]

Quinn reiterated his call for legislators to tackle the state’s pension system, which is the worst funded in the country.

A lot of those new Democrats aren’t all that liberal. And some of them don’t particularly care for his pension reform ideas.

…Adding… Good point from Chris Mooney…

Exultation might be the natural reaction after unleashing such a blistering conquest. But all those new lawmakers will have their own agendas, making party cohesion more difficult. And Mooney said they pose other problems, particularly in setting an agenda that voters in distinct legislative districts will support in the next election.

“It’s unlikely they’re going to just cram through something crazy,” Mooney said. “One, it’s hard to get everybody on board, and even if they did, they’re going to pay for it down the road.”

24 Comments

Joe Walsh on the party’s future and his own

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Soon to be ex-Congressman Joe Walsh was asked by the Daily Herald where the Illinois GOP needs to go…

My answer is simple. This state has fallen off a cliff. It’s a one-party state. We need a GOP that clearly and forcefully and cheerfully articulates a different vision. The state party hasn’t stood for anything for years. It’s enabled House Speaker Mike Madigan to have so much power. […]

It’s by having a clear stance. You have to go to independents and say to guys and girls, “The state has the worst foreclosure crisis in the country.” Republicans need to go to Latinos and Hispanics and blacks and say, “the education you’re getting at city public schools is terrible.” I believe in school choice. Republicans have to stand for real ideas. If all we have to do to get more voters is sound like Democrats, we’re never going to win. We can’t out-Democrat the Democrats.

Calling them “girls” probably won’t work, Joe. That’s actually part of the problem with the GOP.

Also, as long as you’re extreme on national issues, most Latinos won’t listen to you, either.

And as far as African-Americans, the GOP will have to actively kick the “white identity” types out of its party the way the Democrats did decades ago before black people will view the Republicans as an alternative.

* But here’s the best part of the Daily Herald story…

Q. What about a bid for governor for you? A possibility?

A. You know that I believe fervently in that vision. I don’t know of many other candidates who articulate that vision. Am I going to do something? Oh gosh, I don’t know. People approach me every day and ask, “Walsh, are you going to run for the governor? Are you going to run for Senate?” I want to do my part to lead a movement to present a vision to this. I’d rather go down fighting. Democrats have ruined this state but they’ve been able to do it because the Republicans have allowed them to.

Yeah, I’m sure lots of people want him to run for governor. Put Pat Quinn at the top of that well-wisher list.

59 Comments

Can Schock walk his talk?

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Congressman Aaron Schock takes stock of his party’s stunning losses…

“We have to run candidates who can compete in districts that are swing or Democratic seats. Don’t offend moderate women and young people. We can’t have candidates who say silly things.”

Easier said than done. Moderates are often outgunned in primaries by unelectable ultra-conservatives, who then go on to offend moderate women and say “silly things.”

Party leadership needs to start hitting back at these people. Where was Schock when Joe Walsh went off about “no exceptions” for abortion including life of the mother? Where was anybody else, for that matter?

The only way the GOP can “run candidates who can compete in districts that are swing or Democratic seats” is by making sure that those sorts of candidates win their primaries. And that means taking a hard line against the far Right. And that wing has a different take on the election than does Schock. Here’s John Tillman from the right-wing Illinois Policy Institute…

Romney was attacked all summer long; he did not respond and thus fell behind. His high point was when he went on offense in the first debate. Rather than continuing an aggressive offense after this surge, however, he returned to a passive, defensive posture in an attempt to win over more women and independents. You cannot win from a defensive posture.

Oh, please.

The Republican Party, particularly in this state, is in real danger of turning moderate suburban white women into hardcore Democrats. Time and time again, the GOP has gone out of its way to freak out those women. Eventually, they’ll just turn off their ears entirely to the GOP.

You can’t win statewide in Illinois without moderate suburban women. And you can’t win suburban legislative and congressional races without them, either. The GOP is simply not an hospitable refuge for that demographic.

…Adding… Tribune…

In Illinois, the gender gap among women was even more pronounced, based on exit polling conducted for The Associated Press and the major TV networks. Fully 63 percent of female voters backed Obama to 35 percent for Romney.

Like I said, it’s very bad for the GOP here.

* Also, Latinos…

Obama garnered 71 percent of the Latino vote nationwide compared to Mitt Romney’s 27 percent, according to the exit polls. Romney’s showing among Latinos in 2012 is the worst for a GOP candidate since Bob Dole won 21 percent of the Latino vote in 1996. When President George W. Bush won in 2000, he received 44 percent of the Latino vote, and in 2008 John McCain won 31 percent of the vote.

The Latino population is exploding in Illinois. Yet, the GOP continues to snub them. The party is doomed forever if it doesn’t change its ways. Simple as that.

…Adding… Tribune…

Among the estimated 12 percent of Illinois voters who are Latinos, 81 percent backed Obama compared with only 18 percent for Romney, the exit polls showed.

That’s devastating news for the IL GOP.

* Back to Schock…

“If you know you’re a party that needs to win independent and Democratic voters, you can’t be so strident,” he said. “You can’t just placate the base all the time, ’cause at the end of the day, if you just win Republicans in Illinois, you are going to lose on Election Day.”

He said that means that in the suburbs, Republicans will need to be less socially conservative, while Downstate, they’ll have to show stronger cooperation with unions.

The Downstate union vote derailed Bill Brady’s race against Pat Quinn.

Here again, Schock is talking a good game. But let’s see how his voting record matches up to his rhetoric in the coming months as he ponders a gubernatorial bid.

Look, I just don’t trust DC politicians. Period. They get infected with a hyper-partisan disease that doesn’t work well in state government. Long before he was arrested, Rod Blagojevich governed like he was still sitting on a back bench in Congress. All hype and partisanship all the time. For me, anyway, Schock must overcome this very severe handicap if he wants to run statewide here.

71 Comments

A belated thank you

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* I want to thank everyone who came to my election night party on Tuesday. I heard it was a lot of fun, but I was working most of the time, so I didn’t really get to enjoy it.

Also, many thanks to Google for organizing the event and picking up the tab. That couldn’t have been cheap. And thanks to NBC5 for its active participation.

Pretty much everybody had a great time. A couple were over-served, but that happens with an open bar. No blood, no foul, no arrests. No big deal.

I don’t think I’ll do it again unless we can find a location where I can have a private office. I work on election night, so the party was a huge distraction. Barton Lorimor did a great job for us, but I felt like I was constantly torn between what was going on outside the party and what was going on inside, so I never got a good handle on anything. I hope you weren’t disappointed.

* The party ended at around 11 o’clock. Some of us headed to the Senate Democratic event just down the street. After that party ended, I was walking back to the parking garage when I heard someone behind me say, “Hey! Can I walk with you?”

Now, if you know the State Street block between Kinzie and Hubbard, you also know that it’s populated by some sketchy types. I used to enjoy that block in my younger days because it was so, um, interesting. Now, it’s just kind of a pain. So I kept walking and didn’t turn around.

And then the guy behind me said, “I’ll buy you a cannoli.”

Yes, it was Oswego Willy. He came late to the party and apparently just happened to see me walk by. We went to Mother Hubbard’s for drinks and some of their famous wings and talked for a good, long time. He is as funny and as witty in person as he is here on the blog. I loved every minute of our time together.

This blog just wouldn’t be what it is without people like Oswego Willy and Wordslinger and so many, many others. One day, I want to have a party just for this site’s regular commenters. They could all out themselves to each other. I’m sure it would be a ton of fun.

I have often said that I have the best commenters, bar none, of any blog anywhere in the country. You really make this place what it is. Thanks.

Thanks also to my advertisers. This site is a lot of work, so your support makes it worthwhile. I don’t like to do stuff for free, unless it’s charity, so many, many thanks.

* But most of all, thanks to my subscribers, without whom I wouldn’t be here today. You may have no idea how much I appreciate your support, but just know I’m always overwhelmed at how this endeavor has been such a success. Y’all mean the world to me.

38 Comments

Some big money just didn’t work

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Sunlight Foundation took a look at the best and worst returns on investment for outside groups making independent expenditures. Here is their ist of the top spenders’ best ROI…

SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION PEA-FEDERAL
84% of $15,202,306 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

SEIU COPE (SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION COMMITTEE ON POLITICAL EDUCATION)
70% of $14,318,192 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

MAJORITY PAC
69% of $34,359,657 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

WOMEN VOTE!
69% of $6,072,693 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

* The worst…

NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA POLITICAL VICTORY FUND
0% of $10,955,688 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

AMERICAN CROSSROADS*
1% of $103,559,672 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

* Crossroads GPS had a 13% ROI

US CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
5% of $31,937,037 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

AMERICAN FUTURE FUND
5% of $23,613,532 spent in the general election ended in the desired result.

The NRA’s “Institute for Legislative Action” had a slightly better ROI than its “Political Victory Fund,” at 10.25 percent. The Now Or Never PAC, which played extensively in the Joe Walsh campaign had an ROI of just 14.3 percent. FreedomWorks, which also advertised against Tammy Duckworth, had an ROI of 24.5 percent.

On the other side, Planned Parenthood’s “Action Fund” had a 97.8 percent ROI.

* The 17th Congressional District made it into the top three IE races. The result…

IL-17 (House)
Total outside money: $8,843,981
General candidate fundraising: $4,233,575

Candidate // General election outside support // Candidate fundraising
**winner BUSTOS, CHERI (D) $4,289,889 $1,964,893
SCHILLING, ROBERT T. (R) (Incumbent) $4,543,956 $2,268,682

* The Sun-Times looked at the congressional races by dollars spent per vote. For instance, each vote Walsh won “cost” $70, including IEs. More…

Bill Foster, who ousted longtime Republican Judy Biggert in the west suburban 11th Congressional District, won with the biggest margin, according to vote tallies, with 58 percent of the vote. It cost about $30 per vote for Foster, given the $4.3 million spent by or on his behalf and the 139,849 votes cast for him.

Spending on Biggert’s side exceeded $6.3 million. Ending up with 101,002 ballots cast for her, it averages out to $62 a vote.

Walsh’s challenger, Tammy Duckworth, was a relatively good investment. Duckworth’s totals meant $39 a vote with $4.7 million in spending and 120,774 votes. […]

The closest congressional race of the three was in the 10th Congressional District, where a combination of campaign and outside money added up to $7.5 million for Republican Bob Dold. Dold narrowly lost to challenger Brad Schneider, earning 128,129 votes. That comes out to about $58 per vote for Dold.

By comparison, about $3.9 million went in on Schneider’s side, and he tallied 130,676. That’s about $29 per vote.

19 Comments

Gill still won’t concede, Plummer won’t man up

Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Democrat David Gill has still not yet conceded to Rodney Davis in the 13th Congressional District. But the AP reports that Jason Plummer has finally conceded defeat…

A Republican lumber company executive is conceding defeat in a southern Illinois congressional race.

Jason Plummer made Wednesday’s announcement a day after voters in the 12th Congressional District elected Democrat Bill Enyart, a Belleville lawyer who has headed the Illinois National Guard. The Green Party’s Paula Bradshaw finished third.

Plummer says in a one-paragraph statement e-mailed to The Associated Press that he thanks the thousands of supporters, volunteers and friends who backed his campaign.

He noted that while Democrats have held the seat since World War II, he’s proud of his bid to replace outgoing Democratic Rep. Jerry Costello and hopes “southern Illinoisans can work together the solve the serious problems facing the region.”

I checked with the Bill Enyart campaign again this morning and they have not yet received a concession call from Plummer. So, he may have conceded to the AP, but he has yet to show some class and reach out to the guy who beat him.

Gill, by the way, was said to be “resting” yesterday and “spending time with his family.” He should be more than rested enough today to pick up the phone and call Rodney Davis.