* In case you’re keeping track, today’s $2 million contribution brings the Republican Governors Association’s tally to $6 million since the GOP primary.
* And, of course, the DGA was out with a quick response…
Money speaks for money and now that billionaire Bruce Rauner’s plans to eliminate the minimum wage are out-of-the-bag, it’s time to circle the wagons, and the wine casks. The people of Illinois are seeing through Rauner’s phony “everyman” act and no amount of money will hide the fact that his policies favor the super-rich at the expense of working families.
…Adding… More Friday news…
…Adding More…. That A-1 Rauner filed today included a $1.5 million contribution to himself.
…Adding Still More… Just two weeks ago, Rauner’s campaign was pushing about 500 ratings points a week in Chicago. I’m told by one source that he’s now up to 1,596 points in the city, but told by another that it’s more than that.
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Reader comments closed for the weekend
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Instead of a song today, do yourself a favor and listen to Amanda Vinicky’s “extended version” of her story on Arenzville’s Burgoo festival. I know that might not sound like much, but it’s fine story-telling.
So, click here and, again, scroll down for the extended version. You’ll probably never hear it on the radio.
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* Like I wrote earlier today, both parties do this because it works. And in this case, she has a valid point about using taxpayer funds…
Congressman Bill Foster used thousands of taxpayer dollars to deliver a mailing to his constituents that is a complete misrepresentation. Foster described how unfair it is that some millionaires pay lower tax rates than middle class families. What Congressman Foster failed to disclose was that as one of the 50 wealthiest members of a Congress and a multimillionaire, he paid no taxes in 2011 and when he did pay taxes, he paid a lower rate than most middle class families.
Foster has routinely supported higher taxes on Illinois citizens while refusing to pay his own. It is quite literally the height of hypocrisy.
Foster’s taxpayer-paid mailing blares: “When millionaires can pay a lower tax rate than middle class families, it’s bad for our economy, and it’s just plain wrong.”
Darlene Senger, a single mom and Republican candidate for Congress, said Foster’s misrepresentations are insulting and his use of taxpayer dollars to deceive his own constituents is beyond the pale.
“For one year, Bill Foster paid no income taxes and when he did, even as a multimillionaire, he paid less than middle class Illinois families. And now, he is using taxpayer dollars to denounce the same practice he engaged in without disclosing the facts to his constituents,” said Senger. “The simple truth is Bill Foster is being deeply disingenuous and the voters of the 11th Congressional District deserve better than a taxpayer-funded mail piece littered with misrepresentations.”
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Have we hit bottom yet?
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Earlier this week, a guy working for Bruce Rauner tried to interest me in running a story on Gov. Pat Quinn’s “minimum wage challenge.” Quinn did a fly drive-around this week to promote the challenge, so the Rauner guy wanted to point out that lots of campaign dollars were being spent on the show and wondered why it didn’t factor into his minimum wage spending limit?
I said that was kinda silly. The challenge is mainly about food and other small expenses. Totally symbolic, of course, but bringing up that other stuff just seemed juvenile.
* But the Quinn campaign just made the same sort of argument…
How Many Cases of Wine Can Bruce Rauner Fit In His “Trashcan” Suburban?
CHICAGO - Bruce Rauner was seen stepping out of what appears to be a 2015 LS Model Chevrolet Suburban, despite claiming that he drives a 1990s “trashcan van” in his latest ad.
Here’s the video.
A 2015 LS Suburban has a maximum cargo volume of 121.1 cubic feet.
A case of wine usually has a width of 10 inches, a length of 12 inches, and a height of 12 inches, which had us wondering…
How many cases of wine can fit in Bruce Rauner’s “trashcan” Suburban?
Volume of a 2015 LS Suburban:
121.1 cubic feet = 209, 260.8 cubic inches
Volume of a case of wine:
10 x 12 x 12 = 1,440 cubic inches
209,260.8 / 1,440 = 145.32
That’s right. Bruce Rauner can fit about 145 cases of wine in his Suburban.
Oh, for crying out loud. What does being driven to an event have to do with his beat up old van?
Man, I’m glad it’s Friday.
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Meetings held, no progress yet reported
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Republicans weren’t invited to these meetings, but Sen. Andy Manar’s education funding formula overhaul legislation was the object of several summertime discussions in the House…
A number of top Democratic House lawmakers have been quietly meeting to discuss a proposed overhaul of Illinois’ dated school funding formula, which, if approved, would direct more state money to poorer rural districts at the expense of wealthier suburban districts.
Members of the group told The Associated Press the meetings came at the behest of House Speaker Michael Madigan, whose chamber declined to take up the issue last spring despite its passage by the Senate and widespread calls for the first revamp of the formula in nearly two decades.
“With the specter of additional dollars going away, and that’s a very, very real specter, there has to be a way to allocate money to the districts most in need,” said Rep. Frank Mautino, Madigan’s point person on budget issues. “We have to have something in place to make sure the districts with the highest poverty and least available wealth don’t fold.” […]
Steve Brown, Madigan’s spokesman, said the speaker has not been directly involved but planned to “rely on their work product as it comes along going forward.”
Mautino, whose office is in the same suite as the speaker’s at the capitol, noted that a number of financial issues will play into the school funding formula debate, including whether lawmakers vote to extend the temporary tax hike and the fate of a judicial challenge to the state’s pension crisis solution.
“Nothing exists in a vacuum,” he said.
The reform’s concept is quite good. Base funding on poverty levels. But the practical political problems with this reform are obvious. Some districts are gonna lose state money, so it has to be a very, very gradual transition because there’s no extra money lying around to ween the “losers” off and boost funding for poorer districts.
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* After showing Democrats like Pat Quinn and Mike Frerichs closing the gap in recent days, We Ask America is showing the opposite happening in the US Senate race…
State Sen. Jim Oberweis trails three-term U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin by 10 percentage points in a new Reboot Illinois poll.
Oberweis, a Sugar Grove Republican best known statewide by the family dairy company that bears his name, had trailed Durbin by 13 and 15 points in Reboot Illinois polls on June 12 and July 30. An Aug. 27 poll by the Chicago Sun-Times’ Early & Often political portal, also conducted by We Ask America, found Oberweis trailing Durbin by 7.3 percentage points, 47.8 percent to Oberweis’ 40.5 percent.
The Reboot Illinois poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept. 4, is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,014 likely Illinois voters statewide, including 28 percent of responses from cell phone contacts. It has a margin of error of +/-3.08 percentage points and party split of 38 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans and 36 percent independents.
“After conducting three U.S. Senate polls in 10 days, the results have varied from a 7-point to a 10-point lead for Democrat Dick Durbin,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “While these recent polls show gains in favor of challenger Republican Jim Oberweis, there is still a lot of time left for game-changing movement.”
Sen. Durbin did himself no favors by refusing to release his own poll results the other day.
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The attacks may be working
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* ABC7 Chicago, January 8, 2014…
“Anyone who wants to see more people going back to work should support lowering the minimum wage,” John Tilman, Illinois Policy Institute, said.
* Now, compare that tone to ABC7 Chicago’s report yesterday…
At the Conservative Illinois Policy Institute to which Rauner is a major contributor, Ted Dabrowski said raising the minimum wage does not address the state’s real problem.
“What’s the best way to help those who can’t get jobs? And what’s the best way to create jobs rather than be talking about the minimum wage per se?” Dabrowski said.
…Adding… From John Tillman…
Hi, Rich,
Hope you had a good summer. To be clear, our position has not changed on min wage. The more recent comments were in context of Rauner’s blueprint release, not an alteration of our position.
See link for our position - same as it has always been.
http://www.illinoispolicy.org/analysis-of-gop-gubernatorial-candidate-bruce-rauners-bring-back-blueprint/
John
I never said the position changed, just the tone.
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Our collective inferiority complex
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune…
“It’s so Illinois.”
The tweet picking up steam on the Internet Friday morning was not alluding to the state’s prairie farmlands, Chicago sports teams or even hot dogs without ketchup.
Instead, Illinois immediately popped into one scholar’s mind when asked to reflect on the corruption revealed during the scandalous trial of former Virginia Gov. Robert McDonnell and his wife, Maureen, who were found guilty of numerous offenses Thursday.
* The quote…
“I think Jefferson would be appalled that in his own commonwealth, this guy could be gifted a Ferrari [ride]. It’s so Illinois or Louisiana,” said Clay Jenkinson, a renowned humanities scholar and expert on Thomas Jefferson who hosts a radio show called “The Thomas Jefferson Hour.”
* I searched Twitter for the phrase “It’s so Illinois” and came up with 17 hits as of this writing.
Yep, 17. But that warrants a story in the Trib.
Besides, who cares what some guy in Virginia says? StateIntegrity.org gives Virginia an “F” for risk of corruption. Illinois got a “C.”
So, bite us, dude.
…Adding… Not to mention, we haven’t had an Illinois governor as thoroughly and openly corrupt as Virginia’s McDonnell since Gov. Small in the 1920s. McDonnell was absolutely brazen. He made Rod Blagojevich look like a statesman.
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* From the Bruce Rauner campaign earlier this morning…
Day 8: No Quinn Response on Illegal Hires
It’s been more than a week since Pat Quinn began dodging questions about dozens of illegally hired patronage cronies who remain in state jobs. These are the same illegal hires that denied hard-working Illinoisans – especially our veterans – the opportunity to compete for state jobs.
Who is Pat Quinn protecting? Why are dozens of illegally hired cronies still working in the Quinn administration?
* The campaign also pointed to this News-Gazette editorial…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has challenged Quinn’s enthusiasm for correcting the abuses that occurred during his tenure as well as that of his predecessor Rod Blagojevich. Rauner says “dozens” who were hired illegally remain on the IDOT payroll in contravention of Quinn’s order to clean house, suggesting that those with more clout were protected while those with less were sacrificed for public relations purposes. […]
Gov. Quinn has admitted that what occurred on his watch was inappropriate and pledged to put an end to the wrongdoing. If he does not follow through on his promise [to clean house], the damage to his credibility will be significant.
* The governor was pressed again on the matter today…
Obviously, he knows there are still “tainted” folks on the IDOT payroll. It’s a dodge, but it buys him some time.
*** UPDATE *** Rauner campaign…
Quinn Doesn’t Deny Illegal Hires Still at IDOT
“While Pat Quinn is unwilling to fire his illegal patronage hires, Illinois voters will get a chance to fire Pat Quinn in November.” – Rauner spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
Earlier this morning, Pat Quinn was confronted about dozens of illegally hired patronage cronies who remain in state jobs. Despite dancing around a series of questions, Quinn never denied the facts. Instead, he said he would ask his new transportation secretary to “review it.”
Review it? Pat Quinn told the people of Illinois he had already reviewed it and led the people of Illinois to believe that he took decisive action.
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On wine, wealth and bipartisan bashing
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Eric Zorn…
Gov. Pat Quinn’s campaign is arguing this week that his Republican challenger Bruce Rauner’s membership in an exclusive California wine club is evidence that Rauner is “out of touch” with “hardworking Illinois families.”
I disagree.
I think it’s evidence that Rauner is out of touch with reality.
Zorn then goes on to describe several studies which had similar results. For instance…
A French experimenter asked more than 50 wine experts to evaluate and compare a glass of red wine and a glass of white wine in 2001. None noticed that the “red” wine was just the white wine with few dots of food coloring in it.
Conclusion…
Of course some wines are objectively better than others — smoother, more flavorful and so on.
But the correlation between price and quality is so demonstrably weak that you have to question the judgment of anyone, no matter how rich, who spends tens of thousands of dollars and more on the liquid equivalent of astrological forecasts.
* John Kass addresses it as well…
Lately, Quinn has been slamming Rauner for paying six figures to belong to a fancy wine club. What Quinn deftly forgets to mention is that Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a Democrat, was in that revealing photo toting Rauner’s bottle of pricey wine.
His conclusion…
A guy that rich can’t be bought. And Illinois is drowning in the backwash of big government sins. If something isn’t done soon to cut spending, we’ll all be on a raft floating toward Texas.
So is Rauner too wealthy to be governor?
I’d say no.
Except Rauner keeps saying he wants to increase spending by billions on education, infrastructure, IDNR, etc.
* CNBC’s Robert Frank writes about the wine club, as well as other races around the country featuring wealthy candidates…
The new scarlet letter in politics is “R”—as in “Rich.”
From Hillary Clinton to congressional, gubernatorial and state-legislature candidates around the country, wealthy candidates are getting pummeled on the campaign trail because of their large fortunes. Once seen as symbols of the American dream, today’s wealthy candidates are trying desperately (and often awkwardly) to deny their wealth and appear as middle class, everyday Americans. […]
Even before the current election cycle, millionaire candidates weren’t faring well. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, 263 millionaire candidates who put at least $500,000 of their own money into their campaigns have run for congressional office since 2002. But 84 percent of them lost.
In 2012, of the 48 millionaire self-funded candidates who ran for congressional office, only 12 won.
As the Center for Responsive Politics said, “Though they don’t lack for money, self-funded candidates typically lose at the polls.”
* Rauner is clearly a different breed of rich candidate. But you can plainly see how effective this attack is by simply looking at what the Republicans have been doing to Hillary Clinton over the past few months.
John Kass engaged in it himself not long ago…
Hillary stands for people who are “dead broke” but also have multiple homes.
She bragged about it to a purring Diane Sawyer of ABC News, saying she really knows what it’s like to struggle. It happened when her husband, former President Bill Clinton, left the White House.
Will someone have the decency to please cue the sad violin as Hillary recounts the ordeal of the multiple homes?
And remember, Democrat Brad Schneider was hit in a recent radio ad for being one of the wealthiest members of Congress. Also, Dick Durbin has been repeatedly derided as a “millionaire” by none other than his millionaire opponent.
The issue is used by both sides because it works. Plain and simple. Ergo Rauner’s efforts to highlight his $18 watch, Carhartt jacket and beat up old van.
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Poll: Cross down to single digits
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* It looks like suburban Cook and Chicago are reverting to form. As we saw earlier this week, Gov. Pat Quinn is now slightly ahead in suburban Cook in a We Ask America poll, the first time that’s happened all year.
And a new We Ask America poll also shows significant tightening in the state treasurer’s race. Rep. Tom Cross’ lead has slipped from 21 11 down to just six points. He’s now leading 43-37.
The sample was more Democratic than the firm’s recent Quinn poll, which could account for some of the slippage. Cross did around as well in the new poll as in the July poll with Downstate and collar county voters. The real changes are in Chicago and Cook…
* Chicago, July: Frerichs 52, Cross 25, Undecided 23
* Chicago, September: Frerichs 57, Cross 17, Skopek 4, Undecided 22
* Suburban Cook, July: Cross 45, Frerichs 34, Undecided 20
* Suburban Cook, September: Frerichs 44, Cross 36, Skopek 5, Undecided 15
Most of those Chicago undecideds will break toward Frerichs, and so will a substantial amount of the suburban Cook vote.
So, Frerichs is likely in the hunt, and that million dollars he’s planning to spend on TV won’t hurt at all.
* Meanwhile, Tom Kacich had a fascinating angle on the endorsement of Cross by the Illinois Chamber this week…
Cross, a state representative and the former leader of the Illinois House Republicans, Thursday renewed his pledge as treasurer to prepare a quarterly report on the state’s financial condition, to establish a government integrity unit in his office and to require the Legislature to pass a balanced budget. If it doesn’t, he said he would file a lawsuit.
“We’re in unprecedented times. We’ve seen from a financial standpoint a state that’s close to collapse and I think we need to use these offices in nontraditional ways,” Cross said.
He said he wouldn’t hesitate to file suit if a Republican Legislature passed or a Republican governor signed a budget that was out of balance. He declined to comment on whether he thought Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner’s budget proposal was balanced.
Emphasis added for obvious reasons. No way could Cross back up Rauner’s numbers without losing all credibility.
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* Natasha Korecki…
Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner, under the gun this week for admitting he belongs to an exclusive wine club that costs upward of $100,000 to join after portraying himself as the frugal $18 watch wearer, had a new everyday Joe ad teed up.
In this one, Rauner talks about his “trashcan van,” which he says he’s owned for 20 years — with “almost 200,000 miles.”
“I’ll live in Springfield, sell that state plane and drive my van to work because the Capital needs a good trash can,” Rauner says in the ad, chiding Gov. Pat Quinn for using a state plane to fly to Springfield.
* The ad…
* DGA response…
This is from the phony with a $100,000 extra parking spot. The ad is as insulting as it is incredulous. Voters beware.
*** UPDATE *** Quinn campaign…
“Mr. Rauner’s attempt to deceive voters into not thinking that he’s an out of touch billionaire with 9 homes and a $140,000+ wine club membership is offensive. But it’s not as offensive as the fact that his policies always benefit the very wealthy at the expense of the rest of us, whether it’s his heartless belief that the minimum wage should be eliminated or his plan to tax consumption of food and medicine. We don’t think voters will be fooled.”
Food and medicine taxes? A new front against Rauner appears to be opening.
*** UPDATE 2 *** The Rauner campaign responds to the food and medicine tax allegation…
This is a lie. Bruce’s growth plan only modernizes how we treat services - not goods like food and medicine. And in fact, Bruce explicitly said that he would exempt “medical services” and “day-to-day items like Laundromats, day care centers, barber shops and animal care.”
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Take that, Hoosiers!
Friday, Sep 5, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the US Appellate Court’s unanimous opinion yesterday that Indiana’s and Wisconsin’s gay marriage bans are unconstitutional…
Indiana has thus invented an insidious form of discrimination: favoring first cousins, provided they are not of the same sex, over homosexuals. Elderly first cousins are permitted to marry because they can’t produce children; homosexuals are forbidden to marry because they can’t produce children. The state’s argument that a marriage of first cousins who are past child-bearing age provides a “model [of] family life for younger, potentially procreative men and women” is impossible to take seriously.
At oral argument the state‘s lawyer was asked whether “Indiana’s law is about successfully raising children,” and since “you agree same-sex couples can successfully raise children, why shouldn’t the ban be lifted as to them?” The lawyer answered that “the assumption is that with opposite-sex couples there is very little thought given during the sexual act, sometimes, to whether babies may be a consequence.” In other words, Indiana’s government thinks that straight couples tend to be sexually irresponsible, producing unwanted children by the carload, and so must be pressured (in the form of governmental encouragement of marriage through a combination of sticks and carrots) to marry, but that gay couples, unable as they are to produce children wanted or unwanted, are model parents—model citizens really—so have no need for marriage. Heterosexuals get drunk and pregnant, producing unwanted children; their reward is to be allowed to marry. Homosexual couples do not produce unwanted children; their reward is to be denied the right to marry. Go figure.
Oof.
Judge Richard Posner wrote the opinion, naturally.
* By the way, Gov. Pat Quinn weighed in on the decision yesterday…
“This ruling is another victory for all people of our great country.
“In Illinois, we do not discriminate when it comes to love and marriage. Since the marriage equality went into effect in our state in June, couples across the Land of Lincoln have been able to marry freely and equally.
“We won’t stop until everyone in America has those same rights and protections under law. We set a model for the country in Illinois and now Wisconsin and Indiana will become the 20th and 21st states to enact marriage equality.
“Our country was founded on the desire to embrace all people and today is another step forward.”
* As did Equality Illinois…
The unanimous U.S. Court of Appeals ruling today in Chicago for the freedom to marry was a clarion call for Midwestern political leaders including Bruce Rauner of Illinois to end their stubborn opposition to marriage equality.
Equality Illinois demands that Bruce Rauner, the Republican nominee for governor, apologize for his pledge to repeal marriage rights and declare that he supports full marriage equality for same-sex couples.
“Bruce Rauner cannot hide behind his ‘no social agenda’ rhetoric when he has said clearly on the record that he would have vetoed the Illinois Religious Freedom and Marriage Fairness Act had he been governor,” said Bernard Cherkasov, CEO of Equality Illinois, the state’s oldest and largest civil rights organization advocating for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender Illinoisans.[…]
“The U.S. Court of Appeals spoke unequivocally in declaring that marriage discrimination hurts families, harms children, and is ultimately unconstitutional. Bruce Rauner’s explanations in defending his opposition to marriage rights are exactly what the court unanimously rejected, and it is both irrational and unconstitutional,” Cherkasov said.
“These political leaders do not have to wait for a further ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court to act. Gov. Pat Quinn and a majority of the Illinois House and Senate understood that when they passed the freedom to marry in Illinois,” said Cherkasov. “If Bruce Rauner doesn’t have the conviction to do what is right for families and children, then he doesn’t have what it takes to be the governor of the Land of Lincoln.”
No response yet from the Rauner camp.
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* During a hearing in Springfield today, Sangamon County Judge John Belz said the pension reform case should be fast-tracked because of the Supreme Court’s decision that government employee health insurance premiums were protected by the state Constitution and couldn’t be raised. Kurt Erickson has details…
Belz told attorneys gathered for a hearing Thursday that the court’s decision in the health insurance case was like “an elephant in the room.”
“I can’t stick my head in sand and act like it isn’t there,” Belz said. […]
“As fast as we can move it along within reason the better,” Belz said.
“This can be wrapped up by the end of this year,” said attorney John Fitzgerald, who represents a group of retired teachers.
…Adding… From We Are One Illinois…
“Our members had an encouraging day in court, and we’re hopeful that this will be resolved soon in our favor. The Kanerva decision confirmed our long held belief that the pension protection clause of the constitution is absolute and without exception.”
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* I really like the visual quality of Bobby Schilling’s new TV ad…
* Script…
Bobby Schilling: “I know these roads—lived here my whole life. I know our people, our places, and our perseverance. I know our struggles—and our successes. This is my home. This is where Christie and I are raising our 10 kids. It’s where I started our family restaurant. I know first-hand how Washington makes it hard for families and workers, and I want to stop it. I’m Bobby Schilling, and I approve this message because I know we’re all on this road together.”
*** UPDATE *** From the Cheri Bustos campaign…
“Bobby Schilling’s first ad is a blatant attempt to hide the ‘Real Bobby Schilling’s’ record of putting the Tea Party first and Illinois middle class families last. In Congress, Schilling voted to protect tax breaks for corporations that ship jobs overseas, to end the Medicare guarantee for seniors and walked out of a public meeting with workers whose jobs were shipped to China. Now he’s making a six figure salary working for one of his campaign contributors helping wealthy Chinese businessmen game the immigration system. If this is what he means by ‘leading by example’ Illinois working families will reject him once again this November.”
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* Cumulus, which owns several Chicago radio stations including WLS, has decided to no longer air a radio ad paid for by the New Prosperity Foundation which targeted Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider. We discussed the group’s two radio ads yesterday. The offending line was this…
Finally, last month, after promising to release his tax returns, Schneider offered the public only a one-page summary that hides his wealth and then barred reporters from obtaining the actual return, like nearly every other member of Congress does.”
* But the Schneider campaign pointed to several media stories like this one…
Both U.S. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-10th) and his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Robert Dold, have released their 2013 tax returns to the Journal & Topics Newspapers.
So, the ad came down, but you can still listen to it here if you want…
No response yet from the New Prosperity Foundation.
…Adding… From Staci McCabe at the Schneider campaign…
“This false ad goes down as just another example of Republicans willing to say anything to elect their reliable Republican ally Bob Dold.”
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Crossover appeal
Thursday, Sep 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Two new Reboot polls…
* Jesse White leads 61-26-5, with 7 percent undecided
* Lisa Madigan leads 54-30-5, with 7 percent undecided
White’s support among Republicans is 37 percent and he’s getting 55 percent of independents. Madigan is supported by 23 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of independents. Madigan’s opponent doesn’t have the cash to change that dynamic, but isn’t giving up. From a press release…
Republican Attorney General Candidate Paul Schimpf held a press conference [yesterday] and called on Attorney General Lisa Madigan to recuse herself from giving legal advice on all matters involving the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative (“NRI”). Madigan has told the media that she doesn’t believe she has a conflict of interest.
“Ms. Madigan’s inability to understand that there is a conflict of interest in this situation calls into question her competence to serve as Attorney General for the State of Illinois,” said Schimpf. “Her belief is contrary to the fundamentals of practicing law as defined by the Illinois Rules of Professional Conduct Rule 1.7 on Conflicts of Interest. Ms. Madigan, as Attorney General, was in a position to provide oversight on this program and failed to do so – a fact not in dispute. She is a material witness in the investigation of the failed Neighborhood Recovery Initiative and needs to recuse herself as soon as possible in this matter.”
There’s been little to no coverage of AG Madigan’s role in NRI. She was, indeed, on the board that oversaw the program. A bit more is here.
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Insidery campaign stuff
Thursday, Sep 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz takes a look at Gov. Quinn’s field operation…
Meet Nellie Sires, a “proud resident of Rogers Park since 2004″ — and the field director of Mr. Quinn’s re-election campaign. Over the next two months, her job is to ignore the daily back and forth of the brawl with GOP nominee Bruce Rauner and, using the latest analytics and tracking methods, identify millions of Quinn fans and potential Quinn fans and get them to the polls. […]
Over coffee, she told me that Mr. Quinn hopes to replicate much of the neighbor-on-neighbor style of organizing that Barack Obama used so successfully in 2008 and 2012.
The model depends on first using the state’s database of roughly 7.3 million registered voters and then figuring out which ones are most open to Mr. Quinn’s message.
To do so, the campaign is employing a variety of high and low tech, everything from working closely with Chicago political leaders, especially in African-American wards, and hiring a Chicago- and Washington-based “big data” company, Civis Analytics, which built the Quinn campaign’s model.
* Meanwhile, WBEZ has been running a series of stories about political types who are rarely profiled. From the station’s opposition research piece…
“You don’t win races by just telling people what a wonderful person you are,” said Dennis Gragert, a veteran Democratic opposition researcher based in Chicago.
Gragert and several other opposition researchers say they abide by the rules and ethics of what’s fair game. Most important, they say attacks against a candidate must be verifiably true, and they can’t be too personal or you could face a backlash, like with the hairdresser ad. Every oppo researcher contacted for this story said they had turned down work that required them to dig up information about an opponent they thought was too personal.
All in all, the opposition researchers who spoke with WBEZ say they sleep just fine at night, because all those negative ads actually work, even if voters say they hate them.
Still, even Gragert does betray a moment of empathy.
“Sometimes I think about, if that was me on the other end, would I like that?” he said. “All right, that’s not for me to like, it is - it is reality. It’s not something where you say, well that shouldn’t be the case. That is the case.”
* Voice-over artists…
“When you’re doing voice-over work, it’s almost as though you have no life, when you’re doing political campaigns,” said Wanda Christine Hudson, who has been doing voice-over work for more than four decades.
Wanda Christine - as she’s known professionally - says working campaigns is a lot different than her usual commercial or video game voice-over gigs: Political season means abruptly cancelled lunch plans, sleeping by your phone and voicing ads in the dead of night.
* Pollsters…
“Good pollsters don’t tell a candidate what to say,” McGrath said. “The political graveyard is scattered with failed candidates who try to be something they weren’t. And it’s not in our interest to use a poll to tell somebody to be something they’re not.”
McGrath says voters can sense when candidates are faking it. And dishonesty doesn’t poll very well.
I know you’re busy, but all of the above pieces are worth a full read.
…Adding… A few more stories from Campaigns & Elections…
* Is Twitter ruining young press operatives?: Far too often, operatives are lured into snarky back-and-forth Twitter duels that seem all-important and exciting, but fail the most basic test of campaigns. How does this get me votes? If it doesn’t get you votes, it doesn’t matter.
* Searching through the attack ads: When campaigns deluge television viewers with an inescapable 30-second ad, campaigns usually see a subsequent spike in searches online concerning that message. Research conducted in 2012 found that 64 percent of persuadable voters had used a search engine to fact-check claims made by political candidates.
* 5 essential practices for reaching inboxes
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* From the twitters…
* Rauner campaign response…
“We didn’t know a person’s income level was a qualification for office. Pat Quinn thinks only corrupt career politicians who have screwed up Springfield for decades are qualified to lead our state. The people of Illinois know better than that.” - Rauner spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
* The Question: On a scale of one to four, with four being the best, please rate the Rauner campaign response. Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
survey services
*** UPDATE *** Vallas has walked back his comment…
Later, Vallas sought to clarify his comments, telling the Tribune in an interview that it was not Rauner’s wealth that should disqualify him as governor but that “his wealth informs his policies.”
“Whether it’s his promising to eliminate the minimum wage, or taxing consumption, or slashing funding for public schools, it’s clear who Bruce Rauner benefits in his policies,” Vallas said. “It’s that his wealth and his experiences seem to be driving and seem to be informing his policies.”
“My problem isn’t the wealth, my problem is that his policies are being driven by his wealth and driven by his private business practices. That’s my fundamental problem with Bruce Rauner and the approach he is taking and it’s in stark contrast with what drives Pat Quinn.”
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And here it is again…
Thursday, Sep 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
The Illinois State Chamber of Commerce, one of the oldest statewide business organizations in the nation, is issuing its first ever endorsement for the office of Treasurer and is backing Republican candidate Tom Cross. Illinois State Chamber of Commerce CEO Todd Maisch said Cross’ commitment to balancing the budget and fighting corruption will serve taxpayers and employers well.
“Tom Cross has distinguished himself as a leader in the fight for responsible, accountable government,” said Maisch. “As House Republican Leader, he fought for common sense lawsuit reform, worked to reduce burdensome regulations and vigorously opposed the Quinn income tax increase. Tom Cross is exactly the type of Treasurer we need to protect taxpayers. Cross’ plans to demand a balanced budget, and take on corruption and fraud are among the reasons we took the historic step of endorsing him for Treasurer.”
* But check out the main subject matter of the Mike Frerichs campaign response…
Rep. Tom Cross is the ultimate Springfield insider, voting over the past 20 years with the special interests and against the interests of Illinois families. In return, lobbyists showered Tom Cross with more than $22,000 in free meals in recent years, but those meals were likely cooked and served by minimum wage workers whose income isn’t keeping up with rising costs thanks to Tom Cross who has opposed raising the minimum wage three times.
Now we know that Tom Cross’ closest ally and one of his biggest donors, Bruce Rauner, would abolish the minimum wage altogether if he could. Those are not the values that Mike Frerichs was raised with in Central Illinois or that he will bring to the Treasurer’s office.
The Illinois Chamber of Commerce is part of a group of business interests that are working against raising the minimum wage from $8.25 to $10.00 in Illinois. Rep. Tom Cross has not voted to raise the minimum wage three times in his 20-year Springfield career (2003, 2006, and 2014). If Rep. Cross had his way, the minimum wage in Illinois would still be $5.15 as it was in 2003 when he first voted against raising it.
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* Earlier this morning, we discussed Brian Mackey’s column which contained some quotes from Bruce Rauner about the government’s role in the economy. He made those remarks during a 2011 panel discussion. A labor union source found another Rauner quote from that same panel. The pre-candidate was asked “Could you talk about the increasingly unequal distribution of wealth in this country?” Rauner’s response…
“You know, we can complain about it, we can try to tax more, redistribute income, whatever. Or encourage more unionization, which is, or raise the uh, another standard one, let’s raise the minimum wage.
“Those are all in a lot of ways counter-productive, in my opinion.”
Video…
Like I told you yesterday, prepare to hear more about this issue as the campaign progresses, not less.
The full video is here. The above quote starts around the 1 hour, 28 minute mark. But what the union guy didn’t include was the last part of the quote…
“What it’s really about is education.”
Rauner was arguing that education was important to the knowledge-base economy. He’s right about that part, although I don’t see how cutting state and local revenues will accomplish his goals. But, whatever, the rest of his comment opens him up yet again to claims that he’s a heartless plutocrat.
By the way, Rauner also said there’s “a financial tumor growing” in the nation, caused by public sector unions.
* Meanwhile, apparently the Illinois economy didn’t crash in the late 00’s because the world economy crashed. Nope, it crashed because the state gradually raised its minimum wage…
The minimum wage in Illinois rose four times between 2006 and 2010. Unemployment rates climbed, along with home foreclosures and the number of families living in extreme poverty.
The rest of the column is pretty good, though…
They know that state and federal welfare programs punish workers who move up the pay scale. Federal benefits for housing assistance or food stamps or day care start to drop off once someone is earning about $22,000 a year. Take a promotion, and you’ll lose your child care subsidy. It makes no sense.
The politicians here and in Washington, D.C., know that affordable housing is a scarcity. They know expanding the earned income tax credit to younger workers would put real money into the pockets of the working poor.
They know that reducing mandatory minimum prison sentences for nonviolent drug offenders and giving businesses more incentives to hire people with criminal records would enable millions of men and women to better care for their families. The Tribune’s Jon Yates recently wrote of a man who didn’t qualify for the Chicago Transit Authority’s ex-offender apprenticeship program because his criminal record wasn’t current enough. Yes. True story.
* And, on a related note, from the twitters…
That’s two, two Illinois ballot issues in one, in case you’re keeping score at home.
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Unclear on the concepts
Thursday, Sep 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* WICS TV…
The legislators in charge of the investigation into Gov. Pat Quinn’s anti-violence program say they have not received all the emails they subpoenaed in July.
This morning, the Legislative Audit Commission went to the Department of Central Management Service in Springfield to supervise the search, and to make sure they can get all the information.
But the Governor’s Office told them they cannot access the system because of attorney-client privilege. […]
The Legislative Audit Commission says despite the setback, they will continue to pursue the emails. The federal investigation into the program is also reviewing emails as well.
Actually, no. The Legislative Audit Commission officially said no such thing, and it was a single member, GOP state Rep. David Reis, who went to CMS yesterday…
Rep. David Reis, R-Willow Hill, was not given access to state email systems by officials at the state Department of Central Management Services, who cited state and federal law and security concerns as the basis for their decision.
“The governor’s office and Gov. Quinn himself have repeatedly stated that they want to be open and transparent, and that anyone involved with this failed program should be open and forthcoming,” Reis said in a prepared statement. “What we witnessed today was a denial of my rights as a legislator to review state records. Quinn’s people are not following his own orders.”
Legislators do have some privileged rights, but, as we’ve discussed before, they can’t just break the law…
A CMS spokeswoman confirmed a visit by Reis and an accompanying computer forensic analyst to the agency’s Springfield offices Wednesday that lasted “several minutes” but referred questions to a letter acting CMS Director Simone McNeil sent to Reis on Tuesday.
“As a matter of security and because federal and state laws protect much of the information we possess, we cannot legally grant you or your expert access to our email systems,” McNeil wrote in her letter to him.
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* Brian Mackey in Illinois Issues magazine…
Rauner insists his proposals — including a gradual roll-back of the income tax hike, restrictions on lawsuits and an expansion of the sales tax to include some services — would spur growth in the number of jobs. [Richard Dye, an economist with the University of Illinois’ Institute of Government and Public Affairs] says it’s possible for tax policy changes to sometimes — “not generally, but sometimes” — have an effect on jobs. But there are many other factors that more directly affect a state’s employment: “the overall economic condition, the capital stock and education level of the state, the national economy, incentives by other states, and so on,” Dye says. “All things that are beyond the governor’s control.”
So why do candidates claim prowess in job creation? “The advantage to the candidate is that most people don’t read the economics literature,” Dye says. “There is this vague association [between] the time a particular politician is in power and what happens to the economy.” Lubotsky amplifies this point, acknowledging that job claims would be useful to candidates for advertising purposes: “They can’t go out and say, ‘You should vote for me, but honestly, what I do won’t have much of an effect.’ ”
He’s right. Few politicians would make such a statement. But a private citizen might.
Back in 2011, years before he declared his candidacy for governor, Rauner participated in a panel discussion at Dartmouth College on the future of the U.S. economy. After nearly an hour, conversation turned to the risky investor behavior that led to the Great Recession and the federal government’s role in regulating financial markets. Another panelist asked Rauner: “We had a giant financial crisis in which the financial sector caused a huge recession that haunts us to this day … shouldn’t we try and fix some of the problems that created the situation?”
Rauner said the government was making things worse. Then — and this is the key moment — he opined on the nature of large economies: “We’re talking about free markets. Markets are cyclical. Get over it. We’re not going to predict it. We’re not going to stop it. We’re not going to control it. That’s what it is.”
Rauner 2011 acknowledged that economic downturns are inevitable and opined that governments can do nothing to control them. Rauner 2014, however, seeks to blame Quinn for not taking the right steps to address Illinois’ economic woes. Rather than telling voters to “get over it,” he’s attempting to harness their anger to propel him into high office.
Discuss.
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* The DCCC is using clips from the infamous video of Rep. Mike Blost blowing up on the House floor against him. Pretty effective, if you ask me…
* Script…
Bost: These damn bills that come out of here all the damn time…
Announcer: Mike Bost keeps melting down in Springfield
Bost: … you should be ashamed of yourselves. I’m sick of it.
Announcer: Now Bost wants to be in Congress.
Bost: Enough! I feel like somebody trying to be released from Egypt. Let my people go!
Announcer: He’d make Washington … worse.
*** UPDATE *** RNCC response…
Nancy Pelosi’s campaign arm, the DCCC, is up on TV today with a new ad highlighting Mike Bost’s dedicated service to his constituents. As most Southern Illinois families know, Springfield is a disaster and under the Quinn-Madigan machine, folks are suffering. Thankfully, Mike Bost has been a leader in Springfield and has stood up to the Democratic cronies who try to push large tax hikes and bills that are bad for the state through with zero transparency.
Bost said enough is enough. Hopefully the DCCC will continue to run these ads which highlight Bost’s dedication and hard work.
NRCC Statement: “You can tell this TV ad was made by folks in DC who are out-of-touch with what’s really happening in Southern Illinois. While Nancy Pelosi may think Mike Bost’s dedicated service is strange, the families that have continued to vote for him throughout the years appreciate his passion and efforts to keep Pat Quinn’s toxic agenda out of Southern Illinois.” – Katie Prill, NRCC Spokeswoman
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Quinn again dodges the question
Thursday, Sep 4, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Umm…
Asked if all the [IDOT] employees whose hiring aroused concern had been fired, Quinn insisted he had addressed the matter.
“I acted on that the moment I learned about that,” he said. “I appointed a new secretary of transportation to carry out the rules exactly as they should be.”
That wasn’t even in the ballpark of a straight answer. There are dozens, maybe hundreds of those folks still on the state payroll. The Rauner campaign pounced…
In fact, Quinn has not acted. Dozens of illegal hires still remain in positions at IDOT. And Quinn refuses to explain how his subversion of veterans hiring preferences is any different than Rod Blagojevich’s. […]
”Pat Quinn clearly has no intention of ending illegal patronage inside his administration; he’s just waiting until November to ratchet up the corruption. At a time of record job losses and sky-high veterans unemployment, Pat Quinn cares more about keeping his cronies happy than letting Illinois workers compete for state jobs.” - Rauner campaign spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
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* Just imagine the TV ad this’ll inspire…
In a newly unearthed radio interview, Republican private equity investor Bruce Rauner admitted earlier this year that he once favored the outright elimination of Illinois’ minimum wage. […]
While acknowledging that he once supported an elimination of the minimum wage, Rauner said later in that Jan. 10, 2014, interview on Bloomington-based WJBC-AM that either ending or reducing the state’s minimum wage to the lower national standard, as he advocated during a candidates’ forum in the Quad Cities last December, was ill-advised on his part.
“I have said, on a number of occasions, that we could have a lower minimum wage or no minimum wage as part of increasing Illinois’ competitiveness. I’ve said that many times,”
“It’s a mistake for me to focus on lowering the minimum wage or eliminating it because there are better ways to increase Illinois’ competitiveness,” Rauner said at the time.
Yeah, he claimed his earlier position was a “mistake,” but he said what he said and it’s now fair game.
* I was out with a totally non-political friend last night who makes the minimum wage caring for the developmentally disabled at a central Illinois group home. I received a text from the governor’s campaign about the story and read Rauner’s quote aloud.
It didn’t go over well. At all. The first thing my friend said was, “That’s just great, I’m getting a pay cut.”
* Raw audio. Start listening at about the one-minute point…
*** UPDATE 1 *** From the DGA…
“This is the most revealing moment of Bruce Rauner’s candidacy. Throughout this campaign he has been a master of disguise - veiling his elitist and exploitative philosophies with flannel shirts and a cheap watch. But Rauner can’t hide from his own damning advocacy against real people living from paycheck to paycheck. By supporting the elimination of the minimum wage, Bruce Rauner has distinguished himself as the most dangerous candidate that Illinois’ working families have ever seen.”
From the Quinn campaign…
“We’re not surprised to learn that Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner advocated to eliminate the minimum wage this year.
“This is his real position, the one he’s trying to hide from voters to get elected.
“While Mr. Rauner originally said his comment about cutting the minimum wage was ‘flippant,’ this little-noticed audio clip proves otherwise. This is the real Bruce Rauner and this is what he truly believes.
“Whether he’s dropping $140,000 on a luxury wine membership or pushing to eliminate the minimum wage, Bruce Rauner is the most out-of-touch candidate for Governor in Illinois history.”
No major-party gubernatorial candidate in modern Illinois history has openly advocated for eliminating the minimum wage. Bruce Rauner is an out-of-touch Republican billionaire who got rich at the expense of the rest of us. His plan for Illinois would benefit the very wealthy like him while hurting working people. Bruce Rauner isn’t looking out for us.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Illinois Freedom PAC…
Rauner Again Caught Lying About Minimum Wage Position
Chicago, IL - This morning the Chicago Sun Times reports on billionaire Bruce Rauner’s admission he has advocated for eliminating the minimum wage on multiple occasions. Rauner made the admission during a January 10th radio interview with WBJC and also said he’d advocated for lowering the minimum wage. From today’s Sun Times …
“I have said, on a number of occasions, that we could have a lower minimum wage or no minimum wage as part of increasing Illinois’ competitiveness. I’ve said that many times,” Rauner told WJBC host Scott Laughlin.
However, he told the Chicago Sun Times at the very same time that he’d never called for cutting the minimum wage. From the January Sun Times piece…
“I never said that. I said we should tie the minimum wage in Illinois to the national minimum wage. I didn’t use numbers. I didn’t use $7.25. I didn’t say any of that,” Rauner said.
“Billionaire Bruce Rauner has been exposed once again for his blatant, repeated falsehoods and his disdain for hard working families,” said Neal Waltmire, Communications Director for Illinois Freedom PAC.
Rauner has been caught giving false and misleading statements when it comes to his budget, his outsourcing record, his Cayman Islands accounts, and the clout scandal involving his daughter’s admission to an elite public school.
*** UPDATE 3 *** IFT President Dan Montgomery…
“The more voters learn about the Real Rauner, the less we like,” said Dan Montgomery, President of the IFT and a high school English teacher of nearly 20 years. “The news that Bruce Rauner favors eliminating the minimum wage is appalling and demonstrates how completely out of touch the billionaire is with working families. He talks a good game in his empty TV commercials, but Bruce Rauner owes Illinois voters a real explanation for this extreme position and his fairy tale budget proposal, which would blow an $8-billion dollar hole in the state budget and force larger class sizes and devastating cuts to our public schools. Illinois families deserve better.”
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* Rick Pearson is a state treasure…
Local property taxes have long been among the most unpopular forms of taxation. In 1978, then-Gov. Jim Thompson engineered a nonbinding ballot proposal called the “Thompson proposition” that proposed limits on state and local taxes. It also served as a driver for voter turnout in Thompson’s first re-election campaign, though no action was taken.
Charles Wheeler, a longtime statehouse reporter and professor of public affairs reporting at the University of Illinois at Springfield, questioned whether the lack of details from the Rauner camp on the property tax [freeze] and other issues were part of a “cynical” election strategy.
“I can’t believe they’re as uninformed as these things make them sound. It has to be they’re counting on the rest of us being uninformed and taking this nonsense at face value,” Wheeler said.
“Do they want to freeze the levy, freeze the rate, freeze assessments?” Wheeler asked. “How much money does the state get from property taxes? How much goes to the state? Nothing — not a penny.”
Go read the whole thing. Good, solid stuff.
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Frerichs reserves $1.1 million of TV time
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A million dollars doesn’t buy a huge amount of TV time (Rauner is spending over half a mil this week in Chicago alone), but it’s more than Tom Cross has to spend, for sure…
State Sen. Mike Frerichs, D-Champaign, has reserved $1.1 million worth of TV air time in his bid to become Illinois Treasurer, the campaign has confirmed to Early & Often. […]
In June, he closed out the second three months of the year with $1.3 million in his campaign account. By comparison, Cross had about a $500,000 balance for the same period.
“This commanding financial advantage allowed the Frerichs campaign to reserve fall TV time at a significant discount,” a campaign statement reads.
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*** UPDATED x1 *** You gotta be kidding me
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is the sort of stupid crud that too often passes for “reform” in DC. Roll Call reports that Congressman Brad Schneider’s new TV ad might be in technical violation of federal election law…
Twenty-one seconds into “Together,” the congressman begins his disclaimer: “I’m Brad Schneider and I approve this message because we’re all in this together, accountable to each other.” But the voiceover is coupled with two shots: one of part of the side of Schneider’s face in a shadow as he drives a car and a second shot of him quickly entering a building through a revolving door and barely showing his face.
According to the Federal Election Commission, disclaimers can be conveyed one of two ways:
A full-screen view of the candidate making the statement (11 CFR 110.11(c)(3)(ii)(A)); or
A “clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the candidate” that appears during the candidate’s voice-over statement. (11 CFR 110.11(c)(3)(ii)(B)).
This particular ad doesn’t fulfill the first requirement and may not fulfill the second requirement.
The Schneider campaign claims the law was followed. The ad in question is here.
I suppose there are reasons for this particular law, and we have our own weird laws and rules here (particularly regarding petition signatures). But, geez.
* Also, please raise your hand if you believe that the fine folks at Roll Call found this on their own by scrupulously timing this one particular advertisement out of the many hundreds currently running all over the nation?
Anybody?
I’ve become a firm believer in labeling opposition research for what it is. Just about everybody passes it off as “journalism” and I’ve come to believe that’s just flat-out deceptive.
*** UPDATE *** We may now know where that oppo came from…
Brad Schneider has landed himself in hot water for potentially breaking Federal Election Commission rules. Nathan Gonzales with Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call unpacks the possible violations below.
The issue is with Brad Schneider’s shadowed face during the disclaimer – an ironic blunder given Schneider’s ongoing attempts to hide information about his tax returns and so-called small business experience.
It looks like Brad Schneider has a lot more work to do to introduce himself to the 44% of constituents who haven’t seen him do enough to form an opinion about him.
Emily Davis
Deputy Communications Director
Congressional Leadership Fund
…Adding… Apparently, the reporter did find it on his own. My apologies. I get pitched silly little dingy stuff like this every day.
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* The Libertarian Party’s battle to stay on the ballot isn’t over yet. An attorney affiliated with the Illinois Republican Party has filed a motion for judicial review of the State Board of Elections’ ruling allowing the Libertarians ballot access. You can read the motion by clicking here.
Rauner foe Doug Ibendahl is not amused…
The appeal was filed the day before Rauner told reporters he was “outraged” and “appalled” over multiple reports that Rauner supporters employed openly armed men in an effort to get Libertarian Party petition signers and circulators to recant their previously sworn representations.
.
The Libertarian Party last week filed criminal complaints with the Office of the Cook County State’s Attorney and the Office of the Illinois Attorney General. Governor Pat Quinn has also called for a full investigation.
.
Meanwhile, Mr. Rauner apparently hasn’t lifted a finger to clean up his own house. At his August 28 press conference, Rauner claimed ignorance and pointed all fingers at the Illinois Republican Party – despite the fact that at least one of Rauner’s salaried campaign staffers was working closely with the armed muscle.
.
Now that Rauner’s camp has moved the ballot access fight to Springfield, it will be interesting to see what kind of “ammunition” his muscle employs next.
* The Libertarians don’t have much time left to file a response. We’ll see what happens.
But, as they say, never bring a knife to a gun-fight. And this obviously is one.
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Quinn, Rahm tout minimum wage issue
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The minimum wage publicity push is just beginning, so get used to it. Expect to hear lots more about it as the weeks click by. Raising the minimum polls sky high and, of course, there’s that non-binding referendum this November which is designed to bolster turnout.
The general rule of thumb I use is that when my commenters start getting sick of discussing an issue, then it’s just barely starting to penetrate into the rest of the state. So, yeah, you’re sick of hearing that Rauner is rich. Well, most people don’t really know that yet. So, they have to keep pounding and pounding until the message finally burns in. Same with the Democrats’ support for the minimum wage. Like I said above, get used to it.
From a press release…
Governor Pat Quinn today will visit with local residents in communities across Illinois to talk about the importance of raising the minimum wage. The Governor will visit local cafes and fast food restaurants in Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur, Peoria, Galesburg and Rock Falls, to visit with workers and talk about their experiences.
The Governor is taking the minimum wage challenge this week, living off $79, the average amount someone working full time on the minimum wage in Illinois earns per week after housing costs, transportation and taxes. This budget will cover Governor Quinn’s food and living expenses from Sunday, Aug. 31 through Saturday, Sept. 6.
“Those who think that this challenge is a gimmick should spend one day in a minimum wage workers’ shoes,” Governor Quinn said. “Over the past few days I’ve only experienced a small taste of what it’s like to live on minimum wage. Our workers are making painful choices every day. I couldn’t even buy my niece a birthday card - can you imagine what it’s like for a family getting by on minimum wage come Christmas time?”
Raising the minimum wage in Illinois is part of the Governor’s commitment to drive economic growth, alleviate poverty and ensure all workers are treated fairly. Governor Quinn has a plan to raise the minimum wage in Illinois to at least $10 an hour. By increasing the Illinois minimum wage to $10 an hour, a half-million Illinois consumers will make an extra $4,800 a year and much of that extra income will be spent at local businesses on food, clothing and furniture, providing a strong boost to the local economy.
Nearly two-thirds of small-business owners support raising the federal minimum wage because they believe it will help the economy and, in turn, enable them to hire more workers, according to a poll conducted by the Small Business Majority. Leaders from large companies such as Costco, Starbucks and Stride Rite also have supported increasing the minimum wage as a way to reduce employee turnover and improve workers’ productivity.
* From the mayor’s office…
Mayor Rahm Emanuel today signed an Executive Order requiring City contractors and subcontractors to pay employees a minimum wage of $13 per hour for contracts advertised after October 1, 2014. The hourly wage will be indexed to inflation and increase proportionally on a yearly basis thereafter.
“A higher minimum wage is essential to putting a financial floor beneath our hard-working families,” Mayor Emanuel said. “With this Executive action, we’ll help ensure that nobody who is contracted to do work with the City of Chicago will ever have to raise their children in poverty.”
The Executive Order is the first step taken by the City to ensure that all employees contracted with the City of Chicago are provided with sufficient wages for a shot at the middle class. It applies to all service contracts, including construction contracts, advertised after October 1, 2014.
“We made the decision long ago to pay our employees a decent wage that enables them to support their families,” said Deborah Sawyer, President and CEO, Environmental Design International. “Raising the minimum wage is not only good for my employees, but helps reduce worker turnover and improves workplace morale – which helps my bottom line as a small business owner.”
Approximately 1,000 contracted employees will benefit from this Executive Order. These workers are typically employed as landscapers, maintenance workers, security officers, concessionaires, and in custodial services.
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Quinn slammed for criticizing “job creators”
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* This is a $100,000 “targeted online buy” from Americans for Prosperity Illinois. Rate it…
…Adding… Script…
The American dream.
Success.
Security.
That’s what Illinois’s governor should want for all of us.
Does Pat Quinn?
He criticizes job creators and business owners for their hard-earned success
He’s raised taxes, increased spending, and hasn’t solved the pension crisis
And while Illinois loses jobs – and paychecks – Pat Quinn’s taken millions in taxpayer dollars as an Illinois elected official
Call Pat Quinn and tell him to focus on helping people get ahead, instead of demonizing those who do.
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Today’s quotable
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Erickson…
Two years after drawing the ire of downstate voters with his plan to shutter prisons and other state facilities, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is now highlighting those closures in a new television ad. […]
State Sen. Gary Forby, D-Benton, said the ad shows Quinn is more worried about garnering support in Chicago than in areas south of Interstate 80 where most of the facility closures took place in 2012 and 2013.
He predicted the governor could see a repeat of his 2010 performance when he won just three downstate counties — Jackson, Alexander and St. Clair.
“I’m glad I’m not running this year,” said Forby, who is not up for re-election until 2016.
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Non-denial denial
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tom Kacich took note of the Politico story claiming that the DCCC was pulling out of the race against Congressman Rodney Davis…
But the DCCC still lists Callis’ campaign in its top-tier “red-to-blue” category and hasn’t canceled any of the TV time it has reserved for Callis, starting later this month.
Asked for a comment on whether the DCCC was yanking its support for Callis, spokesman Brandon Lorenz wrote, “Judge Callis is running a strong campaign talking about her record of reform and holding Congressman Davis accountable for keeping perks like his taxpayer-funded gym during his government shutdown.”
Not really a vote of confidence for Callis.
That’s an understatement.
* Meanwhile, Davis is running his second intro ad, and it’s pretty good…
* Script…
I’m Toryn Davis.
Next year I’ll be a freshman in college.
I’m a little nervous but excited to get away from my brothers.
It’s also a little scary to think about how much college costs.
That’s why I’m so proud of my dad, Rodney Davis.
In Congress, he’s fighting to make college more affordable and working just as hard to create jobs, so we all have a better future.
Even them. (points to her brothers, Clark and Griffin).
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Bo-ring
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Give his campaign credit for a quick turnaround, I suppose, but Gov. Quinn’s new Web ad doesn’t live up to the hype of this press release…
A new Web ad from the Quinn for Illinois campaign features a recent headline from The Washington Post that, “Bruce Rauner spends more on wine than average Illinois households spend on everything.”
The Post piece follows Rauner’s admission that he had paid the more than $140,000 fee to join an exclusive Napa Valley wine club, where he helped to found the winery. The Post notes that the average Illinois household income is about $55,000.
Watch the new Web ad here.
Rauner has outraged Republicans and Democrats with his disingenuous attempt to misrepresent himself, dressing up in Carhartt jackets and touting an $18 watch.
In fact, the billionaire owns nine homes, paid $100,000 for an extra parking spot at one of his extra homes, and owns 23,000 acres (the size of Naperville) in Wyoming and Montana. He took in $53 million in 2012 alone.
Between bottles, Rauner has proposed cutting the minimum wage.
*No fancy wine was harmed during the filming.
* Man, is this thing ever boring…
I can’t stop yawning.
* National political writers and bloggers jumped all over this story. Bloomberg, WaPo, TPM, USA Today, Politix, MSNBC, Wonkette, etc. all got in on the gag. Yet all we get is a bottle of wine poured into a glass?
C’mon. Y’all can’t do better than this? It’s a Web ad. People won’t watch Web ads unless they’re somehow interesting. This ain’t.
Maybe they should have a glass of wine or two before brainstorming the next one.
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Quinn still has base problems
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.
For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.
* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats…
Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…
* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women…
Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.
* From the pollster…
“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”
* Methodology…
This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents
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JBT maintains strong lead
Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.
From Reboot…
The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.
“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]
The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.
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* More magic ponies…
* Illinois Observer…
Local government finance experts have, however, panned Rauner’s proposal as unworkable and unrealistic because it would hamstring municipalities and school districts alike in their efforts to manage budgets in which routine inflation, for example, drives up costs.
“Mr. Rauner may be financial wizard in private business, but the property tax freeze idea betrays a total lack of awareness of municipal finance,” a suburban Cook County mayor told The Illinois Observer. “It belongs in the category of bizarre pipe dreams.”
Ah, but bizarre pipe dreams sell.
Policy aside, tapping perennial voter frustration over high property taxes and their routine increase is good politics – and a potential windfall for political consultants who would need to persuade voters either way.
*** UPDATE *** Quinn campaign response…
In response to a deceptive new television ad by Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner, who improperly filed for three property tax exemptions, former Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan issued the below statement:
“In his deceptive new television ad, Bruce Rauner fails to mention that the Rauner Tax Plan would blow an $8 billion hole in the state budget and cause localities to enact the biggest property tax hike in Illinois history.
“The cuts in state funding for education made necessary by the Rauner Tax Plan would shift the financial burden for school districts to local property taxes. This would leave no choice but to send property taxes sky high.
“Mr. Rauner should stop deceiving voters.”
In reality, Governor Quinn, who opposes property tax increases, has made the tough decisions to restore fiscal stability to Illinois, putting the state in a position to provide more funding for schools and reduce reliance on property taxes.
Houlihan served as Cook County Assessor from 1997 to 2011 and before that served in the Illinois House of Representatives and as an aide to Chicago Mayor Harold Washington.
While Assessor, Houlihan fought to lower unfair property taxes that hurt families and businesses, instituting a 7% homeowner exemption. These efforts sought to decrease reliance on the property tax to fund education and other important services, a key priority for Governor Quinn as outlined in his 2014 State of the State address.
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* From AFSCME Council 31…
Four years ago, Scott Walker became governor of Wisconsin and launched an all-out assault on public employees. He pushed through legislation stripping state, university and city/county workers of their right to bargain collectively. The impact was immediate and devastating.
Now, billionaire CEO Bruce Rauner is running for Illinois governor and vowing to copy Walker’s extreme agenda. Our neighbors to the north have a personal message about what this would mean for AFSCME members here. Watch this brand-new video to hear directly from public-service workers in Wisconsin
After you’ve watched, here are three steps you can take to help spread the word and make a difference:
In unity,
Roberta Lynch
Executive director
AFSCME Council 31
* The video…
Discuss.
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* From a Southern Illinoisan article about a dispute over debates between Bill Enyart and Mike Bost…
“Springfield insider Mike Bost has no answer as to why he thinks we should lower the minimum wage and make thousands of Southern Illinoisans suffer, while at the same time he takes a pay raise from taxpayers for $3,100. It is not surprising he is now backing out of every debate possible,” said Enyart campaign advisor Jason Bresler. […]
This is just another example of Beltway Bill trying to distract from his votes in favor of Obamacare, Nancy Pelosi and and Washington DC. Mike has fought Springfield politicians at every turn, anyone who says differently, hasn’t seen YouTube,” [Bost campaign spokesman Jim Forbes] challenged back.
Ugh.
For crying out loud, learn to talk like human beings. Nobody’s gonna tune into those quotes except people who are already insanely hyperpartisan.
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Suarez stands by her ad, produces evidence
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Well, didn’t this story just get interesting?…
Rich,
I was just alerted to your post saying that someone else wrote the piece about women in the military. As I told you, I stand by my ad. Here is the original letter to the editor that was published in the St. Louis Post Dispatch on October 14, 1998. There is only one Kurt Prenzler (that we can find) living in the United States and he was living in Brentwood, MO at the time.
I think what you found was a post on Facebook by a gentleman trying to confront Prenzler with the words and Prenzler deleted it.
Please call me if you have any questions.
–
Marleen Suarez
Democratic Candidate - Madison County Treasurer
* The letter to the editor…
Oh, that’s gonna sting.
…Adding… If Suarez wants to raise any money to get that ad on the air, then she probably ought to update her fundraising link, which no longer functions.
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* The Tribune had a story the other day about Rahm Emanuel’s ties to Bruce Rauner. It skipped some important bones of contention, particularly those Rauner robocalls slamming Rahm’s pension reform plan. But, anyway, from the story…
Just a few months before announcing plans to become Chicago’s next Democratic mayor, Rahm Emanuel strolled down the gravel path to a Montana resort restaurant with Republican businessman Bruce Rauner, both men smiling as they carried bottles of wine.
In his hand, Emanuel carried a bottle of Napa Valley Reserve. The wine — which a spokeswoman says was not Emanuel’s — is so exclusive it is available only through a private vineyard whose members pay six figures to join the club. […]
[Emanuel’s spokeswoman] said the bottle did not belong to Emanuel. Officials from Rauner’s campaign declined to comment.
* The Sun-Times followed up…
Q: Do you belong to a wine club that costs $100,000 to be a member of?
RAUNER: (Laughs) I have many investments and I am a member of many clubs.
REPORTER: So that is a yes?
RAUNER: Yes.
* And the Quinn campaign pounced…
Quinn for Illinois spokesman Izabela Miltko issued the below statement regarding Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner’s comments today confirming that he belongs to an invitation-only wine club that requires a more than $140,000 initiation fee, a fact he hid from the Chicago Tribune over the weekend.
According to the wine club, the membership structure is similar to most fine private clubs. Membership is non-equity and by invitation only. There is a membership deposit with two levels of membership: Estate Vineyard Program and Designated Vineyard Program, both requiring an initiation fee of more than $140,000.
“You just can’t get more out-of-touch than Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner.
“While enjoying a luxury $140,000 wine club membership, Republican Bruce Rauner actually proposed to cut the minimum wage, taking $2,000 a year out of the pockets of hard-working Illinois families.
“Mr. Rauner’s proposal to cut the minimum wage was heartless on its own merits. The fact that when he made it, he was wining and dining himself on the best wine money can buy is even more callous.
“Bruce Rauner may not like the minimum wage, but he sure loves his vino.”
*** UPDATE *** From what I know of Rauner (spend big bucks on things that appreciate, like land and mansions, don’t spend money on stuff like watches and cars, which often lose value), I wouldn’t have guessed he would get suckered into spending that much money to join a wine club. WaPo has another possible explanation that makes more sense to me…
While Rauner said he belongs to the club, it’s not clear if it’s NVR — or what he might have paid for that membership. As Worth dot com notes, Rauner was also a silent partner in Harlan’s first investment in vineyard property in Napa Valley. Perhaps his investment in land that Worth (the site) says could have been worth (the noun) somewhere in the neighborhood of nine figures meant he was grandfathered in.
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A very good point
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Illinois has a veterans hiring preference law. So, handing out a few hundred state government jobs to the politically connected when those positions should’ve been handled by the civil service system (which would mean veterans would have a preference) does, indeed, harm some vets…
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Rauner outspent 2-1 on Chicago TV last month
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Keep in mind that these Quinn-Rauner ad spending totals don’t include spending by that union-backed PAC which has run ads attacking Bruce Rauner…
During the last month, the two campaigns spent nearly $3 million on TV ads in the expensive Chicago broadcast market, records show. And experts say the pace of ads and the amount spent will only grow in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 4 election.
From late July through Friday, Quinn aired 1,133 ads at a cost of nearly $1.97 million. That includes 159 airings of an unusual one-minute spot to introduce his campaign at a cost of almost half a million dollars. Rauner aired 1,382 half-minute commercials that cost just more than $1 million, records show.
People in the area tell me that both candidates have been running ads on St. Louis TV, which is almost unheard of at this point in the game.
Quinn is on a pace that pretty much everybody predicted. Rauner’s ad buys, however, are a whole lot lighter than I figured they’d be. Only a million for the entire month?
* But Rauner is picking up the pace this week…
Rauner bought 466 spots for more than $536,000 in Chicago, including $90,000 for a pair of 30-second ads on Sunday’s Bears home game. That number could be even higher, as TV station records were incomplete late Friday. Quinn had bought 269 ads for the week at a cost of more than $420,000.
…Adding… Background info from a certain campaign…
Since the primary (3/18/14):
Rauner: $6.5M on broadcast, cable, & radio.
Quinn: $4.2M on broadcast, cable, & radio.
Since 6/11/2013:
Rauner: $15.8M on broadcast, cable, & radio.
Quinn: $4.2M on broadcast, cable, & radio.
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So far, it’s still stuntish
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Gov. Quinn was asked today about how the minimum wage challenge was going for him…
Gov. Pat Quinn says his experience trying to live on the minimum wage for a week has meant graham crackers for dinner. […]
Quinn told reporters Tuesday that he’s opted for water instead of iced tea while eating out. He made the comments after talking to Chicago students returning to school for the first day of classes. […]
Quinn says he’ll spend $79 this week on food and other expenses. His campaign says that’s the estimated amount left for minimum wage workers after transportation and housing costs.
* React…
State Sen. Bill Brady, who ran against Quinn in 2010, calls it a publicity stunt.
“Frankly, it kind of mocks the struggles those who are living on minimum wage are dealing with,” Brady said. “It defers the attention that really needs to be focused on creating good paying, career-oriented jobs. That’s what we’re about.”
This is merely a simulated experience. Quinn won’t have to constantly fret this week about paying his rent, or making his car payment, or buying school clothes for his kids, or keeping his phone and electricity turned on, or paying for a dentist to deal with an other-worldly toothache, or the myriad other soul-crushing emergencies that the working poor deal with every single day.
If the governor talked more about those realities, I’d be more inclined to say this isn’t a stunt.
* Quinn did talk about the policy importance of the minimum wage today, but it was the same old lines he’s been using…
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* Politico’s Alex Isenstadt says Bill Enyart could be dumped soon…
Despite the GOP’s troubles, Democrats remain anxious that the political environment could deteriorate still further before Election Day. They say two of their vulnerable incumbents, New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Illinois Rep. Bill Enyart, may soon be lost causes and are scrambling to prevent that list from growing.
We’ll see. That’s certainly a tough district for Enyart in an off year with Pat Quinn’s numbers in the tank. But only one occupation polls lower than a sitting congressman: Illinois state legislator. Mike Bost has taken lots and lots of votes over the years.
* By the way, Bost is airing his first TV ad…
* Back to the Politico article. Most of the chatter I heard over the weekend was about Ann Callis…
Democrats have gradually narrowed their focus to protecting jeopardized incumbents and are likely to seriously invest in only the dozen or so candidates seen as realistic contenders for Republican-held seats. At the start of the cycle, for instance, national Democrats had been talking up the candidacies of Ann Callis, a former county judge running for an Illinois seat, and Amanda Renteria, a former Capitol Hill aide seeking a California seat. Neither candidate is now seen as likely to win, and neither is receiving as much attention.
The DCCC’s only evidence that they haven’t yet jettisoned Callis is their media buy reservations haven’t been canceled. Kinda thin soup.
* Meanwhile…
Katie Prill, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the GOP’s Illinois strategy has changed from defense to offense. The NRCC has spent a half million dollars on television ads to support Dold against Schneider, and a total of $1.4 million to support Mike Bost, who is facing the Democrat Enyart, and Davis in their races.
Prill singled out the Dold-Schneider race as a “huge pickup opportunity” for Republicans. Dold lost to Schneider in the independent-leaning district by about one percentage point in 2012.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $800,000 on ads so far in the Dold-Schneider race, and about $3.5 million in the other two districts. U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi recently appeared in Chicago to rally with Callis and Schneider, and push the Democratic campaign themes of equal pay for women and raising the minimum wage.
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* During the Illinois State Fair, I was chatting with a friend of mine who’s also a Chicago TV reporter. The conversation turned to Jim Oberweis and Dick Durbin. My buddy said Durbin would win going away. I said I thought it would be closer than that, partly because Durbin’s been in DC so many years. So, we made a bet. I bet the final spread would be single digits, my friend said it would be double digits.
The last We Ask America poll of this race in late July had Durbin ahead 53-38. The poll was taken before the State Fair, so I could understand why my buddy was so confident.
But things can change in politics. And while I haven’t yet won that bet, I may be on my way to collecting some cash…
In a year that’s expected to tilt toward Republicans across the nation, Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the U.S. Senate, is leading Oberweis, who is making his third run for the Senate, 47.8 percent to 40.5 percent, the [We Ask America] survey commissioned by the Sun-Times’ political portal shows.
And in the first major survey since an Illinois State Board of Elections ruling allowed the Libertarian Party onto the ballot, candidate Sharon Hansen had a showing of about 4 percent.
Now you see why the Republicans wanted the Libertarian Party off the ballot. She’s getting 8 percent of the independent vote, according to the poll. So far, anyway, she’s splitting the anti-Durbin vote with Oberweis. We’ll see what happens when party loyalty kicks in.
…Adding… Something happened to half this post. It didn’t publish. Hold on a bit. I’m reconstructing now.
* More…
Of those surveyed, 60 percent responded they were less likely to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate who had served in Washington, in the Senate and Congress, for 31 years. […]
Still, when asked: “If a candidate for the U.S. Senate has run five unsuccessful campaigns for various public offices in the past, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for him?” [54 percent less likely] 44 percent said they were either more likely to support that person or that it made no difference.
* From the pollster…
“The tight numbers may be a reflection of a Republican year,” he said. “Still, Sen. Durbin is close to 50 percent in the poll. He has the advantage of a large campaign fund and an experienced campaign staff. That can’t be ignored.”
*** UPDATE *** Durbin, you’ll recall, refused to release his own polling results last month. But Oberweis has released the results of his poll…
Incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin leads Republican challenger Jim Oberweis by a mere 6% among likely voters in the upcoming November mid-term elections. Receiving 44% of the vote, the 32-year incumbent is well below the 50% threshold.
Durbin and Oberweis receive comparable support from voters of their respective parties. Durbin garners 76% of the Democratic vote and Oberweis receives 77% of the Republican vote. Oberweis has a slim lead over Durbin among independent voters at 38-37%.
Libertarian Sharon Hansen receives 8% of the vote, noting that third-party candidates traditionally poll higher than the vote received at the ballot box.
On the generic ballot for Senate, the Republican candidate holds a slight lead at 44-43% over the Democratic candidate. Independents prefer to vote for a Republican (43%) over a Democrat (27%) to represent them in the U.S. Senate.
More results here. Durbin’s approval rating is upside down. Not good.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
* Meanwhile, Oberweis got a big boost from a prominent black minister…
Bishop Larry Trotter, the senior pastor of Sweet Holy Spirit Church of Chicago, said Sunday he’s backing Republican state Sen. Jim Oberweis for U.S. Senate, changing allegiance from longtime incumbent U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill. […]
He said he’s switching his support from Durbin to Oberweis after seeing meager economic development in African-American neighborhoods; a lack of a south suburban trauma center and a perceived “lack of access” to Durbin.
“When you pastor 8,000 people, I think you ought to get a return phone call,” Trotter said at a news conference in his church office Sunday afternoon.
He said he has spoken with Durbin only once despite “many attempts” to express his concerns to the No. 2 Democrat in the U.S. Senate.
I’m betting the real reason is Trotter’s leadership of the anti gay marriage effort last year. Oberweis voted with Bishop Trotter. Durbin supports gay marriage. No mention of either fact in the article, however.
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*** UPDATE *** As noted above, Marleen Suarez has now produced evidence which indicates that her ad is, indeed factual. Click here to read her response and see her evidence.
[ *** End Of Update *** ]
Remember that brutal campaign video I posted a month ago about the Madison County Treasurer’s race? The ad, by Democrat Marleen Suarez, alleged that all sorts of bad things were discovered at Republican incumbent Kurt Prenzler’s daycare center, including “rat droppings and roaches.”
Well, Suarez’s campaign is at it again, but this time they’ve missed the mark, to say the least. Watch…
Oof.
* But the allegations don’t appear to be true.
A Google search for the phrase “Meanwhile, there is sex in the barracks and the U.S. Navy has transformed itself into a floating brothel” turned up a cached result of a deleted comment on the Madison County Treasurer’s Facebook page.
That comment appears to have been written by somebody named Edward Hartmann, not Prenzler. Here’s a screen capture…
Oops.
Amazingly enough, Prenzler doesn’t appear to have responded. Also, keep in mind that we’re talking Madison County here, perhaps best known nationally for its lawsuits. Stay tuned.
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* As we’ve already discussed, outside groups have bought over a million dollars worth of TV ads attacking freshman Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider. Today, Schneider launches his own TV buy. From a press release…
U.S. Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10) launched his first campaign television ad this election, highlighting his Democratic values and commitment to stand up to the Tea Party.
The ad features Schneider explaining what it means to be Democrat, including his support for marriage equality and protecting a woman’s right to choose. In contrast, former Republican Congressman Bob Dold makes no reference to his party affiliation in his most recent ad.
* The ad…
* The script…
Here’s the thing.
To me, being a Democrat means we can’t let “We the People” turn into “We the Few”.
It means tea party obstruction has to stop.
Being a Democrat means we should lower the tax burden on the middle class.
It means we have to protect a woman’s right to choose and every person’s right to choose whom to marry.
I’m Brad Schneider and I approve this message because we’re all in this together, accountable to each other.
We can still accomplish great things.
Discuss.
*** UPDATE *** Dold campaign response…
At a time when voters have had it with do-nothing politicians and the bitter partisanship that has paralyzed Washington, Congressman Brad Schneider is demonstrating just how out of touch he is by doubling down on his record of serving his party leaders rather than the people of the 10th District.
No need to take our word for it, Congressman Schneider says it all himself in his new campaign ad while taking himself out for a coffee break.
After voting with Nancy Pelosi 90 percent of the time, Congressman Schneider’s own ad reminds everyone how enthusiastically he embraces blind partisanship and rejects the independent-minded leadership the 10th District enjoyed under Mark Kirk and Bob Dold. As if anyone needed a reminder.
But what Schneider deliberately leaves out in his first ad is 1) any record of accomplishment on anything at all from his time in office 2) the fact that he is the 10th District’s current sitting member of congress.
Why would the Congressman leave important details like these out?
“After amassing a record as a hyper-partisan politician who’s earned a toxic 28 percent approval rating and has been ranked as one of the least effective legislators in all of Washington, it’s no wonder that Congressman Schneider makes no mention of his abysmal record or even the fact that he’s a member of Congress,” said James Slepian, Dold for Congress campaign manager. “Congressman Schneider has demonstrated that he knows how to hide from his constituents, but the voters won’t let him hide from his record at the ballot box.”
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A boldfaced lie
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
“We should have billions of dollars every year as part of our budget process…(to) maintain and expand our infrastructure,” Bruce Rauner said last week, according to the Chicago Tribune.
Rauner has been doing his best to woo the road builders all year, and he was speaking to the Illinois Farm Bureau, which has lots of members who rely on roads and bridges to get their goods to market. So I understand the practical politics of his bold promise.
But this stuff costs money. Lots and lots and lots of money. And infrastructure is only his second priority. His top priority is education funding. He wants to spend even more money on schools.
Yet, Rauner says he wants to slash the state’s income tax rate. Can he really do all that with lower revenues?
There are three ways to pay for these pie in the sky plans: 1) Gin up the state’s economy to North Dakota levels; 2) Stop making the full state pension payments; or 3) Increase state total taxation far above current levels.
Let’s examine all three, shall we?
1) Rauner has been saying all along that economic expansion is key to generating the revenue needed to pay for everything he wants to do. Yes, Illinois’ jobless rate is down considerably over the last year. That’s good news. But unless oil and natural gas “fracking” turns our state into another Saudi Arabia, there’s just no way Illinois can hit Rauner’s fantasy projections.
Last week, the Congressional Budget Office issued a forecast that the nation’s economy will grow by a mere 1.5 percent in 2014. We’ll need state growth way beyond that just to start covering Rauner’s big promises. Does anybody out there really believe Illinois is capable of outperforming the national economy by that much, even with massive reforms to civil lawsuits, workers’ compensation and unemployment insurance?
2) Resuming the state’s sad history of skipping or skimping on pension payments would likely result in a major bond rating downgrade, perhaps even to junk status. That’s really not an option. The other move would be to force local school districts to take over the state’s role of funding the teachers pension system. But Rauner has also proposed another amazing magical fantasy of capping local property taxes.
He can’t shift pension costs and cap property taxes all at once without decimating the budgets of every school district in Illinois. Period. End of story. And if he doesn’t muscle this local fiscal nightmare through the General Assembly in a big hurry (fat chance), there won’t be nearly enough money available to pay for even a little of what he wants to spend.
Rauner has also said he wants to immediately put all state employees, teachers and university employees into a 401(K) type retirement system to ease pressure on the state budget. But considering the Illinois Supreme Court’s clear hostility to anything that even remotely pares back public pension benefits, that idea ain’t gonna pass constitutional muster. Not to mention the huge outstanding pension debt the state has accumulated over the years, which still has to be paid off.
3) After assuring Republican primary voters that he’d slash taxes, the candidate now says he wants to gradually roll back the 2 percentage point, 2011 income tax hike over four years. That’s somewhere around $8 billion in lost annual revenue by his target date - about a 40 percent cut in current income tax receipts, and the personal and corporate income taxes account for a little over half of all state revenues.
According to the General Assembly’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, state revenues, including federal sources and the 2011 income tax hike, have grown an average of just 4.5 percent a year since Fiscal Year 1998.
Rauner’s proposed service tax would have to be ginormously biggerthan the $450 million or so he’s advertised to cover a nut like that. And never mind that taxes on services will tend to drive down consumption, which reduces demand, which hurts economic growth, particularly at the middle and lower ends (see fantasy #1).
Say what you want about Gov. Pat Quinn, and I’ve said more than my share of negative things over the years, but at least he tries to live somewhere in the neighborhood of budgetary reality. In contrast, the new government spending that Bruce Rauner is proposing on the campaign trail transcends the political posturing we’ve grown accustomed to as Illinoisans.
I don’t say this lightly, but it’s a boldfaced lie, cheerily spoon-fed to an angry, disgusted populace desperate for even a hint of good news. He needs to be called out for this.
…Adding… Greg Hinz…
In an exchange of emails, the Rauner campaign appears to have removed any ambiguity about asking workers to accept less or to get their checks later rather than when due. “All benefits accrued to date will be paid fully and on time,” a campaign spokesman says. That means the money will have to come from somewhere else.
But where? Mr. Rauner has said he wants to repeal Mr. Quinn’s income tax hike over four years. He says boosting education aid will be his top priority and that much of the money will come from reviving the state’s still-lagging economy. But doing so will take time, sweat and the political skills of a Lyndon Johnson.
Even if Mr. Rauner somehow persuades Springfield Democrats to enact tort and workers’ compensation reform, switch out a tax on service for the income tax hike and take other controversial steps, will that provide enough revenue to make the schools happy and retire $100 billion in debt?
I doubt it.
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Rate Gov. Quinn’s new TV ad
Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From a press release…
Featuring Governor Quinn’s 63-year-old push mower, Quinn for Illinois released a new ad today showing the Governor trimming his lawn and recounting the steps he has taken to rein in government spending and restore fiscal health to Illinois. The ad, which features the Governor mowing the lawn in front of his modest Georgian home in Chicago’s Galewood neighborhood, went up on the air this morning.
“I’m working to fix the mess and I’m not finished,” Governor Quinn concludes in the ad.
Governor Quinn inherited a mess, but he’s been making the tough decisions and getting the job done to move Illinois in the right direction.
* The ad…
* Transcript…
Governor Quinn: “When I became Governor, state government needed to be cut, just like my lawn. So I got to work. I cut state spending by $5 billion, cut over 2 million square feet of office space, closed 50 state properties, and we’re selling 9 state airplanes. I suspended legislators’ pay along with my own. We balanced the budget in a fiscally responsible way. I’m Pat Quinn, I’m working to fix the mess and I’m not finished.”
…Adding… As you’ll recall, Quinn got some bad publicity not long ago when one of his neighbors complained that his lawn was too long. That could be seen as a negative metaphor here. Yeah, he’s cutting his lawn now, but he should’ve been cutting it all along… or something.
* The Rauner campaign is out with a “fact check”…
Quinnocchio Alert: New Ad Misleads on Quinn’s Record of Higher Spending, Higher Taxes, Unbalanced Budget
“Taxes in Illinois are a lot like the weeds in Pat Quinn’s yard – out-of-control and hurting his neighbors. The only thing Pat Quinn knows how to cut is education funding to the tune of $500 million.” – Rauner Spokesperson Mike Schrimpf
Quinn Claim: “I Cut State Spending By $5 Billion”
Reality: The Budget Has Grown Under Pat Quinn, And He Raised Taxes By $25 Billion
Spending From Illinois’ General Funds Has Increased From $32.23 Billion In FY2010 To $35.76 Billion In FY2015. (State Of Illinois Budget Summary - Fiscal Year 2015, Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability, p.26)
Quinn’s Tax Increase Has Taken $25.7 Billion From The Pockets Of Illinois Families. “From an aggregate perspective, it is estimated, then, that a cumulative total of approximately $25.7 billion has been generated from the increases in the personal and corporate tax rate so far thru FY 2014.” (State Of Illinois Budget Summary - Fiscal Year 2015, Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability, p.17)
Reality: Quinn Cut Education By $500 Million
Pat Quinn Has Cut Education Funding By $500 Million. (”State of Illinois Budget Summary - Fiscal Year 2014, Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, 8/19/13; “New Details Emerge on FY2015 Budget, Civic Federation, June 5, 2014)
Reality: Quinn Is Under Federal Investigation For His 2010 Slush Fund That Wasted $55 Million In Taxpayer Money
Pat Quinn’s Administration Is Under Federal Criminal Investigation For His 2010 Neighborhood Recovery Initiative. “Federal prosecutors and Illinois lawmakers are investigating a troubled state anti-violence program, creating a growing headache for Gov. Pat Quinn, who is locked in a tight re-election race. A legislative audit commission held a hearing Wednesday on the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative after subpoenaing members of Mr. Quinn’s administration. But the proceedings were hampered by federal prosecutors who recently confirmed that a criminal probe is under way into the program and warned lawmakers that public testimony could hurt their efforts.” (Mark Peters, “Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn’s Re-Election Hampered by Criminal Investigation,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/16/14)
The Neighborhood Recovery Initiative Wasted $55 Million In Taxpayer Funds. “The Neighborhood Recovery Initiative was launched in 2010 after Chicago community leaders called on Mr. Quinn to declare a state of emergency to address violence. The program, which had $55 million in funding in its first two years, focused on such areas as mentoring and assistance for those leaving prison. Earlier this year, the Illinois auditor general found ‘pervasive deficiencies’ in the program’s operations, including a lack of monitoring of expenses.” (Mark Peters, “Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn’s Re-Election Hampered by Criminal Investigation,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/16/14)
Quinn Claim: “We’re Selling 9 State Airplanes”
Reality: Much Like His Lawn, Quinn Only Did Something About Illinois’ Wasteful State Airplanes When People Started To Complain
Quinn Only Cut His Lawn After The Press Reported That His Neighbors Were Complaining. ” My own guilt made it hard not to cringe when the pictures showed up in my inbox. The snapshots of a forest of dandelions — those hated flowering weeds that choke front lawns and spread their seeds on puffy white pillows caught in the wind — showed every homeowner’s landscaping nightmare. Even though the photos were not of my front yard, I was hit with pangs of guilt because I should have weeded my own front lawn garden weeks ago. ‘Footlong dandelions all over,’ wrote the unhappy neighbor who sent the pictures. ‘Worst on the block. … I don’t know what’s worse, the front yard or the back.’ The dandelion tattletale said he sent the pictures because the dandelions and tall grass grow on the front lawn of a prominent Chicagoan who prides himself on regular-guy sensibilities — Gov. Pat Quinn.” (Mark Konkol, ” Gov. Quinn’s Front Yard Dandelion Forest Frustrates Neighbor,” DNAinfo Chicago, 5/22/14)
Bruce Rauner Proposed Selling Illinois’ Wasteful Air Fleet On June 12. “Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Rauner on Thursday laid out the first specific cost-cutting proposals of his candidacy, saying Illinois could save hundreds of millions of dollars, including by selling most of its airplanes, merging the comptroller’s and treasurer’s offices, and reforming the agency that oversees state property and purchasing.” (Tammy Webber, Rauner Details Cost-Cutting Ideas For Illinois,” The Associated Press, 6/12/14)
Quinn Said He Would Seek To Sell Nine Of Illinois’ State Planes On June 30. ” Illinois Governor Pat Quinn made $250 million in budget cuts and put nine airplanes up for sale as the lowest-rated state in the country struggles to improve its finances.” (Elizabeth Campbell, ” Illinois Governor Quinn Cuts Budget, Sells State’s Planes,” Bloomberg, 6/30/14)
Quinn Claim: “I Suspended Legislators’ Pay, Along With My Own”
Reality: Quinn’s Stunt Was Unconstitutional, And Slapped Down By The Courts
Quinn’s Move Was Ruled Unconstitutional By A State Judge And Lawmakers Were Paid Their Salaries, With Interest. “A Cook County judge decided Thursday that Gov. Pat Quinn’s move to stop paying lawmakers was unconstitutional and ordered Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka to pay them immediately — plus interest. Cook County Judge Neil H. Cohen ruled that Quinn violated the section of the Illinois Constitution that holds that state lawmakers’ salaries must not be changed during the term in which they were elected.” (Dave McKinney, Jon Seidel and Mitch Dudek, “In Blow To Gov. Quinn, Judge Rules State Lawmakers Must Be Paid,” Chicago Sun-Times, 9/26/13)
Quinn Claim: “We Balanced The Budget In A Fiscally-Responsible Way”
Reality: Quinn’s FY2015 Budget Is “Grotesquely Out Of Balance”
The FY2015 Budget Signed By Pat Quinn Is “Grotesquely Out Of Balance.” FOX 32 POLITICAL REPORTER MIKE FLANNERY: “I can’t recall seeing as irresponsible budget as was just approved… You’d think that the whole General Assembly was on medical marijuana when they were passing this thing. It’s grotesquely out of balance. It doesn’t have nearly the revenue that they claim. They emptied their whole dirty bag of tricks to make it look balanced.” (Fox 32 Chicago, 6/15/14)
Illinois Is At Risk Of Having Its Credit Rating Downgraded Yet Again Due To Quinn’s Unbalanced Budget. ” A top Wall Street bond-rating agency Wednesday raised the prospect of a downgrade on state bonds because of concerns over the newly implemented state budget and a recent court ruling on retiree health benefits. Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the state’s general obligation bonds to negative, though it retained its existing A- rating on state bonds. ‘The outlook revision follows the enactment of Illinois’ fiscal 2015 budget, which in our view is not structurally balanced and will contribute to growing deficits and payables that will likely pressure the state’s liquidity,’ Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Robin Prunty said in a prepared statement.” (Dave McKinney, “Bond-Rating Agency Shifts State Financial Outlook To Negative,” Chicago Sun-Times, 7/23/14)
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