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Sabato’s Crystal Ball ranks Illinois 43rd most Republican-friendly state

Thursday, Feb 10, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Louis Jacobson at Sabato’s Crystal Ball…

In contemporary politics, demography is destiny. Just how true this has become can be demonstrated by a simple calculation using 3 basic demographic variables.

For all 50 states, we looked at 3 variables that are increasingly linked with partisan voting:

— What percentage of the state’s residents 25 or older have at least a bachelor’s degree?

— What percentage of the state’s residents are white?

— How urban or rural is the state?

Put simply, Republican candidates now perform strongest among white voters without a college degree, especially if they live in rural areas. And Democrats, conversely, are performing best among minority voters, those with at least an undergraduate degree, and those who live in or near urban areas.

To make our calculations, we drew on the most recent education data from the National Center for Education Statistics’ Digest of Education Statistics, the most recent racial data from the U.S. Census Bureau, and FiveThirtyEight’s urbanization index.

For each of these 3 metrics, we ranked the states on a 1-to-50 scale.

Specifically, the state with the lowest percentage of residents 25 or over holding a bachelor’s degree was ranked 1, while the state with the highest percentage holding a bachelor’s degree was ranked 50. For the racial measurement, the whitest state was ranked 1, while the least-white state was ranked 50. For the urban-rural measurement, the least urban state was ranked 1, while the most urban state was ranked 50.

Once we had all 3 rankings in hand, we simply added together the rankings for each state, then rank-ordered that composite score for the states from 1 to 50. The states that ranked closer to 1 offered more friendly demographics for the GOP, while the states closer to 50 offered demographics more friendly to the Democrats.

As noted in the headline, Illinois was ranked the 43rd most Republican-friendly state, tied with Connecticut. We were 39th most friendly when it came to percentages of people with bachelor’s degrees, 34th most friendly on whiteness and 43rd on urbanization.

Keep in mind, this is about presidential races, not off-year contests, which is the cycle we’re in now. Some folks are making the case these days that the Illinois Democrats have taken things for granted for far too long. We’ll see in a matter of months.

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Saturday remap update: Bobby Rush blasts new map; Chris Christie and Mike Pompeo to attack Illinois map; Map called ‘dummymander’ by DC pundit; Head fake?

Saturday, Oct 16, 2021 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hyde Park Herald…

“The map that I’m seeing is an absolute non-starter. It’s a horrendous map that does not take into consideration cultural affinities,” [US Rep. Bobby Rush] said in a statement to the Herald. “It begins at a place called absurd and it ends at a place called ridiculous. The best thing about this map is that my southern boundaries are not in Iowa.”

In her own statement, [US Rep. Robin Kelly] was more sanguine about the redistricting.

“Change is always hard, and the map released today is not final. I expect to see more changes in the final version. However, I am pleased to see that the Pullman National Monument, the Museum of Science and Industry, the future Obama Presidential Center and the proposed site of the south suburban airport will remain in my district. I have worked on these projects and with the museum for many years and look forward to continuing my work there,” she said.

“I have always felt fortunate to represent Illinois’ 2nd congressional district, which is representative of our nation itself, with urban, suburban and rural components. I hope the final map will reflect this.”

* Worst remap take so far, and that’s really saying something…

Pretty obvious why #IL03 Newman was the only Dem whose district was legit made *worse* in this map: retribution for ousting Lipinski in the 2020 primary. https://t.co/3OqMOBcm9O

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 16, 2021

Yeah, because those noted conservadems JB Pritzker, Chris Welch and Don Harmon all banded together to mete out revenge on behalf of the pro-life legacy Lipinski. Right.

* Christie and Pompeo? OK. Also, could somebody tell Wasserman that this map will likely change over the coming two weeks? Thanks…

On Tuesday, the Sun-Times learned, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the co-chairs of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, will kick off an attack on the Democratic-drawn Illinois map, with more GOP assaults to come.

Democrats did not use all the available partisan firepower, said David Wasserman, one of the nation’s foremost remap experts, who is with “The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.”

The Illinois proposed map is “both uglier and less effective for Democrats than expected,” he wrote. With some shifts, Democrats could have added more protection for Rep. Lauren Underwood, who barely won a second term in 2020.

According to Wasserman’s analysis Illinois Democrats – who can still revise the map - unwittingly created some potential swing districts rather than safe havens in 2022. “If the political environment goes south for Democrats in 2022, this grotesque gerrymander could turn into a ‘dummymander,’” he wrote.

One possibility is that this is also a head fake. Republicans were expecting a lopsided map and this clearly is not. So, their attacks will fall flat… until the actual maps are passed in a couple of weeks.

* Using 2020 presidential numbers to predict 2022 outcomes is not smart, so keep that in mind when looking at these numbers from PlanScore, a project of the Campaign Legal Center…

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