* Stu Rothenberg has moved the 10th CD from Toss-up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up…

IL 10 (Schneider, D). Brad Schneider squeaked out a win over Republican incumbent Bob Dold by just over a percentage point (fewer than 3,500 votes) in 2012. Now, Dold has a re-match, figuring that in an off-year, and without President Obama on the ballot, he has a better chance to win. Dold ran a strong race before and he appears to have a small advantage right now. Democrats have reason to worry about that Democratic Governor Pat Quinn will meltdown outside of Chicago and affect the party’s chances in House races. This contest should be very close once again and we’re moving it from Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat to Pure Toss-Up

It’s tough to beat an incumbent, as evidenced by Schneider barely eking out a win against a Republican freshman in a huge Democratic year. This will obviously not be a huge Democratic year. And Quinn is under-performing most of the rest of the ticket pretty much everywhere else. He could turn out to be a significant drag.

Your thoughts on this race?