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It’s simple math: Why the wealthy would much prefer a flat tax increase

Wednesday, Oct 14, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* If you click here, you can calculate what your state income tax would be if the governor’s graduated income tax plan is implemented.

The math does not favor the wealthy. For instance, if your state-based adjusted gross annual income is $100 million, your taxes will rise by $3,040,000 under the “Fair Tax.”

* Gov. Pritzker and others have long warned that if the graduated income tax fails at the ballot box, then the state’s flat income tax would likely have to be increased by at least a percentage point.

In that one-point flat-tax scenario, the aforementioned $100 million earner would see their current state income tax bill rise by $1 million, from $4,950,000 to $5,950,000. While still an increase, that’s a savings of $2 million a year over the proposed graduated income tax rate. Pretty darned sweet.

Even if the flat tax is increased by two points, that $100 million earner would still save a million bucks a year compared to the graduated income tax rate.

It’s just a no-brainer for the self-interest of the super-wealthy. I don’t blame them one bit for fighting it.

* So, color me skeptical of claims like this…

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s cousin Jennifer Pritzker donated $500,000 on Tuesday to a group pushing for the defeat of the governor’s signature agenda item on the Nov. 3 ballot — a proposed state constitutional amendment to impose a graduated-rate income tax.

“There is evidence that the tax hike amendment could eventually raise taxes on the middle and working classes. With so many families and small businesses struggling to recover from the ravages of the pandemic, raising taxes is not a financial solution Illinoisans can afford to enact,” said Jennifer Pritzker, like her cousin a wealthy heir to the Hyatt Hotel fortune.

Please.

…Adding… For the “what about” people in comments, this same argument applies to $10 million AGR or $2 million AGR. Makes no difference. They’re gonna pay less when the flat tax is increased vs. a new graduated income tax.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** 2,862 new cases, 49 additional deaths, 1,974 in hospitals, 4.6 percent positivity rate, southern Illinois’ rate drops a bit, IDPH releases holiday safety guidance

Wednesday, Oct 14, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Highest number of hospitalizations since June 11. Press release…

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 2,862 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 49 additional confirmed deaths.

Adams County: 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s
Christian County: 1 male 60s
Coles County: 1 male 80s
Cook County: 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 3 males 90s
DeKalb County: 1 female 60s
DuPage County: 2 females 80s
Ford County: 1 female 80s
Franklin County: 1 female 100+
Jefferson County: 1 male 70s
Jersey County: 1 female 90s
Jo Daviess County: 1 female 90s
Kane County: 1 male 80s
Knox County: 2 females 80s, 1 male 80s
Logan County: 2 male 80s
Madison County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 90s
Marion County: 1 male 80s
Marshall County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s
Peoria County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Randolph County: 1 male 80s
Rock Island County: 2 males 60s
Sangamon County: 1 male 50s, 2 males 70s
St. Clair County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Vermilion County: 1 male 80s
Will County: 1 female 60s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 2 female 90s
Winnebago County: 1 female 40s, 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Woodford County: 1 female 60s

Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 327,605 cases, including 9,074 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from October 7 – October 13 is 4.6%. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 52,669 specimens for a total of 6,463,923. As of last night, 1,974 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 390 patients were in the ICU and 153 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.

Beginning today, IDPH is adjusting how data for Region 6, east central Illinois, is reported to most accurately capture spread across the region. Champaign County and its data will continue to be included in Region 6, but University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign saliva testing will be broken out separately. This will allow us to better identify testing needs and trends in the region.

Starting tomorrow, IDPH will begin including both molecular and antigen tests in the number of statewide total test performed in Illinois. Previously, due to the limited number of antigen tests and limited information about antigen test accuracy, antigen tests were not included in the total number (which comprised less than 1% of total tests performed). Antigen tests, like BinaxNOW™, are now becoming more readily available, therefore, IDPH will include both molecular and antigen tests in its total number of tests starting October 15, 2020.

Following guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH is now reporting separately both confirmed and probable cases and deaths on its website. Reporting probable cases will help show the potential burden of COVID-19 illness and efficacy of population-based non-pharmaceutical interventions. IDPH will update these data once a week.

*All data are provisional and will change. In order to rapidly report COVID-19 information to the public, data are being reported in real-time. Information is constantly being entered into an electronic system and the number of cases and deaths can change as additional information is gathered. Information for a death previously reported has changed, therefore, today’s numbers have been adjusted. For health questions about COVID-19, call the hotline at 1-800-889-3931 or email dph.sick@illinois.gov.

* Southern Illinois’ Region 5 hit the 8 percent positivity rate yesterday, but it dropped back down to 7.7 percent today. Gov. Pritzker warned today that three days above an average 8 percent positivity rate would trigger mitigations.

* Related…

* These Chicagoans Had Coronavirus And Never Got Better: ‘Long-Haulers’ Face Bizarre, Painful Symptoms After Recovery

* IDPH: Holiday Season Safety Tips

*** UPDATE *** Press release…

The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today reported 26 counties in Illinois are considered to be at a warning level for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). A county enters a warning level when two or more COVID-19 risk indicators that measure the amount of COVID-19 increase.

Twenty-six counties are currently reported at a warning level – Cass, Christian, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford, Effingham, Fayette, Henderson, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lake, Lee, Mason, Massac, Pulaski, Richland, Saline, Shelby, Union, Vermilion, Whiteside, Winnebago, Warren.

Although the reasons for counties reaching a warning level varies, some of the common factors for an increase in cases and outbreaks are associated with large gatherings and events, bars and clubs, weddings and funerals, university and college parties as well as college sports teams, family gatherings, long-term care facilities, correctional centers, schools, and cases among the community at large, especially people in their 20s.

Public health officials are observing businesses blatantly disregarding mitigation measures, people not social distancing, gathering in large groups, and not using face coverings. Mayors, local law enforcement, state’s attorneys, and other community leaders can be influential in ensuring citizens and businesses follow best practices.

Several counties are taking swift action to help slow spread of the virus, including increasing testing opportunities, stressing the importance of testing to providers, hiring additional contact tracers, working with schools, and meeting with local leaders.

After learning of an individual who tested positive for COVID-19 and visited a bar, the Whiteside County Health Department (WCHD) worked with the business and quickly alerted the community of potential exposures, helping limit spread of the virus. Additionally, WCHD provides pre-event consultations for establishments planning events that may draw larger crowds. Pre-event consultations include, educating businesses about the importance of masking and social distancing, as well as reviewing emergency rules, and guidance, and other ways to keep attendees and the community safe.

IDPH uses numerous indicators when determining if a county is experiencing stable COVID-19 activity, or if there are warning signs of increased COVID-19 risk in the county. A county is considered at the warning level when at least two of the following metrics triggers a warning.

New cases per 100,000 people. If there are more than 50 new cases per 100,000 people in the county, this triggers a warning.
Number of deaths. This metric indicates a warning when the weekly number of deaths increases more than 20% for two consecutive weeks.
Weekly test positivity. This metric indicates a warning when the 7-day test positivity rate rises above 8%.
ICU availability. If there are fewer than 20% of intensive care units available in the region, this triggers a warning.
Weekly emergency department visits. This metric indicates a warning when the weekly percent of COVID-19-like-illness emergency department visits increase by more than 20% for two consecutive weeks.
Weekly hospital admissions. A warning is triggered when the weekly number of hospital admissions for COVID-19-like-illness increases by more than 20% for two consecutive weeks.
Tests performed. This metric is used to provide context and indicate if more testing is needed in the county.
Clusters. This metric looks at the percent of COVID-19 cases associated with clusters or outbreaks and is used to understand large increase in cases.

These metrics are intended to be used for local level awareness to help local leaders, businesses, local health departments, and the public make informed decisions about personal and family gatherings, as well as what activities they choose to do. The metrics are updated weekly, from the Sunday-Saturday of the prior week.

A map and information of each county’s status can be found on the IDPH website at https://www.dph.illinois.gov/countymetrics.