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Gov. Rauner hugely exaggerated state deficit, bill backlog today

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Rauner today at an event…

This ain’t rocket science. And we keep having unbalanced budgets. We still have an unbalanced budget, even though they overrode my veto on a tax hike last year. We’re still $3 billion dollars in a deficit. This is nuts. Totally nuts.

$3 billion?

* Gov. Rauner today during a press conference in his Statehouse office…

I vetoed the budget because even after the tax hike it was still out of balance. We’re still running billions of dollars of a deficit. This is fiscal irresponsibility at its worst.

* OK, the Governor’s Office of Management and budget recently told the credit ratings agencies that the state will run a general funds deficit of $590 million this fiscal year.

However, because we’re now paying down the Medicaid bill backlog with bonding, one-time federal reimbursements are netting the state an additional $1.2 billion. Factor in one-time borrowing proceeds to pay off other parts of the bill backlog and subtract carry-over costs from last fiscal year’s unappropriated spending and it works out to be a $2.025 billion “surplus,” according to GOMB’s own figures. Yeah, that’s not truly a surplus, but it’s also not a $3 billion operating deficit. Not even close.

* Speaking of the backlog…

Rauner says that the bill backlog is "still climbing" after legislators overrode his veto and passed a bipartisan budget.

REALITY: The bill backlog is now HALF of what it was at its peak last year - in spite of Rauner's veto (per @ILComptroller)#twill #ilgov pic.twitter.com/qEuPLuOUYx

— 26% Approval Rating (@IllinoisWorking) April 12, 2018

Yep. He did indeed say that.

* From that same GOMB report to the ratings agencies…

By the end of FY18, the bill backlog is expected to be approximately $7.7 billion

That’s $200 million lower than it is today.

…Adding… From retiring GOP Rep. Steve Andersson, who voted for the tax hike and budget last year…

Well we know the Governor isn’t very good on facts, or accuracy or truth. I’m glad the facts are showing what we knew when we overrode him!

* The governor also said today that he was not insisting on his pension cost-shift proposal to schools and higher ed. As long as the final budget agreement is balanced, he said, he’ll sign it. That idea was just a placeholder anyway. He knew he couldn’t pass it, so it was basically designed to kick the can to the General Assembly.

And House Republican Leader Jim Durkin even admitted yesterday that his own caucus is “lukewarm” on the issue…

So, they’re gonna have to find a way to patch that $630 million hole.

35 Comments

*** UPDATED x4 - Ives denies any promise to meet again *** ILGOP unity watch

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Pantagraph…

Rauner also took time to address Ives’ claim that Rauner signed legislation to make Illinois a “sanctuary state.” He said law enforcement in fact asked him last summer to sign the Trust Act, which stops police from arresting residents based solely on their immigration status, because they feared Democrats would pass something more restrictive in its place.

The attack was a centerpiece of Ives’ campaign for governor, which came within three percentage points of defeating the better-funded and incumbent Rauner.

“I am passionately against sanctuary states and against illegal immigration,” he said Wednesday.

* Illinois Review…

Upset that the only choice Republicans in the 3rd CD have on the November ballot is a known Nazi sympathizer, a group of Cook County GOP members of the Jewish faith called on Cook County GOP Chairman Sean Morrison to step down in a letter sent to Cook County GOP committeemen

* SJ-R editorial…

Thumbs Down: To Gov. Bruce Rauner and state Rep. Jeanne Ives for not contacting each other since Election Day.

It’s been more than three weeks since the two battled it out on the ballot for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. The two still haven’t talked. Frankly, the person who loses usually calls to concede the race. It seems clear Ives isn’t interested in doing that. Rauner also hasn’t shown any desire to mend fences.

No one expects these two to be buddies. But even Little League players shake hands and say “good game” after the innings have all been played. The two primary opponents need to talk and put this in the past.

* The electronic Twitter machine…

Gov. Bruce Rauner and Rep. Jeanne Ives were spotted together at Obed and Isaac's Microbrewery in Springfield. I showed up just in time to wonder whose SUV I saw pulling out of the lot at 8:53 p.m., and to be bitter about my inability to run a plate. GOP unity in the works?

— Rae Hodge (@RaeHodge) April 12, 2018

A Rauner spokeswoman said they “ran into” each other there and it was not a planned meeting, but they did chat. https://t.co/ywr3jN9I5x

— Monique Garcia (@moniquegarcia) April 12, 2018

*** UPDATE 1 *** With a hat tip to a commenter, somebody has a new website called LyingIves.com. The site was created on January 29th, but it appears to have been udpdated since the primary ended…

Ives has a long history of truth distorting and contempt for those she disagrees with.

Her colleagues call her abrasive and stubborn.

She’s only passed five inconsequential bills in the General Assembly.

She ran one of the most negative campaigns in Illinois history

Now she demands the Republican Party cater to her whims.

We are better than this.

There is no “paid for” disclosure on the site that I could find, but whoever is running it says: “This site is dedicated to exposing her lies till she leaves office.”

*** UPDATE 2 *** This was a good idea. He needs to start flipping public perception on Ives. She’s the one, after all, who never conceded to him…

RAUNER on his encounter with IVES at Springfield restaurant: "I went over to say hello and to wish her well and to tell her I look forward to getting together with her"#twill #ilgov

— 26% Approval Rating (@IllinoisWorking) April 12, 2018

*** UPDATE 3 *** Greg Hinz…

Rauner, in an interview I had with him today on another subject, confirmed that he and Ives did indeed have a brief meeting yesterday.

“We spoke last night. I saw her at (Obed & Isaac’s Microbrewery),” Rauner told me. “I went over to shake hands, and we promised to get together soon.”

Attempting to confirm.

*** UPDATE 3 *** From Rep. Ives’ spokesperson…

She was there for dinner with representatives from the Greater O’Hare Association and Tom Morrison.

Rauner walked through the restaurant.

There was a perfunctory greeting, and no further discussion. No such plans were made or suggested

42 Comments

It doesn’t look like much got done at the leaders meeting

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Cullerton…

Leaders meeting is over. President Cullerton said Rauner wants to spend money from the tax hike he vetoed. Called it “hypocritical.”

— Monique Garcia (@moniquegarcia) April 12, 2018

Cullerton added his own demands, including Rauner’s signature on gun control measures. https://t.co/bntVLpoJCJ

— Monique Garcia (@moniquegarcia) April 12, 2018

* From Speaker Madigan…

House Speaker Michael J. Madigan issued the following statement Thursday, following a meeting between legislative leaders and the governor:

“Today I advised the governor and the other leaders that we are already at work on the Fiscal Year 2019 budget with our colleagues across the aisle, just as we did a year ago when Republicans and Democrats stood together to end the Rauner budget crisis. If the governor is finally ready to accept responsibility for the management of the state and be an honest partner in trying to pass a budget, we welcome him to this process.

“In the past, Governor Rauner has resorted to severe cuts targeting women, children and the elderly. Democrats cannot accept this. If the governor’s agenda is to push more of his extreme cuts to health care, senior services, and resources for our most at-risk residents, or if he intends to again move the goalposts and create chaos, he should stay on the sidelines and allow serious leaders to continue working cooperatively to address the challenges facing our state.”

…Adding… The governor sent a letter to the leaders today asking them to appoint “budgeteers” so negotiations can begin. Click here.

…Adding… Senate GOP Leader Bill Brady said the “progress” today was two-fold: 1) The Democrats agreed to appoint budgeteers; 2) The Dems agree to certify a revenue estimate.

They coulda got that done by pony express.

…Adding… Raw audio of Cullerton’s media availability is here.

21 Comments

*** UPDATED x1 - Rauner calls on Greitens to step down *** DGA wants Rauner to speak out about Greitens

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release…

DGA Calls on Rauner to Renounce Greitens After Bombshell Legislative Report

Missouri Governor Appeared in Rauner TV Ad; New Report Accuses Greitens of Forced Sexual Encounter

Today, the Democratic Governors Association called on Bruce Rauner to renounce the endorsement of Missouri Governor Eric Greitens, following a Missouri House special committee investigative report that accused Greitens of a forced sexual encounter and attempt to blackmail his hairdresser.

Governor Bruce Rauner had Greitens appear in a television ad across Illinois. He has refused to renounce Greitens’ endorsement since the allegations first came to light, saying he wouldn’t take a position saying “those allegations need to be investigated.”

“The allegations have been investigated and it’s time for Bruce Rauner to do the right thing and call on Eric Greitens to step down,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “Bruce Rauner should clearly say that this abusive behavior is unacceptable and renounce his political ally Eric Greitens.”

Some background is here. The full report contains some graphic stuff, so beware if you’re at work. Click here to read it.

…Adding… That Rauner ad is still online…

By blocking my reforms, Madigan is ensuring that Illinoisans continue to struggle. pic.twitter.com/Xs3xH10HHR

— Bruce Rauner (@BruceRauner) October 31, 2017

*** UPDATE *** Rauner wants Greitens to resign…

.@GovRauner calls the credible findings against MO Gov Eric Greitens “terrible” and “very disturbing” and echoes calls for Greitens to step down. pic.twitter.com/CroeziVQCm

— Mark Maxwell (@WCIA3Mark) April 12, 2018

17 Comments

Morning Consult poll: Rauner approve/disapprove at 26/60

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Yikes…

Morning Consult released their latest tracking poll of governors’ approval ratings, and it’s bad news for Bruce Rauner. The failed governor has a net approval rating of -34, the lowest of any incumbent running for re-election.

With his approval rating plummeting to 26% and disapproval rating soaring to 60%, Morning Consult singled Rauner out in their analysis:

Rauner dropped 10 percentage points in the first three months of the year. He emerged victorious in a March 20 primary contest against state Rep. Jeanne Ives, winning by almost 3 points. Three in 5 Illinois voters disapprove of Rauner’s job performance as he looks to hold off Democratic candidate J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire philanthropist and venture capitalist, in November.

“After Bruce Rauner’s disastrous record almost lost him the primary, the most vulnerable incumbent is stumbling through the general election and losing support by the day,” said Pritzker campaign communications director Galia Slayen. “Illinoisans know they can’t afford another four years of a failed governor that fatally mismanages the Quincy Veterans’ Home and drives the state economy into the ground.”

The poll is here. But, as always, be a bit wary. Its methodology is unusual.

According to Morning Consult, Rauner is the third most unpopular governor in the country and the most unpopular of those running for reelection this year.

* Almost exactly one year ago today, Morning Consult’s poll had Rauner trending upward…

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) has improved his standing in traditionally blue Illinois. Forty-two percent of Illinoisans now approve of Rauner, up from 33 percent in September, while his disapproval rating has dropped from 56 percent to 49 percent over the same time period.

Then he fired his top staff and all heck broke loose.

* Some alternate history from a purged Raunerite…

He doesn’t fire us, he goes on tour to slam the GA. Runs new ads playing off his veto of the tax hike. No bad news all summer. He goes into education fight with leverage, issues clean AV of the bailout and runs ads saying Chicago is trying to shut down our schools. Clean AV of the abortion bill as promised and planned - go on offense calling on Madigan not to play politics with the right to choose. Never gets a primary. Runs ads against JB all winter. Emerges from primary stronger than ever.

Maybe. But even if all that worked out as planned, he’d still face a tough reelection because of the national headwinds.

The bottom line, though, is Rauner wouldn’t be nearly in such bad shape right now if he hadn’t decided to blow up his own office and campaign staffs last year (twice).

…Adding… Vice News article on the 2014 governor’s race…

Over the past year, Quinn has done little to nothing to fix his image, and at 31 percent, Quinn’s job approval numbers trail only Rhode Island chief executive Lincoln Chafee among governors, making him the least-liked incumbent governor facing reelection this fall. […]

“The only thing the [Quinn campaign] can do is try to beat up Bruce Rauner—make him as unattractive as possible,” said Illinois political strategist Patrick Brady, a former chairman of the Illinois Republican Party who has been described as a Rauner supporter. “You haven’t seen any ads on what Pat Quinn is going to do in the next four years… All you’ve seen is ‘Bruce Rauner has horns.’ That’s their whole campaign strategy. They will literally spend tens of millions of dollars trying to convince Illinois voters that Bruce Rauner is evil.” […]

“He’s just not a good governor,” said Brady. “Being governor requires a lot of things. And he just hasn’t shown it. We pay for it and we’re really at a tipping point right now. If we don’t get our fiscal house in order, we are not going to be in a place where we can attract good jobs to keep people here.”

Despite his proclivity for extravagance, Rauner has crafted a campaign that promises much-needed changes on pensions, taxes, and government spending. But like many campaign promises, Rauner’s reforms are non-committal, and will likely be almost impossible to accomplish.

Man, that’s eery.

57 Comments

*** LIVE *** Session coverage

Thursday, Apr 12, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Watch it all in real time with ScribbleLive…

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