*** UPDATE 1 *** Comptroller Mendoza…
On our 701st day without a budget, two more bond rating agencies gave Illinois the 7th and 8th credit downgrades since Gov. Rauner took office 2 ½ years ago. Before he took office, Illinois had been paying its backlog of bills down. It got down to less than $5 billion. In just two years of his failed leadership, he has about tripled that stack of unpaid bills to $14.5 billion and growing. Both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s dropped the state to one grade above junk status Thursday.
While all sides could try harder to compromise toward a budget solution as the General Assembly has with every previous governor, business groups and independent third parties put the blame for Illinois’ crisis mainly on Governor Rauner. Standard & Poor’s said in its last assessment: “Illinois’ fiscal crisis is, in our view, a man-made byproduct of policy ultimatums placed on the state budget process.” In other words, Governor Rauner has created and now owns this crisis.
In the meantime, our office will continue triaging how to make payments to Illinois’ struggling schools, nursing homes, hospice centers and aging facilities from a near-empty bank account. We’re about to reach the breaking point at which court-ordered payments will exceed the state’s revenues. Illinois’ sick, elderly, young, and most vulnerable are paying the price. This crisis is untenable, unconscionable, and unnecessary. It’s time that the Governor stop campaigning and take responsibility for his failures and fulfill his constitutional mandate to introduce a balanced budget.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Treasurer Frerichs…
“Two credit downgrades in 24 hours further underscores the need for a full, balanced budget,” Frerichs said. “My warnings were ignored and credit agencies have responded. We need a bipartisan budget now to end this crisis.”
*** UPDATE 3 *** Illinois Working Together Campaign Director Jake Lewis…
“In light of today’s downgrades, the seventh and eighth downgrades of Gov. Bruce Rauner’s tenure, we are reminded of Rauner’s June 3, 2013 tweet:
Ouch.
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* Like the S&P downgrade earlier today, this new rating is just a single notch above junk bond status…
* Press release…
Moody’s Investors Service has lowered the rating on the State of Illinois’ general obligation (GO) bonds to Baa3 from Baa2, amid a prolonged political impasse that has prevented progress on a growing pension deficit and an increasing backlog of unpaid bills. With this action, ratings of several state debt types linked to the GO rating also were lowered: Build Illinois Bonds backed by sales tax revenues, to Baa3 from Baa2; the Metropolitan Pier & Exposition Authority’s McCormick Place project bonds, to Ba1 from Baa3; and the state’s Civic Center program bonds, also to Ba1 from Baa3. Debt outstanding for all affected securities totals about $31.5 billion, but not all outstanding Build Illinois and Metropolitan Pier issues are rated by Moody’s. The outlook applicable to the state and these associated credits remains negative.
Legislative gridlock has sidetracked efforts not only to address pension needs but also to achieve fiscal balance, allowing a backlog of bills to approach $15 billion, or about 40% of the state’s operating budget. During the past year of fruitless negotiations and partisan wrangling, fundamental credit challenges have intensified enough to warrant a downgrade, regardless of whether a fiscal compromise is reached in an extended session. As the regular legislative session elapsed, political barriers to progress appeared to harden, indicating both the severity of the state’s challenges and the political difficulty of advocating their solutions. Extending the impasse, and the state’s embedded operating deficit of at least $5 billion (or 15% of general fund revenue) would signal further pressure on the state’s credit position. But the state’s credit could stabilize at the current level in the event of a political consensus that more closely aligns revenues and spending, without relying on unsustainable fiscal measures.
The downgrade to Baa3 for Illinois’ GO bonds is consistent with the state’s intensifying pressure from pension liabilities; by our calculation, the state’s unfunded pension liability (Moody’s adjusted net pension liability, or ANPL) for its five major plans in aggregate grew 25% in the year ended June 30, 2016, to $251 billion. The current rating also acknowledges intrinsic credit strengths, primarily the state’s sovereign powers over revenue and spending; a diverse and strong economic base with the long-term economic potential to provide for its liabilities, and statutory protections for bondholders, primarily requirements for monthly transfers in advance of semiannual debt service payment dates. During the past decade, the state’s governance framework has allowed practices that greatly offset these strengths. After eight downgrades in as many years, Illinois’ rating is an outlier among states, most of which are rated at least eight notches higher. The rating on the Build Illinois sales-tax revenue bonds is capped at the GO rating because of lack of sufficient segregation of pledged revenues from the state’s operating needs. The Met Pier and Civic Center program bonds are both rated a notch below the state GO bonds, because of the need for annual legislative appropriation of payments.
Rating Outlook
The state’s negative outlook is consistent with its potential for additional credit weakening because of a continuing political impasse that has left Illinois increasingly vulnerable to adverse revenue trends and severely underfunded retiree benefit plans.
Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade
Implementation of a realistic plan to provide long-term funding for pension obligations
Progress in reducing payment backlog and adoption of legal framework to prevent renewed build-up of unpaid bills
Enactment of recurring fiscal measures that support expectation of sustainable, structural balance
Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade
Continued increases in unfunded pension liabilities and indications of unwillingness to allocate sufficient resources to retiree benefits
Persistent and growing structural imbalance that pressures liquidity and increases payment backlog or bonded debt burden
Court rulings that increase the volume of payment obligations that are legally prioritized
Difficulty managing impact of any other adverse negative events, such as an unexpected economic downturn or reduction of federal Medicaid funding
Failure to enact legislation providing for timely payment of subject-to-appropriation debt
* Let’s revisit…
The governor said negotiations stalled over term limits, local government consolidation, workers’ compensation and a property tax freeze.
None of which were mentioned by Moody’s, of course.
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*** UPDATE 1 *** Tribune…
The governor also held Democrats responsible for Thursday’s rating cut.
“Madigan’s majority owns this downgrade because they didn’t even attempt to pass a balanced budget, get our pension liability under control, and other changes that would put Illinois on better financial footing,” said Eleni Demertzis, a spokeswoman for Rauner. “The governor will continue working toward a truly balanced budget with changes to our system to grow jobs and provide real and lasting property tax relief.”
“Her comment is typical Rauner incompetence, and that’s too bad,” said Steve Brown, a spokesman for Madigan.
*** UPDATE 2 *** Pritzker campaign…
“A day after Bruce Rauner once again failed to produce a budget, the Illinois economy is already feeling the devastating impacts,” said JB Pritzker. “Under Bruce Rauner’s failed leadership, Illinois’ general obligation debt is now a step away from junk, the lowest ever for a U.S State. What we’re seeing is a state economy in shambles as state debt skyrockets and Bruce Rauner stumbles past 700 days without a budget. This will have long term ramifications for the economy of our state and it will take years to clean up Rauner’s mess. We need a governor who understands how to get results in Springfield and it is clear that Bruce Rauner will never be up to the job.”
*** UPDATE 3 *** Kelly Welsh, President, Civic Committee of The Commercial Club of Chicago…
“The failure of Illinois leaders to pass a budget has – as predicted – resulted in immediate action to downgrade state bonds. Once again, the State of Illinois debt backlog increases and taxpayers are on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in unnecessary debt payments, while schools and universities are put at risk and our communities suffer from deteriorating social services. With “Bringing Illinois Back,” the Civic Committee provided a sensible framework for resolving this fiscal crisis, which required change and compromise from our government leaders in Springfield. Their failure to act is inflicting serious damage on our state.”
*** UPDATE 4 *** Sen. Daniel Biss…
“Infuriating. Wall Street banks will now get even more of our tax dollars because Rauner and Madigan have failed again on the budget.”
[ *** End Of Updates *** ]
* Bloomberg…
Illinois had its bond rating cut to a step above junk by S&P Global Ratings because of the long-running political stalemate over the budget that’s kept the state from dealing with its chronic deficits.
The company warned that the rating could be cut again, which would make Illinois the first state since at least 1970 with a below investment grade. S&P said debt backed by state appropriations, including those issued by its sports authority, were cut to BB+, one step into junk.
“The rating actions largely reflect the severe deterioration of Illinois’ fiscal condition, a byproduct of its stalemated budget negotiations, now approaching the start of a third fiscal year,” S&P analyst Gabriel Petek said in a statement. “The unrelenting political brinkmanship now poses a threat to the timely payment of the state’s core priority payments.”
* Press release…
S&P Global Ratings lowered its rating on Illinois’ general obligation (GO) bonds to ‘BBB-’ from ‘BBB’. We also lowered our ratings to ‘BB+’ from ‘BBB-’ on the state’s appropriation debt, including bonds issued by the Illinois Sports Facility Authority and the Metropolitan Pier & Exposition Authority. Finally, we lowered to ‘BB-’ from ‘BB’ our ratings on the state’s moral obligation-backed debt. The ratings are on CreditWatch with negative implications.
“The rating actions largely reflect the severe deterioration of Illinois’ fiscal condition, a byproduct of its stalemated budget negotiations, now approaching the start of a third fiscal year,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Gabriel Petek. “We placed the ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications because, in our view, the unrelenting political brinkmanship now poses a threat to the timely payment of the state’s core priority payments.”
We also believe that Illinois is now at risk of entering a negative credit spiral, where downgraded credit ratings would trigger contingent demands on state liquidity, further exacerbating its fiscal distress. Although CreditWatch typically has a 90-day time horizon, we anticipate resolving Illinois’ placement around the start of its 2018 fiscal year, which begins on July 1. If lawmakers fail to reach agreement on a budget with provisions designed to reduce the state’s structural deficit, it’s likely we will again lower the ratings. In our view, the ongoing budget impasse has increased the nonpayment risk associated with Illinois’ obligations that require a budget appropriation before they can be funded. We now view these payment obligations as having speculative-grade characteristics.
The ‘BBB-’ GO rating reflects our view of the state’s:
• Large and growing structural budget deficit now projected to top $7 billion (18% of expenditures) in fiscal 2018;
• Unpaid bills that have mushroomed to the equivalent of more than one-third of annual general funds’ expenditures;
• Elevated fixed costs and depleted budget reserves, the combination of which renders the state vulnerable to even more fiscal pressure when the economy enters a slowdown;
• Exposure to stepped-up interest costs related to variable-rate debt and swap termination payments tied to rating triggers;
• Distressed pension funding levels that will require substantial contribution increases in the coming years; and
• Inability to deliver adequate and timely funding for various important public services and institutions as a consequence of dysfunctional budget politics.
Partially offsetting these weaknesses is our view of:
• Well-established priority of payment for GO debt service established by statute;
• Ability to adjust certain cash disbursements to stabilize cash flow and to access substantial amounts of cash reserves on deposit in other funds for debt service, if needed, and for operations if authorized by statute;
• Deep and diverse economic base anchored by the Chicago metropolitan statistical area, though with a growth outlook that is expected to trail the nation’s through the next five years;
• Above-average income levels; and
• Substantial ability to adjust revenues, expenditures, and disbursements–albeit with a current lack of agreement on how to do so.
* Meanwhile…
S&P Global Ratings lowered to ‘AA-’ from ‘AAA’ its rating on Illinois’ Build Illinois sales tax revenue bonds. The rating is on CreditWatch with negative implications.
“The rating actions reflect our view that, with the negative pressure on the state’s creditworthiness intensifying, the risk of interference with the flow of revenues pledged to the repayment of its Build Illinois sales tax bonds has increased,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Gabriel Petek. “The CreditWatch placement reflects the likelihood that we would lower the rating further if the state’s general obligation rating were downgraded again.”
Our views are balanced against the fact that debt service, at about $325 million in fiscal 2017 and declining thereafter, is equivalent to less than 10% of the state’s structural budget deficit in its general funds. We continue to believe the state will adhere to legal provisions that insulate debt service on the bonds from its budget impasse. However, we believe the risk of a disruption is somewhat greater with the state’s overall fiscal condition experiencing more acute levels of distress.
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* SJ-R…
Illinois lawmakers late Wednesday approved a school funding reform measure, the first significant overhaul of the state’s system of funding public schools in decades.
The Senate gave final approval to Senate Bill 1 by a 35-22 vote. The House approved the bill earlier in the evening.
The legislation can now be sent to Gov. Bruce Rauner, where it faces an uncertain future. Republican lawmakers complained that the bill was changed in the House at the last minute to give hundreds of millions of dollars in additional money to Chicago schools.
The bill was the culmination of years of negotiating by Sen. Andy Manar, D-Bunker Hill. His goal was to change the school funding formula so that more state money is directed at the neediest school districts.
The General Assembly’s website has been down this morning, but the Senate Democrats filed a motion to reconsider the vote last night after SB 1 passed.
* I asked what the hold was about, and here’s their texted response…
Slow down the process and dial down the rhetoric in hopes of getting it signed by the governor who promised to overhaul state education funding.
I was also told that the hold would last only up to 30 days. ADDING: There was a miscommunication. The hold stops the 30-day clock to send legislation to the governor. It can be held indefinitely. I thought that was what was going on, but it was a late night and an early, hectic morning. Sorry.
*** UPDATE *** Sun-Times…
Governor Bruce Rauner said Thursday that he would not sign an education funding reform bill that passed both houses of the Illinois General Assembly Wednesday night just before the legislative session ended. […]
“In its current form, absolutely not,” Rauner told the Chicago Sun-Times. “The amendment on there really amounts to an unfair-to-Illinois-taxpayers bailout of CPS.” […]
Rauner, however, said bills drafted by State Sen. Andy Manar, D-Bunker Hill, and Sen. Jason Barickman, R-Bloomington, should be used as a “base for a deal.”
“We were going down that road but then the majority in the House kind of hijacked the process, added a big addendum, a big amendment onto Manar’s bill with massive more financing for Chicago Public Schools. That’s not fair for the statewide taxpayers. So we’ve got to get that out,” Rauner said. “Within the context of the bills I think coming up with a balance that works for everybody and gets more resources for Chicago Public Schools, I’m supportive of that. So hopefully we can keep working to get it done.”
* I asked Senate President Cullerton’s spokesman for a response…
This is the kind of premature rejection from the governor we’re hoping to avoid. Hopefully, cooler heads will prevail.
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