Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Updated Posts
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here. To inquire about advertising on CapitolFax.com, click here.
Moody’s frets over a “self-reinforcing cycle of population loss and economic stagnation”

Thursday, Jan 5, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From David Jacobson at Moody’s Investors Service…

On p. 5 of its new Weekly Credit Outlook for Public Finance released today, Moody’s notes the State of Illinois (rated Baa2/negative outlook) has experienced a third consecutive annual population drop in 2016, a credit negative underscoring tepid growth trends that will complicate efforts to enact a balanced budget and keep up with mounting pension funding pressures. From 2013-16 as the national population increased 2.2%, Illinois shrank by 0.6% as thousands of residents departed for other states. Illinois was one of only four states to see population declines each year for the period 2014 through 2016, according to Census Bureau data released on December 20.

Net migration has had a negative impact on populations in 31 states since the last census, while helping population growth primarily in states that serve as retirement havens or that have strong economies. But the case of Illinois appears more severe; its annual outflow of residents steadily worsened during the past three years. Based on the Census Bureau’s state-to-state migration estimates for 2015 (the most recent available), many of the top destination states for those leaving Illinois were adjacent or nearby states, such as Indiana (Aaa/stable) or Michigan (Aa1/stable), which both featured faster job growth. Other top destinations for those leaving Illinois included Arizona (Aa2/stable), California (Aa3/stable) and Florida (Aa1/stable).

Population loss can be a cause, as well as an effect, of economic deterioration. A self-reinforcing cycle of population loss and economic stagnation could greatly complicate Illinois’ efforts to stabilize its finances. Even assuming the state reaches a consensus on addressing its current operating deficit and benefits from steady economic growth, Illinois’ pension funding requirements as a share of budget likely will rise to 30% (from about 23% currently) in coming years.

Moody’s declaration of “credit positive” or “credit negative” does not connote a rating or outlook change. It is indicative of the impact of a distinct event or development as one of many credit factors affecting the issuer.

Pension payments rising to 30 percent of the budget is just downright chilling.

We need a budget and some growth yesterday.

* Related…

* Caterpillar might end machine making at Aurora factory

  56 Comments      


More from the Rauner teevee rounds

Thursday, Jan 5, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Hard-hitting journamalism

Governor Bruce Rauner spoke on-camera to ABC7 for about 10 minutes in his office on Wednesday. No topic was off limits. He discussed the state’s budget crisis, his relationship with House Speaker Michael Madigan, and what grade he would give himself as governor so far.

RAUNER: The simple fact is both sides need to want an agreement. If you don’t want an agreement, it won’t happen. That’s part of negotiations.
BACA: You are saying you want an agreement.
RAUNER: Boy, very much so.
BACA: But you’re saying the Democrats do not.
RAUNER: They don’t want any change, of any type.

#FacePalm.

To be fair, the station did go to Madigan’s district office and his 13th Ward home to get a response, but was told Madigan didn’t have time in his schedule to meet with a reporter.

Madigan’s people constantly complain (including on this blog) that reporters don’t provide the other side to Rauner’s statements, but then they don’t cooperate with reporters when Rauner is doing yet another one of his TV appearance rounds.

#FacePalm2.

By the way, Rauner gave himself a “very high grade” on “the things that we control,”and gave himself an “incomplete” on “things that the legislature controls.”

#FacePalm3.

* And it was all Turnaround Agenda all the time

He’s the state’s chief executive, but rarely talks publicly of the scandalous violence in Illinois’ biggest city: hit by 4,300 shootings and nearly 800 killings last year.

FOX 32: Do you agree it’s a crisis, the shootings and killings in Chicago?

“It’s a massive tragedy. It’s just heartbreaking what’s happening in many of our neighborhoods,” Rauner said.

Rauner says his pro-business, turnaround agenda would help reduce Chicago violence

FOX 32: Should you be dropping everything else and focusing on stopping the killing?

“Um, so the question is, “what’s the answer?” Everybody’s got different ideas,” Rauner said. “There’s a lack of economic opportunity. Young people don’t see a future for themselves in so many of these neighborhoods. We have massively high unemployment. Massive unemployment in many neighborhoods in Chicago and around the state. And we have the worst-funded schools in low-income neighborhoods of any state in America. And I’m working to change those two facts, because that will have the long-term impact to keep our neighborhoods safe.”

People need to live in the short-term, too, governor. Long-term is certainly necessary, but what are you doing for them right now during this very real crisis? That was the question.

#FacePalm4.

…Adding… Reuters

Ortiz and Garcia were victims of the 38th shooting on Chicago-area expressways in 2016, a record-high number for a city stung by a murder rate not seen in two decades. […]

Political gridlock in Springfield is also a factor, said Joe Moon, president of the Illinois Troopers Lodge 41 Fraternal Order of Police, the union representing state troopers.

Feuding between Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and Democrats who control the legislature has kept the state without a full operating budget since July 2015. That meant no cadet hires in 2015 and 2016, and 2017 remains in limbo as well, state police said.

Since 2000, the number of sworn officers has declined steadily to just over 1,600 from around 2,100, Moon said.

State police said the budget impasse had no impact on the force’s work. Governor Rauner’s spokeswoman, Catherine Kelly, declined to comment beyond what state police said.

  24 Comments      


Rauner again strains all credulity

Thursday, Jan 5, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* NBC 5

Madigan, Rauner’s primary political adversary, is up for reelection as house speaker next week. The governor claimed Wednesday that he’s staying out of the election altogether.

“I’m not getting involved in any of the General Assembly’s decisions on their leadership,” Rauner told NBC 5.

However, the Illinois Republican Party has gotten involved in the race, launching a “Boss Madigan” blog targeting Illinois Democrats with ties to the longtime speaker. Rauner dumped millions into the Illinois Republican Party’s coiffeurs in the lead-up to the 2016 general election, but claimed Wednesday that he doesn’t “run” the party.

“I support it,” he said. “We need a two-party system. We were a one-party state for a long time.”

I just find it impossible to believe that a guy like that would spend money like that and not involve himself in the least.

…Adding… I meant to post this snippet and forgot

When asked about re-running for election next year, he said that’s a conversation for another day, but he’s persistent.

He just dumped $50 million of his own money into his campaign account and yet he doesn’t want to talk about it. Lovely.

* Meanwhile, I told subscribers about this yesterday

As for the race for speaker, House Minority Leader Jim Durkin confirmed Wednesday that he planned to throw in his hat for the position, which he did two years ago. Typically, the top vote-getter in the chamber is elected speaker and the runner-up is minority leader. After the November election, the GOP caucus voted to re-elect Durkin as minority leader and by caucus rules, members will be bound by those votes next week. If a Democrat were to challenge Madigan, he or she would have needed Republicans to cross over.

State Rep. Kelly Cassidy, a Chicago Democrat, said Republican talk of ousting Madigan is nothing more than a distraction from the real issues facing the state.

“There’s a lot of folks talking stuff up as if there’s a bunch of candidates,” she said. “They’re generating emails everywhere, it is creating noise and distraction.”

  36 Comments      


« NEWER POSTS PREVIOUS POSTS »
* Faux outrage all around
* HB 2371 SA 2 Is A Needed Fix – Support Your Constituents By Passing The 340B Bill
* It’s just a bill
* Illinois Positioned To Become A National Leader On AI Safety
* Today's quotable
* Who Really Benefits From Swipe-Fee Restrictions?
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Good morning!
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
May 2026
April 2026
March 2026
February 2026
January 2026
December 2025
November 2025
October 2025
September 2025
August 2025
July 2025
June 2025
May 2025
April 2025
March 2025
February 2025
January 2025
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS | SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax | Advertise Here | Mobile Version | Contact Rich Miller