* Sun-Times…

But he said picking up four to six seats in the House would be an “OK night” for Rauner and it would move the needle slightly. But more importantly, it would give him leverage and prove that he’s the change agent he said he’d be.

Just an “OK night”?

C’mon, man.

Madigan has a strong Democratic map with incumbents he mostly chose. That map is so well-drawn that Madigan did not lose a single single House seat during the huge 2014 Republican wave which gave us Gov. Rauner.

And, no matter what happens nationally, this is a Democratic year in Illinois, unlike two years ago.

Madigan has spent about as much as Rauner on his candidates and has benefited from a multi-million-dollar statewide advertising blitz trashing the governor. Money is not the issue most people think it is.

Not to mention that Madigan has a far superior organization and ground game - two of the most important aspects of any campaign at this level.

* If Madigan loses six net seats, then that means Rauner’s “Because… Madigan!” campaign worked as planned. And that means the Democrats are gonna have to totally rethink everything, including Madigan’s party leadership, ahead of 2018, which (barring a Donald Trump victory today) will not be a favorable year like this year. Because if the message works this year, it will sure as heck work again in two years.

…Adding… From comments…

6 seats is halfway to majority - they have 47, the want to get to 60, so if they got halfway there in a Presidential year, I don’t see how they don’t finish the deal in 2018, unless Madigan retires, because he will have been proven toxic.

It’ll be tougher to get those other seats because they’re stronger districts. But the commenter isn’t wrong. Six net losses would be very bad news for Madigan.

* Related…

* Your Rauner vs. Madigan proxy battle scorecard