* Bloomberg plays with statistics, engages in false equivalency and jumps the gun in its story entitled “We’re not like Detroit? Not so fast”…

BIG, SCARY NUMBERS: Chicago’s unfunded liability from four pension funds is $20 billion and growing, hitting every city resident with an obligation of about $7,400. Detroit’s, whose population of about 689,000 is roughly a quarter of Chicago’s, had a retirement funding gap of $3.5 billion, meaning each resident was liable for $5,100.

For one thing, Chicagoans can afford more than broke, under-educated Detroit residents…

Detroit: Median household income, 2009-2013 $26,325
Chicago: Median household income, 2009-2013 $47,270

Detroit: Persons below poverty level, percent, 2009-2013 39.3%
Chicago: Persons below poverty level, percent, 2009-2013 22.6%

Detroit: Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2009-2013 $50,400
Chicago: Median value of owner-occupied housing units, 2009-2013 $233,200

Detroit: Bachelor’s degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 12.7%
Chicago: Bachelor’s degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2009-2013 34.2%

Detroit’s economy has been Iraq-style devastated for years.

Also, that unfunded liability is longterm debt unless all employees decide to retire tomorrow, which they won’t. The city absolutely must start paying down its debts, but it doesn’t have to do that all at once. It ain’t gonna be easy, there’s much pain ahead, but the screamers need to calm the heck down a bit.

* More drivel…

HOSTILE COURT: When Detroit filed for Chapter 9 in July 2013, a federal bankruptcy judge exerted his considerable powers and decreed that everyone—taxpayers, employees, bondholders and creditors alike—would get a haircut to settle the crisis. When the Illinois Supreme Court ruled on May 8, it said the state couldn’t cut pension benefits as part of a solution to restructure the state retirement system.

False equivalency. A state court is not a federal bankruptcy court. And this situation clearly hasn’t had a chance to play itself out yet. I mean, it’s been less than a week since the Supremes ruled. If you want to jump out your window, be my guest. I think you’re a fool, but go right ahead.

* Read on…

POLITICAL PARALYSIS: Just as Detroit slid into bankruptcy after decades of economic and actuarial warnings, Chicago politicians have watched the train wreck rumble toward them for more than a decade. During that time, they skipped pension payments and paid scant attention to the financial damage being done. In 10 years starting in 2002, the city increased its bonded debt by 84 percent, according to the Civic Federation, which tracks city finances. That added more than $1,300 to the tab of every Chicago resident.

There’s no doubt that Chicago has been paralyzed with the tax fear and that Daley and Emanuel over-borrowed. There’s also no doubt that Detroit’s economic problems have been far, far worse than Chicago’s. They couldn’t even afford to buy firefighters any equipment. The place had been a bombed-out ruin forever before it declared bankruptcy.

* Onward…

NO BAILOUT: Detroit’s bankruptcy filing allowed it to restructure its debt, officially snuffing out $7 billion of it by cutting pensions and payments to creditors. In Illinois, the nation’s lowest-rated state, with unfunded pension obligations of $111 billion, Rauner had a blunt message last week in an unprecedented address to Chicago’s City Council: The city will get no state bailout.

It’s simply too early to tell if Gov. Rauner’s threat is real. We’ll probably know in a few weeks. There’s a whole lot of horse-trading ahead.

* Downward…

DENIAL: After years of denial, Detroit officials finally, if grudgingly, agreed to major surgery. At least for now, Chicago’s Emanuel is sticking to his view that the Illinois Supreme Court’s rejection of a state pension reform law doesn’t apply to the city. “That reform is not affected by today’s ruling, as we believe our plan fully complies with the State constitution because it fundamentally preserves and protects worker pensions,” he said in a statement on May 8.

Again, we need to let it play out a bit before rushing to screaming judgements.

* I want to make it crystal clear that I’m not attempting to downplay Chicago’s very real, very serious, even dire problems. The city is in a world of bigtime hurt. But it’s a Tier One city, not some backwater dumping ground. People have been saying Chicago would become another Detroit since at least the days when Harold Washington first ran for mayor. Know what happened? He raised taxes after years of avoidance by Richard J. Daley and his machine successors and the city eventually took off like a rocket. Emanuel tried to follow the Daley path after succeeding yet another Daley. It’s a failed strategy, and it has truly endangered the city’s fiscal and economic health. Taxes will have to rise so much that some people will leave. But it’s gonna take a whole lot more than that to make Chicago into Detroit.

* Meanwhile…

Even before the triple-whammy to Chicago’s finances, Gov. Bruce Rauner was using the b-word, as in bankruptcy, particularly for CPS. That’s a status from which Detroit recently emerged.

Emanuel said Wednesday it would be “irresponsible and reckless to do that” as a first option. But, for the first time, he did not entirely rule out the possibility of bankruptcy. That would free the city and CPS to do things it would not otherwise be permitted to do while unions would lose their leverage.

“It exists. It can happen. [But] rushing there means you haven’t gone to your partners in labor and said, `Do you want to be part of the solution?’ ” Emanuel said.

Pressed on whether a post-election property tax increase was inevitable to solve the combined, $30 billion pension crisis at the city and the public schools, Emanuel insisted once again that raising property taxes was the “last option, not the first option.”

He maintained that the jackpot of revenue from a city-owned Chicago casino would be enough to save police and fire pension funds and that an end to the “double-taxation” of city residents for teacher pensions in Chicago and across the state would go a long way toward solving the $9.5 billion pension liability at CPS.

If the General Assembly and the governor can’t help sort this mess out, then it’s time to start worrying. Otherwise, we need some clear, calm heads around here for a change.

…Adding… It’s gonna play out over time…

A lawsuit by unions and retirees challenging Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s changes to city pension funds ultimately will be decided by the Illinois Supreme Court when all is said and done, a Cook County judge said Wednesday.

To that end, Associate Judge Rita Novak set a July 9 hearing in the lawsuit centering on a state law the mayor pushed through to cut costs in an attempt to shore up the city laborers and municipal workers pension funds.

* Related…

* A Tale of Two Cities