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As if we don’t have enough problems right now…

Thursday, Jan 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

According to a report released by the U.S. Census Bureau this year, the percentage of the population age 65 and older increased from 4.1 percent in 1900 to 14 percent in 2013. The Census Bureau projects that by 2030, nearly one in five residents will be 65 or older.

The demographic trends in Illinois are similar. Census estimates for 2013 peg Illinois’ over-65 population at almost 14 percent.

By 2030, that number is expected to go up to 18 percent, meaning that an estimated 2.4 million people in the state will be 65 or older.

And that means higher costs for services like Medicaid and even prisons…

Thirteen percent of inmates in the Illinois Department of Corrections are 50 years old or older, according to statistics compiled by the Chicago Reader. If current trends bear out, the number of inmates 50 or older will double within six years. Incarceration costs for older inmates can be twice as expensive as those for younger ones.

…Adding… From IDOC…

Based on the average cost of approximately $22,000 per year inmate in IDOC, incarceration of its 7,729 inmates over age 50 costs approximately $170 million per year. That is roughly 13.4% of the Department’s annual budget–between 1/7 and 1/8 of the budget, which is much, much less than the “one third” stated in the Illinois Issues/WUIS piece.

Don’t forget the tax revenues lost as well…

If all of that doesn’t seem like a big enough challenge to Illinois, the state will also see its revenues shrink as more of its population leaves the workforce. Illinois relies heavily on income taxes but does not tax retirement income. Senior citizens also get a break on their property taxes, which fund local services and schools.

So, while seniors demand more from the state, they will be paying fewer of the tax dollars needed to keep the whole operation afloat. The Census Bureau estimates that by 2030, when all the Boomers will be over the age of 65, there will be fewer than three working age people to each person of retirement age in the country.

“On the revenue side, I think the issue doesn’t get enough attention,” says Kurt Thurmaier, chair of the Department of Public Administration at Northern Illinois University. “You have a smaller and smaller group of younger people who are earning income, and the equation just doesn’t balance.”

Oy.

Go read the whole thing.

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Rauner: Judicial system “broken”

Thursday, Jan 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the twitters…

Rauner says he voted no on all judges on the ballot bc "the system's broken." Says trial lawyers giving $ to judge campaigns is a problem

— Tony Arnold (@tonyjarnold) January 22, 2015

* And while I’m not sure we can draw a direct line between PM and Justice Karmeier, this can help show how money from trial lawyers isn’t the only problem…

As the U.S. Supreme Court hears another case testing the boundary lines for campaign contributions in judicial elections, new information has surfaced about the role money played in a hotly contested race last year for Illinois’ highest court.

The parent company of Philip Morris USA contributed a total of $500,000 on Oct. 6 and 8 to a Republican Party group, a few weeks after the Illinois Supreme Court agreed to hear the tobacco company’s appeal of a $10.1 billion verdict. About two weeks later, the Republican State Leadership Committee put $950,000 into independent campaign ads supporting the retention of Lloyd Karmeier, a Republican Illinois Supreme Court justice.

Previously, the only known contributions from the parent company, Altria Group, to the RSLC were made in 2013, totaling about $225,000.

Brian Mays, a spokesman for Richmond, Va.-based Altria, denied any impropriety.

“Neither Altria nor any of its companies contributed to Lloyd Karmeier’s 2004 election nor in 2014,” he said. “We did contribute $500,000 to the Republican State Leadership Committee. What’s important about that contribution is that we informed the RSLC both orally and in writing that our contributions could not be used in judicial elections.”

The other side spent $2 million against Karmeier, almost all from trial lawyers, many of whom are involved with big money cases pending before the court.

…Adding… From comments…

If Rauner agrees with you, then spending money is your first amendment right and people who try to regulate you are unpatriotic.

If Rauner disagrees with you, the system is broken because you might have influence.

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Meeks wants $729 million education spending increase

Thursday, Jan 22, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tribune…

The Rev. James Meeks took over as chairman of the State Board of Education on Wednesday and immediately backed the idea of a 10.7 percent increase in school spending despite the state’s serious financial woes. […]

Much of the proposed $729 million increase would be poured into general state aid to ensure at least $6,119 is spent on each pupil in Illinois. The current year’s budget provided only 89 percent of the money needed to fund per-pupil spending at the same level. […]

Sen. Kim Lightford, a Maywood Democrat and longtime education advocate, said lawmakers want to hear what Rauner intends to do. “Perhaps he’s got an idea that we’re not made aware of yet that will generate revenue,” she said.

A Rauner spokesman neither endorsed nor rejected the Meeks-led education board’s spending recommendations.

Keep in mind that candidate Rauner repeatedly claimed that Pat Quinn had cut state education spending, when spending had actually risen a bit.

Chairman Meeks has set the bar extremely high here during an extraordinary fiscal mess. Somehow, Rauner has to deal with a $9 billion deficit next fiscal year and still come up with more money for K-12.

Governing ain’t easy, particularly in Illinois right now.

* Meanwhile, Sen. Andy Manar has tweaked his school funding reform bill…

Manar’s revamped proposal would still require schools to demonstrate need before receiving almost any state money by showing how much local revenue they have to spend on students. Wealthier districts that rely largely on property tax revenues to fund their schools would receive less state aid, while property-poor districts would receive more.

Regional cost differences would be determined by separating areas into different labor markets and looking at the average salaries of college graduates within those markets.

In addition to accounting for regional cost differences, Manar also plans to see that districts with higher than average numbers of special education students receive more funding, as well as to require a more thorough reporting of how districts spend state money on bilingual programs.

Adding in the regional cost factor “makes a more realistic calculation of the cost of educating students across the state is,” according to Ben Boer, deputy director for education reform group Advance Illinois.

*** UPDATE *** Sen. Manar didn’t share the complete bill draft with the AP. He did send them some bullet points and here they are…

Subject: SB 1

Working from SB 16 as the Senate passed it, here are the changes we are likely to include:

Amendments to Address ELL Accountability: Ensuring accountability consistent with current law for funds provided on account of ELL students.

Special Education: Allowing districts to demonstrate a special education population higher than the statewide average, and allowing that percentage to be used for the formula (subject to a cap at 5% points above the statewide average)

Low-income: Continuing to use the DHS count through the 16-17 school year, and then moving to a count based on 185% of the federal poverty level once better data is available. The changes also propose a slight downward adjustment for the low-income concentration weighting factor (moving from .90 to .80).

Regionalization: Adding a regionalization factor based on the Comparable Wage Index developed for the National Center for Education Statistics. This index measures systemic, regional variations in the salaries of college graduates. This system is currently being used in Maryland, Massachusetts, and New York.

Adequacy Grant: Adding a new hold harmless “adequacy grant” that targets funding to relatively low-spend, high tax districts. “Low spend” is determined based on the district’s operating expense per pupil in comparison to an “adequacy target” based on the EFAB recommended funding level and the district’s weights based on its student characteristics.

Adequacy Study: Moving up the timeline for the adequacy study so the procurement and contracting for it will occur as soon as the bill is enacted and funding is appropriated for the study.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* And in other budget-related news…

Gov. Bruce Rauner has given the Illinois Tollway the greenlight to proceed with more than $1 billion worth of rebuilding and widening projects this year, officials said Wednesday.

The projects appeared to be on hold after Rauner issued an executive order his first day in office barring state agencies from awarding major contracts without approval from his administration.

The Tollway doesn’t use GRF money, so the spending wouldn’t have impacted the budget.

* Related…

* Kennedy revived University of Illinois—but at what cost?

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