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All we might know is, it’s gonna be close
Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * Be careful with this analysis. From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog…
They’ve got Quinn winning by just 1.3 percentage points. * Quinn won four years ago 46.79 percent to 45.94 percent - a margin of just 0.85 percent. Gov. Quinn will probably need to increase his 2010 percentage to win this year because there were three other candidates on the ballot last time who took a combined 7.27 percent of the vote. Unless the Libertarian can reach that number, Quinn has to better his numbers in the face of strong GOP headwinds and a gazillionaire opponent. Either way, we’re talking little bitty numbers here. Tiny fractions of percentage points here and there can win this thing or lose it. According to 2010 exit polling, Democrats made up 44 percent of the electorate, Republicans were 32 percent and indies were 24 percent. Needless to say, Quinn didn’t get many independent votes. He had to scramble like mad. * There was a big spike over the weekend in Chicago, where early voters, absentee returns and grace period voting totaled 33,625. Lines were long everywhere. I figure another 6,000 more absentees will eventually be mailed in, based on past performance, but that could increase as well. So far, 39,638 more Chicagoans have voted before election day than in 2010. But also keep in mind that some very GOP-leaning townships in suburban Cook are reporting huge early vote/absentee numbers, as are the collar counties. Downstate remains a question. Anecdotal info abounds. The unions in Madison and Rock Island counties did an extraordinary job with the early vote, for instance. Again, a million different factors are at play here. FiveThirtyEight predicted Bill Brady would win last time with 51..5 percent of the vote to 44 for Quinn. His model had 86.7 percent confidence in 2010, but 66 percent today. * Also, Sun-Times…
Yes, the Democratic program is much bigger than the GOP program, but that’s because the GOP program is brand new. It’s something they didn’t have in 2010. …Adding… These are not Democratic bastions, to say the least…
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Unclear on the concepts
Monday, Nov 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller * This Chicago Sun-Times editorial made me chuckle today…
This is the same newspaper which endorsed Bruce Rauner, who is flatly against a progressive tax, including a millionaire’s surcharge. * Meanwhile, from a Tribune editorial…
* Look, cutting $2 billion worth of programs in the second half of a budget year is like cutting $4 billion for the full year. That’s painful, no matter how you look at it. And the longer you wait to do it (the budget address isn’t until late February) the harder it becomes. Sure, you can do some things, like no new capital projects (but you still gotta pay off the bonds from the rest of the projects), you can move money around with interfund transfers, slice here and dice there, put off paying bills, etc. and limp through the rest of the fiscal year. You could ask AFSCME to reopen the contract, but good luck with that, so there will be no real savings until the following fiscal year or unless the GA goes along with any schemes to bust the union. And the following fiscal year is where the real pain comes - particularly if too many cans are kicked down the budgetary highway - and that’s why Rauner is now saying he’ll gradually step down the tax hike instead of eliminating it immediately. * And, yes, spending has gone up in the past four years mainly because the state is finally making its pension payments and the GA and the governor refused to cut education funding. And despite some big cuts to Medicaid, growth is still high. Also, implementing a brand new service tax right away just can’t happen. Most of these businesses have never, ever paid sales taxes. Getting that program up and running just can’t be done overnight. You can hike income taxes and implement it right away (even do it retroactively) because the system is already in place. But it’ll take time for barbers, laundromats, lawyers and everyone else to get up to speed on a totally new tax (not to mention the time it’ll take to pass a tax like that). And a service tax will only replace about a quarter or so of that $8 billion in revenues lost when the income tax hike goes away. * The Tribune is also conveniently forgetting that Rauner wants to massively increase education and higher education funding and has promised spending increases for IDNR, DCFS, IDOC and lots of other stuff, including a huge new capital plan. That will necessitate even more cuts elsewhere or more revenues. Getting back to the Sun-Times editorial for a moment…
That’s diametrically opposed to an editorial the Sun-Times published just last year...
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