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Today’s numbers

Monday, Jul 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Click for a larger image…

* From the story…

The party led by a wealthy financier is starting the summer campaign season at a nearly 2-to-1 fundraising disadvantage.

Fueled by unlimited contributions in the governor’s race, Democrats and Republicans combined have about twice as much money as they had four years ago, according to a Crain’s analysis of financial reports by almost four dozen key political organizations and candidates. But as the party in power, Democrats now have about $26.9 million, or almost double Republicans’ cash.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner has roughly $8.5 million on hand, thanks to a recent $2.5 million donation from hedge-fund executive Ken Griffin, but still trails Gov. Pat Quinn, with almost $10 million. Fundraising caps on that race were removed because of the nearly $6.6 million Mr. Rauner has given to his own campaign, much of which was spent during the primary.

Factor out that race, and Democratic candidates and political organizations statewide have $2.72 on hand for every $1 held by Republicans, Crain’s finds.

Yeah, but Rauner recently gave the state GOP $500,000 and more is surely on the way.

…Adding… As YDD notes in comments, it’s highly doubtful that Lisa Madigan will be spending much of her own cash horde. Some of that Dem “advantage” is not really an advantage.

  32 Comments      


What now?

Monday, Jul 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* After the Illinois Supreme Court took a retiree health insurance case and all but guaranteed that pension reform is dead, Greg Hinz and I are on the same page about what happens next…

Some still see hope in a negotiated approach in which labor groups, for instance, agree to pay more for their pensions in exchange for pay hikes. That’s the “consideration” approach pushed by Mr. Cullerton.

But Mr. Cullerton’s pension bill counted on the state continuing “voluntary” health benefits as part of the consideration. That’s now gone, because the court essentially ruled that health benefits are part of the same bucket as pension themselves.

Yep.

* And yep…

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if House Speaker Michael Madigan revives his campaign to force local units of government, particularly school districts, to pick up pension costs that the state now pays.

Others point to a legally unexplored possibility: letting one or more of the pension funds go bankrupt to see what the courts order.

TRS and SURS are big, big problems for the state. Almost no other state picks up the tab for local teacher pensions. Shifting that cost would save a ton of state dollars.

Also, the state cannot declare bankruptcy. Illinois forbids municipalities from declaring bankruptcy. So this pension fund bankruptcy idea may be the only option for Chicago, Cook County and local first responder funds. Try it with a smaller pension fund first and work your way up, perhaps.

…Adding… Here’s my syndicated newspaper column on the Supreme Court’s ruling…

In a sweeping 6-1 decision, the Illinois Supreme Court last week struck down an attempt to force government retirees to pay more for their subsidized state health insurance. And while nothing is ever certain when it comes to the judiciary, the Court made it pretty darned clear that Illinois’ new pension reform law is going to have real trouble passing constitutional review.

The Court, led by Justice Charles Freeman, did not specifically rule on the pension reform law, but declared “it is clear” that all pension benefits, including health insurance, cannot be, as the Illinois Constitution mandates, “diminished or impaired,” which the ruling called the “plain and ordinary” meaning of the state’s Constitution.

“We may not rewrite the pension protection clause to include restrictions and limitations that the drafters did not express and the citizens of Illinois did not approve,” the Court ruled.

If that isn’t a direct enough message to lawmakers, the governor and everybody else, I don’t know what is. Pension benefits “shall not be diminished or impaired,” is what the Constitution says, and the Court used the “plain meaning” angle to say they can’t be cut.

For good measure the Court added that the state Constitution’s language on pension benefit protections, “was aimed at protecting the right to receive the promised retirement benefits, not the adequacy of the funding to pay for them.”

That last line is perhaps the most important part of the ruling, because it more than just suggests the state’s new pension reform laws - which rely on a “police powers” argument because the state allegedly can’t afford to make the promised pension benefit payments - could very well be going right out the window.

The justices also sent a powerful message when they wrote that a “fundamental principle” they relied on in this ruling was that if there are any questions about legislative intent and the clarity of the language of a pension law, “it must be liberally construed in favor of the rights of the pensioner.”

Therefore, the Court ruled, it is “obliged” to resolve any doubts “in favor of the members of the State’s public retirement systems.”

Boom.

Looks like it’s back to the ol’ drawing board, fellas.

Attorney General Lisa Madigan’s office pointed out that the pension reform case and the health insurance case have significant differences. The main difference is the emergency “police powers” argument. But as the Supremes essentially ruled last week, the state’s financial problems are not the Constitution’s concern.

The state pension reform legislation passed last year was projected to save taxpayers about $200 billion over 30 years. The health insurance reforms, which were specifically struck down last week, were projected to save up to around $80 million a year.

If the pension reform law is the next to be struck down, there are few easy ways out of this fiscal nightmare.

Amending the state Constitution to remove that pension protection language would take more than two years because we’d have to wait until the 2016 election to hold the plebiscite.

And even then, deleting the Constitution’s pension protection clause would almost surely only apply to new hires. In other words, all of the billions built up in the state’s massive unfunded pension liability can’t be touched.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner’s pension reform plan involves freezing annual pension benefit cost of living increases going forward and taking existing employees out of the pension fund altogether going forward. But last week’s ruling was so sweeping and so all-encompassing that it’s pretty tough to see how that would pass constitutional muster, either.

Senate President John Cullerton warned this very thing would happen years ago. He eventually negotiated a pension reform deal with the unions. But that deal was quickly rejected by House Speaker Michael Madigan, conservative newspaper editorial boards and much of the business community.

Cullerton then attempted to graft his pension reform proposal onto the business-backed plan. If the business-backed plan was rejected by the Illinois Supreme Court, Cullerton’s compromise would then automatically become law.

But that idea, too, was rejected out of hand.

So instead of having a union-approved plan in place, we could very well be stuck with no plan at all. Why would the unions go back to the bargaining table if they have the Supreme Court on their side?

The bottom line is it’s going to take some radical, out of the box thinking to resolve this issue or the state will assuredly face even higher taxes and lots more budget cuts to pay this tab.

  235 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Rate the new Oberweis radio ad

Monday, Jul 7, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* US Senate candidate Jim Oberweis is airing his second radio ad targeting women. This time, it’s a young, single mom. Rate it…

*** UPDATE *** AP…

Republican state Sen. Jim Oberweis wants U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin to agree to seven debates prior to the November election. […]

In a statement Tuesday, Oberweis says voters should get to compare the candidates’ records on job creation and other topics. He calls Durbin’s policies “a disaster for the poor and middle class.”

Ron Holmes is a spokesman for Durbin. He says Durbin has debated every challenger he’s faced and “looks forward to working out the terms” of this fall’s schedule. […]

He says at least three should be outside the Chicago area. Oberweis also wants one debate to be co-hosted by a liberal organization and another by a conservative organization.

  30 Comments      


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