* Greg Hinz…

If Mr. Dillard really has momentum, the Rauner campaign has the resources to whack him back. The campaign already has up spots criticizing his legislative votes on tax and spending issues. But much of the chatter in political circles last week was about whether the Rauner campaign will question Mr. Dillard’s union ties in paid TV ads, and whether it will remind voters that the senator once cut a television commercial for then-presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Team Rauner isn’t saying what it will do. I’d take that as indication it’s aware that a last-minute, heavily negative campaign would hurt not only Mr. Dillard but potentially backfire on Mr. Rauner, with the Dillard campaign loudly reminding voters that Mr. Rauner is the one who has donated to Mr. Emanuel and other Democrats such as former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. […]

Four years ago, Mr. Brady was the GOP nominee against incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, and Mr. Brady still harbors some goodwill among the GOP faithful, particularly downstate.

Mr. Brady also has another path to victory: light turnout. That would mean that traditional Republicans are dominating the party, rather than outraged “time for change” newcomers to whom Mr. Rauner has pitched his campaign.

* Kurt Erickson…

Walking into the Capitol Wednesday with a lawmaker-turned-lobbyist, we chatted about whether Dillard, with the help of the unions, could somehow turn the numbers around in his favor.

“That’s a very big hill to climb in such a short amount of time,” rhymed the former suburban Republican senator.

Later in the day I talked with a veteran member of the Senate — a Democrat — who cautioned that it was still too early to call the race. After all, he said, no one saw Brady — except perhaps Brady — emerging out of the cornstalks to win the 2010 GOP primary.

* Doug Finke…

The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees added its endorsement to those Dillard previously won from the Illinois Education Association and the Illinois Federation of Teachers. With the endorsements should come money, which anyone running against multi-millionaire Bruce Rauner is going to need.

The question is how much the endorsements will do for Dillard when the votes are cast.

Everyone knows that turnout in primary elections is sparse. Those most likely to vote are the committed party faithful. Among Republicans, that often means more conservative members of the party, which explains why you often see GOP candidates tacking to the right in the run-up to a primary.

You have to figure that the more conservative wing of the Republican Party will be more receptive to Rauner’s position that public employee unions, or at least their leaders, have been bad for the state and are the cause of many of the state’s problems. So if those are the people more likely to vote in a primary election, it may not do Dillard all that much good to pick up endorsements from public employee unions.

Then again, I talked to somebody over the weekend who saw a tracker that had Dillard in fourth place. Yes, that’s very weird. I don’t know whether to believe those results or not. Strange days.

…Adding… Looks like a normal off-year Democratic turnout and stronger GOP turnout in Chicago. From the Chicago Elections Commission…

2010 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM…………REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)…….9,533………786
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..11,060……1,023
Total for Two Weeks…………20,593……1,809

2012 Early Voting (Presidential Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 1 (22-16 days out)……9,993…….1,267
Week 2 (15-09 days out)…..10,750……1,382
Total ………………………………20,743……2,649

2014 Early Voting (Gubernatorial Primary)
……………………………………….DEM……….REP
Week 0 (22-16 days out)……NO EARLY VOTING
Week 1 (15-09 days out)…..9,268…….1,753

* The Question: Odds that Brady, Dillard or even Rutherford could surge enough to win the primary?