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*** UPDATED x1 - Board refutes GOP claim *** Fun with numbers

Monday, Nov 5, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners…

Chicago led the state again in Saturday’s daily total and overall total for Early Voting. On Saturday, Chicago voters cast 30,600 ballots on the final day of Early Voting, moving the total to more than 243,000 Early Voting for the 13 days of the program.
This set a new record for percentage of registered voters using Early Voting (18% this year compared to 17% in 2008). […]

This set a new record for daily average of ballots in Early Voting (18,700 per day this year compared to 14,500 per day in 2008).

Although we didn’t surpass the 2008 total of 260,000, we had nearly the same total in spite of having five fewer days of Early Voting this year compared to 2008.

* But the Illinois Republican Party makes the case that the city is fudging the early voting numbers…

According to the numbers, at this point in 2008, there were 260,376 early voters and 304,290 absentee voters. Now, the party maintains, there are 195,064 early voters and 46,232 absentee voters. That’s a loss of 57 percent of voters, since the last election. […]

“We believe the Chicago Board of Elections is misrepresenting their numbers in making comparisons to 2008,” a spokesman for the Illinois Republican party explains. “According to the numbers we see in the State Board of Elections database, there is a significant fall off in reported absentee voting in city of Chicago. The Chicago Board of Elections is reporting 240k in early voting and claiming it’s on track to surpass 2008 - but they’re actually combining 2012 Early Voting and absentee voting, and then comparing that sum to 2008’s early voting numbers (excluding absentee). There is a significant 57% drop in voter participation in the City of Chicago from 2008 - in the President’s hometown. I’d also point out that despite the Chicago Board’s point that early voting is four days shorter this year than in 2008, Illinois recently instituted “vote-by-mail” without an excuse needed, i.e. early voting by mail. This did not exist in 2008 and should have vastly expanded the numbers.”

I asked the board for a response hours ago and haven’t heard back. I’ll let you know if I do.

*** UPDATE *** I figured a post might smoke out the city board. Here’s the response…

There were never 300,000 absentee ballots cast in Chicago. In fact, there were never, ever that many absentee ballots cast in the entire state of Illinois! The election when we get that many absentee ballots is the one where we have to move our mail room to the warehouse.

The attached shows where we are - 2008 vs 2012 - as of Saturday night.

We’re up in absentee (with 16 more days for those to arrive), and we doubled Grace Period registration, and we came close to matching our Early Voting numbers from 2008, in spite of having five fewer days and 130,000 fewer registered voters.

We’re slightly under 2008 in raw numbers, slightly higher if measured as a percentage of registered voters. Either way, turnout has been and will be strong.

The attached document is here.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* In other numbers news, the Senate Democrats say the person reporting a huge contribution received by Sen. Mike Jacobs mistakenly entered the check number into the State Board of Election’s program instead of the amount, which was actually $3,000. I’m assuming the $11 million contribution from Bobby Rush’s chief of staff was also an error…

* Meanwhile, Illinois Review notes that 36 of 64 House Democratic races are unopposed in 2012, and 29 of 54 House Republicans face no opponents Tuesday.

Not mentioned, though, is that a whole lot of those legislators faced opposition in the March primary.

Look, some of this state is solidly Democratic. Some of it is solidly Republican. There is no way - barring a return to 3-member districts - that people challenging incumbents in those areas have a snowball’s chance in heck of winning.

Yes, there is plenty of gerrymandering. No doubt. A large handful of Democrats (and Republicans) are safe because of that simple fact. But the fight is and has always been about the middle-ground. And there are lots of high-intensity legislative races this year.

* Also, a friend looked at a 1999 House roll call and made note of those who still remain. Click the pick for a larger view…

  19 Comments      


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