This report contains the results of a Civiqs survey of 659 likely voters in Illinois from October 22-25, 2022.
The survey was conducted online, among selected members of the Civiqs research panel. Sampled individuals were emailed by Civiqs and responded using a personalized link to the survey at civiqs.com. The survey results are weighted by age, race, gender, education, and party identification to be representative of the population of likely voters in Illinois. The general design effect due to weighting is 1.26. The survey has a margin of error of ± 4.3% at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the design effect.
In the race for the U.S. Senate in Illinois, incumbent Democrat Tammy Duckworth leads Republican Kathy Salvi by a substantial margin, 56% to 40%. Duckworth has a positive favorability rating, 51% favorable to 43% unfavorable. Salvi is both less popular and less well known among likely Illinois voters, with a 28% favorable rating, 36% unfavorable rating, and 36% who are unsure about her.
Democrat JB Pritzker holds a 17 percentage point lead over Republican Darren Bailey in the election for Governor of Illinois, 56% to 39%. Pritzker is viewed favorably by 50% of Illinois likely voters, and unfavorably by 45%. Likely voters have a negative opinion of Bailey, who gets a 29% favorable rating and a 56% unfavorable rating, with 16% unsure.
Likely voters in Illinois give President Joe Biden a 46% favorable rating, with 49% viewing him unfavorably.
When Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s campaign bus came to town recently, the local conservative talk radio station covered the event, dutifully informing its audience on social media that “counter protesters were in attendance.”
The “counter protesters” were the radio station’s employees. They mugged for photos in front of the governor’s bus, held up signs that said, “Fire Pritzker” — then turned around and covered the Democrat’s event.
Since President Biden’s election, the talk radio station Cities 92.9 has upended the traditional media ecosystem in this part of Central Illinois with an unusual mix of hyperlocal news coverage — crime, weather and the like — and election misinformation. Replying on Facebook to a social media post about the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol, the station turned its focus to the 2020 election results: “What about the insurrection on Nov. 3?”
Cities 92.9 organized a sold-out bus trip to the “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, supported a man accused of making a Nazi salute at a school board meeting and co-hosted a fall “freedom” festival during which a former Marine and Jan. 6 attendee called for revolution, saying, “Violence is always the answer.” […]
[Catrina Petersen, the station’s program manager] posted a photo of herself on her personal Facebook page last year posing before a banner that said, “Q Sent Me,” writing, “Yeah I’m ‘Q’ what of it.” Asked whether she was an adherent to the extremist ideology embraced by many on the far right, she responded, “As much as you are BlueAnon, I suppose.”
Gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey hired David Paul Blumenshine, who hosts a talk show on Cities on weekends, as his election integrity program director. Back to the WaPo story…
Blumenshine, too, soon had a different story [about January 6], spinning tales of mysterious tour buses arriving and claiming he saw a weak security perimeter at the Capitol — assertions he has repeated to this day. In the interview, he dismissed the police officers who were assaulted by rioters during the attack — more than 140, some who suffered traumatic injuries such as brain damage and crushed spinal disks — as “political theater.”
* WMBD reported on the group’s return from the rally on Jan 7, 2021…
Trump supporters from the Twin Cities returned home Thursday afternoon after participating in the “Stop the Steal” Rally.
The group of 49 said the thousands of supporters were “reminiscent of Dr. Martin Luther King” and said they didn’t see any violence or rioting first hand. Group organizer David Paul Blumenshine said the mood was celebratory and the president promoted peace during his speech.
“There were other speakers that day, but the president was just magnificent, he also continued to preach peace and a peaceful protest,” Blumenshine said. “Upon delivering his message, along Constitution Ave and Pennsylvania Ave, people marched, reminiscent of Dr. Martin Luther King.”
Blumenshine said the group from Normal did not participate in the “small group” that breached the Capitol Building and condemned the group that turned the event into a deadly tragedy. He said all forms of political violence should be prosecuted.
* Legacy media giving up on endorsements could cede public opinion to these kinds of “alt” outlets. The AP…
Some readers have difficulty distinguishing between news and opinion, or flat-out don’t believe that a paper’s editorial stance doesn’t affect its news coverage, said Hunter, whose Iowa newspaper is owned by Gannett.
Gannett didn’t ban political endorsements, but strongly advised its more than 220 newspapers to cut back on national opinion and focus on local issues. The Des Moines Register’s opinion pages, for example, now run twice a week. The Register is being selective in its choices this fall, weighing in on the Iowa governor’s race and a referendum on guns. But the state’s top newspaper won’t endorse in federal races, including U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley’s bid for an eighth term. […]
Many politicians view the dwindling state of endorsements with a collective shrug. News organizations were once seen as objective, but Republican consultant Alex Conant said many voters his candidates are trying to reach consider newspapers as partisan as politicians. […]
Advertisements — often filled with disinformation — become the primary source of information, she said. By contrast, American Presidency Project co-director John Woolley said, newspaper endorsements “are a good thing in that they model how to think, and clarify to people what the big issues are.”
…Adding…[From Rich] Speaking of news vacuums, here’s the Tribune…
No part of the Lincolnwood Public Library’s collection will be moved or restricted after a heated group of public commenters forced an abrupt end to an Oct. 24 meeting of the library’s board of trustees.
Library Director Josephine Tucci said more than 60 members of the public attended Monday night’s meeting, where videos show conflict erupted in the audience over the library’s collection and programming.
Tucci said some of the commenters were misinformed about a program they thought the library had held but which had not taken place — “something to do with a drag queen storytime where the drag queen conducted the program, and that never happened,” she said.
Tucci said other commenters were objecting to a book called The Bare Naked Book that the library does not have in its collection. […]
Eventually, the meeting was dismissed by the board and police came onto the scene at the request of library officials. Officers dispersed the attendees from the room immediately upon adjournment, according to Lincolnwood Police Chief Jay Parrott.
* That Cardboard Box in Your Home Is Fueling Election Denial: Flush with profits from their shipping supply company, the Uihleins have emerged as the No. 1 federal campaign donors for Republicans ahead of the November elections, and the No. 2 donors overall behind liberal financier George Soros. The couple has spent at least $121 million on state and federal politics in the last two years alone, fighting taxes, unions, abortion rights and marijuana legalization.
* How ‘pink slime’ journalism exploits our faith in local news: As local outlets have disappeared, many have been replaced by algorithmically managed pink-slime outlets that use the good will earned by news institutions of yore to help push political agendas from outside those communities. […] Poorly paid freelancers replaced staff reporters who had made living wages at newspapers like the Chicago Tribune. Part of my job was to write local news stories for the Houston Chronicle — even though I lived in Chicago — and select fake American-sounding bylines for stories written in virtual sweatshops in the Philippines. A Filipino writer named Junbe, for instance, might be renamed Jimmy Finkel, thanks to a built-in drop-down menu, and Gisele Bautista could instantly become Jenni Cox. These “reporters” earned pennies per story, and much of the content was plagiarized. “It would pay off to have you both write and edit these stories only if you could write the stories in about 90 seconds,” my remote supervisor told me.
* Why false claims about Brazil’s election are spreading in far-right U.S. circles: It’s the latest example of how debunked election fraud narratives are going international. In many cases, the false claims about Brazil are being pushed in English to American audiences by right-wing influencers and conservative media sites who falsely assert that Donald Trump won the 2020 U.S. presidential election and appear to be planting the idea that similar fraud will occur in the upcoming midterms.
* ‘They’re not newspapers’: The not-so-mysterious publications in your mailbox: Before reading the articles published in the paper, Yamshon thought it looked like a normal local news operation, with typical advertisements and a back page featuring the names and photos of former high school football players from the area now playing in college. But then, she started to read. A box in the top left corner of the front page read, “Special Sex Education Edition: What are they teaching your child in 2022?” Below that was a reference to an article on page 2 about a Naperville elementary school teacher, with the phrase “Teaching boys to be girls.”
With two weeks to go until the November election, the Democratic Party of Illinois (DPI) this week launched a new ad campaign focused on reproductive choice. The campaign includes ads in both Spanish and English, and will reach Latino, Black, and downstate communities in over 230 zip codes across the state.
“Abortion is on the ballot this November. While Republicans are committed to turning back the clock on reproductive rights, we’re working hard to make sure voters know that the Democratic Party is the party of reproductive freedom,” said DPI Chair Lisa Hernandez. “We’re sharing our message with underrepresented communities in over 230 zip codes to make sure they know that with Democrats in office, Illinois will remain a safe haven for women everywhere.”
The ad campaign consists of two 15-second digital videos entitled “Saw This Coming” and “Ready” (“Listo”).
The new ads follow the launch of DPI’s first ever Spanish-language ads last month. With this critical initiative, DPI is continuing its work to reach and mobilize traditionally underrepresented voters in the home stretch leading up to the November election.
…Adding… I do not think this is on TV…
As your next Attorney General, I will fight like hell to end the NO BOND SAFE T Act. pic.twitter.com/ubASLytAUO
Woman 1: For 50 years, Illinois women have had freedom over their own bodies.
Woman 2: Those rights are under attack.
Woman 3: With the Supreme Court overturning Roe vs. Wade,
Woman 4: Extremists are trying to take us backward, ban abortions, criminalize women.
Woman 1: We need Kwame Raoul now more than ever.
Woman 3: He’s fighting for our freedoms in the court and on the frontlines.
Woman 2: Standing up to the extremists, fighting back.
Kwame Raoul: This extremist attack on women’s freedoms — not in Illinois, not while I’m Attorney General. I’m Kwame Raoul. This is the work of my life, and there’s so much more to do.
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Global Strategy Group
DATE: October 25, 2022
RE: NEW POLL: Making Significant Gains Since Summer, Rochford Even Better Positioned to Win
Survey results from Global Strategy Group’s recent research show an electorate focused on electing a candidate who is highly qualified and will protect abortion rights in our state’s highest court – and that candidate is Democrat Elizabeth Rochford. With voters getting to know her in the last few months, Rochford now enjoys positive personal ratings and a 6-point lead against Republican Mark Curran, of whom voters now have mixed opinions. Still, there is room to consolidate key voting blocs further in the next two weeks. And with so many voters unfamiliar with the candidates, the race is still wide open. Should Rochford be able to stay in front of voters, push back on misleading attacks, and communicate her experience and support from pro-choice groups, she has a path to victory. Takeaways from a survey of 500 likely 2022 generical election voters are as follows.
KEY TAKEAWAYS:
• After learning more about her this fall, voters like and support Elizabeth Rochford. While there is still work to do to educate voters on the candidates for Illinois Supreme Court Justice, Rochford has significantly increased her name ID so that now 41% of voters can rate her (up from less than a third in August). Those voters who know her like her by a 7-point margin (24% favorable/17% unfavorable). Still, more than half of the electorate needs to learn about Rochford’s background and qualifications.
• While Mark Curran remains the better-known candidate, voters have mixed opinions. Over half of voters are familiar with Curran. But given that a plurality of the electorate is hearing something negative about him (33% positive/39% negative), his ratings have now weakened to a draw (27% favorable/27% unfavorable).
• As a result of communications on behalf of Rochford up to this point, she now leads Curran just under 50%. Voters now choose Rochford over Curran by a 6-point margin – Rochford 49%/Curran 43%. Between our first poll in August and now, Rochford has successfully consolidated key groups like Democrats, especially women Democrats; women over 55; college women; and voters in Lake County.
ABOUT THIS RESEARCH
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 500 likely 2022 general election voters in Illinois Supreme Court District 2 between October 18 and October 23, 2022. Interviews were conducted via live telephone as well as a text invitation to a web-based survey. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic and demographic divisions of the population of likely 202 2 general election voters are properly represented.
Justice Mary Jane Theis was selected for the office of Chief Justice of the Illinois Supreme Court at the Court’s November 2022 Term. She will serve a three-year term commencing today, October 26, 2022, succeeding Anne M. Burke, whose tenure as Chief Justice ended on Oct. 25, 2022.
Justice Theis will be the fourth woman to serve as Chief Justice following the late Justice Mary Ann McMorrow, Justice Rita B. Garman, and Justice Burke. She will be the 122nd Chief Justice in Illinois history.
“I would like to thank my colleagues for giving me this opportunity to serve the people of Illinois as Chief Justice. I also would like to congratulate Justice Burke for her successful term as Chief and her leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Justice Theis said. “I look forward to working with the bench, bar and community at large to further the Court’s mission of providing access to equal justice, ensuring judicial integrity and upholding the rule of law. Our goal continues to be increasing public trust and confidence in the courts.”
As Chief Justice, Justice Theis will serve as the chief administrative officer of the Supreme Court, which is constitutionally vested with general administrative and supervisory authority over the more than 900 judges in the statewide judicial system.
Among other duties, the Chief Justice selects the items to be placed on the Supreme Court’s agenda for the Court’s consideration during its constitutionally-mandated five terms each year; supervises all appointments to Supreme Court committees, serves as chairperson of the Executive Committee of the constitutionally-mandated Illinois Judicial Conference and presents the Court’s annual budget request to the General Assembly.
…Adding… ILGOP…
With Election Day drawing near, Democrat Elizabeth Rochford’s campaign for Illinois Supreme Court is showing signs of desperation. This morning, Rochford’s campaign released a polling memo in an attempt to signal to her Madigan Machine donors and backers that she’s in desperate need of additional millions.
Rochford’s call for help comes even after she’s raised $3.5 million for her campaign, and the so-called “All for Justice” group has raised nearly $6.8 million, spending much of it on Rochford. Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Shaun McCabe released the following statement in response:
“Elizabeth Rochford and her Madigan Machine allies are desperate, even after spending millions of dollars on her failing campaign. Rochford knows if voters learn about her Machine ties and record, she will lose her election and the Madigan Machine will lose a vote on the Supreme Court. Mark Curran is in a strong position to win because he’s an independent outsider with extensive law enforcement experience who will uphold the rule of law, not the rule of Madigan.”
