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Wednesday, Aug 14, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

Democrats readied to celebrate their first Governor’s Day at the Illinois State Fair in five years on Wednesday, rallying with hopes to build off victories by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and legislative candidates last fall that made Illinois a one-party state.

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to kick the day off as keynote speaker at the annual Democratic County Chairs’ Association brunch, celebrating a state that flipped two Republican congressional seats in the mid-term elections. Democrats now hold a 13-5 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation.

Though Pelosi is to appear before a friendly crowd of more than 2,000 at a hotel ballroom, the politically polarizing California Democrat will be in the heart of ruby-red rural Downstate Illinois, which voted decisively for President Donald Trump in 2016.

But Springfield is also the hometown of Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, a Democrat who could flip the central and southwestern Illinois congressional seat held by Republican Rodney Davis of Taylorville. Davis defeated Londrigan by 2,058 votes in 2018.

Londrigan, whose candidacy is strongly backed by House Democrats, was not listed on the speaking program for the brunch, perhaps because of fears an appearance with Pelosi could be used against her by Davis and Republicans in the 13th Congressional District.

You can watch the event live by clicking here.

* ILGOP…

Today the Illinois Democrats celebrate and talk about the “BIG” things they have accomplished - BIG spending, BIG tax hikes and BIG government. However, it’s likely we won’t hear them answering questions about their rampant corruption and unpopular policies.

“Illinois Democrats will try every which way to avoid answering questions Illinoisans deserve answers to. Their silence on the corruption ravaging their party further erodes what trust the public has left in state government. Will any Democrat address their colleagues corrupt activities, or will they choose to hide and not stand up for taxpayers?” -Joe Hackler, ILGOP Spokesman

Now that Governor’s Day is bringing all Democratic leaders together in one place at one time, the media and interested citizens can hopefully get some answers to those pressing questions. The following are a few questions that voters deserve to hear answered:

Should Senator Tom Cullerton step down after being indicted on 41 counts of embezzlement, conspiracy, and making false statements?
Do any Democrats agree with Senate President John Cullerton that Sen. Tom Cullerton is a valuable member of the caucus and deserved a new chairmanship?
Did Speaker Madigan know about the payments from his allies and friends going to Kevin Quinn?
Did Speaker Madigan know the person he hired to investigate incidents like Kevin Quinn’s harassment was the sister of two men sending to checks to Quinn after he was dismissed?
Do any Democrats agree with leading presidential candidates that all private healthcare insurance should be abolished?
Do any Democrats agree with leading presidential candidates that illegal border crossing should be decriminalized?
Do any Democrats agree with leading presidential candidates that illegal immigrants should be given free healthcare?

* Center Square…

Last week Senate President John Cullerton, D-Chicago, moved Sen. Tom Cullerton from leading the Senate Labor Committee to heading the Senate Veteran Affairs Committee, a move that allowed the Senator to keep a stipend for being a committee leader.

Pritzker said shifting Cullerton’s committee chairmanship made sense.

“As you know I think he stepped aside or was asked to step aside from the chairmanship of the Labor Committee, which is the area the allegations were made in, and I think that is an appropriate first step,” Pritzker said. […]

State Sen. Linda Holmes, D-Aurora, said if she had the ability, Cullerton wouldn’t even have that.

“I probably would have stripped the committee chairmanship,” Holmes said. “Left him on his committees, obviously left him voting until anything commenced from that point.”

* Politico…

Gov. J.B. Pritzker held court at the governor’s mansion. House Speaker Mike Madigan hosted dinner at Saputo’s. And Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot got the applause.

“She was well-received,” Madigan told Playbook about Lightfoot’s visit to his dinner gathering for friends and lawmakers. Maybe an understatement as the crowded backroom broke out in applause for the mayor.

That’s the way Tuesday evening went in Springfield. Cheers, celebratory toasts and lots of party-hopping as Democrats and Republicans converged on the state capitol for the annual Governor’s Day (today) and Republican Day (Thursday) events tied to the state fair.

Given Democrats control both chambers of the Legislature and the governor’s office, it’s no surprise Dems dominated the party scene, too.

The tradition is the governor’s party holds its receptions the evening before Governor’s Day at the Illinois State Fair. The other party holds its receptions the evening before its state fair day. So, the Republicans will be partying tonight.

…Adding… NRCC…

Hey there –

The Chicago Corruption machine will welcome the Washington Corruption machine at the Democratic County Chairs’ Association brunch today.

Notable socialist crooks include Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan, socialist loser* Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (whose donors are still under federal investigation), fake nurse Lauren Underwood, the politically inept Cheri “Beltway” Bustos and House “Speaker” Nancy Pelosi.

What a crew.

These corrupt socialists insiders will clink champagne flutes as they discuss their plans to wipe out private insurance, provide on-demand late term abortion and tax Illinoisans into oblivion to pay for a socialist takeover the economy.

Cheers!

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Dorothy Brown won’t seek reelection

Wednesday, Aug 14, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Politico…

DOROTHY BROWN BOWS OUT. The longtime clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County will not seek re-election, she told Playbook. “I’ve decided to look at the next chapter. It’s time to do something new, and go to an even higher level.”

Brown says that includes working as a community activist and applying her “financial, technology and legal skills in the for-profit arena.”

After weeks of speculation about whether she was running, Brown said that stepping down from public office at the end of 2020 dovetails with logging 20 years with the county. That’s when she’ll be able to draw a full pension.

Brown, who ran for mayor of Chicago earlier this year before getting knocked off in a petition challenge, said she wasn’t swayed by the crowd of candidates angling to unseat her, or her meager campaign war chest compared to those seeking to take her on. Brown also said the FBI probe into pay-to-play allegations in her office wouldn’t hurt her chances of winning, either (No charges have ever been filed).

“I felt that I would have definitely won re-election,” she said. “Nothing weighed me down. I have just as much confidence as I ever had.”

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Press release…

Progressive reformer and Democratic candidate for Cook County Clerk of the Circuit Court, Jacob Meister has issued the following statement in response to Dorthy Brown’s announcement that she will not be seeking re-election for Cook County Clerk of the Circuit Court:

“Four years ago I announced my candidacy to run against Dorothy Brown because the Clerk of the Circuit Court’s office is a patronage den and bureaucratic disaster of lost paperwork and dinosaur age technology. It is tragic that the second largest court system in the country still relies on carbon paper and hastily handwritten documentation on a daily basis. Lost files and handwritten paperwork result in an unacceptable rate of errors, which often translates to people remaining in jail when they should be released, wrongful evictions and foreclosures. The office needs to be transformed, both operationally and ethically and I offer a clear vision to achieve the needed reform.

“The Democratic Party needs to seize this opportunity to offer the voters a candidate that is the most qualified to reform the office and is absolutely free from ethical questions and pay-to-play politics. Unfortunately, instead of heeding the clear message sent by voters who elected reformers Fritz Kaegi and Lori Lightfoot, many of the leaders of the Cook County Democratic Party are headed towards slating yet another ethically bankrupt candidate to head the Clerk’s office.”

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*** LIVE COVERAGE ***

Wednesday, Aug 14, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

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*** UPDATED x1 *** Casino study shows Lightfoot was right about tax structure

Tuesday, Aug 13, 2019 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Breaking news…

Chicago casino feasibility study concludes that the tax structure set up by the Illinois General Assembly (where the operator only keeps 33% of the revenues) would be too onerous and make it virtually unprofitable. That said, Michael Reese site would make most $$$

— Paris Schutz (@paschutz) August 13, 2019

* From the study…

Not feasible due to the onerous tax and fee structure

The gaming expansion legislation that allows for a casino in the City of Chicago is very onerous from a tax and fee perspective. Our understanding is that on top of the existing tax structure on Adjusted Gross Receipts (“AGR”) paid by all Illinois casinos, the City of Chicago casino would also pay an additional 33 1/3% privilege tax on AGR. The developmental impact of high taxes and fees notwithstanding, we forecast that a casino in the City of Chicago has the potential to become the highest grossing casino in Illinois, significantly higher than the current market leading Rivers Casino in Des Plaines, which generated $441.8 million in AGR in calendar 2018. For example, the highest AGR potential for the five sites selected for the study by the City of Chicago is approximately $806 million (Former Michael Reese Hospital, 31st St. and Cottage Grove Ave.). Based on the prevailing AGR and admissions taxes alone (set aside for the moment other operational-phase taxes and fees), a casino in the City of Chicago would pay approximately $311 million in AGR and admissions taxes, or an effective rate of approximately 39% relative to AGR of $806 million. When combined with the 33 1/3% additional privilege tax on AGR specific for the City of Chicago casino, the effective tax rate is approximately 72%. AGR projections for all of the five sites result in a broadly similar effective tax rate.

It can be further expected that a casino’s operating expenses (e.g. advertising, marketing, payroll, rent, utilities, etc.) can easily approach the equivalent of 30% of AGR, if not higher. Combined with the effective tax rate of 72% yields an expense structure that could exceed casino revenue. Ultimately the additional privilege tax on AGR specific to the City of Chicago results in none of the five sites being financially feasible. The amount of profit generated relative to total development costs, inclusive of licensing and reconciliation fees, represents at best a 1% or 2% return annually, which is not an acceptable rate of return for a casino developer on a greenfield project. But for this incremental tax, any of the sites analyzed herein would likely have a profit margin broadly in line with the Illinois and regional casino peer group average in the low-to-mid 20% range. However, we believe a reasonable casino developer would not move forward with a greenfield casino project that has, at best, a low single digit profit margin.

To the extent a casino operator could pare down expenses and realize modest revenue and profits from non-gaming amenities (as we have projected herein), total enterprise profit margin would, in a best-case scenario, likely equate to a few pennies on the dollar – and that would require the casino to be developed without incurring any debt as we believe no traditional financing would be available for such a development as debt servicing would likely well exceed any modest profits generated. […]

Casino profit margins can’t support the special privilege tax

Noted above, it is not unreasonable to think that the operating expenses of a casino in Illinois could approximate 30% of AGR or higher. By way of example, and while Illinois casinos are not required to report detailed financial information publicly, we were able to calculate various financial margins for the Grand Victoria in Elgin that was recently sold. Based on press releases provided by the acquiring company, 2017 EBITDA was calculated to be approximately $36.4 million. Based on data available from the IGB, the casino generated $168.7 million in AGR in 2017 and paid $55.5 million in gaming and admissions taxes and fees. With these data points available, operating and other expenses can then be estimated at approximately $76.9 million, or 46% of AGR (and well above the 30% estimate above). […]

The absence of the special privilege tax would yield a profitable casino

Our analyses suggest that, at best, the highest earning of the five sites would operate on very thin profit margins of around 3%, which compares very unfavorably to the in-state and regional peers in the low-to-mid 20% range. In the absence of the special privilege tax on AGR specific to Chicago, the profitability of a casino in the City of Chicago would receive a material boost. While not all of the tax “savings” would drop to the bottom line in the event the special privilege tax is rescinded, most of it would. In this scenario, and while the casino would certainly allocate some of the savings to, for example, increased marketing efforts, the lack of the special privilege tax would allow a casino to operate with margins broadly in line with the in-state peers.

* Mayor Lightfoot has been claiming all along that the tax structure wouldn’t work. The latest from the Tribune…

With word on the odds of success for potential Chicago casino sites due this week, Mayor Lori Lightfoot said Monday she isn’t sure whether a gambling operator can make enough money given the upfront costs they must pay under the current state law.

Consultants at Union Gaming Analytics are expected to deliver their view of a city casino’s feasibility by Tuesday — and supercharge speculation about where a massive gambling hall could stand, and if it can make enough money to soften the city’s budget burden. […]

As it stands, state law would send one-third of a Chicago casino’s adjusted gross receipts to the city. Currently, the city casino operator also would have to pay a $250,000 application fee upfront, a $15 million “reconciliation” fee when the license is issued and up to $120 million in gambling position fees — which cost $30,000 each. […]

“We asked for the feasibility study, as you know, because we were very concerned that the tax structure that the legislature put in place was one that wouldn’t lend itself to funding of a casino,” the mayor told reporters Monday at City Hall.

*** UPDATE *** From Emily Bittner at the governor’s office…

This study provides valuable insights that will help make sure a Chicago casino works right for the both the city and state. We look forward to working with stakeholders, including the Mayor and General Assembly, to refine this approach and ensure that we maximize the opportunities for jobs for residents and revenue to address our financial obligations.