* As you probably know by now, the House adjourned yesterday without taking any action on the income tax hike…

The state income tax increase proposal first became public last Thursday still had not taken the form of a bill Sunday night that the Illinois General Assembly could consider. Sunday marked the passage of another 24-hour period without any public progress to report towards solving the state’s fiscal crisis.

House Speaker Michael Madigan left the well Sunday night without explaining what had gone wrong. He had called his chamber back to Springfield for a rare Sunday session to consider an income tax increase, but obviously to some, the majority Democrats had not convinced enough of their own members.

“I think the clock is ticking, and I think they’re scrambling to find votes,” said Rep. Jim Durkin, a Republican representing Western Springs.

* There was some talk behind closed doors…

The bid to raise Illinois’ income tax remained stalled Sunday as Gov. Quinn and top Democrats in the Legislature huddled privately to tweak the troubled package enough to win over a divided House Democratic caucus. […]

Quinn met with House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) and Senate President John Cullerton (D-Chicago) for more than 90 minutes, but none of Springfield’s ruling Democrats would answer questions about what was discussed or rate the likelihood of a revenue package passing before a noon Wednesday deadline.

* The Champaign News Gazette identified some of the possible tweaks…

[Rep. Naomi Jakobsson, D-Urbana] said the latest version of the income tax legislation she’s seen has the rate increase cut back from what was discussed last week. Instead of the individual rate increasing from 3 percent to 5.25 percent, it would rise to 4.75 percent, she said. The increase in the corporate rate would be smaller too.

If that’s the case, then the school increase might be out of the mix, as well as the property tax rebate.

* But the governor isn’t talking…

On Sunday, Quinn sought to avoid answering questions about the tax plan in a style reminiscent of his predecessor, disgraced ex- Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Quinn used back doors and hallways in the labyrinthine Capitol to escape the spotlight and attend to pre-inaugural festivities ahead of Monday’s swearing-in ceremony.

Quinn once again spent time behind closed doors with fellow Democrats House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton as the noon Wednesday deadline for quick action looms. Afterward, all Quinn would say was “we’re working hard” when asked about tax hike talks.

* Sending legislators home for the weekend with a tax hike vote hanging out there meant a whole lot of them came back to town more than a bit scared about what they’re being asked to do. The tax hike is just too high, the property tax relief is too low, and there are big concerns that not a single budget cut has been proposed.

Rep. Karen May talked to reporters yesterday after attempting to meet with the governor’s top budget staff. Rep. May said suburban legislators want no new spending or new programs and said one idea might be to nullify the income tax increase if spending caps are breached. Watch…

* Rep. Frank Mautino also wants no new spending…

Mautino said a cap on new spending, which would include no new money for education, would be more politically acceptable to downstate Democrats.

“There was a message in the last election and that message was that there has to be controls on spending,” he said.

* However, the governor doesn’t want “hard” spending caps…

Quinn doesn’t want the hard limit on state spending, arguing to Democratic leaders that he should have the flexibility to increase it, particularly for education, a source familiar with the discussions said.

* More rank and file react…

Legislators are quick to say there is little support for the current plan, and there is little agreement on a Plan B. State Rep Frank Mautino, D-Spring Valley, said hundreds of millions of dollars in new money for schools is as much of a problem as the 75 percent income tax increase.

“The main concern is that there can’t be any new spending. All of our members know that the structural deficit here is equal to a two percent income tax [hike].” […]

State Rep Mike Boland, D-East Moline, said his phone rang off the hook with complaints about the 75 percent hike.

“I’ve had hundreds of calls both to my office down here and district office, and even my home. And I’ve only had one call that was for a tax increase.” […]

[State Rep. Mike Tryon, R-Crystal Lake] said the ticking clock is getting loud.

“I think if it doesn’t pass by Tuesday it’s not gonna happen,” he said.

* The clock is definitely ticking. Democratic Rep. Jack Franks believes that, in the end, nothing will pass…

* The severe consequences of failure…

No one is certain what will happen if the tax increase package — or some permutation of it — does not pass now.

“You would have a continuation of deficit spending and borrowing, further deterioration of our bond ratings, and the image that we convey to businesses that might want to come here as that of instability,” Mr. Cullerton said grimly. “It would be disastrous.” […]

“We are very close to things becoming unraveled,” said Richard F. Dye, the co-author of a study released last week by a University of Illinois institute titled “Titanic and Sinking: The Illinois Budget Disaster.” The report suggested that doing nothing is simply no longer an alternative.

“It won’t take long,” Mr. Dye said, “for this backlog of bills to be so outrageous that people will not deal with the state.”

* That study can be found here…

Illinois’ fiscal problems are so enormous that no single option is going to balance the budget. Economic recovery will be slow, and even a dramatic decline in the unemployment rate would not come close to eliminating the deficit. Taking on even more debt is not a solution, because it just makes the fiscal situation worse in the future.

No single revenue increase—at least not any of plausible magnitude—will be sufficient to eliminate the $11.9 billion deficit projected for FY2012, much less the extra $13-15 billion deficit that includes the carry-over from imbalance in FY2009-2011.

We start so out of balance that even an absolute freeze on all spending will not achieve balance in a 10-year time horizon. Spending cuts would have to be of a magnitude that would shut down entire core functions of state government. Bringing Illinois to fiscal solvency will require state government to implement multiple and massive policy changes. If nothing is done soon, the state of Illinois faces a very bleak future.

No kidding.