*** UPDATE *** House Speaker Michael Madigan is throwing a bit of cold water on all this “mandate” talk by Gov. Quinn…

“If (the governor) has a mandate, it’s not a real strong mandate,” Mr. Madigan said, perhaps referring to near-solid opposition from Springfield Republicans to any tax hike without big spending cuts first.

But then Madigan went on to lay out how the governor might improve his tax package…

The way “is not only an increase in the tax for education funding,” as Mr. Quinn most recently has proposed. Rather, “my suggestion: Illinois has a severe budget deficit problem. The immediate need is bad. And the need is to pay the bills.”

Even with tax-producing economic growth and/or a modest income tax increase — Mr. Madigan didn’t mention a specific figure — it will take “three to five years to work out of our problem,” he said. The state’s cumulate budget hole is about $14 billion, according to state officials and watchdog groups.

“All we heard about in the campaign is that Illinois is running a big budget deficit,” Mr. Madigan concluded, returning to his main point. “We need to pay the bills.”

And that means a one percentage point income tax hike won’t be nearly enough.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Unlike others, I believe that Gov. Pat Quinn has at least some right to claim a limited mandate from last Tuesday. How many people ran for governor this year promising to increase income taxes and still won? I think he’s probably the only one. That took guts and he prevailed.

But the governor does not have the right to misstate the facts…

Quinn believes his win is a mandate for an income tax increase.

“I think that’s absolutely true,” Quinn said Friday. “The people understood my position and they voted for me. The majority carried the day. We’ll have to get more revenue to get Illinois to a better place.”

The “majority” voted for someone else, governor. Also, Bill Brady, Scott Lee Cohen and Lex Green all flatly opposed a tax hike. Total up their numbers and you get 51 percent.

Words matter, governor.

* Meanwhile, this free rides for seniors debacle is almost a perfect microcosm for how screwed up our politics have been in this state…

Offering little hope of new funding for buses and trains in the Chicago region, the state’s top legislative leaders from both parties agreed Monday on one point — free rides for senior citizens must be curtailed. […]

House Speaker Michael Madigan, D-Chicago, said he expects the General Assembly will roll back the free transit rides for seniors that former Gov. Rod Blagojevich insisted on in exchange for his support of a small sales-tax increase for mass transit in 2008.

“My expectation is that eventually we will go back to a system where those who are needy are the ones who get consideration on the fares on mass transit,'’ Madigan said at the fourth annual William Lipinski transportation policy symposium at Northwestern University.

Madigan’s key word there is “eventually.” That could mean next year, it could mean in 20 years. The longer the program remains in place, however, the tougher it’s gonna be to kill or modify.

Blagojevich used his amendatory veto powers to add the free rides provision. And even though people in both parties screamed bloody murder, the General Assembly didn’t dare knock down his AV. Seniors vote. And once you give them something, it’s politically dangerous to take it away.

The House has tried to come up with a compromise in the past to only give the free rides to the “truly needy,” but it’s been stopped in the Senate and Gov. Pat Quinn has threatened to veto it.

If they can reach a compromise in the coming months, then that could be a sign that the majority party is willing to stick their necks out on other items.

* Whether they’ll go this far is doubtful…

While the lawmakers said the growing state budget deficit will make bailing out the transit agencies a low priority in the next legislative session, Madigan expressed support for raising the state motor fuel tax.

“I think we ought to raise that tax,” Madigan said at the symposium.

Madigan was the chief co-sponsor of House Bill 1 last year, which would’ve increased the motor fuel tax by 8 cents per gallon. The money would’ve been used for capital projects, but the House Republicans refused to go along and pushed video gaming instead. Raising the fuel tax partially for mass transit would require one heck of a huge compromise with Downstate legislators, to say the least.

* And we still don’t know for sure how the governor’s income tax increase will play out. Back in late July, Gov. Quinn seemed to say that he would veto anything other than his one percentage point tax hike…

Quinn was attempting at the time to control the damage done by his budget director, who predicted to Bloomberg that the income tax would be hiked by two points in January, which would be double Quinn’s proposal.

* But a one point hike that includes property tax relief doesn’t do a whole lot to balance the state’s budget. And without further cuts, many legislators will be reticent to vote for any tax increase…

While [GOP Rep. Mike Tryon] expected the tax increase to come during the fall veto session starting Nov. 16, [Democratic Rep. Jack Franks] said he expected it in January, just prior to the new General Assembly being seated. He said he didn’t think it would be successful.

“They’re asking for more money, but to do it without cuts and while keeping the same problems? Nobody in their right mind would vote for that, so I don’t think [Quinn] will get it passed,” Franks said.

Franks will never vote for a tax hike no matter how much the budget is cut. But he may not be too far off with that prediction of his.

* There are those who are attempting to look at the local tea leaves to claim that the citizenry is opposed to higher taxes…

In this year’s election there were dozens of referenda on the ballot asking voters if they support or oppose local sales and/or property tax increases. Of the 37 tax increase referenda, only 16 passed. The levies were proposed to fund school facilities, municipal services, roadway construction, and other local government operations.

16 out of 37 is actually a pretty decent batting average, as far as recession-era tax hike referenda go. Hinsdale passed a sales tax increase, for example, as did Lake Zurich and even Macon County, where Bill Brady cleaned up. Even so, local sales and property tax referenda are different animals. I’m not sure there’s a direct comparison here.