* Larry has Charlie Cook’s change of ranking in the 10th CD…

IL-10 Mark Kirk Lean Republican to Toss Up

Most private polling shows Kirk up in the single digits, but that’s not anywhere near a comfortable position for a Republican incumbent in a district like this one and in a year like 2008. The key to this race may be the extent to which the DCCC or Democrat Dan Seals use taped endorsement messages from Sen. Barack Obama to get over the top.

Democrats would love nothing more than to knock Kirk out before he could become a serious Senate candidate in 2010 if Obama wins and an appointed Democratic successor is up for a full term. While Kirk can no longer be considered a clear favorite in the race, he remains in slightly better shape than some other GOP moderates in marginal districts.

GOP internals reportedly have Kirk up about 4 or 5 points. A Democratic poll is said to have Kirk down by a point. If there’s a big Obama wave, Kirk could very well get swept away. Remember, however, that there are thousands and thousands of ticket-splitters in that district.

* Immigrants appear to be a big part of the electorate in the 10th District…

Immigrants could be a deciding voting bloc in at least eight Illinois congressional races where they make up more than 12 percent of the population, according to a report released Thursday by an advocacy group.

Among the tightest races mentioned by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights is the 10th District, where Democrat Dan Seals is challenging Republican Rep. Mark Kirk. Experts say the longtime GOP district, which covers portions of Lake and Cook counties, could be trending Democratic based on recent presidential elections.

About 19 percent of the 10th District’s population is made up of foreign-born residents who are now U.S. citizens and at least 18 years old, making them eligible to vote, the report says. The group did not know how many of those individuals are registered to vote on Nov. 4.

* Meanwhile, Repub Martin Ozinga claims new polling shows a tight race, but he released no actual numbers to the Homer Horizon…

Ozinga’s campaign… now claims they are just two points behind Halvorson after they conducted a recent survey. Earlier polls had Halvorson leading by as many as 17 points.

* The AP has a story today about the role of Rod Blagojevich’s image in the Ozinga vs. Debbie Halvorson race…

Republican businessman Marty Ozinga repeatedly has knocked Democratic state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, of Crete, for being a bigwig in Blagojevich’s Democratic-controlled state government. But she has tried to turn the tables on Ozinga - with help from the DCCC.

Halvorson has criticized Ozinga for previously donating to the governor’s campaign - primarily a $10,000 donation in 2005. To drive home the point, the DCCC funded an ad that called Ozinga “the last guy you’d send to clean up Washington” and featured a sheepish picture of Blagojevich.

Blagojevich spokesman Lucio Guerrero said the governor is a convenient bad guy for candidates in the heat of an election.

“If people are frustrated, they take it out on the person that they know,” Guerrero said. “He’s the top guy, so it’s him.”

* Ozinga organized a counter-protest to the NRA’s endorsement announcement of Halvorson…

As reporters, NRA members and Halvorson supporters entered the Downers Grove Sportsmen’s Club for Halvorson’s press conference, they had to drive through a group of sign-toting Ozinga supporters.

The NRA was not impressed…

“Debbie has a record; she earned this rating,” said Todd Vandermyde, a legislative liaison with the NRA. “Marty Ozinga can talk all he wants, but (he) is an untested quantity. All we know is what he says.”

* And now Halvorson is mocking Ozinga on guns via a YouTube “ad”…

* In another race, Public Citizen has filed a complaint alleging that Peter Roskam misused the franking privilege…

The House’s franking commission is investigating whether Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.) violated franking rules, after the nonprofit group Public Citizen filed a complaint Thursday.

Members are prohibited from sending out official, unsolicited mail 90 days before an election. But Public Citizen alleges that Roskam sent out several brochures to his constituents after the Aug. 6 cutoff. […]

Roskam’s office didn’t immediately return calls for comment Thursday, but a spokeswoman for the Republicans on the House Administration Committee — which oversees the franking commission — said Public Citizen will have to prove that Roskam sent out more than 500 pieces of official mail. If it’s less than 500, the mail would not reach the threshold for a “mass mailing” and thus not fall under franking rules, other than for content. […]

“Right up into October, just weeks before the election, voters have been receiving two-page color mailers paid for by taxpayers, with Peter Roskam’s name splashed all over them,” Joan Claybrook, president of Public Citizen, said in a news release. “Taxpayers should not be footing the bill to advertise Roskam’s candidacy for Congress.”

The full complaint is here. [h/t: PI]

The Daily Herald endorsed Roskam’s opponent today.

* Republican Judy Biggert’s Democratic opponent has an unusual new TV ad…

…Adding… Biggert’s TV ads can be found at this link.

* More…

* GOP open seats fertile ground for House Democrats

* Voter registration hits record levels

* Cook County has more than 100,000 early votes

* Democratic U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean takes it easy against GOP challenger Steve Greenberg

* GOP challenger blasts Bean on mortgage legislation

* Our pick for Congress: Bean in 8th District

* 6th District campaign gets hotter

* For Congress: Retain Kirk in 10th District

* For Congress: Retain Foster in 14th District

* Our pick: Retain Manzullo in 16th District

* 2 Ill. races get large boosts from ind. groups

* Cong. Manzullo and his 16th CD Democratic Challenger, Robert Abboud on Cable this Saturday and Streaming