* We have two relatively recent polls from Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District contest.
* The Halvorson poll is slightly older. Taken September 14-16 of 500 likely voters, Halvorson’s poll shows her leading 43-35.
* Ozinga’s poll is more recent - Sept. 17-18 vs 14-16 - but the survey sample size is smaller - 400 likely voters vs. 500 likelies. It’s impossible to discern how each campaign is defining “likely” voters in their screens, so that could be one reason for the discrepancy. Ozinga claims Halvorson’s lead is just two points - 38-36.
* Judy Baar Topinka actually won the 11th District two years ago 50.3 to 49.7 by almost exactly a thousand votes over Rod Blagojevich. Considering she lost the state by about ten points, that’s pretty good for the GOPs. The following will give you an idea of how closely divided the district is. From the Halvorson pollster’s analysis…
The generic ballot in this district is virtually even (38% Democrat / 40% Republican). Those numbers are better than you’d expect in a Republican-held district
* From the Ozinga polling memo…
The Presidential ballot underscores the competitive nature of this district.
The Presidential ballot is a statistical tie (44% McCain/43% Obama) in an open seat district in Obama’s home state.
* And here’s some back and forth on TV messaging. From Halvorson…
Halvorson’s television buy is doing a good job of expanding her personal popularity, but she needs the resources to sustain it. She currently receives a 38% favorable / 20% unfavorable rating – an increase of 14 points in her favorable rating since May. While Halvorson’s ratio of favorables to unfavorables is nearly 2:1, Ozinga’s unfavorable rating is nearly as high as his favorable rating (28% favorable / 22% unfavorable).
* Ozinga…
Despite significant spending on the part of the Halvorson campaign, Debbie Halvorson holds a tenuous two point lead on the ballot (36% Ozinga/38% Halvorson). This represents a net 15 point improvement for Ozinga since our April survey (26% Ozinga/43% Halvorson) and a net five point improvement since August (33% Ozinga/40% Halvorson).
* Halvorson’s slightly earlier poll showed no movement…
Halvorson has maintained her vote share since May (43% Halvorson / 32% Ozinga). The small amount of movement in Ozinga’s vote is within the poll’s margin of error, in spite of his strong spending on television ads (more than $400,000) and his extensive direct mail
program, which has included more than ten pieces and has been heavily negative.
* Ozinga’s poll did show movement. Lots of it…
Since April, Halvorson has dropped five points (43% to 38%) and Ozinga has climbed ten (26% to 36%). In addition, John McCain is holding his own in IL-11, despite Obama’s favorite son status in Illinois.
* Halvorson’s poll included the Green Party candidate…
Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 43% to 35% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 6%.
* There was no reference to Wallace in the Ozinga press release, but Gov. Blagojevich rated a mention…
Halvorson’s negative attacks on Marty Ozinga have not improved her ballot numbers and have instead reinforced her image as a typical politician who is inexorably tied to the incredibly unpopular Rod Blagojevich (15% fav/72% unfav).
* Halvorson poll methodology…
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between September 14-16, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.
* Ozinga poll methodology…
Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey among 400 likely voters in Illinois’ 11th Congressional District. The survey was conducted September 17-18, 2008 and has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
